Coinbase Global (COIN)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $274.0 | Market Cap: $69.9 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Financial Exchanges & Data
Coinbase Global (COIN)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $274.0Market Cap: $69.9 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Financial Exchanges & Data
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 49% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 12x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 24x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 48x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 86% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Crypto & Blockchain, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Cryptocurrency Exchanges, and Digital Asset Custody. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 49% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Crypto & Blockchain, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Cryptocurrency Exchanges, and Digital Asset Custody. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 12x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 24x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 48x |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 86% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
COIN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Overall Cryptocurrency Market Volatility and Bitcoin's Correction
Coinbase's stock experienced significant downward pressure due to broad cryptocurrency market volatility and a sharp correction in Bitcoin. For instance, by late November 2025, Bitcoin was down approximately 30% from its peaks, contributing to a nearly 40% decline in Coinbase's shares from July highs and erasing its year-to-date gains by November 27, 2025.
2. Perceived Overvaluation and Bearish Investor Sentiment
Analysts suggested that Coinbase's stock might be overvalued, contributing to negative sentiment. As of November 2025, the stock was trading significantly below its 52-week high of $444.65 (reached July 17, 2025), with the market sentiment leaning bearish and the Fear & Greed Index indicating "Fear" in early December 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| COIN Return | - | - | -86% | 391% | 43% | 10% | 9% |
| Peers Return | 23% | 9% | -15% | 15% | 66% | 42% | 208% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| COIN Win Rate | - | 38% | 33% | 75% | 50% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 37% | 38% | 52% | 58% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| COIN Max Drawdown | - | - | -87% | -6% | -33% | -39% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -7% | -40% | -15% | -12% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HOOD, ICE, PYPL, MGLD, SPGI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | COIN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -90.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 998.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 911 days | 464 days |
Compare to HOOD, ICE, PYPL, MGLD, SPGI
In The Past
Coinbase Global's stock fell -90.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/9/2021. A -90.9% loss requires a 998.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to COIN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| 12312024 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 35.1% | 11.5% | -39.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| 12312024 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 35.1% | 11.5% | -39.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Coinbase Global
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 148.10 |
| Mkt Cap | 80.6 |
| Rev LTM | 9,781 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,398 |
| FCF LTM | 2,942 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,372 |
| CFO LTM | 3,341 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,705 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 32.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 26.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 26.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 80.6 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| P/EBIT | 22.0 |
| P/E | 31.1 |
| P/CFO | 23.0 |
| Total Yield | 3.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -10.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 50.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -13.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -11.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -20.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -21.3% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2132025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2212023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |