Tilly's (TLYS)
Market Price (5/24/2026): $4.21 | Market Cap: $126.8 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel Retail
Tilly's (TLYS)
Market Price (5/24/2026): $4.21Market Cap: $126.8 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Apparel Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Experiential Retail. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -69%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -125% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -19 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.5% Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 95% Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 32x Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 247%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 402% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.2% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 115% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17% High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 107% Key risksTLYS key risks include [1] a sustained trend of declining sales and profitability driven by difficulties in meeting the demands of its core youth demographic and [2] compounding operational issues related to merchandising and inventory management. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Experiential Retail. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -69%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -125% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -19 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.5% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 95% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 32x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 247%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 402% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.2% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 115% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 107% |
| Key risksTLYS key risks include [1] a sustained trend of declining sales and profitability driven by difficulties in meeting the demands of its core youth demographic and [2] compounding operational issues related to merchandising and inventory management. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Fiscal 2025 Fourth Quarter Performance Significantly Exceeded Expectations.
Tilly's reported its first profitable fourth quarter since fiscal 2021 for the period ended January 31, 2026. The company announced total net sales of $155.1 million, an increase of 5.3% year-over-year, surpassing analyst estimates of $148.7 million. Comparable net sales rose by 10.1%, and diluted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.10, significantly beating analyst estimates of a -$0.15 loss per share. This strong performance, released on March 11, 2026, resulted in a substantial stock price increase, with the stock jumping 63.2% on the news.
2. Optimistic Fiscal 2026 First Quarter Guidance Indicated Continued Positive Momentum.
Following the strong fourth-quarter results, Tilly's provided robust guidance for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 (ending May 2, 2026). The company projected net sales in the range of $119 million to $125 million, exceeding analyst estimates of $106.5 million. This guidance also included a forecast for comparable net sales growth between 16% and 22% and an estimated product margin improvement of 310-330 basis points compared to the prior-year quarter.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 195.2% change in TLYS stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 191.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.47 | 4.34 | 195.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 546 | 554 | 1.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.2 | 191.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 30 | 30 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 195.2% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TLYS | 195.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.1% | -15.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.4% | -12.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 183.7% change in TLYS stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 181.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.53 | 4.34 | 183.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 550 | 554 | 0.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.2 | 181.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 30 | 30 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 183.7% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TLYS | 183.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | -9.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.3% | -6.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 183.7% change in TLYS stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 192.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.53 | 4.34 | 183.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 569 | 554 | -2.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.2 | 192.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 30 | 30 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 183.7% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TLYS | 183.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 36.0% | 6.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 21.8% | 4.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -42.2% change in TLYS stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -29.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.51 | 4.34 | -42.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 672 | 554 | -17.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 0.2 | -29.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 30 | 30 | -1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -42.2% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TLYS | -42.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.3% | 13.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | 65.2% | 12.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TLYS Return | 124% | -44% | -17% | -44% | -53% | 114% | -41% |
| Peers Return | 43% | -28% | 80% | 23% | 27% | -18% | 138% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TLYS Win Rate | 75% | 25% | 33% | 25% | 42% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 33% | 62% | 50% | 58% | 36% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TLYS Max Drawdown | -20% | -59% | -32% | -58% | -85% | -33% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -52% | -34% | -31% | -41% | -31% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ZUMZ, ANF, AEO, URBN, BKE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TLYS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -82.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 454.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 313 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -19.7% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.5% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 16 days | 18 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -50.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 102.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 154 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -42.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 893 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -38.3% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.0% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 292 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -28.3% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.6% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 109 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Tilly's's stock fell -82.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 454.6% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | TLYS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -82.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 454.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 313 days | 79 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -50.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 102.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 154 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -42.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 893 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -38.3% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.0% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 292 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -28.3% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.6% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 109 days | 15 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -26.2% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.5% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 430 days | 1 days |
In The Past
Tilly's's stock fell -82.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 454.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Tilly's (TLYS)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Tilly's:
- Like a mix of American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) and Zumiez (ZUMZ).
- A Zumiez (ZUMZ) that also carries a broader selection of mainstream casual apparel.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Casual Apparel: Sells tops, outerwear, bottoms, and dresses for young men, women, boys, and girls.
- Footwear: Offers a variety of shoes and boots to its target demographic.
- Accessories: Provides items such as backpacks, hats, sunglasses, small electronics, handbags, and jewelry.
- Hardgoods: Includes products like skateboards, longboards, bikes, roller-skates, and equipment for snowboarding and surfing.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Tilly's (TLYS) is a specialty retailer that sells primarily to individual consumers rather than other businesses. Based on the company description, its customer base can be categorized as:
- Young Men and Women: This category encompasses the primary demographic for much of their casual apparel, footwear, and accessories.
- Boys and Girls: Tilly's also caters to a younger demographic, providing apparel and other merchandise for children and adolescents.
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Nate Smith, President and Chief Executive Officer
Nate Smith joined Tillys as President and Chief Executive Officer in August 2025. Prior to this role, he served as Chief Executive Officer of Marolina Outdoor, Inc. since September 2024. From June 2017 to April 2024, Mr. Smith was the President, Americas, at Boardriders, Inc. His background also includes executive positions at Oakley, Inc., where he was Vice President/General Manager, North American Wholesale, and Vice President, Oakley Defense. He has also held executive roles at IPATH Footwear, MV Transportation, Inc., and Patagonia, Inc., following eight years of service in the United States Navy.
Michael Henry, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Michael Henry became Tillys' Chief Financial Officer in June 2015 and has served as Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer since September 2019. Before joining Tillys, Mr. Henry was the Senior Vice President, Global Controller at Quiksilver, Inc. from July 2012 to May 2015. He spent over a decade at Pacific Sunwear of California, Inc., where his roles included Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer from January 2008 to April 2011. Earlier in his career, he worked in the audit practice of Deloitte & Touche LLP from September 1994 to September 2000. Mr. Henry is a certified public accountant (inactive).
Hezy Shaked, Co-Founder, Executive Chairman, and Chief Strategy Officer
Hezy Shaked co-founded the Tilly's concept in 1982 and established the company in 1984. He currently serves as Executive Chairman and Chief Strategy Officer, a role he transitioned into in August 2025 from President and Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Shaked has held various leadership positions within Tillys, including President and Chief Executive Officer from inception to September 2006, Co-Chief Executive Officer from September 2006 to September 2008, and President and Chief Executive Officer from September 2008 to February 2011. He has over 30 years of experience in the retail industry.
Michael Cingolani, Chief Merchandising Officer
Michael Cingolani was promoted to Chief Merchandising Officer. He previously served as Senior Vice President, General Merchandising Manager since November 2024, and as Senior Director, Divisional Merchandise Manager, Men's and Boys Apparel, since August 2024. Prior to rejoining Tillys, he was at rue21 from May 2019 to May 2024, including serving as Chief Merchandising Officer from July 2022. Mr. Cingolani had a prior tenure at Tillys as Divisional Merchandise Manager, Men's and Boys Branded Apparel and Fashion Tops, for five years. He also held buying positions at Foot Locker, Inc., Pacific Sunwear, Kohl's Corp, and American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.
Shelly Bueno-Johnson, Vice President of Stores
Shelly Bueno-Johnson has served as Tillys' Vice President of Stores since November 2006. Before this, she was the Director of Stores from April 2006 and Director of Training and Development from January 2004. Ms. Bueno-Johnson also held various management positions at The Wet Seal from 1989 to 2003, with her last role there being Director of Training and Development.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to Tilly's (TLYS) business:- Consumer Spending Environment and Economic Downturns: As a specialty retailer of discretionary items, Tilly's is highly susceptible to fluctuations in consumer spending. Management has identified the broader consumer spending environment as a key external risk, noting that a decline in discretionary retail spending would make it challenging to sustain double-digit comparable sales growth. The company's business model, particularly its larger store format, leads to higher overhead, making it more vulnerable during economic downturns compared to competitors with smaller store footprints.
- Intense Competition and Shifting Consumer Preferences: Tilly's operates in a highly competitive retail landscape, facing pressure from online retailers, other brick-and-mortar stores, and even the brands it carries that are increasingly selling directly to consumers. The company's ability to effectively respond to evolving customer preferences and fashion trends, as well as attract customer traffic to both its physical stores and e-commerce platform, is crucial for its success. A significant portion of Tilly's sales is still derived from physical stores, making it vulnerable to the ongoing decline in mall traffic across the United States.
- Inventory Management and Profitability Challenges: Tilly's has historically faced difficulties with inventory management, which has led to significant markdowns and negatively impacted its profit margins. While the company has made efforts to improve inventory discipline, the risk of these challenges re-emerging remains. The company has also struggled with profitability, reporting negative operating and net margins in the past, and requires substantial comparable sales increases to achieve full-year profitability. Additionally, factors such as inflation and rising labor and operating costs continue to put pressure on the company's margins.
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- The rapid growth of ultra-fast fashion retailers (e.g., Shein, Temu) offering trendy apparel at significantly lower price points and with faster product cycles, directly competing for Tilly's target demographic.
- The proliferation of direct-to-consumer (DTC) brands leveraging social media and influencer marketing to sell apparel, footwear, and accessories directly to consumers, bypassing traditional multi-brand retailers like Tilly's and potentially eroding their market share and relevance.
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The addressable markets for Tilly's main products and services in the United States are substantial, reflecting the diverse categories the company operates within.Apparel
- The U.S. clothing and apparel market was valued at approximately USD 370.4 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 482.1 billion by 2032, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.5% during the period of 2025–2032. Casual wear is the leading category within this market, holding a 75% share.
- Specifically, the United States casual wear market was worth USD 196.22 billion in 2024 and is forecasted to achieve USD 266.47 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 3.48% from 2026–2033. The U.S. accounted for approximately 84% of the North American casual wear market in 2024.
- The United States kids wear market was valued at USD 6.53 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 10.68 billion by 2030, demonstrating a CAGR of 8.60% during the forecast period. Another estimate for the U.S. baby and children's clothing market size was around USD 40.21 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 43.92 billion by 2032 with a CAGR of about 1.27% during 2026–2032.
Footwear
- The U.S. shoe and footwear market size was USD 95.1 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow by 3.7% from 2025-2032, reaching USD 125.7 billion by 2032.
- Another report indicates the United States footwear market was valued at USD 97.16 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 121.30 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 2.50% from 2026-2034.
- The U.S. athletic footwear market was valued at approximately USD 15 billion in 2023. This segment is forecast to increase by USD 8.51 billion at a CAGR of 5.4% between 2024 and 2029.
Accessories
- The U.S. fashion accessories market size was USD 223.2 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach around USD 477.4 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 7.9% from 2025 to 2034.
- Another source estimates the U.S. fashion accessories market generated a revenue of USD 222,074.1 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 342,988.5 million by 2030, with a CAGR of 7.8% from 2025 to 2030.
- The United States personal accessories market was valued at USD 97.47 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to grow to USD 158.04 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 8.45% during the forecast period.
Hardgoods
- **Skateboards & Longboards:** The United States skateboard market was valued at USD 1.23 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 1.48 billion by 2030, rising at a CAGR of 3.13%. Another report estimates the skate board market size at USD 1,578.45 million in 2024, projected to reach USD 3,267.89 million by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 8.12% from 2025 to 2032. The U.S. is identified as the leading country in the skateboard market with a 22.4% share.
- **Bikes:** The U.S. bike market size was estimated at USD 14.75 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 24.28 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 5.9% from 2025 to 2033. Another source indicates the market for bicycles in the United States is expected to expand from US$ 15.84 billion in 2024 to US$ 22.01 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 3.72% from 2025 to 2033.
- **Roller-skates:** The United States roller skating market size was USD 184.0 million in 2025. The U.S. is projected to reach USD 722.7 million by 2034 within the broader roller sports product market.
- **Snowboarding Equipment:** The U.S. skiing and snowboarding market size was estimated at USD 5.53 billion in 2023. While this includes more than just equipment, the USA is considered the largest single-country snowboard equipment market. The global snowboard equipment market size was estimated at USD 360.7 million in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 544.3 million by 2033. North America accounted for over 41% of all global snowboard equipment sales by unit volume in 2024.
- **Surfing Equipment:** The surfing equipment market in the United States generated a revenue of USD 1,545.2 million in 2020 and is expected to reach USD 2,109.5 million by 2028, with a CAGR of 4% from 2021 to 2028. North America's surfing market was estimated at USD 1.72 billion in 2024, with the United States accounting for approximately USD 1.35 billion, representing nearly 78.5% of the regional value.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlTilly's (TLYS) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key strategic initiatives:
- Enhanced Merchandise Assortment and Pricing Strategies: Tilly's management has emphasized ongoing improvements in its merchandise assortment and refinement of pricing strategies as critical for future growth. The company anticipates further growth from these efforts, which have already contributed to recent positive performance.
- Strategic Digital Marketing and Customer Engagement: The company plans to leverage enhanced digital marketing efforts to increase customer engagement. Recent success, including growth in its TikTok following and a reversal in loyalty program declines, indicates the effectiveness of refreshed marketing strategies in attracting and retaining customers.
- Selective Store Expansion: Following a period of store closures, Tilly's is shifting towards a disciplined strategy of opening new stores. The company plans to open four to six new stores in fiscal 2026, signaling confidence in improved unit economics and a move toward cautious physical expansion to drive revenue.
- Technology Investments for Operational Efficiency and Product Allocation: Tilly's is investing in technology, including an AI-driven merchandise allocation tool, to enhance product placement, reduce stockouts, and improve overall operational efficiencies. Additionally, improved price optimization tools and investments in warehouse management software are expected to contribute to better margins, which can support more competitive offerings and ultimately drive revenue.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Tilly's made share repurchases of $8.15 million in April 2022.
- The company also repurchased $868,090 in July 2022 and $1.88 million in October 2022.
Share Issuance
- The number of shares outstanding for Tilly's increased by 0.32% in one year.
- Weighted average shares were 30.0 million in fiscal 2024 compared to 29.8 million shares in fiscal 2023.
Outbound Investments
- Tilly's reported $25.83 million in investment in securities for fiscal year 2025.
- For fiscal year 2024, the company's investment in securities was $23.95 million, and in fiscal year 2022, it was $57.92 million.
Capital Expenditures
- Total capital expenditures for fiscal 2025 were $4.7 million, a decrease from $8.2 million in fiscal 2024 and $14.0 million in fiscal 2023.
- For the upcoming fiscal year (fiscal 2026), Tilly's expects capital expenditures of no more than $8 million to $9 million.
- The primary focus for capital expenditures includes technology upgrades, such as new price-optimization tools, an upgraded warehouse management system, and planned AI-driven merchandise allocation and RFID technology, as well as initiatives for store labor efficiencies and assortment renewal.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Tilly's Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| With Tilly's Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 36.64 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.6 |
| Rev LTM | 3,282 |
| Op Inc LTM | 295 |
| FCF LTM | 201 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 246 |
| CFO LTM | 354 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 377 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 18.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 25.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.6 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/Op Inc | 9.0 |
| P/EBIT | 9.0 |
| P/E | 13.0 |
| P/CFO | 8.6 |
| Total Yield | 7.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -9.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 6.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 44.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 74.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -11.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -14.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -3.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 18.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -12.4% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retailer of casual apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods | 623 | ||||
| Accessories | 108 | 124 | 80 | 111 | |
| Boys | 27 | 39 | 27 | 37 | |
| Footwear | 81 | 85 | 64 | 74 | |
| Girls | 27 | 31 | 21 | 25 | |
| Mens | 255 | 287 | 191 | 223 | |
| Womens | 175 | 202 | 143 | 149 | |
| Hardgoods/Outdoor | 8 | 5 | |||
| Total | 623 | 672 | 776 | 531 | 619 |
| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retailer of casual apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods | -31 | ||||
| Total | -31 |
| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retailer of casual apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods | -34 | ||||
| Total | -34 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $4.34 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/04/2012 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -19.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $4.23 | $2.30 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 2.5% | 88.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 126.3% | 107.6% |
| Downside Capture | -439.00 | -128.96 |
| Upside Capture | 115.87 | 102.05 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -19.1% | 3.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.31 | -2.03 | -1.24 | -0.64 | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| Up Beta | 0.70 | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.42 | 1.43 | 0.77 |
| Down Beta | 18.01 | -7.63 | -5.87 | -2.61 | 0.66 | 0.76 |
| Up Capture | 60% | 161% | 132% | 87% | 84% | 17% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 31 | 40 | 64 | 116 | 330 |
| Down Capture | 1117% | -728% | -406% | -208% | -20% | 97% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 6 | 10 | 20 | 52 | 116 | 380 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TLYS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLYS | 482.8% | 107.3% | 2.10 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 13.6% | 18.2% | 0.56 | 2.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.5% | 12.0% | 1.86 | 2.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 35.5% | 26.8% | 1.11 | -11.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 42.9% | 18.7% | 1.77 | 6.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 15.2% | 13.1% | 0.82 | 7.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -31.3% | 41.8% | -0.78 | 5.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TLYS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLYS | -15.8% | 69.0% | 0.03 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 7.8% | 23.7% | 0.29 | 23.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.0% | 0.64 | 22.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.8% | 18.0% | 0.85 | -5.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.4% | 19.4% | 0.42 | 5.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.8% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 21.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.6% | 55.3% | 0.41 | 8.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TLYS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLYS | 2.6% | 65.2% | 0.31 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 13.0% | 22.0% | 0.54 | 30.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.7% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 29.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.0% | 16.0% | 0.67 | -6.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 17.9% | 0.35 | 10.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 28.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.7% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 9.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/11/2026 | 47.2% | 119.0% | 209.8% |
| 12/3/2025 | -1.7% | 5.6% | 11.1% |
| 9/3/2025 | 3.4% | -3.0% | -1.5% |
| 6/4/2025 | 12.3% | -6.2% | 11.5% |
| 3/12/2025 | -20.0% | -25.5% | -45.8% |
| 12/5/2024 | -3.7% | -19.6% | 0.2% |
| 9/5/2024 | -4.4% | 1.7% | -2.1% |
| 6/6/2024 | -3.1% | -9.8% | -4.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| # Negative | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 8.8% | 11.8% | 15.0% |
| Median Negative | -3.7% | -7.3% | -7.8% |
| Max Positive | 47.2% | 119.0% | 209.8% |
| Max Negative | -20.0% | -25.5% | -45.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 01/31/2026 | 04/09/2026 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2025 | 12/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 09/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 06/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 04/10/2025 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 09/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 06/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 04/11/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 12/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 09/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 04/13/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 09/06/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 06/09/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 119.00 Mil | 122.00 Mil | 125.00 Mil | -17.8% | Lower New | Actual: 148.50 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Comparable Net Sales Growth | 16.0% | 19.0% | 22.0% | 216.7% | 13.0% | Higher New | Actual: 6.0% for Q4 2025 |
| Q1 2026 Product Margin Improvement | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | -1.5% | -0.0% | Lower New | Actual: 3.25% for Q4 2025 |
| Q1 2026 SG&A Expenses | 44.00 Mil | 44.50 Mil | 45.00 Mil | -11.9% | Lower New | Actual: 50.50 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Net Loss | -10.10 Mil | -9.05 Mil | -8.00 Mil | 98.9% | Lower New | Actual: -4.55 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 EPS | -0.34 | -0.3 | -0.27 | 96.8% | Lower New | Actual: -0.15 for Q4 2025 | |
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 12/3/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Revenue | 146.00 Mil | 148.50 Mil | 151.00 Mil | Higher New | |||
| Q4 2025 Comparable Net Sales Growth | 4.0% | 6.0% | 8.0% | Higher New | |||
| Q4 2025 Product Margin Improvement | 3.0% | 3.25% | 3.5% | Higher New | |||
| Q4 2025 SG&A Expenses | 50.00 Mil | 50.50 Mil | 51.00 Mil | Higher New | |||
| Q4 2025 Net Loss | -5.60 Mil | -4.55 Mil | -3.50 Mil | Higher New | |||
| Q4 2025 EPS | -0.19 | -0.15 | -0.12 | Higher New | |||
| 2025 Store Count | 223 | Higher New | |||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shay, Capital Llc | Direct | Sell | 3242026 | 3.70 | 20,000 | 74,074 | 8,574,066 | Form | |
| 2 | Shay, Capital Llc | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 2.55 | 1,025,000 | 2,616,005 | 5,959,387 | Form | |
| 3 | Shay, Capital Llc | Direct | Buy | 8122025 | 1.29 | 25,000 | 32,305 | 4,341,792 | Form | |
| 4 | Shay, Capital Llc | Direct | Buy | 8122025 | 1.42 | 35,000 | 49,774 | 4,742,704 | Form | |
| 5 | Shay, Capital Llc | Direct | Buy | 7302025 | 1.90 | 25,000 | 47,512 | 6,271,650 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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