Is Apple Stock Really A Safe Bet At $351?
Start here: will the midterms move your stocks?
When the market fell last week, Apple didn’t. So is Apple the safe place to be? It’s a fair question, and we’ll answer it with data: every election week, every big Apple fall since 2006, and the stocks people usually call safe. The short version: Apple is a great business that has behaved like a shelter lately, but not always, and the price you pay decides how safe it really is. There’s a bigger question under this one: if you own an S&P 500 fund, you already own a lot of Apple, so how much more do you want? We’ll come back to that at the end.
“Safe is a price, not a stock.” – Anonymous
Why Did Investors Run To Apple Last Week?
Here’s the why, plainly. On Thursday, Nov 5, the AI trade unwound: chips, power and data-center builders fell hard, and the S&P 500 dropped 4.4% in a day. The trigger was the data-center backlash, including the Texas governor-elect’s moratorium pledge. Apple fell just 1.5% that day. The reason is simple: Apple isn’t priced on building AI data centers. It sells phones and services to the owners of more than 2.5 billion active devices, and it spends far less on AI build-out than the other tech giants. When money left the AI spenders, Apple was one of the big, profitable places it went.
Apple also jumped 5.3% on Nov 4, the day after the vote, a day the S&P 500 rose 1.6%. From the election-day close through Friday it gained 3.2%, along with the other classic shelters: Costco, Berkshire Hathaway and Procter & Gamble all rose too.
Has Apple Always Been A Shelter In Election Weeks?
No. Here’s every election since 2006. The 12-month column starts from the day-3 close: what you’d have earned buying after the week was over.
| Election | Apple, 3 days | S&P, 3 days | Apple, next 12 mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | +3.2% | −0.1% | +104.5% |
| 2008 | −11.5% | −7.4% | +105.1% |
| 2010 | +2.5% | +2.7% | +26.2% |
| 2012 | −5.7% | −3.4% | −2.7% |
| 2014 | +0.8% | +1.0% | +12.5% |
| 2016 | −2.4% | +1.2% | +63.0% |
| 2018 | +0.7% | +0.9% | +30.0% |
| 2020 | +7.7% | +4.2% | +27.5% |
| 2022 | +7.3% | +4.3% | +25.9% |
| 2024 | +1.7% | +3.7% | +21.0% |
| 2026 | +3.2% | −2.5% | ? |
Trefis price data, Apple with dividends reinvested. In the two worst market election weeks before this one, 2008 and 2012, Apple fell more than the S&P 500.
So last week was the exception, not the rule. Apple rose while the market fell in only two of 11 election weeks: 2006 and 2026. What the table does show is the business: Apple was higher a year later after nine of 10 elections. The week didn’t tell you much. Across every sector fund, an election-week move pointed the same way as the next year only about half the time.
How Does Apple Compare With The Classic “Safe” Stocks?
Investors usually mean a short list when they say safe: Berkshire Hathaway, Costco, Walmart, Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble. Here’s Apple next to them, measured at Monday’s close.
| Stock | P/E | Revenue growth, 12 mo | Down capture |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apple | 39 | +15% | 52¢ |
| Berkshire | 16 | +10% | rose |
| Costco | 51 | +10% | rose |
| Walmart | 45 | +6% | rose |
| Coca-Cola | 28 | +7% | rose |
| Procter & Gamble | 24 | +4% | rose |
Trefis data, Nov 9 close. Down capture: how much the stock moved in total, per $1 the S&P 500 (SPY) lost, across SPY’s down days over the past year. Apple lost about 52 cents; the other five actually gained.
Two things stand out. Apple is growing faster than any of the five, at 15% a year. But on the market’s bad days it still fell about half as much as the market, while the true shelters held up or rose. Apple moves with the market more than its “safe” reputation suggests; its 5-year beta is 1.15. It’s a growth stock with a fortress balance sheet, not a bond.
How Did The “Safe” Stocks Do In Real Crashes?
Every one of them has fallen a long way. Here’s each one’s worst fall in the three big selloffs of the past 20 years.
| Stock | 2007-09 | 2020 | 2022-23 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apple | −60.9% | −31.4% | −30.9% |
| Berkshire | −53.9% | −29.6% | −26.6% |
| Costco | −48.0% | −13.6% | −31.4% |
| Walmart | −26.2% | −13.1% | −25.7% |
| Coca-Cola | −40.6% | −37.0% | −17.3% |
| Procter & Gamble | −39.0% | −23.2% | −23.8% |
| S&P 500 | −56.8% | −33.9% | −25.4% |
Trefis price data, peak to low within each period; stocks with dividends reinvested, S&P 500 index price only. In 2008 Apple fell further than the S&P 500, and further than every “safe” name.
Here’s the twist: Apple fell hardest in 2008 but came back fastest. It took 457 trading days to get back to its old high, under two years. Berkshire took 1,305 trading days and the S&P 500 took 1,376, more than five years. Safe, it turns out, means two different things: not falling far, and coming back fast. Walmart does the first. Apple has done the second.
How Low Can Apple Go?
Here are all eight of Apple’s falls of 30% or more since 2006. Every one came back.
| Fall (peak to low) | Depth | Trading days to new high |
|---|---|---|
| Jan-Jul 2006 | −40.8% | 213 |
| Dec 2007-Jan 2009 | −60.9% | 457 |
| Sep 2012-Apr 2013 | −43.8% | 454 |
| May 2015-May 2016 | −30.4% | 427 |
| Oct 2018-Jan 2019 | −38.5% | 256 |
| Feb-Mar 2020 | −31.4% | 79 |
| Jan 2022-Jan 2023 | −30.9% | 355 |
| Dec 2024-Apr 2025 | −33.4% | 203 |
Trefis price data, with dividends reinvested. “Trading days to new high” counts from the peak. The median fall was about 36%, and the median trip back took about 306 trading days, roughly 14 months.
That’s a 30% fall roughly every two and a half years. The last one came in early 2025, during the tariff shock, and Apple was back at a new high by October 2025. A median-size fall from Monday’s $350.69 would take Apple to about $225. Decide now whether that’s a price you’d buy, hold or trim at.
What Are You Paying For Apple Today?
This is where “safe” gets tested. Apple is a cash machine: $479 billion of revenue in the past 12 months, an operating margin of 33% (above its 5-year average of 31%), and $136 billion of free cash flow. It has bought back $272 billion of its own stock in three years.
But the price has run ahead of the business. Over three years the stock gained about 95%, while revenue grew about 25%. Investors now pay about 44% more for each dollar of Apple’s sales than three years ago, after allowing for buybacks. At a P/E of 39, Apple earns about $2.56 a year for every $100 of stock, while a 10-year Treasury pays about $4.88. That’s a high price for Apple; for much of the past decade its P/E sat well below 30. Here’s what a lower P/E would mean at today’s earnings:
| If Apple’s P/E were | Price at today’s earnings | vs Monday |
|---|---|---|
| 39 (Monday) | $351 | n/a |
| 30 | $269 | −23% |
| 25 | $224 | −36% |
| 20 | $179 | −49% |
Our arithmetic: Monday’s price divided by its P/E, times the new P/E. Earnings growth would offset some of it; this is a sizing tool, not a forecast.
What Could Push Buyers Away, Or Keep Them Coming?
AI: spender or laggard? AI spending isn’t stopping. An outright US stop on data centers would hand the lead to China, and we don’t think that’s in the cards. The big cloud companies are spending about $1.15 for every $1 of cash they bring in, and even Nike cut jobs this year as it leaned on automation, as we laid out in Why Big Tech Spends $1.15 Per $1 Of Cash. Apple has mostly sat that race out and returned cash instead. That’s why it held up last week. If AI buyers come back with a clear reason, money that hid in Apple may rotate out again. If Apple’s own AI features drive a new upgrade cycle, buyers have a reason to stay.
Memory costs. The same AI boom has pushed up memory chip prices, and Apple buys a lot of memory. We looked at what that means for its margins in What Will Decide Apple Stock As Memory Costs Rise?
China and tariffs. Apple relies on partners in China for much of its manufacturing and makes 17% of its sales in Greater China, and tariff policy runs mostly through the White House, not the Congress voters just changed. The 2025 tariff shock was Apple’s last 30% fall.
Inflation and rates. Our Oct 20 piece, Inflation Is Back. Is A Stock Market Crash Next?, named war, immigration and taxes as the fuel, with AI spending as a fourth. When a Treasury pays more than a stock earns, the stock’s P/E has less room. That matters more at 39 times earnings than at 24.
What’s The Bigger Number?
Look past this month. Over the past five years Apple’s stock gained about 138%, and every one of its eight 30% falls since 2006 came back, the slowest in under two years. The part that will still matter in 2027 and 2030 is whether Apple keeps growing its earnings fast enough to grow into its price. Great companies can be poor buys at the wrong price for a while; Apple’s 2012-13 fall of 44% came while the business stayed highly profitable.
How Much Apple Do You Already Own?
Here’s the question we promised to come back to. Apple is the largest US company, worth about $5 trillion, and about 7.9% of an S&P 500 fund such as SPY (State Street holdings as of Nov 6). Add a tech fund or a growth fund, plus shares you bought directly, and many investors hold far more Apple than they think. That’s not a problem if it’s a choice.
One concrete thing to do this week: add it up, then write three lines next to the total.
1. Your ceiling. The most of your portfolio you want in Apple, counting your funds.
2. Your buy level. If you’re under the ceiling, the price at which you’d add, in set amounts: a median 30%+ fall puts it near $225.
3. Your trim rule. If Apple keeps rising and pushes you over the ceiling, trim back to it. You don’t have to sell a winner to protect it; you just keep it the size you chose.
What this replaces: piling into Apple because it held up last week, or treating it as cash. The risk: if the P/E falls back toward its history while earnings stall, Apple can lose a third of its value without anything going wrong in the business. A ceiling keeps that from sinking your plan.
What Are The Pros Watching?
iPhone demand and whether AI features drive upgrades. Memory prices and Apple’s gross margin. China sales and any new tariff moves. And rates: the 10-year Treasury against Apple’s 2.56% earnings yield. Each is a reason to check your ceiling. None is a reason to tear up your plan.
Apple is a great business, but “safe” depends on what you pay. It rose 3.2% in election week while the S&P 500 fell 2.5%, yet in the two worst earlier election weeks it fell more than the market, and in 2008 it fell 61%. It has fallen 30% or more eight times since 2006 and came back every time, faster than most. At 39 times earnings it costs more than it usually has. Count the Apple in your funds, and set a ceiling, a buy level and a trim rule.
What Should You Ask Next?
- Is a midterm year better or worse for stocks than a presidential year? Stocks After Midterms Vs Presidential Elections: Which Year Is Better?
- If the AI trade comes back, does the money that hid in Apple leave? Start with Is The AI Trade Officially In Trouble?
- Will higher memory prices squeeze Apple’s margins? What Will Decide Apple Stock As Memory Costs Rise?
Follow this story with us: we’ll keep Apple’s table current and come back after its next report.
Is Your “Safe” Money Really Safe?
One week rarely decides a year. If you have $1 million or more invested, see whether your plan fits what comes next in a free 15-minute call with a Trefis partner firm.
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.