Tearsheet

Flowers Foods (FLO)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.07 | Market Cap: $2.3 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats

Flowers Foods (FLO)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.07
Market Cap: $2.3 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 7.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 12%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -90%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -129%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 76%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -32%
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 26%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Vegan Products, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 7.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 12%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -32%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 26%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Vegan Products, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -90%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -129%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 76%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

FLO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points highlighting reasons for the negative movement of Flowers Foods (FLO) stock from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Flowers Foods Revised its Full-Year 2025 Financial Guidance Downward. On August 15, 2025, Flowers Foods reported its second-quarter 2025 results and lowered its financial outlook for the full fiscal year 2025. This revision was primarily attributed to lower-than-expected revenues in the second quarter, largely due to softness in traditional loaf sales and an increasingly competitive market, conditions which the company anticipated would persist throughout the year. The updated guidance included lower expectations for net sales, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted diluted EPS.

2. Overall Stock Performance Showed a Significant Decline in 2025. Flowers Foods' stock experienced a substantial downturn throughout 2025, with its price going down by 47.31% during the year. This broader yearly decline indicates a negative trend that would encompass the specified period from late August to early December.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
FLO Return8%26%8%-19%-4%-45%-37%
Peers Return7%8%20%-15%10%-17%7%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
FLO Win Rate50%75%50%33%58%10% 
Peers Win Rate60%46%62%42%56%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
FLO Max Drawdown-18%-4%-11%-27%-6%-47% 
Peers Max Drawdown-25%-9%-7%-26%-7%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KHC, K, GIS, CAG, BRBF. See FLO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventFLOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-32.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven47.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-26.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven140 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-20.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven26.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven144 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-36.2%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven56.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven803 days1480 days

Compare to KHC, K, GIS, CAG, BRBF


In The Past

Flowers Foods's stock fell -32.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/5/2022. A -32.4% loss requires a 47.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Flowers Foods (FLO)

Better Bets than Flowers Foods (FLO)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to FLO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.1%3.1%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.9%-1.9%-1.9%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.3%-5.3%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.5%3.5%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.1%2.1%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.1%3.1%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.9%-1.9%-1.9%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.3%-5.3%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.5%3.5%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.1%2.1%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Flowers Foods

Peers to compare with:

Financials

FLOKHCKGISCAGBRBFMedian
NameFlowers .Kraft He.KellanovaGeneral .Conagra .BRB Foods 
Mkt Price11.0725.0383.1446.2017.16-25.03
Mkt Cap2.329.628.825.08.2-25.0
Rev LTM5,13525,16412,64319,15611,450012,047
Op Inc LTM3204,8951,8553,1411,348-11,602
FCF LTM3253,6316502,0961,141-0895
FCF 3Y Avg2573,0478952,3001,133-11,014
CFO LTM4514,4741,3052,6911,544-01,424
CFO 3Y Avg3844,0661,5123,0031,52011,516

Growth & Margins

FLOKHCKGISCAGBRBFMedian
NameFlowers .Kraft He.KellanovaGeneral .Conagra .BRB Foods 
Rev Chg LTM0.3%-3.7%-1.4%-3.3%-4.1%-100.0%-3.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg3.0%-0.8%1.5%0.1%-0.9%-0.1%
Rev Chg Q3.0%-2.3%0.3%-6.8%-5.8%--2.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.7%-0.6%0.1%-1.7%-1.4%--0.6%
Op Mgn LTM6.2%19.5%14.7%16.4%11.8%-14.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg5.7%19.6%12.1%16.9%15.1%-15.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.5%-0.9%-0.4%-0.5%-0.7%--0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM8.8%17.8%10.3%14.0%13.5%-13.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg7.5%15.6%12.2%15.2%12.8%-12.8%
FCF/Rev LTM6.3%14.4%5.1%10.9%10.0%-10.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.0%11.7%7.2%11.7%9.6%-9.6%

Valuation

FLOKHCKGISCAGBRBFMedian
NameFlowers .Kraft He.KellanovaGeneral .Conagra .BRB Foods 
Mkt Cap2.329.628.825.08.2-25.0
P/S0.51.22.31.50.8-1.2
P/EBIT8.5-5.515.18.75.7-8.5
P/E14.2-7.121.39.610.3-10.3
P/CFO6.16.921.810.45.7-6.9
Total Yield14.6%-8.0%7.5%15.2%17.3%-14.6%
Dividend Yield7.5%6.2%2.8%4.7%7.6%-6.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg7.0%8.3%3.6%6.6%9.5%-7.0%
D/E0.80.70.20.50.9-0.7
Net D/E0.80.60.20.50.9-0.6

Returns

FLOKHCKGISCAGBRBFMedian
NameFlowers .Kraft He.KellanovaGeneral .Conagra .BRB Foods 
1M Rtn-4.6%4.5%0.8%-0.5%-0.8%--0.5%
3M Rtn-21.3%-5.6%5.9%-6.0%-8.8%--6.0%
6M Rtn-29.7%-3.4%3.0%-13.3%-20.7%--13.3%
12M Rtn-47.4%-15.7%6.1%-27.1%-33.8%--27.1%
3Y Rtn-57.2%-27.0%32.1%-40.4%-47.5%--40.4%
1M Excs Rtn-4.6%4.5%0.8%-0.5%-0.7%--0.5%
3M Excs Rtn-26.6%-11.0%-0.0%-11.1%-12.9%--11.1%
6M Excs Rtn-44.4%-18.1%-11.8%-28.0%-35.5%--28.0%
12M Excs Rtn-61.2%-30.6%-7.6%-40.6%-47.0%--40.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-129.4%-98.0%-37.6%-110.6%-118.7%--110.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment5,0914,8064,3314,3884,124
Total5,0914,8064,3314,3884,124


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity17,838,747
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-5.6%
Average Daily Volume4,544,912
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.92
Basic Shares Quantity211,417,000
Short % of Basic Shares8.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 10/4/2025
6302025815202510-Q 7/12/2025
3312025516202510-Q 4/19/2025
12312024218202510-K 12/28/2024
93020241108202410-Q 10/5/2024
6302024816202410-Q 7/13/2024
3312024516202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/30/2023
93020231109202310-Q 10/7/2023
6302023810202310-Q 7/15/2023
3312023518202310-Q 4/22/2023
12312022222202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221110202210-Q 10/8/2022
6302022811202210-Q 7/16/2022
3312022519202210-Q 4/23/2022
12312021223202210-K 1/1/2022

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Cox CindyChief Human Resources Officer9102025Sell15.003,60054,000254,910Form
1DEESE GEORGE E 5282025Buy16.846,000101,03933,763,831Form

Industry Resources

Packaged Foods & Meats Resources
USDA Data