Arcadia Biosciences (RKDA)
Market Price (7/8/2026): $0.6758 | Market Cap: $1.4 MilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Arcadia Biosciences (RKDA)
Market Price (7/8/2026): $0.6758Market Cap: $1.4 MilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -255% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -45% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Agricultural Biotechnology, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -114%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -153% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Penny stockMkt Price is 0.7 Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -9.6 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -201% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -10%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.3% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -89%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -89% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -644% High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 101% Key risksRKDA key risks include [1] a high probability of financial distress and limited cash runway, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -255% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -45% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Agricultural Biotechnology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -114%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -153% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Penny stockMkt Price is 0.7 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -9.6 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -201% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -10%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.3% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -89%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -89% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -644% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 101% |
| Key risksRKDA key risks include [1] a high probability of financial distress and limited cash runway, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 7/1/2026
Arcadia Biosciences (RKDA) stock has lost about 50% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Deterioration in Fiscal Q1 2026 Financial Performance.
Arcadia Biosciences reported a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $4.4 million for fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), a substantial decrease from a $2.6 million net income in fiscal Q1 2025, representing a 269% decline. The company also missed analyst earnings per share (EPS) estimates by 163.75%, reporting an EPS of -$2.11 against an estimated -$0.80. This decline was compounded by an 8% year-over-year decrease in total revenue to $1.1 million and a $1.2 million increase in total operating expenses in fiscal Q1 2026. A key contributor to the net loss was a $2.9 million loss associated with a January 2026 warrant inducement offer.
2. Shareholder Dilution from Capital Raises.
The company's shareholders experienced substantial dilution, with a 50% increase in shares outstanding over the past year. Furthermore, in June 2026, Arcadia Biosciences announced and subsequently closed a private placement that generated approximately $4 million in gross proceeds through the sale of common stock and preferred investment options. Given the company's market capitalization was around $2.22 million at the time of the $4 million raise, this significant capital infusion likely contributed to further dilution for existing shareholders.
Show more
Arcadia Biosciences (RKDA) stock has lost about 50% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Deterioration in Fiscal Q1 2026 Financial Performance.
Arcadia Biosciences reported a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $4.4 million for fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), a substantial decrease from a $2.6 million net income in fiscal Q1 2025, representing a 269% decline. The company also missed analyst earnings per share (EPS) estimates by 163.75%, reporting an EPS of -$2.11 against an estimated -$0.80. This decline was compounded by an 8% year-over-year decrease in total revenue to $1.1 million and a $1.2 million increase in total operating expenses in fiscal Q1 2026. A key contributor to the net loss was a $2.9 million loss associated with a January 2026 warrant inducement offer.
2. Shareholder Dilution from Capital Raises.
The company's shareholders experienced substantial dilution, with a 50% increase in shares outstanding over the past year. Furthermore, in June 2026, Arcadia Biosciences announced and subsequently closed a private placement that generated approximately $4 million in gross proceeds through the sale of common stock and preferred investment options. Given the company's market capitalization was around $2.22 million at the time of the $4 million raise, this significant capital infusion likely contributed to further dilution for existing shareholders.
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Updated on 7/1/2026
Arcadia Biosciences (RKDA) stock has lost about 50% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Deterioration in Fiscal Q1 2026 Financial Performance.
Arcadia Biosciences reported a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $4.4 million for fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), a substantial decrease from a $2.6 million net income in fiscal Q1 2025, representing a 269% decline. The company also missed analyst earnings per share (EPS) estimates by 163.75%, reporting an EPS of -$2.11 against an estimated -$0.80. This decline was compounded by an 8% year-over-year decrease in total revenue to $1.1 million and a $1.2 million increase in total operating expenses in fiscal Q1 2026. A key contributor to the net loss was a $2.9 million loss associated with a January 2026 warrant inducement offer.
2. Shareholder Dilution from Capital Raises.
The company's shareholders experienced substantial dilution, with a 50% increase in shares outstanding over the past year. Furthermore, in June 2026, Arcadia Biosciences announced and subsequently closed a private placement that generated approximately $4 million in gross proceeds through the sale of common stock and preferred investment options. Given the company's market capitalization was around $2.22 million at the time of the $4 million raise, this significant capital infusion likely contributed to further dilution for existing shareholders.
3. Persistent Liquidity Concerns and Going Concern Warning.
Arcadia Biosciences has consistently indicated liquidity stress and the necessity for external funding in recent months. The company's audit reports for the full fiscal year 2025 (ended December 31, 2025) included an explanatory paragraph regarding its ability to continue as a "going concern," highlighting an accumulated deficit, recurring net losses, and insufficient resources to meet anticipated cash requirements. The fiscal Q1 2026 report further underlined this financial instability, showing the company burning cash at a faster rate than it generates, with both net income and EBITDA around -$4.4 million for the quarter.
4. Negative Analyst Sentiment and Bearish Forecasts.
Analyst ratings as of June 30, 2026, reflected a "Sell" consensus from one analyst, with analysts generally rating RKDA less favorably compared to other "medical" companies. Technical indicators in June 2026 suggested a strongly bearish trend, with a high probability of continued downward movement. Long-term forecasts also projected a further decline, with the stock expected to fall to $0.42 over the next 52 weeks based on historical data.
Show less
Arcadia Biosciences (RKDA) stock has lost about 50% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Deterioration in Fiscal Q1 2026 Financial Performance.
Arcadia Biosciences reported a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $4.4 million for fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), a substantial decrease from a $2.6 million net income in fiscal Q1 2025, representing a 269% decline. The company also missed analyst earnings per share (EPS) estimates by 163.75%, reporting an EPS of -$2.11 against an estimated -$0.80. This decline was compounded by an 8% year-over-year decrease in total revenue to $1.1 million and a $1.2 million increase in total operating expenses in fiscal Q1 2026. A key contributor to the net loss was a $2.9 million loss associated with a January 2026 warrant inducement offer.
2. Shareholder Dilution from Capital Raises.
The company's shareholders experienced substantial dilution, with a 50% increase in shares outstanding over the past year. Furthermore, in June 2026, Arcadia Biosciences announced and subsequently closed a private placement that generated approximately $4 million in gross proceeds through the sale of common stock and preferred investment options. Given the company's market capitalization was around $2.22 million at the time of the $4 million raise, this significant capital infusion likely contributed to further dilution for existing shareholders.
3. Persistent Liquidity Concerns and Going Concern Warning.
Arcadia Biosciences has consistently indicated liquidity stress and the necessity for external funding in recent months. The company's audit reports for the full fiscal year 2025 (ended December 31, 2025) included an explanatory paragraph regarding its ability to continue as a "going concern," highlighting an accumulated deficit, recurring net losses, and insufficient resources to meet anticipated cash requirements. The fiscal Q1 2026 report further underlined this financial instability, showing the company burning cash at a faster rate than it generates, with both net income and EBITDA around -$4.4 million for the quarter.
4. Negative Analyst Sentiment and Bearish Forecasts.
Analyst ratings as of June 30, 2026, reflected a "Sell" consensus from one analyst, with analysts generally rating RKDA less favorably compared to other "medical" companies. Technical indicators in June 2026 suggested a strongly bearish trend, with a high probability of continued downward movement. Long-term forecasts also projected a further decline, with the stock expected to fall to $0.42 over the next 52 weeks based on historical data.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -49.0% change in RKDA stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -34.1% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.38 | 0.70 | -49.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5 | 5 | -2.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.4 | 0.3 | -21.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1 | 2 | -34.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -49.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RKDA | -49.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.0% | 11.1% |
| Sector (XLP) | 3.5% | -8.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -64.5% change in RKDA stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -41.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.98 | 0.70 | -64.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5 | 5 | -8.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.5 | 0.3 | -41.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1 | 2 | -34.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -64.5% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RKDA | -64.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 21.5% |
| Sector (XLP) | 9.9% | -1.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -83.7% change in RKDA stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -72.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.31 | 0.70 | -83.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5 | 5 | -9.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.1 | 0.3 | -72.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1 | 2 | -34.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -83.7% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RKDA | -83.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.0% | 14.7% |
| Sector (XLP) | 7.0% | 1.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -81.9% change in RKDA stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -58.5% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.88 | 0.70 | -81.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 7 | 5 | -35.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.5 | 0.3 | -32.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1 | 2 | -58.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -81.9% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RKDA | -81.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.6% | 10.5% |
| Sector (XLP) | 23.3% | 3.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RKDA Return | -59% | -74% | -71% | 89% | -67% | -64% | -99% |
| Peers Return | -1% | -11% | 233% | -13% | -13% | 4% | 130% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 101% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RKDA Win Rate | 42% | 33% | 25% | 50% | 25% | 29% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 50% | 47% | 47% | 42% | 49% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 57% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RKDA Max Drawdown | -82% | -90% | -82% | -48% | -71% | -76% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -41% | -44% | -42% | -42% | -39% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CBUS, INGR, CTVA, SEED, BG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/7/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RKDA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -39.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 55 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -15.0% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.7% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 20 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -46.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 334 days | 24 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -53.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 329 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -40.9% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 48 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -72.5% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 264.2% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 267 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Arcadia Biosciences's stock fell -39.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 64.6% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | RKDA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -39.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 55 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -46.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 334 days | 24 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -53.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 329 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -40.9% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 48 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -72.5% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 264.2% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 267 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Arcadia Biosciences's stock fell -39.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 64.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Arcadia Biosciences (RKDA)
Arcadia Biosciences (RKDA) is a company that operates in two primary segments: producing and marketing plant-based health and wellness products, and developing advanced crop improvements. The company's strategy involves leveraging plant science to create value from the farm field to the consumer market.
A key part of Arcadia's business focuses on agricultural biotechnology, specifically developing enhanced crop varieties, with a strong emphasis on wheat. These improvements are designed to boost farm economics by improving crop performance and yield in the field, while also increasing the intrinsic value of these crops.
The enhanced crops developed by Arcadia are intended for diverse applications, including use as improved food ingredients, as components for various health and wellness products, and for industrial applications. This dual approach allows Arcadia Biosciences to serve both consumer health markets directly in the United States and agricultural/industrial markets through its crop innovation.
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Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Arcadia Biosciences (RKDA):
- Arcadia Biosciences is like Bayer Crop Science that makes its own line of plant-based health products.
- Think of it as Monsanto (now part of Bayer Crop Science) if it also had a natural food brand.
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- Plant-based health and wellness products: The company produces and markets various plant-based products designed for health and wellness applications in the United States.
- Crop improvement technology: Arcadia Biosciences develops enhanced crop varieties, primarily in wheat, to improve farm economics, increase value as food ingredients, and for health, wellness, and industrial applications.
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Arcadia Biosciences (RKDA) primarily sells to other companies, which serve as its major customers.
Its major customers fall into the following categories:
- Major Retail Chains: These companies stock Arcadia's branded GoodWheat™ consumer products (such as pasta, flour, and pancake mixes) on their shelves for sale to individual consumers. Known retail customers include:
- Food Manufacturers and Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) Companies: These businesses integrate Arcadia's proprietary GoodWheat™ ingredients into their own food products, leveraging the enhanced nutritional and functional attributes of the wheat. While specific names of these ingredient customers are typically not publicly disclosed by Arcadia Biosciences, this category represents a significant segment of their business-to-business (B2B) customer base.
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Thomas J. Schaefer President, Chief Executive Officer, and Interim Chief Financial Officer
Thomas J. Schaefer was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Arcadia Biosciences in July 2024, having previously served as the company's Chief Financial Officer since January 2023. In September 2025, he was also appointed Interim Chief Financial Officer. He joined Arcadia in 2020 and brings over two decades of experience in investments and corporate finance. His background includes working on acquisitions, divestitures, and product launches across various industries. Notably, Schaefer served as director of finance at Flavor Producers, a portfolio company owned by private equity firm GTCR.
Kevin Comcowich Independent Chair of the Board
Kevin Comcowich has served as a director on Arcadia's board since October 2016 and became the Independent Chair of the Board in 2017. He briefly served as the interim Chief Executive Officer of the company from January to February 2022. Comcowich possesses extensive business and financial leadership experience, with a track record in investment management and global capital market strategies. His previous roles include serving as the chief executive officer and portfolio manager of HTX Energy Fund and as the president and chief investment officer (CIO) of Sound Energy Partners.
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The key risks to Arcadia Biosciences (RKDA) are multifaceted, primarily revolving around its financial viability and operational challenges.
- Financial Instability and Need for Additional Funding: Arcadia Biosciences faces significant financial uncertainty, including a rapid depletion of its cash reserves and a substantial accumulated deficit. The company has consistently incurred net losses and anticipates this trend to continue. There is "substantial doubt about [Arcadia Biosciences'] ability to continue as a going concern", indicating a high risk that the company may be unable to meet its financial obligations without securing additional capital. Failure to obtain further financing on favorable terms could lead to a reduction or suspension of operations, asset liquidation, or even bankruptcy proceedings.
- Uncertainty Regarding Receivable Collection and Default on Promissory Note: A critical financial challenge for Arcadia Biosciences is the uncertainty surrounding the collection of a $6 million promissory note from Above Food Corp. This note was issued as partial payment for Arcadia's GoodWheat business. Above Food Corp. has defaulted on a scheduled payment and is currently undergoing receivership proceedings, making the collection of this significant receivable highly doubtful. Arcadia Biosciences has already recognized a substantial credit loss on this note, directly impacting its financial health.
- High Dependence on Zola Coconut Water and Associated Legal Challenges: Arcadia Biosciences' current revenue is predominantly driven by its Zola coconut water brand. While this brand has shown growth, this high revenue concentration makes the company particularly vulnerable to market shifts, increased competition, or any issues specifically affecting the Zola product line. Furthermore, the company faces ongoing legal challenges, including a lawsuit related to Proposition 65 concerning BPA in coconut water containers, which could pose risks to future operations and potentially impact brand reputation and sales.
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Arcadia Biosciences, Inc. (RKDA) has significantly shifted its business focus from agricultural biotechnology, including its GoodWheat portfolio, to consumer packaged goods, primarily centering on its Zola coconut water brand. The company exited its legacy wheat and oil businesses in 2024, selling the GoodWheat brand and related patents. Arcadia Biosciences is now concentrating on Zola coconut water and is pursuing a business combination with Roosevelt Resources, an energy company.
The addressable markets for Arcadia Biosciences' main product, Zola coconut water, are as follows:
* Global Coconut Water Market: The global coconut water market was valued at approximately USD 5.1 billion to USD 5.5 billion in 2025. This market is projected to reach between USD 14.0 billion and USD 22.8 billion by 2033-2034, exhibiting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) ranging from 10.35% to 18.2% during the forecast periods.
* U.S. Coconut Water Market: The U.S. coconut water market was valued at approximately USD 1.05 billion in 2025. It is expected to grow to about USD 3.8 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 17.7% from 2026 to 2033. Another estimate places the U.S. coconut water market at USD 1.89 billion in 2023, projected to reach USD 5.12 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 18.10%.
* Broader Plant-Based and Health & Wellness Food Markets: Zola coconut water also operates within the larger plant-based products market and the health and wellness foods market.
* The global plant-based products market was valued at approximately USD 30.41 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 85 billion by 2033.
* The U.S. plant-based food market was anticipated to be USD 10.23 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to USD 27.74 billion by 2034.
* The global health and wellness foods market was estimated at USD 1,015.0 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 2,031.1 billion by 2033. North America was the largest segment of this market, with revenue of USD 338.8 billion in 2025. The U.S. health and wellness food market specifically was valued at USD 249.49 billion in 2024, with projections to reach USD 517.95 billion by 2032.
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For Arcadia Biosciences (RKDA), the expected drivers of future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years primarily revolve around its focused strategy on the Zola coconut water brand and the monetization of its intellectual property. The company has strategically divested its legacy agricultural biotechnology assets and wheat business to concentrate on its consumer packaged goods segment.
- Expanded Distribution and Sales Volume of Zola Coconut Water: A significant driver of revenue growth is the continued expansion of Zola coconut water's retail distribution and increased sales volume. Arcadia Biosciences has consistently reported substantial year-over-year growth in Zola sales, driven by adding new distribution channels, strong orders from existing customers, and increased store counts. For example, in Q3 2024, Zola Coconut Water sales increased by 55% year-over-year, with its retail store count rising by 68% compared to the same period. This momentum is expected to continue into 2025 due to new distribution gains and a healthy pipeline of additional opportunities. The company's focus on expanding Zola's market presence aims to significantly increase its share in the coconut water industry.
- Introduction of New Zola Coconut Water Products and Flavors: The launch of new product offerings and flavors within the Zola brand is anticipated to attract more consumers and boost sales. The company has already introduced new flavors, such as Pineapple and Lime in Q1 2024, which are expected to be key contributors to Zola's growth.
- Monetization of Remaining Intellectual Property: While Arcadia Biosciences has divested its GoodWheat business, it continues to explore opportunities to monetize its remaining intellectual property (IP) portfolio. The company generated cash from the sale of wheat IP to Corteva Agriscience and the sale of its reduced gluten patent portfolio. Management has indicated ongoing discussions for monetizing its wheat intellectual property portfolio, with potential transactions targeted for announcement.
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Share Issuance
- In January 2026, Arcadia Biosciences announced the exercise of preferred investment options, resulting in $2.1 million in gross proceeds.
- In March 2023, the company granted preferred investment options to purchase a total of 33,317 shares of common stock to a placement agent.
- A reverse stock split with a ratio of 1:40 was executed on March 1, 2023.
Inbound Investments
- The exercise of preferred investment options in January 2026 generated $2.1 million in gross proceeds for the company.
Outbound Investments
- On May 16, 2024, Arcadia sold its GoodWheat™ brand to Above Food for a net consideration of $3.7 million.
- On May 14, 2024, the company sold its non-GMO Resistant Starch (RS) durum wheat trait to longtime partner Corteva Agriscience for $4.0 million in cash.
- Arcadia's management decided to exit the remaining body care brands, Soul Spring and ProVault, in July 2023, ceasing operations during the third quarter of 2023.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Arcadia Biosciences Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| How Low Can Arcadia Biosciences Stock Really Go? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 44.12 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.2 |
| Rev LTM | 3,601 |
| Op Inc LTM | 479 |
| FCF LTM | -4 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 65 |
| CFO LTM | 588 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,174 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -8.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -4.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 0.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -1.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 0.2% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $0.70 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/15/2015 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -87.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $1.01 | $2.29 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -30.2% | -69.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 83.3% | 100.7% |
| Downside Capture | 260.01 | 305.59 |
| Upside Capture | -83.31 | 12.22 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 9.3% | 14.2% |
RKDA Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.50 | 0.97 | 1.01 | 1.30 | 1.20 | 0.73 |
| Up Beta | 3.02 | 1.84 | 1.59 | 1.45 | 0.79 | 0.93 |
| Down Beta | -2.08 | -0.14 | -0.23 | 0.59 | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| Up Capture | -147% | -57% | -51% | 2% | 14% | 9% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 15 | 26 | 47 | 99 | 330 |
| Down Capture | 211% | 241% | 270% | 220% | 181% | 105% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 23 | 34 | 69 | 138 | 388 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RKDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RKDA | -85.1% | 100.7% | -1.45 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 5.4% | 13.4% | 0.14 | 1.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.7% | 12.5% | 1.22 | 14.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.0% | 27.8% | 0.73 | 15.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 22.9% | 18.6% | 0.97 | -2.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.6% | 13.8% | 0.68 | 7.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -41.8% | 42.8% | -1.14 | 6.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RKDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RKDA | -64.4% | 102.0% | -0.59 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 6.6% | 13.4% | 0.28 | 4.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.3% | 17.1% | 0.60 | 14.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.8% | 18.3% | 0.79 | 8.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.6% | 19.5% | 0.29 | 6.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.1% | 18.9% | 0.06 | 10.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.2% | 53.5% | 0.43 | 8.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RKDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RKDA | -54.8% | 148.9% | -0.07 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.6% | 14.8% | 0.38 | 3.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.7% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 9.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.6% | 16.1% | 0.59 | 4.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.2% | 18.0% | 0.27 | 6.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 8.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 57.9% | 66.2% | 0.98 | -0.9% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 7/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/14/2026 | -10.7% | -15.3% | -14.2% |
| 3/26/2026 | -3.3% | -11.0% | -28.9% |
| 11/7/2025 | -2.2% | 2.2% | -0.8% |
| 8/14/2025 | 5.6% | -1.2% | -21.5% |
| 5/8/2025 | -0.2% | -3.3% | 15.2% |
| 3/20/2025 | -4.5% | 2.8% | -12.8% |
| 11/12/2024 | -1.2% | -33.0% | 48.6% |
| 8/13/2024 | -11.0% | -11.0% | -7.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| # Negative | 16 | 15 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 12.6% | 8.9% | 15.9% |
| Median Negative | -4.9% | -11.0% | -14.1% |
| Max Positive | 18.8% | 57.6% | 48.6% |
| Max Negative | -14.6% | -33.0% | -51.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/14/2026 | -10.7% | -15.3% | -14.2% |
| 3/26/2026 | -3.3% | -11.0% | -28.9% |
| 11/7/2025 | -2.2% | 2.2% | -0.8% |
| 8/14/2025 | 5.6% | -1.2% | -21.5% |
| 5/8/2025 | -0.2% | -3.3% | 15.2% |
| 3/20/2025 | -4.5% | 2.8% | -12.8% |
| 11/12/2024 | -1.2% | -33.0% | 48.6% |
| 8/13/2024 | -11.0% | -11.0% | -7.0% |
| 5/9/2024 | -0.7% | 57.6% | 37.3% |
| 11/9/2023 | -3.5% | -6.7% | -11.9% |
| 8/10/2023 | -2.7% | -12.4% | -14.0% |
| 5/11/2023 | -14.6% | -24.0% | -23.7% |
| 11/10/2022 | -6.6% | -3.4% | 4.0% |
| 8/11/2022 | 12.6% | -2.8% | -16.8% |
| 5/12/2022 | 18.8% | 50.6% | 27.1% |
| 11/15/2021 | -6.8% | -28.6% | -51.5% |
| 8/16/2021 | -5.2% | -4.4% | -6.1% |
| 5/17/2021 | 1.9% | 5.4% | 12.3% |
| 3/30/2021 | 18.2% | 12.4% | 15.9% |
| 11/12/2020 | -12.4% | -12.4% | -10.3% |
| 8/13/2020 | -12.9% | -11.3% | -20.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| # Negative | 16 | 15 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 12.6% | 8.9% | 15.9% |
| Median Negative | -4.9% | -11.0% | -14.1% |
| Max Positive | 18.8% | 57.6% | 48.6% |
| Max Negative | -14.6% | -33.0% | -51.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/14/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/15/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/30/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/14/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/15/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/30/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/31/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/15/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/16/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/17/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/31/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/13/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/13/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/13/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/25/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/06/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/14/2019 | 10-Q |
Industry Resources
| Consumer Staples Resources |
| FoodNavigator |
| Consumer Goods Technology (CGT) |
| Beverage Digest |
| Packaged Foods & Meats Resources |
| USDA Data |
| Food Processing |
| Meat+Poultry |
| Just Food |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 7/7/2026