Buy, Sell Or Hold Coinbase Stock At $136?
Coinbase is a way to own a piece of the crypto business through an ordinary brokerage account. At $136 it has given back about two-thirds of its value in 16 months. Is that a bargain or a warning? We’ll take the question seriously, with the numbers. But keep one thing in mind as you read: a dollar in Coinbase has behaved like more than a dollar in Bitcoin, on the way down especially. So before “buy or sell,” it’s worth knowing how much crypto you already carry. We’ll come back to that.
“Leverage is a magnifying glass. It makes the bad days bigger too.” – Anonymous
What Happened To Coinbase Stock?
Since Bitcoin peaked on Oct 6, 2025, the crypto stocks have fallen much further than the coin. Then something odd happened: since Bitcoin’s June 30 low, Bitcoin and Strategy have bounced, and Coinbase hasn’t.
| Stock or asset | Since Oct 6, 2025 | Since Jun 30, 2026 | Nov 9 close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | −40% | +29% | $75,259 |
| IBIT | −41% | +27% | $42.32 |
| Coinbase | −65% | −7% | $136.10 |
| Strategy | −65% | +44% | $125.59 |
| S&P 500 | +12% | +1% | 7,550 |
Trefis price data, closing prices; Bitcoin at the Nov 9 UTC day close (Coinbase exchange). Coinbase’s own peak was $419.78 on Jul 18, 2025; Friday’s $134.76 close was the lowest since.
Last week added to it. Coinbase lost 7.3% from the Nov 3 election-day close to Friday, three times the S&P 500’s loss, most of it on Thursday, Nov 5, when the AI trade unwound and Coinbase fell 9.7%. When investors back away from risk, crypto stocks are near the front of the line.
Why Did Buyers Step Away From Coinbase?
Plainly: because Coinbase makes most of its money when people trade crypto, and people trade less when prices fall. In the third quarter its trading revenue was $590 million, down 44% from a year earlier. Over the last 12 months total revenue fell 27%.
That explains why it fell with Bitcoin. Why it didn’t bounce with Bitcoin since June is the more interesting part. Coinbase’s biggest line outside trading is stablecoins: it earns a large share of the interest on USDC and pays some back to customers as rewards. Stablecoin revenue was $307 million in the third quarter. Banks want those rewards limited, because an exchange paying interest on a digital dollar looks to them like a bank account without bank rules. That fight runs through both parties, as we wrote on Nov 2 in Banks, Not Democrats, Threaten Coinbase Stock At $143. The crypto trading bill failed a key Senate vote 49 to 50 in September, and Democrats won both chambers on Nov 3. So buyers see two question marks at once: lower trading, and a threat to the line that was supposed to replace it.
What would bring them back? Trading volume, first, which tends to return when Bitcoin rises for a while. Second, a crypto bill that leaves stablecoin rewards standing. Third, a twist: stablecoin income rises with interest rates. Sticky inflation, which our Oct 20 piece Inflation Is Back. Is A Stock Market Crash Next? tied to war, immigration, taxes and AI spending, is bad for Bitcoin’s price but props up that part of Coinbase’s income.
How Hard Did Crypto Stocks Fall In The Last Winter?
This is the table every Coinbase holder should see.
| 2021-22 winter | Fall | Months to bottom | Months back to peak |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coinbase | −91% | 14 | 30 |
| Strategy | −89% | 23 | 14 |
| Bitcoin | −77% | 12 | 15 |
| Ether | −79% | 7 | 38 |
Trefis price data; months rounded. Coinbase took 909 trading days, about three and a half years, from its November 2021 peak to get back above it in June 2025.
Put it in plain money. Every $1 in Bitcoin at the 2021 peak was worth 23 cents at the bottom. Every $1 in Coinbase was worth 9 cents. Then the rebound was spectacular: Coinbase rose more than elevenfold from its December 2022 low to June 2025. Leverage works both ways. The catch is that you have to survive the first part to collect the second.
And now? Coinbase is down 68% from its peak and Strategy 73%, while Bitcoin is down 40%. Strategy’s low this time was down 83%; Coinbase’s low was Friday’s close.
What Are You Paying For?
Here’s Coinbase next to the other stocks people buy for crypto exposure, at Monday’s close.
| Stock | Market value | Revenue growth, 12 mo | Op margin, 12 mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coinbase | $36.0B | −27% | 6% |
| Robinhood | $74.8B | +21% | 46% |
| Strategy | $53.4B | +4% | −9% |
| Riot Platforms | $6.6B | +6% | −74% |
| MARA Holdings | $2.6B | +1% | −126% |
Trefis data, Nov 9 close. Robinhood is the only one growing fast and earning a fat margin.
Coinbase still makes real cash: $1.41 billion of free cash flow over the last 12 months, 25 cents per dollar of sales. It trades at about 6 times sales. But its 12-month net result is a loss of about $700 million, swung by the value of crypto it holds, so a price-to-earnings ratio means little right now. The quarter shows the swing: third-quarter results included about $715 million of pre-tax gains on its crypto, and adjusted net income was about $78 million. The cushion is that about half of revenue now comes from subscriptions and services such as stablecoins and staking, which don’t vanish when traders go quiet.
| Stock | Below 52-wk high | 12-month return | Down days vs S&P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coinbase | −57% | −56% | 4.1x |
| Robinhood | −39% | −36% | 4.1x |
| Strategy | −48% | −48% | 4.1x |
| Riot Platforms | −38% | +6% | 4.1x |
| MARA Holdings | −58% | −58% | 4.3x |
Trefis data, Nov 9 close. “Down days vs S&P” is Trefis down capture: how much each stock moved in total on the days the S&P 500 fell over the past year, per unit of the S&P’s total fall on those days.
That last column is the leverage in one number. On the S&P 500’s down days, all five crypto stocks have fallen about four times as much. Coinbase’s up capture is lower, about 2.7 times. More on the way down than on the way up: that’s the shape of a leveraged bet.
How Low Can It Go?
If Coinbase fell as far from its peak as it did in the last winter, 91%, it would be near $38. Another 40% from here would be about $82. Those aren’t forecasts. They’re the numbers to set beside your position, so the decision is made on a calm day. The other side: Coinbase needs to more than triple to get back to $419.78. It did much more than that from its 2022 low, over two and a half years.
So, Buy, Sell Or Hold?
Hold the question up to what you want to own. If you want crypto exposure, Coinbase is a leveraged way to get it, with a business attached: real cash flow and a stablecoin line that grows with rates, but trading revenue that shrinks in a winter and a bank fight over that same line. Bitcoin itself, or a Bitcoin ETF like IBIT, is the plainer way. Neither is a call on the price. What you’re choosing is how much swing you want per dollar.
What would change the picture? A sustained rise in trading volume, the stablecoin rewards surviving the next crypto bill, and Coinbase’s next report, due around February. Watch those, not the daily price.
What’s The Bigger Number?
Look past this winter. Over three years, even after this fall, Coinbase is up about 46% and its 12-month revenue has roughly doubled from the 2023 low point. The part that will still matter in 2030 is whether Coinbase becomes the plumbing for digital dollars and crypto custody, or stays a trading desk whose income rides Bitcoin’s mood. That’s a slow question, answered in its revenue mix quarter by quarter.
How Much Crypto Are You Really Carrying?
Here’s the question we promised. If you own Coinbase, Strategy, a Bitcoin ETF and an S&P 500 fund (Coinbase and Robinhood are both index members), your crypto risk is bigger than any one line suggests. Concrete steps for this week:
1. Count crypto stocks at extra weight. Since Bitcoin’s peak, Coinbase has fallen about 1.6 times as much as Bitcoin. When you add up your crypto exposure, count each $1 of Coinbase or Strategy as roughly $1.5 to $2 of Bitcoin.
2. Set one ceiling for all of it. Coin, ETF and stocks together, sized so a fall like 2022’s wouldn’t change your plans.
3. Decide your buy and trim levels now. Under the ceiling: add in set amounts at preset prices. Over it after a rebound: trim back.
What this replaces: buying Coinbase because it’s “down 68%,” or dumping it at the low out of frustration. The risk: crypto stocks can fall further and stay down for years, as Coinbase did from 2021 to 2025. A ceiling keeps that from sinking the rest of your plan.
What Are The Pros Watching?
Monthly trading volumes on the big exchanges. The stablecoin-rewards language in any 2027 crypto bill, and the banking regulators’ rules. Bitcoin ETF flows. Rates, which feed Coinbase’s stablecoin income. And Bitcoin against Strategy’s $75,456 average cost. Each is a reason to check your ceiling, not to tear up the plan.
Coinbase is crypto with leverage and a business attached. It fell 91% in the last winter while Bitcoin fell 77%, rose more than elevenfold off its low, and took about three and a half years to get back above its old peak. Now it’s down 68% vs Bitcoin’s 40%, near its low, with trading revenue down and a bank fight over stablecoin rewards. Count it at extra weight in one crypto ceiling, and set buy and trim levels before the next big move.
What Should You Ask Next?
- Can Bitcoin Bounce Back To $125,000?
- How Long Will Strategy’s Cash Last?
- Banks, Not Democrats, Threaten Coinbase Stock At $143
Follow this story with us: we’ll update the crypto-stock table after Coinbase’s next report.
How Much Swing Can Your Plan Take?
Crypto rewards a plan more than a prediction. If you have $1 million or more invested, see how much crypto fits your plan in a free 15-minute call with a Trefis partner firm.
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.