Tearsheet

Strategy (MSTR)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $163.54 | Market Cap: $46.5 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software

Strategy (MSTR)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $163.54
Market Cap: $46.5 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Application Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.5%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -41 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8.7%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Crypto & Blockchain, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Blockchain Enterprise Solutions, and Digital Asset Custody.
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 193x
2   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.7%
3   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7907%
4   Key risks
MSTR key risks include [1] an extreme dependency on Bitcoin's price volatility, Show more.
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.5%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Crypto & Blockchain, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Blockchain Enterprise Solutions, and Digital Asset Custody.
2 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -41 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8.7%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 193x
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.7%
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7907%
7 Key risks
MSTR key risks include [1] an extreme dependency on Bitcoin's price volatility, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MSTR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, MicroStrategy (MSTR) experienced a significant stock price decline, with its shares moving by approximately -52%. The stock was trading around $400 in mid-August 2025 and fell to approximately $167.5 by mid-December 2025. This substantial decrease can be attributed to several key factors:

**1. Significant Decline in Bitcoin Price:** MicroStrategy's stock performance is highly correlated with the price of Bitcoin, as the company has largely transformed into a Bitcoin holding entity. A substantial drop in Bitcoin's value from approximately $126,300 in October 2025 to $90,000 by December 2025, representing a 40% decline, exerted significant downward pressure on MSTR. The stock is designed to amplify Bitcoin's movements, leading to deeper drops during periods of market stress.

**2. Share Dilution from Continuous Bitcoin Acquisitions:** MicroStrategy consistently financed large Bitcoin purchases through the issuance of common and preferred stock. In December 2025, for instance, the company raised approximately $989 million by selling shares to acquire 10,645 bitcoins for about $980 million. This strategy led to significant share dilution, causing the "Bitcoin held per share" metric to turn negative for the first time in years, effectively reducing existing shareholders' proportional ownership of the company's Bitcoin holdings.

**3. Threat of MSCI Index Exclusion:** Reports surfaced that index provider MSCI was considering excluding companies whose digital asset holdings exceeded 50% of their total assets from its Global Investable Market Indexes, viewing them as investment funds rather than traditional operating businesses. JPMorgan estimated this potential exclusion could trigger passive outflows of $2.8 billion from MSTR stock from MSCI indexes alone, possibly reaching $8.8 billion if other indexes followed, which contributed to significant selling pressure.

**4. Compression of Valuation Premium (mNAV):** The market-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) premium, which indicates how much investors are willing to pay for MSTR relative to the underlying value of its Bitcoin holdings, compressed sharply during 2024–2025. After exceeding 240% in late 2024, this premium had fallen to approximately 16% by December 2025, suggesting a notable reduction in investor enthusiasm or the perceived additional value beyond its direct Bitcoin exposure.

**5. Bearish Technical Outlook and Market Sentiment:** Technical indicators for MSTR stock in the latter half of 2025 displayed a bearish outlook. These included the formation of a bearish flag pattern and a death cross, with the stock consistently trading below important support levels. Furthermore, the overall market sentiment was characterized as "Bearish" and the Fear & Greed Index indicated "Fear," exacerbating the selling pressure on the stock.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MSTR Return172%40%-74%346%359%-42%1074%
Peers Return27%37%-22%54%35%22%243%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MSTR Win Rate67%50%33%75%58%33% 
Peers Win Rate62%67%33%62%65%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MSTR Max Drawdown-35%0%-75%0%-29%-44% 
Peers Max Drawdown-22%-5%-33%-4%-6%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MSFT, CRM, ORCL, GOOGL, IBM. See MSTR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMSTRS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-89.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven831.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven431 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-39.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven65.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven181 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-43.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven75.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven697 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-75.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven315.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven860 days1,480 days

Compare to RMBS, CVLT, OPEN, PRGS, SABR


In The Past

Strategy's stock fell -89.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/9/2021. A -89.3% loss requires a 831.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Strategy (MSTR)

Better Bets than Strategy (MSTR)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MSTR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
10.4%10.4%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.7%10.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.2%12.2%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.2%4.2%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
10.4%10.4%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.7%10.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.2%12.2%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.2%4.2%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Strategy

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MSTRMSFTCRMORCLGOOGLIBMMedian
NameStrategy MicrosoftSalesfor.Oracle Alphabet Internat. 
Mkt Price160.38476.12257.72178.46296.72303.32277.22
Mkt Cap45.63,539.0244.3805.53,586.2283.3544.4
Rev LTM475293,81240,31761,017385,47765,40263,210
Op Inc LTM-41135,9378,88019,490124,07711,54415,517
FCF LTM-37,55678,01712,895-13,18173,55211,85412,374
FCF 3Y Avg-14,52371,30211,1942,15568,99811,75311,473
CFO LTM-63147,03913,50222,296151,42413,48317,899
CFO 3Y Avg-35121,38411,88219,874120,99013,49816,686

Growth & Margins

MSTRMSFTCRMORCLGOOGLIBMMedian
NameStrategy MicrosoftSalesfor.Oracle Alphabet Internat. 
Rev Chg LTM1.6%15.6%8.4%11.1%13.4%4.5%9.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-1.7%13.2%10.0%9.8%11.0%2.6%9.9%
Rev Chg Q10.9%18.4%8.6%14.2%15.9%9.1%12.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.7%4.3%2.1%3.4%3.8%2.1%3.1%
Op Mgn LTM-8.7%46.3%22.0%31.9%32.2%17.7%27.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-6.4%44.6%19.2%30.8%29.9%16.4%24.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM4.7%0.6%0.8%0.3%-0.5%0.6%0.6%
CFO/Rev LTM-13.3%50.0%33.5%36.5%39.3%20.6%35.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-7.3%47.2%31.8%35.5%35.3%21.4%33.6%
FCF/Rev LTM-7,907.5%26.6%32.0%-21.6%19.1%18.1%18.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-3,060.9%28.0%30.0%5.1%20.5%18.6%19.6%

Valuation

MSTRMSFTCRMORCLGOOGLIBMMedian
NameStrategy MicrosoftSalesfor.Oracle Alphabet Internat. 
Mkt Cap45.63,539.0244.3805.53,586.2283.3544.4
P/S192.913.16.113.27.64.010.4
P/EBIT8.329.627.5-19.323.223.2
P/E11.636.733.852.223.633.333.6
P/CFO-1,455.926.218.136.119.419.519.5
Total Yield8.6%3.4%3.4%2.6%4.6%5.4%4.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.6%0.5%0.7%0.3%2.4%0.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-24.3%2.3%4.9%-3.3%6.4%3.3%
D/E0.10.00.0-0.00.30.0
Net D/E0.1-0.0-0.0--0.00.2-0.0

Returns

MSTRMSFTCRMORCLGOOGLIBMMedian
NameStrategy MicrosoftSalesfor.Oracle Alphabet Internat. 
1M Rtn-17.9%-6.2%8.7%-18.8%4.2%2.1%-2.1%
3M Rtn-51.4%-6.5%6.4%-40.7%19.0%17.7%-0.0%
6M Rtn-56.5%-0.5%-0.5%-15.0%71.5%8.4%-0.5%
12M Rtn-58.5%5.5%-26.1%6.2%52.4%35.9%5.9%
3Y Rtn823.1%99.2%103.0%132.7%231.2%141.5%137.1%
1M Excs Rtn-18.7%-6.9%8.0%-19.6%3.4%1.3%-2.8%
3M Excs Rtn-55.4%-7.5%4.2%-41.1%16.5%13.7%-1.7%
6M Excs Rtn-68.9%-12.9%-12.9%-27.4%59.1%-4.0%-12.9%
12M Excs Rtn-71.8%-3.8%-37.9%-7.1%45.9%23.7%-5.5%
3Y Excs Rtn649.2%24.6%27.2%59.4%152.0%58.4%58.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Software Business496    
Other services 85857677
Product licenses 861028787
Product support 267281284292
Subscription services 61433329
Total496499511481486


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Corporate & Other420    
Software Business9    
Total429    


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Corporate & Other4,292    
Software Business470    
Total4,763    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity30,547,168
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202511.1%
Average Daily Volume22,291,675
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.37
Basic Shares Quantity284,376,000
Short % of Basic Shares10.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/30/20255.9%-6.8%-28.8%
7/31/2025-8.8%0.0%-16.8%
5/1/20253.3%8.6%-2.4%
2/5/2025-3.3%-2.9%-14.7%
10/30/2024-1.1%4.2%56.7%
8/1/2024-4.2%-10.0%-12.4%
4/29/2024-17.6%-1.9%25.2%
2/6/20242.0%37.8%161.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive575
# Negative757
Median Positive5.9%8.6%35.3%
Median Negative-4.2%-6.8%-14.7%
Max Positive6.7%37.8%161.0%
Max Negative-17.6%-14.8%-28.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251103202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025505202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024218202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023215202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023801202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023501202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022216202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221101202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022802202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022503202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021216202210-K 12/31/2021