Dauch (DCH)
Market Price (8/4/2026): $5.805 | Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Parts & Equipment
Dauch (DCH)
Market Price (8/4/2026): $5.805Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Parts & Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Automation & Robotics, and Advanced Materials. Themes include EV Manufacturing, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -57%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 387% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -16% Key risksDCH key risks include [1] failing to adapt its product portfolio from internal combustion to electric vehicle technologies and [2] successfully integrating the recent Dowlais Group acquisition to realize expected synergies. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Automation & Robotics, and Advanced Materials. Themes include EV Manufacturing, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -57%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 387% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -16% |
| Key risksDCH key risks include [1] failing to adapt its product portfolio from internal combustion to electric vehicle technologies and [2] successfully integrating the recent Dowlais Group acquisition to realize expected synergies. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Dauch (DCH) stock has remained largely at the same level since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Anticipation of Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Report Creates "Wait and See" Stance.
The Dauch Corporation stock remained largely flat as investors awaited the release of its fiscal Q2 2026 financial results, scheduled for August 7, 2026. This pre-earnings period often leads to cautious trading as the market anticipates actual performance figures and updated guidance. Analysts have varying expectations for fiscal Q2 2026, with an estimated EPS of $0.16 and revenue projections ranging from $2.80 billion to $2.81 billion. However, projections on August 2, 2026, indicated an expected sharp year-over-year drop in EPS to $0.14 for the June 2026 quarter. This mixed outlook likely contributed to a holding pattern for the stock.
2. Ongoing Integration and Realization of Synergies from the Dowlais Acquisition.
Dauch's recent acquisition of Dowlais Group plc, completed in fiscal Q1 2026, continued to be a significant influence on its stock movement. While Dauch reported a strong fiscal Q1 2026 with an adjusted EPS of $0.34 against an estimate of -$0.03 and revenue of $2.38 billion exceeding expectations, and maintained its fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, the market is closely watching the successful integration of Dowlais and the realization of projected synergy benefits. The fiscal year 2026 targets include synergy benefits of $50 million to $75 million, with a run rate expected to exceed $100 million by the end of year one. The success of this integration and its impact on future earnings are critical, but also carry risks that prevent significant upward or downward movement in the short term.
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Dauch (DCH) stock has remained largely at the same level since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Anticipation of Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Report Creates "Wait and See" Stance.
The Dauch Corporation stock remained largely flat as investors awaited the release of its fiscal Q2 2026 financial results, scheduled for August 7, 2026. This pre-earnings period often leads to cautious trading as the market anticipates actual performance figures and updated guidance. Analysts have varying expectations for fiscal Q2 2026, with an estimated EPS of $0.16 and revenue projections ranging from $2.80 billion to $2.81 billion. However, projections on August 2, 2026, indicated an expected sharp year-over-year drop in EPS to $0.14 for the June 2026 quarter. This mixed outlook likely contributed to a holding pattern for the stock.
2. Ongoing Integration and Realization of Synergies from the Dowlais Acquisition.
Dauch's recent acquisition of Dowlais Group plc, completed in fiscal Q1 2026, continued to be a significant influence on its stock movement. While Dauch reported a strong fiscal Q1 2026 with an adjusted EPS of $0.34 against an estimate of -$0.03 and revenue of $2.38 billion exceeding expectations, and maintained its fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, the market is closely watching the successful integration of Dowlais and the realization of projected synergy benefits. The fiscal year 2026 targets include synergy benefits of $50 million to $75 million, with a run rate expected to exceed $100 million by the end of year one. The success of this integration and its impact on future earnings are critical, but also carry risks that prevent significant upward or downward movement in the short term.
3. Mixed Analyst Sentiment and Valuation Concerns.
Analyst ratings for Dauch during the period were mixed, contributing to the stock's stable trend. While some analysts maintained "Buy" ratings with average 12-month price targets of $8.94 to $9.58, indicating a potential upside of approximately 58% to 70% from the July 31, 2026 closing price of $5.65, a significant portion recommended "Hold". For example, 57.14% of 7 analysts recommended "Hold" as of July 2026. Additionally, the stock was noted to be trading well below analyst targets and an estimated fair value of $14.90 on August 2, 2026, creating a "wide valuation gap" that is dependent on "ambitious earnings assumptions" and the smooth integration of the Dowlais deal. This divergence in opinion and the inherent risks associated with future projections likely kept the stock from making a decisive move.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 1.6% change in DCH stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 41.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.71 | 5.80 | 1.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,837 | 6,804 | 16.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.2 | 41.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 119 | 193 | -38.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1.6% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DCH | 1.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.4% | 56.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.1% | 39.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -27.2% change in DCH stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -38.6% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.97 | 5.80 | -27.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,834 | 6,804 | 16.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 119 | 193 | -38.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -27.2% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DCH | -27.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 55.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | -2.2% | 44.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DCH | ||
| Market (SPY) | 20.9% | 53.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | 7.4% | 45.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DCH | ||
| Market (SPY) | 71.4% | 53.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | 39.2% | 45.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DCH Return | - | - | - | - | - | -20% | -20% |
| Peers Return | 22% | -26% | 6% | -28% | 45% | 22% | 24% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 99% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DCH Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 38% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 35% | 42% | 28% | 58% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 38% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DCH Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -44% | -31% | -37% | -31% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MGA, BWA, DAN, LEA, ADNT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/3/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
DCH has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.
| Event | XLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -11.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.6% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -13.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.8% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -35.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 874 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -19.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 98 days | 105 days |
In The Past
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -21.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 27.9% gain to breakeven.
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DCH has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.
| Event | XLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -35.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 874 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -51.0% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.3% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 372 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -21.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 27.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Dauch (DCH)
Dauch (DCH), officially known as American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc., is a global automotive supplier specializing in the design, engineering, and manufacturing of driveline and metal forming technologies. The company develops critical components for a diverse range of vehicles, supporting traditional internal combustion engines, hybrid powertrains, and emerging electric vehicle platforms. Its operations and market reach extend across the United States, Mexico, South America, China, other Asian countries, and Europe.
The company operates through two main segments. Its Driveline segment provides essential components such as front and rear axles, driveshafts, differential assemblies, clutch modules, and advanced electric and hybrid driveline systems. These products are integral to light trucks, sport utility vehicles, crossover vehicles, passenger cars, and commercial vehicles. The Metal Forming segment focuses on manufacturing precision components including axle and transmission shafts, ring and pinion gears, differential gears and assemblies, and connecting rods.
American Axle & Manufacturing's primary customers are leading original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and Tier 1 automotive suppliers worldwide. By supplying these core components, DCH plays a vital role in the production and functionality of a broad spectrum of vehicles across the global automotive industry.
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Analogies for Dauch (DCH):
- Intel for car axles and drivelines.
- Cummins for vehicle axles and power transmission systems.
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- Front and Rear Axles: Core driveline components that transfer power to vehicle wheels.
- Driveshafts: Components transmitting rotational power from the transmission to the differential.
- Differential Assemblies: Mechanisms allowing vehicle wheels to rotate at different speeds, crucial for turning.
- Electric and Hybrid Driveline Products: Specialized driveline components and systems designed for electric and hybrid vehicles.
- Disconnecting Driveline Technology: Enhances fuel efficiency by disengaging parts of the driveline when not needed.
- Axle and Transmission Shafts: Key metal-formed components for power transmission within vehicle axles and transmissions.
- Ring and Pinion Gears: Essential gear sets within differentials for efficient power transfer and direction change.
- Connecting Rods: Components linking engine pistons to the crankshaft, converting linear motion into rotational motion.
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- General Motors Company (GM)
- Stellantis N.V. (STLA)
- Ford Motor Company (F)
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David C. Dauch, Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer
David C. Dauch has over 40 years of experience in the automotive industry, beginning his career in 1982 as a Manufacturing Co-op student with the former Chrysler Corporation. He joined American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM) in 1995 and has served in various roles of increasing responsibility, including President & Chief Operating Officer (2009), President & Chief Executive Officer (2012), and Chairman & Chief Executive Officer (2013-Present). Prior to AAM, Dauch held operations and sales positions at Collins & Aikman Products Company.
Christopher J. May, Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Christopher J. May joined American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM) in 1994 as a Financial Analyst. He has since held numerous financial positions with increasing responsibility, including Manager Financial Reporting, Director Internal Audit, Assistant Treasurer, and Treasurer. May was appointed Vice President & Chief Financial Officer in August 2015 and currently serves as Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer. Before joining AAM, he worked as a Senior Accountant for Ernst & Young. He holds an MBA from the University of Detroit Mercy and a Bachelor of Science in Accounting from Canisius College, and is a CPA.
Michael J. Lynch, President & Chief Operating Officer
Michael J. Lynch began his career at American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM) in 1996 as a Financial Analyst. He progressed through various financial and management roles, including Finance Manager for different divisions, Director of Driveline Finance, and Controller. Lynch was appointed President of the Driveline Business Unit in November 2021 and subsequently became President & Chief Operating Officer in August 2025. He earned a Bachelor of Business Administration, a Master of Science in Finance, and a Master's in Accounting from Walsh College.
Terri Kemp, Senior Vice President & Chief of Staff
Terri Kemp serves as the Senior Vice President & Chief of Staff for Dauch (formerly American Axle & Manufacturing). Her appointment to this role was effective in August 2025.
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- Transition to Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Reliance on Internal Combustion Engines (ICE): American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc., which now operates as Dauch Corporation, is in a transition phase as the automotive industry shifts towards electric vehicles. The company’s historical reliance on internal combustion engine (ICE) technologies, despite also supporting electric and hybrid vehicles, exposes it to risks associated with the uncertain adoption rate of EVs, which can impact forecasting production volumes and profitability.
- Customer Concentration: The company is heavily dependent on sales to a few major automotive manufacturers, primarily General Motors (GM), Stellantis (formerly FCA), and Ford. Sales to GM alone constituted a significant portion of its consolidated net sales in past years (e.g., 42% in 2024). A reduction in sales to these key customers or a shift in their vehicle production strategies could materially and adversely affect Dauch's financial condition.
- High Debt and Integration Risks from Dowlais Merger: Dauch has historically faced challenges related to high debt. The recent merger with UK-based Dowlais Group, while intended for growth and diversification, introduces substantial integration risks, potential unanticipated liabilities, and an increase in debt levels. This merger could lead to significant near-term free operating cash flow degradation and potential challenges in achieving expected synergies and managing increased leverage.
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The rapid and accelerating global transition from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) represents an emerging threat. This shift threatens the company's established business lines that supply components for traditional ICE architectures. BEVs often feature simpler, more integrated drivetrains with fewer traditional parts, potentially reducing the demand for complex driveline components and specific metal-formed engine parts. This also opens the door for new specialized EV component suppliers or increased vertical integration by vehicle manufacturers, challenging the company's traditional role as a Tier 1 supplier.
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American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (DCH) operates in significant global markets for its driveline and metal forming technologies, primarily serving the automotive industry.
Addressable Markets:
- Automotive Driveline Systems: The global automotive driveline market was valued at approximately USD 474.82 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1221.78 billion by 2035. North America holds approximately 35% of the global market share, while Asia-Pacific accounts for about 25%.
- Electric & Hybrid Vehicle Driveline: The global market for electric and hybrid vehicle driveline systems was valued at USD 36.82 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to USD 99.10 billion by 2031.
- Automotive Metal Forming: The global metal forming market for the automotive sector was valued at USD 340.1 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 493.8 billion by 2035. Asia-Pacific is the largest consumer, accounting for 35% of global revenue, followed by North America, which holds approximately 35% of the global market share.
- Automotive Axles: The global automotive axle market size was valued at USD 66.23 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 81.63 billion by 2033. The Asia Pacific segment dominated the global market with a 50% share in 2024.
- Automotive Drive Shafts: The global automotive drive shaft market was valued at USD 11.8 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to USD 18.9 billion by 2035. Asia Pacific held the largest share, around 47% in 2025. North America also holds a significant share, estimated at 36.6% in 2025.
- Automotive Gears: The global automotive gears market size was valued at USD 42.04 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 57.39 billion by 2034. Asia-Pacific dominates this market with approximately 42% of the market share.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Dauch (DCH) over the next 2-3 years:
- Combination with Dowlais: The recently completed combination with Dowlais is a significant driver, positioning American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. as a premier global driveline and metal forming supplier with enhanced size and scale. The company's full-year 2026 financial targets, which include a partial year contribution from Dowlais, project sales in the range of $10.3 billion to $10.7 billion, a substantial increase from prior years, and anticipate synergy benefits of $50 million to $75 million, reaching a run rate of over $100 million by the end of the first year post-acquisition.
- Growth in Electrification and Electric Drive Unit (EDU) Contracts: American Axle & Manufacturing is strategically investing in electrification, aligning with the broader automotive industry's transition. Continued success in securing electric drive unit contracts, particularly in China and with European OEMs, is identified as a critical indicator of the company's competitive positioning in the electric vehicle (EV) supply chain, signaling new product development and market expansion in the EV sector.
- New Business Backlog and Key Program Volumes: Future revenue growth is expected from new business backlog and stronger volumes on key programs. For instance, Q1 2024 sales growth was primarily driven by a positive volume mix, including increased volumes for platforms such as GM's midsize truck (T1XX platform) and a Chery SUV in China. This indicates that securing and launching new programs with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and increasing production for existing successful programs will contribute to revenue growth.
- Strategic Initiatives and Mix Shift: The company plans to accelerate targeted growth through strategic resource and capital allocation. This includes pursuing new market opportunities and continuing a positive mix shift with product line management. These initiatives aim to optimize the product portfolio and expand into new profitable segments, contributing to overall revenue growth.
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Share Repurchases
No significant dollar amount of share repurchases by Dauch (formerly American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.) was readily available within the last 3-5 years in the provided information.Share Issuance
- The number of common shares outstanding increased significantly from 117,581,028 as of February 11, 2025, to 236 million shares as of March 13, 2026. This substantial increase is related to the company's recent combination with Dowlais Group plc.
- In early March 2026, Dauch Corp awarded 79,764 restricted stock units to its President Driveline and SVP Terri Kemp.
- An officer, Markus Bannert, reported beneficial ownership of 146,008 shares as of February 2026, which included 92,054 shares tied to restricted stock units assumed in connection with the business combination with Dowlais Group plc.
Outbound Investments
- Dauch Corporation acquired Dowlais Group plc and its subsidiaries (GKN Automotive and GKN Powder Metallurgy) on February 3, 2026. This was announced as a recommended cash and share combination.
- American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. completed the acquisition of Tekfor in 2023, which contributed to its sales for a five-month period.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures, net of asset sales, were $44.9 million in the first quarter of 2024.
- For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, capital expenditures, net of proceeds from the sale of property, plant and equipment and from government grants, amounted to $185.4 million.
- Higher capital expenditures in the full year 2023 contributed to a decrease in adjusted Free Cash Flow compared to 2022. The company anticipates maintaining capital expenditures at approximately 5% of sales.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 45.47 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.7 |
| Rev LTM | 14,636 |
| Op Inc LTM | 654 |
| FCF LTM | 561 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 474 |
| CFO LTM | 1,012 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 898 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 3.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Driveline | 4,062 | 4,253 | 4,177 | 4,064 | 3,745 |
| Metal Forming | 2,320 | 2,414 | 2,454 | 2,281 | 1,762 |
| Corporate and Eliminations | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intersegment sales | -546 | -543 | -552 | -542 | -350 |
| Casting | 0 | ||||
| Total | 5,837 | 6,125 | 6,080 | 5,802 | 5,157 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate and Eliminations | 2,770 | 1,002 | 1,013 | 1,027 | |
| Driveline | 2,341 | 2,421 | 2,554 | 2,542 | 2,926 |
| Metal Forming | 1,559 | 1,637 | 1,789 | 1,900 | 1,577 |
| Other | 1,133 | ||||
| Total | 6,670 | 5,060 | 5,356 | 5,469 | 5,636 |
Price Behavior
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.24 | 2.07 | 2.86 | 2.59 | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| Up Beta | 3.75 | 0.81 | 1.73 | 3.04 | -1.68 | 0.49 |
| Down Beta | 0.03 | 1.80 | 2.18 | 2.58 | -0.33 | -0.14 |
| Up Capture | 298% | 228% | 400% | 228% | 115% | 11% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 58 | 68 | 68 |
| Down Capture | 210% | 254% | 297% | 214% | 138% | 77% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 22 | 30 | 66 | 71 | 71 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DCH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCH | -17.8% | 65.8% | -0.26 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 7.4% | 19.6% | 0.25 | 45.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.0% | 12.9% | 1.20 | 53.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.8% | 28.1% | 0.72 | 26.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 28.8% | 19.7% | 1.16 | -22.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 15.5% | 13.8% | 0.80 | 21.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -45.9% | 43.1% | -1.30 | 18.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DCH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCH | -3.8% | 65.8% | -0.26 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.9% | 24.1% | 0.21 | 45.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.2% | 0.58 | 53.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.2% | 18.5% | 0.75 | 26.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 19.5% | 0.32 | -22.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.5% | 18.9% | 0.03 | 21.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.0% | 53.1% | 0.39 | 18.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DCH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCH | -1.9% | 65.8% | -0.26 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.4% | 22.2% | 0.51 | 45.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 53.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.4% | 16.1% | 0.58 | 26.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.1% | 18.0% | 0.31 | -22.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 21.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.0% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 18.2% |
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SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/17/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/17/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/11/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/30/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/07/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/12/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/31/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/08/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/14/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/01/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/02/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/27/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/8/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 10.30 Bil | 10.55 Bil | 10.80 Bil | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 10.50 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 1.30 Bil | 1.36 Bil | 1.43 Bil | 0.9% | Raised | Guidance: 1.35 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Synergy Benefits | 50.00 Mil | 62.50 Mil | 75.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Equity Income from China JV | 65.00 Mil | 70.00 Mil | 75.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow | 235.00 Mil | 280.00 Mil | 325.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 280.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.05 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Restructuring Cash Payments | 110.00 Mil | 130.00 Mil | 150.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Synergy Implementation Cash Payments | 100.00 Mil | 112.50 Mil | 125.00 Mil | ||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/13/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Sales | 10.30 Bil | 10.50 Bil | 10.70 Bil | 79.5% | Higher New | Actual: 5.85 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 1.30 Bil | 1.35 Bil | 1.40 Bil | 85.6% | Higher New | Actual: 727.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow | 235.00 Mil | 280.00 Mil | 325.00 Mil | 43.6% | Higher New | Actual: 195.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.05 | ||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/7/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Sales | 5.80 Bil | 5.85 Bil | 5.90 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.85 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 710.00 Mil | 727.50 Mil | 745.00 Mil | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 720.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted free cash flow | 180.00 Mil | 195.00 Mil | 210.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 195.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 5/6/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Walker, David B | Direct | Buy | 3162026 | 5.20 | 35,000 | 182,000 | 182,000 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Walker, David B | Direct | Buy | 3162026 | 5.20 | 35,000 | 182,000 | 182,000 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 4, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment Resources |
| AftermarketNews |
| Tire Review |
| Motor Age |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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