Tilly's (TLYS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.72 | Market Cap: $51.8 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel Retail
Tilly's (TLYS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.72Market Cap: $51.8 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Apparel Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -66% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -130%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -154% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -48 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8.8% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Experiential Retail. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 14.16 | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 308% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.1% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.8%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.8% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -114% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 105% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -66% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Experiential Retail. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -130%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -154% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 14.16 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -48 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8.8% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 308% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.1% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.8%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.8% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -114% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 105% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TLYS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For Tilly's (TLYS), the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, saw the company report its fiscal third-quarter 2025 earnings on December 3, 2025. These results, which included a narrower-than-expected loss and positive comparable net sales growth, led to a significant surge in the stock price, with shares jumping between 13.9% and 26%. Therefore, a -8.6% stock movement for this specific timeframe is not indicated by the most recent available information.
However, historical financial performance and ongoing challenges faced by Tilly's in the broader preceding periods could explain a negative stock movement of a similar magnitude. Key points for such a decline would typically include:
1. Declining Net Sales: Tilly's experienced a decrease in net sales in prior periods, with fiscal year 2024 revenue decreasing by 8.61% compared to the previous year. Total net sales in the third quarter of fiscal 2024 also decreased by 13.8% compared to the prior year.
2. Negative Operating and Net Margins: The company has faced operating losses and negative net margins in recent financial reports, reflecting operational inefficiencies and struggles to achieve consistent profitability. In Q3 2024, Tilly's reported an operating loss of $35.7 million and a net loss of $32.6 million.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TLYS Return | -25% | 124% | -44% | -17% | -44% | -65% | -85% |
| Peers Return | -0% | 30% | -23% | 21% | 7% | 19% | 52% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TLYS Win Rate | 50% | 75% | 25% | 33% | 25% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 67% | 38% | 55% | 47% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TLYS Max Drawdown | -67% | 0% | -58% | -30% | -57% | -84% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -66% | -10% | -43% | -31% | -22% | -34% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GAP, GES, ZUMZ, GCO, TJX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TLYS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -61.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 161.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -70.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 239.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 343 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -69.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 229.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to GAP, GES, ZUMZ, GCO, TJX
In The Past
Tilly's's stock fell -61.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -61.7% loss requires a 161.4% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Can Tilly's Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TLYS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Tilly's
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 27.30 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.7 |
| Rev LTM | 2,727 |
| Op Inc LTM | 78 |
| FCF LTM | 16 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 73 |
| CFO LTM | 90 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 141 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 2.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.7 |
| P/S | 0.2 |
| P/EBIT | 11.4 |
| P/E | 14.5 |
| P/CFO | 6.4 |
| Total Yield | 2.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| D/E | 1.8 |
| Net D/E | 1.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 18.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 9.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 48.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 7.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 13.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 18.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 33.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 0.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -57.2% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retailer of casual apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods | 623 | 672 | |||
| Accessories | 124 | 80 | 111 | ||
| Boys | 39 | 27 | 37 | ||
| Footwear | 85 | 64 | 74 | ||
| Girls | 31 | 21 | 25 | ||
| Mens | 295 | 191 | 223 | ||
| Womens | 202 | 143 | 149 | ||
| Hardgoods/Outdoor | 5 | ||||
| Total | 623 | 672 | 776 | 531 | 619 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retailer of casual apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods | -31 | 11 | |||
| Total | -31 | 11 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retailer of casual apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods | -34 | 10 | |||
| Total | -34 | 10 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9042025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6052025 | 10-Q 5/3/2025 |
| 1312025 | 4102025 | 10-K 2/1/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12062024 | 10-Q 11/2/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9062024 | 10-Q 8/3/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6072024 | 10-Q 5/4/2024 |
| 1312024 | 4112024 | 10-K 2/3/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12012023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9012023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6052023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 4132023 | 10-K 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12072022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9062022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6092022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 4142022 | 10-K 1/29/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12072021 | 10-Q 10/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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