Flowers Foods (FLO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.07 | Market Cap: $2.3 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Flowers Foods (FLO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.07Market Cap: $2.3 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 7.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 12% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -90%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -129% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 76% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -32% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Vegan Products, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 7.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 12% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -32% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Vegan Products, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -90%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -129% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 76% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
FLO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points highlighting reasons for the negative movement of Flowers Foods (FLO) stock from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Flowers Foods Revised its Full-Year 2025 Financial Guidance Downward.
On August 15, 2025, Flowers Foods reported its second-quarter 2025 results and lowered its financial outlook for the full fiscal year 2025. This revision was primarily attributed to lower-than-expected revenues in the second quarter, largely due to softness in traditional loaf sales and an increasingly competitive market, conditions which the company anticipated would persist throughout the year. The updated guidance included lower expectations for net sales, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted diluted EPS.
2. Overall Stock Performance Showed a Significant Decline in 2025.
Flowers Foods' stock experienced a substantial downturn throughout 2025, with its price going down by 47.31% during the year. This broader yearly decline indicates a negative trend that would encompass the specified period from late August to early December.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FLO Return | 8% | 26% | 8% | -19% | -4% | -45% | -37% |
| Peers Return | 7% | 8% | 20% | -15% | 10% | -17% | 7% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FLO Win Rate | 50% | 75% | 50% | 33% | 58% | 10% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 46% | 62% | 42% | 56% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FLO Max Drawdown | -18% | -4% | -11% | -27% | -6% | -47% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -9% | -7% | -26% | -7% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KHC, K, GIS, CAG, BRBF. See FLO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FLO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 140 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -20.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 144 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -36.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 803 days | 1480 days |
Compare to KHC, K, GIS, CAG, BRBF
In The Past
Flowers Foods's stock fell -32.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/5/2022. A -32.4% loss requires a 47.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Flowers Foods Earnings Notes | |||
| Flowers Foods Stock Jump Looks Great, But How Secure Is That Gain? | Return | ||
| After FLO's 5.4% Single Day Slide, UNH Looks Like the Stronger Long-Term Play | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| After FLO's 5.4% Single Day Slide, PPC Looks Like the Stronger Long-Term Play | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Flowers Foods Stock vs Competition: Who Wins? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Better Bet Than FLO Stock: Pay Less Than Flowers Foods To Get More From PPC, CALM | |||
| Better Bet Than FLO Stock: Pay Less Than Flowers Foods To Get More From CALM, PPC | |||
| Better Bet Than FLO Stock: Pay Less Than Flowers Foods To Get More From CALM, PPC | |||
| Flowers Foods (FLO) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Flowers Foods (FLO) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | September 16th, 2025 | ||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | September 4th, 2025 | ||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | September 2nd, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to FLO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Flowers Foods
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 25.03 |
| Mkt Cap | 25.0 |
| Rev LTM | 12,047 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,602 |
| FCF LTM | 895 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,014 |
| CFO LTM | 1,424 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,516 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | -2.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 25.0 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | 8.5 |
| P/E | 10.3 |
| P/CFO | 6.9 |
| Total Yield | 14.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 6.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -13.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -27.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | -40.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -11.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -28.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -40.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -110.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 10/4/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8152025 | 10-Q 7/12/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5162025 | 10-Q 4/19/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 10/5/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8162024 | 10-Q 7/13/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5162024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 10/7/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 10-Q 7/15/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5182023 | 10-Q 4/22/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 10-Q 10/8/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 10-Q 7/16/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5192022 | 10-Q 4/23/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 1/1/2022 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |