Which Big Stocks Expect Faster Growth But Got Cheaper This Year?
More on the AI trade: our AI storyline page collects our pieces on AI stocks.
Think of a rental building whose rents are about to rise by a third or more, selling for a quarter to a half less than it fetched in June. You’d want to know what the sellers know. That’s what happened to some of America’s biggest chip companies this year. We checked big U.S. stocks: how much investors pay per dollar of sales now versus this year’s peak, against how fast analysts expect sales to grow.
Who Are They?
| Stock | Price-to-sales vs 2026 peak | Expected sales growth |
|---|---|---|
| Applied Materials (AMAT) | −52% | +36% |
| AMD | −26% | +83% |
| Marvell (MRVL) | −55% | +62% |
| Lam Research (LRCX) | −56% | +52% |
Each is expected to grow sales faster next year than last, yet investors now pay 26% to 56% less per dollar of sales than at the peak.
All four sit in S&P 500 funds, so a portfolio of a few million dollars usually owns all of them already. Do you know how much? A Trefis partner firm can add it up with you in a free 15-minute call.
See more lines: how we measured, and who else
Price-to-sales: market value ÷ trailing 12-month revenue by trading day, Trefis valuation history; peak = highest in 2026; latest = Nov 10 close. Expected growth: analyst consensus (FMP) for the fiscal year covering 2027 against the fiscal year before it (consensus if not yet reported, reported figures if it is): Applied, years to October; AMD, calendar years; Marvell, years to January 2028 and 2027; Lam, years to June 2027 and 2026. Others with expected growth of 15%+ and a multiple 30%+ below its 2026 peak: Broadcom, KLA, Micron, SanDisk, Western Digital, Seagate, Nvidia, Vertiv, Palantir and Alphabet.
What’s The Shared Reason?
Investors stopped paying up for the forecasts, which still point to fast growth. Two shocks did it: a June crash in Korean chip stocks led by SK Hynix and Samsung, and an October slide in chip stocks, eight days straight, the longest since 2008, with bond yields above 5%. Higher rates make distant growth worth less today, and the fastest growers lose the most.
The forecasts still point up; the price of believing them fell. If 2027 arrives as expected, these multiples look too low. If AI spending peaks, they were right to fall. Nvidia’s report later this month and Applied’s on Thursday are the next tests.
What Should You Ask Next?
- Can Applied Materials stock deliver 36% sales growth? What would have to happen.
- Applied Materials stock at $371: why is it half price? Where this series started.
- 5 beaten-down growth stocks with strong risk-reward
Cheap on paper isn’t the same as right for you. Get a second opinion on your chip holdings in a free 15-minute call with a Trefis partner firm.
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.