Netflix Stock At $64: Better Than Disney?
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A year ago, a share of Disney and a share of Netflix cost about the same, roughly $112 each after Netflix’s 10-for-1 split. On Monday Disney closed at $119.12 and Netflix at $63.95. So if a correction in tech turns into something bigger, which would you rather hold? We’ll answer that with each stock’s worst falls. There’s a bigger question underneath, though: how far can each one fall, and have you sized your position for it? We’ll come back to that at the end.
“Know the worst case before you need it.” – Anonymous
What Does Everyone Already Know?
The AI trade has been coming apart for a month. The Nasdaq fell 5.5% on November 5 alone. Nvidia closed Monday 25% below its high. We’ve been covering what’s happening with AI stocks all week. Investors also face Friday’s strong October jobs report, and futures pricing that put the odds of a December Fed rate hike at about 77-80% after it, per CME FedWatch.
Disney held up through all of it. Here’s Monday’s close, Trefis data:
| Stock | Mon close | Past month | Past year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Disney | $119.12 | +10.2% | +6.1% |
| Netflix | $63.95 | −9.0% | −42.9% |
| Nvidia | $178.67 | −22.1% | −10.2% |
Disney rose while the chip stocks fell. Netflix fell with them, and it had already been falling for most of the year.
Why the split? Netflix’s year had two blows. In February it walked away from its deal for Warner Bros. Discovery’s studios and streaming business after Paramount Skydance outbid it, collecting a $2.8 billion breakup fee. Then on October 20 its third-quarter report cut its 2026 advertising revenue forecast to about $2.7 billion from about $3 billion, even as profit beat analysts’ estimates. Disney has no single headline behind its rise. Its price relative to earnings, about 24 on Trefis data, is below its 2022-24 levels, and its business is built on parks, cruises and sports, not data centers. In an AI selloff, “not an AI stock” has been worth something.
How Far Has Each One Fallen Before?
A month’s moves tell you how people feel now. A worst fall tells you what owning the stock can actually cost. Here are the two big ones in the last seven years, measured from the prior record close in the Trefis price history:
| Fall | Disney | Netflix | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | −43.4% | −28.7% | −33.9% |
| Back to the high | 8 months | 1 month | 5 months |
| 2021-23 | −60.7% | −75.9% | −25.4% |
| Back to the high | Not yet | 27 months | 15 months |
Neither is a safe harbor. Disney fell harder in 2020, Netflix fell harder in 2022, and both fell much more than the S&P 500 in 2022.
Here’s what the one-year view hides. Disney’s record close was $201.91 in March 2021. It bottomed at $79.32 in October 2023 and is still 41.0% below that record today. “Near its high” means near its high for the year, not for the decade. Netflix took its 76% fall in six months, from November 2021 to May 2022, then got back to its old high by August 2024 and kept going to a new record of $133.91 in June 2025. It’s 52.2% below that record now, and its October 28 close of $61.99 was the low so far.
See more lines: the deeper history
Disney fell 57.3% from May 2007 to March 2009 and got back to its high in April 2010. Netflix fell 82.0% from July 2011 to September 2012 and recovered by September 2013. The S&P 500’s 2007-09 fall was 56.8%. All price only, split-adjusted, Trefis price history. “Back to the high” counts from the low to the first close at or above the prior record. Netflix’s 2020 figure is measured from its July 2018 record, because it had not made a new high before the crash.
So Which Would You Rather Own Through A Correction?
The honest answer: the market has chosen Disney for the last year, and for a plain reason. It isn’t tied to the AI trade, and Netflix had a rough year of its own. But the history says either one can lose more than half its value, and the one that looked safer in one crash was the one that fell harder in the next. That’s why “which one?” is the smaller question. The bigger one is how much of each you can hold through its worst case without selling at the bottom.
What Can You Do This Week?
Hold a position that works whichever way the next month goes. Three steps:
1. Size each by its worst fall. Pick the most you’d accept losing on one stock, say 4% of your portfolio. Divide by the worst fall. For Disney, 4% ÷ 61% is about a 6.5% position. For Netflix, 4% ÷ 76% is about 5%. If you hold more than that, trim back to that size on a calm day. If you hold less, there’s no rush.
2. Set a commitment price for the one you don’t own. Write down the price at which you’d happily buy, before the market offers it, and leave a limit order there. As an example only: Netflix near $55, below its October low, or Disney near $100, below where it started 2026 ($111.85 on January 2). If the price never comes, you keep the cash. If it does, you buy on a plan instead of on a headline.
3. Don’t trade the report. Disney reports before the open on November 17. One quarter won’t change how far the stock can fall. Decide your size before the number comes out, not after the first hour of trading.
What it replaces: buying Disney because it held up, or selling Netflix because it didn’t. Both are reactions to the last month, and in 2020 and 2022 the stock that had held up was not the one that held up next.
What to watch: Disney’s outlook for its parks and streaming profit on November 17; whether Netflix’s ad business gets back on its forecast; and whether the AI selloff spreads from chips to the rest of the market. If you also own a lot of tech through index funds, count that first. We showed how in How Much AI Do You Really Own?
The market already chose Disney; history says size both. Disney’s Monday close was its highest in a year, but 41.0% below its 2021 record, and it hasn’t recovered from a 60.7% fall. Netflix is 52.2% below its 2025 record, but it recovered from a 75.9% fall in 27 months. Size each by its worst fall, set a commitment price for the one you don’t own, and decide before Disney’s November 17 report.
What’s The Bigger Idea?
Know the worst case before you need it. Every stock has a record of how far it fell and how long it took to come back, and that record, not the last month, is the risk you’ll actually live through. The investors who held Netflix through 2022 and got paid were the ones who sized it so a 76% fall didn’t force them out. The longer number is in the deeper history: both stocks have been cut in half more than once since 2007, and both went on to new highs after at least one of those falls. We used the same test on the Nasdaq after the last 21 times it fell 5% in a day.
What Should You Ask Next?
- Sitting on a Netflix loss in a taxable account? Why Sell Your AI Losers Before December 31?
- What fell less than the Nasdaq on November 5? Why Did Dividend Stocks Fall A Quarter As Much As The Nasdaq?
- How much tech do you already own through your index funds? See How Much AI Do You Really Own?
Follow this story with us: we’ll come back to both stocks after November 17 and show how each one moved.
Is Your Portfolio Sized For Its Worst Case?
Corrections test concentration, not conviction. If you have $1 million or more invested, see how exposed your portfolio is to the AI trade in a free 15-minute call with a Trefis partner firm.
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.