Over the last week, Trefis members have created forecasts for Dish’s Pay TV Market Share, a key driver of Dish Network’s (NASDAQ:DISH) stock. The member forecasts suggest that Dish’s Pay TV Market Share will trend slightly above the estimates of the in-house team of analysts at Trefis.
Dish competes with Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA), DirecTV (NASDAQ:DTV) and Time Warner Cable (NYSE:TWC) in the pay-TV market space. We currently have a Trefis price estimate of around $26 for Dish Network’s stock, about 45% above the current market price of around $18.
Around 69% of Dish Network’s stock value can be attributed to its satellite TV business, and hence the stock is quite sensitive to Dish Network Pay TV Market Share.
- Sling TV launches Multi-Stream Service: Is DISH Increasing Focus On Its Streaming Segment?
- Dish Q1 Earnings: ARPU Growth Compensates For Pay-TV Subscriber Decline
- How Are Dish Network’s Revenue & EBITDA Composition Expected To Change By 2020?
- By What Percentage Can Dish Network’s Revenues Grow Over the Next Five Years?
- Why Have Dish Network’s Revenues Increased ~20% While EBITDA Has Decreased ~20% In The Last Five Years?
- How Has Dish Network’s Revenue Composition Changed In The Last Five Years?
The average of Trefis member forecasts for Dish Network Pay TV Market Share indicate a decrease from 14.1% in 2010 to 13.8% by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of a decrease from 13.5% in 2010 to 13.2% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 5% to the Trefis price estimate for Dish Network’s stock. In the past, Dish Network Pay TV Market Share has increased from 12.7% in 2006 to 13.3% in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Dish Network’s stock to Dish Network Pay TV Market Share.