Tearsheet

Tilly's (TLYS)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.72 | Market Cap: $51.8 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel Retail

Tilly's (TLYS)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.72
Market Cap: $51.8 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Apparel Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -66%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -130%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -154%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -48 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8.8%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Experiential Retail.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 14.16
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 308%
2   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.1%
3   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.8%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.8%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -114%
5   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 105%
0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -66%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Experiential Retail.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -130%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -154%
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 14.16
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -48 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8.8%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 308%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.1%
7 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.8%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.8%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -114%
9 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 105%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TLYS Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

For Tilly's (TLYS), the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, saw the company report its fiscal third-quarter 2025 earnings on December 3, 2025. These results, which included a narrower-than-expected loss and positive comparable net sales growth, led to a significant surge in the stock price, with shares jumping between 13.9% and 26%. Therefore, a -8.6% stock movement for this specific timeframe is not indicated by the most recent available information. However, historical financial performance and ongoing challenges faced by Tilly's in the broader preceding periods could explain a negative stock movement of a similar magnitude. Key points for such a decline would typically include:

1. Declining Net Sales: Tilly's experienced a decrease in net sales in prior periods, with fiscal year 2024 revenue decreasing by 8.61% compared to the previous year. Total net sales in the third quarter of fiscal 2024 also decreased by 13.8% compared to the prior year.

2. Negative Operating and Net Margins: The company has faced operating losses and negative net margins in recent financial reports, reflecting operational inefficiencies and struggles to achieve consistent profitability. In Q3 2024, Tilly's reported an operating loss of $35.7 million and a net loss of $32.6 million.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TLYS Return-25%124%-44%-17%-44%-65%-85%
Peers Return-0%30%-23%21%7%19%52%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TLYS Win Rate50%75%25%33%25%40% 
Peers Win Rate60%67%38%55%47%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TLYS Max Drawdown-67%0%-58%-30%-57%-84% 
Peers Max Drawdown-66%-10%-43%-31%-22%-34% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GAP, GES, ZUMZ, GCO, TJX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTLYSS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-61.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven161.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-70.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven239.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven343 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-69.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven229.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days

Compare to GAP, GES, ZUMZ, GCO, TJX


In The Past

Tilly's's stock fell -61.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -61.7% loss requires a 161.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Tilly's (TLYS)

Better Bets than Tilly's (TLYS)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleTopic
0DASHBOARDS 
1Can Tilly's Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn?Return
Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TLYS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Tilly's

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TLYSGAPGESZUMZGCOTJXMedian
NameTilly's Gap Guess Zumiez Genesco TJX Comp. 
Mkt Price1.8026.8517.1327.7535.25150.0627.30
Mkt Cap0.110.00.90.50.4167.30.7
Rev LTM55015,1663,0929002,36257,9252,727
Op Inc LTM-481,1661403166,47678
FCF LTM-277691313194,04116
FCF 3Y Avg-23938126-2204,35873
CFO LTM-211,21510127795,93590
CFO 3Y Avg-121,38020717766,145141

Growth & Margins

TLYSGAPGESZUMZGCOTJXMedian
NameTilly's Gap Guess Zumiez Genesco TJX Comp. 
Rev Chg LTM-11.1%-0.0%7.8%1.6%2.7%4.1%2.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-8.7%-1.3%4.9%-5.4%-0.3%5.3%-0.8%
Rev Chg Q-7.1%0.1%5.5%1.9%4.0%6.9%3.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.1%0.0%1.3%0.5%0.9%1.6%0.7%
Op Mgn LTM-8.8%7.7%4.5%0.3%0.7%11.2%2.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-5.5%5.2%6.9%-2.1%1.0%10.7%3.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.4%-0.0%-0.6%0.1%-0.2%0.2%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM-3.8%8.0%3.3%3.0%3.4%10.2%3.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-2.2%9.1%7.3%1.9%3.3%11.2%5.3%
FCF/Rev LTM-4.8%5.1%0.4%1.4%0.8%7.0%1.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-3.9%6.2%4.5%-0.2%0.9%8.0%2.7%

Valuation

TLYSGAPGESZUMZGCOTJXMedian
NameTilly's Gap Guess Zumiez Genesco TJX Comp. 
Mkt Cap0.110.00.90.50.4167.30.7
P/S0.10.50.20.20.12.40.2
P/EBIT-0.96.48.381.014.520.611.4
P/E-0.99.219.9381.1-8.427.714.5
P/CFO-2.06.76.18.32.623.26.4
Total Yield-109.6%10.9%15.4%0.3%-12.0%4.9%2.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%10.4%0.0%0.0%1.3%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-29.0%16.3%12.3%-0.2%8.1%3.7%5.9%
D/E4.30.72.60.92.90.11.8
Net D/E3.10.42.30.52.70.11.4

Returns

TLYSGAPGESZUMZGCOTJXMedian
NameTilly's Gap Guess Zumiez Genesco TJX Comp. 
1M Rtn20.8%17.7%0.7%28.2%18.9%7.2%18.3%
3M Rtn-11.3%19.8%3.2%58.2%11.6%7.9%9.7%
6M Rtn38.5%29.6%60.3%120.6%58.1%17.9%48.3%
12M Rtn-59.5%7.4%8.5%23.1%-4.5%21.8%7.9%
3Y Rtn-81.8%103.3%7.0%19.6%-22.7%95.1%13.3%
1M Excs Rtn20.8%17.7%0.7%28.3%18.9%7.2%18.3%
3M Excs Rtn-19.6%7.7%-2.4%45.1%-0.7%1.4%0.3%
6M Excs Rtn23.7%14.9%45.6%105.9%43.4%3.2%33.6%
12M Excs Rtn-73.3%0.6%0.3%12.2%-8.6%7.3%0.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-153.8%37.6%-60.0%-54.5%-105.9%22.7%-57.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Retailer of casual apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods623672   
Accessories  12480111
Boys  392737
Footwear  856474
Girls  312125
Mens  295191223
Womens  202143149
Hardgoods/Outdoor   5 
Total623672776531619


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Retailer of casual apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods-3111   
Total-3111   


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Retailer of casual apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods-3410   
Total-3410   


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity658,899
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120253.2%
Average Daily Volume46,519
Days-to-Cover Short Interest14.16
Basic Shares Quantity30,091,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
7312025904202510-Q 8/2/2025
4302025605202510-Q 5/3/2025
1312025410202510-K 2/1/2025
103120241206202410-Q 11/2/2024
7312024906202410-Q 8/3/2024
4302024607202410-Q 5/4/2024
1312024411202410-K 2/3/2024
103120231201202310-Q 10/28/2023
7312023901202310-Q 7/29/2023
4302023605202310-Q 4/29/2023
1312023413202310-K 1/28/2023
103120221207202210-Q 10/29/2022
7312022906202210-Q 7/30/2022
4302022609202210-Q 4/30/2022
1312022414202210-K 1/29/2022
103120211207202110-Q 10/30/2021