Over the last week, Trefis members have created forecasts for Dish’s Pay TV Market Share, a key driver of Dish Network’s (NASDAQ:DISH) stock. The member forecasts suggest that Dish’s Pay TV Market Share will trend slightly above the estimates of the in-house team of analysts at Trefis.
Dish competes with Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA), DirecTV (NASDAQ:DTV) and Time Warner Cable (NYSE:TWC) in the pay-TV market space. We currently have a Trefis price estimate of around $26 for Dish Network’s stock, about 45% above the current market price of around $18.
Around 69% of Dish Network’s stock value can be attributed to its satellite TV business, and hence the stock is quite sensitive to Dish Network Pay TV Market Share.
The average of Trefis member forecasts for Dish Network Pay TV Market Share indicate a decrease from 14.1% in 2010 to 13.8% by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of a decrease from 13.5% in 2010 to 13.2% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 5% to the Trefis price estimate for Dish Network’s stock. In the past, Dish Network Pay TV Market Share has increased from 12.7% in 2006 to 13.3% in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Dish Network’s stock to Dish Network Pay TV Market Share.