Can Applied Materials Stock Deliver 36% Sales Growth?

November 11th, 2026 · by Trefis Team
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Every new AI chip needs a factory, and every factory needs hundreds of costly machines. Applied Materials sells many of them. When TSMC, Samsung or Micron decide to build, Applied’s sales follow.

Analysts expect Applied’s revenue to rise about 36%, from about $34 billion in the fiscal year that ended in October 2026 to $47 billion in the year to October 2027. In the three fiscal years to October 2025 it grew about 3% a year; the year just ended is expected to bring about 21%. So the forecast is a break, not a trend.

That kind of break moves more than chip stocks. In a portfolio of a few million dollars, Applied and memory makers like Micron sit in S&P 500 index funds. Would your plan hold if the forecast slips? A Trefis partner firm can test it with you in a free 15-minute call.

Image from Pixabay

Isn’t Half Of It Already Here?

Yes, more than half. Applied guided its quarter ending in October to $10.25 billion, about 51% more than a year earlier. Four quarters at that pace is about $41 billion. The jump has already started. The question is whether it lasts.

What Has To Happen For The Rest?

  • Memory makers keep building. Micron plans about $25 billion of capital spending in the first half of its new fiscal year, and more in the second; Samsung plans about $63 billion this year.
  • TSMC spends more in 2027. It plans $60 to $64 billion this year; in July, Citi estimated $77 billion next year. TSMC itself says it is “prudent” about 2027.
  • The industry hits a record. Lam Research expects chip-equipment spending above $200 billion in 2027. The industry group SEMI’s July forecast points to about $175 billion.
  • China holds. China was 28% of Applied’s sales last quarter, down from 35%, and U.S. export rules keep limiting what Applied can sell there.

And one physical limit: Applied says the amount of finished cleanroom space will decide what the industry can ship next year.

Plausible, not certain. Applied’s own guidance already runs at about $41 billion a year. Reaching $47 billion needs memory spending to keep climbing and enough cleanrooms to put the machines in. Thursday’s report is the first test.

What Should You Ask Next?

Before Thursday, it’s worth knowing how much of your money rides on one industry’s spending plans. Get a second opinion in a free 15-minute call with a Trefis partner firm.

For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.

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