Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Crypto: Market Update 2/3/2026
Here is a quick snapshot of how different asset classes moved yesterday, last week, and the last month.
- Equity dropped 0.8% yesterday, versus -0.9% weekly and a 0.9% rise monthly
- Bonds rose 0.01% yesterday, after declining 0.5% weekly and 0.2% monthly
- Gold gained 6.4% in the last session, with weekly and monthly changes at -4.6% and 14%
- Commodities jumped 2.6% yesterday, yet are down 1.9% for the week and up 7.9% monthly
- Real Estate fell 0.2% yesterday, adding to a -0.8% weekly drop and 1.3% monthly increase
- Gold fell 0.2% yesterday, posting losses over both weekly and monthly periods
| ETF | 1D | 1W | 1M | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | SPY | -0.8% | -0.9% | 0.9% |
| Bonds | AGG | 0.0% | -0.5% | -0.2% |
| Gold | GLD | 6.4% | -4.6% | 14.1% |
| Commodities | DBC | 2.6% | -1.9% | 7.9% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -0.2% | -0.8% | 1.3% |
| Bitcoin | BTCUSD | -0.2% | -11.9% | -12.7% |
Why does it matter?
- See where capital is flowing: Asset class performance reveals investor sentiment, from risk-on rallies to flight-to-safety moves.
- Track shifts in correlation: Rising correlations reduce diversification benefits and increase portfolio risk during stress.
- Spot early signs of rotation: Leadership changing across stocks, bonds, or commodities often precedes macro regime shifts.
Trefis works with Empirical Asset Management – a Boston area wealth manager – whose asset allocation strategies yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%. Empirical has incorporated the Trefis HQ Portfolio in this asset allocation framework to provide clients better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
Capital Flow Patterns Have Governed Historical Risk-Return Profile
| ETF | Return | Volatility | Sharpe | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | SPY | 15.6% | 14.9% | 87.3% |
| Bonds | AGG | 1.9% | 5.1% | -13.0% |
| Gold | GLD | 15.5% | 14.5% | 87.3% |
| Commodities | DBC | 8.4% | 16.0% | 43.0% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | 5.6% | 17.5% | 23.8% |
| Bitcoin | BTCUSD | 69.9% | 75.6% | 100.4% |
Figures are on annualized basis, based on monthly return data for last 10 years
How Stable Is Correlation Between Different Asset Classes?
| Equity | Bonds | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | – | 12% | 20% | 9.2% | 5.3% | 11% | 1.1% | 34% | 23% | 33% | 73% | 69% | 65% | 26% | 38% | 40% |
| Bonds | 12% | 20% | 9.2% | – | 33% | 31% | 9.1% | -0.1% | -2.6% | -9.9% | 28% | 38% | 34% | 11% | 7.6% | -4.7% |
| Gold | 5.3% | 11% | 1.1% | 33% | 31% | 9.1% | – | 28% | 37% | 45% | 12% | 18% | 6.7% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 5.9% |
| Commodities | 34% | 23% | 33% | -0.1% | -2.6% | -9.9% | 28% | 37% | 45% | – | 23% | 16% | 25% | 10.0% | 11% | 18% |
| Real Estate | 73% | 69% | 65% | 28% | 38% | 34% | 12% | 18% | 6.7% | 23% | 16% | 25% | – | 18% | 25% | 20% |
| Bitcoin | 26% | 38% | 40% | 11% | 7.6% | -4.7% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 10.0% | 11% | 18% | 18% | 25% | 20% | – |
The figures above are correlations for last 10Y, 5Y and 1Y, in same order
Which Assets Have Seen Most Money Rotation During Market Crashes?
| ETF | Inflation Shock | Covid Pandemic | 2018 Correction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | SPY | -23.0% | -30.4% | -19.3% |
| Bonds | AGG | -14.1% | -2.1% | 1.4% |
| Gold | GLD | -7.7% | -6.3% | 5.0% |
| Commodities | DBC | 20.5% | -23.7% | -16.5% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -29.8% | -41.6% | -11.1% |
| Bitcoin | BTCUSD | -56.0% | -33.5% | -37.4% |
The table shows return of different asset classes during market crises – specifically during the period where S&P fell and bottomed
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – S&P 500, Russell, and S&P midcap. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.