Marvell Technology (MRVL)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $98.35 | Market Cap: $84.8 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
Marvell Technology (MRVL)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $98.35Market Cap: $84.8 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 650x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.1% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -44% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 650x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.1% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MRVL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The period from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025, saw significant positive developments for Marvell Technology (MRVL) that contributed to its stock movement.
**1. Strong Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings and Upbeat Guidance.** Marvell Technology reported record net revenue of $2.075 billion for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, exceeding guidance and representing a 37% year-over-year increase. The company also reported a substantial GAAP net income of $1.901 billion, a significant turnaround from a net loss in the prior year. This strong performance was driven by robust demand for data center products, with the company forecasting over 40% full-year revenue growth and accelerating data center revenue growth for the next fiscal year.
**2. Acquisition of Celestial AI.** Marvell announced its definitive agreement to acquire Celestial AI, a pioneer in Photonic Fabric technology, for an upfront consideration of approximately $3.25 billion, with the potential to increase to $5.5 billion based on performance milestones. This strategic acquisition is set to accelerate Marvell's connectivity strategy for next-generation AI and cloud data centers, expanding its leadership in optical interconnects and positioning it at the forefront of the AI infrastructure market.
**3. Increased Share Repurchase Program and Insider Confidence.** In September 2025, Marvell's Board of Directors authorized a new $5 billion share repurchase program, including a $1 billion accelerated share repurchase. This move, which allows the company to buy back up to 7.8% of its stock, signals management's belief that the stock is undervalued and demonstrates confidence in future performance. Additionally, several top executives, including the CEO, purchased Marvell stock with their own money in September 2025, with individual transactions ranging from approximately $265,000 to over $1 million.
**4. Accelerated Growth in Data Center and 5G Infrastructure Markets.** The company experienced substantial growth in its data center segment, with revenue increasing 78% year-over-year in Q4 fiscal year 2025 due to high demand for semiconductor solutions. Furthermore, recovery in Marvell's multi-market businesses and strong demand in 5G infrastructure contributed to overall revenue expansion.
**5. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Increases.** Following these developments, several analysts reiterated "buy" or "outperform" ratings and raised their price targets for Marvell Technology. For instance, Needham & Company LLC increased their price target from $95.00 to $120.00, and Evercore ISI upped theirs from $122.00 to $156.00. Roth Capital Markets also raised its price target to $135.00 from $105.00. This reflected improved visibility for the company and its strengthened position in key growth areas like AI.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MRVL Return | 80% | 85% | -57% | 64% | 84% | -11% | 280% |
| Peers Return | 40% | 21% | 11% | 25% | -6% | 39% | 207% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MRVL Win Rate | 75% | 75% | 33% | 58% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 44% | 33% | 46% | 31% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MRVL Max Drawdown | -35% | -16% | -59% | -6% | -7% | -55% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -8% | -26% | -5% | -16% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KLAC, MCHP, FSLR, AMBQ, GLSA. See MRVL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MRVL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -62.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 163.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 672 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -40.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -77.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 336.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 410 days | 1480 days |
Compare to KLAC, MCHP, FSLR, AMBQ, GLSA
In The Past
Marvell Technology's stock fell -62.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/7/2021. A -62.1% loss requires a 163.9% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MRVL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 19.1% | 19.1% | -8.9% |
| 03312025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 34.1% | 63.2% | -19.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 19.1% | 19.1% | -8.9% |
| 03312025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 34.1% | 63.2% | -19.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Marvell Technology
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 98.19 |
| Mkt Cap | 59.8 |
| Rev LTM | 4,343 |
| Op Inc LTM | 435 |
| FCF LTM | 754 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,520 |
| CFO LTM | 841 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,792 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 18.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 59.8 |
| P/S | 8.7 |
| P/EBIT | 338.8 |
| P/E | -84.3 |
| P/CFO | 38.7 |
| Total Yield | 2.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 27.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 52.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 18.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 92.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 19.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 36.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -0.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 22.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Design, development and sale of integrated circuits | 5,508 | 5,920 | 4,462 | 2,969 | |
| Networking | 1,378 | ||||
| Other | 184 | ||||
| Storage | 1,138 | ||||
| Total | 5,508 | 5,920 | 4,462 | 2,969 | 2,699 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Design, development and sale of integrated circuits | -933 | -164 | |||
| Total | -933 | -164 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 8292025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5302025 | 10-Q 5/3/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3122025 | 10-K 2/1/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12042024 | 10-Q 11/2/2024 |
| 7312024 | 8302024 | 10-Q 8/3/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5312024 | 10-Q 5/4/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3132024 | 10-K 2/3/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12012023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8252023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 5262023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3092023 | 10-K 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12022022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 8262022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 5272022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3102022 | 10-K 1/29/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12032021 | 10-Q 10/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| FinViz |