TransUnion Stock Tumbled 23% – Opportunity or Trap?
TransUnion (TRU) stock has fallen by 23.0% in less than a month, from $87.71 on 9th Jan, 2026 to $67.58 now. Should you buy this dip?
Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips. As it turns out, TRU stock passes basic quality checks. But the bad news is that historically, the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips was -1.4%, with median peak return of 96%. We define sharp dip as stock going down 30% or more, in less than 30 day period.
Below, we get into details of historical dips and subsequent returns.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
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| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 1.0% |
| 3M | -1.2% |
| 6M | 24.9% |
| 12M | -1.4% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
TRU had 6 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 96% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 112 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -20% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | TRU Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | TRU | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | -1% | 96% | -20% | 112 | ||||
| 10242023 | -38% | -5% | 116% | 120% | -13% | 365 | ||
| 3182020 | -38% | -27% | 49% | 72% | -7% | 281 | ||
| 1302013 | -35% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0 | |||
| 11082012 | -35% | -4% | -48% | -48% | 5 | |||
| 11302011 | -30% | 2% | -71% | 25% | -71% | 41 | ||
| 5102011 | -36% | 4% | -3% | 192% | -28% | 184 | ||
TransUnion Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 8.3% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 7.3% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 20.8% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 3.5 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 3.2 |
Not sure if you can take a call on TRU stock? Consider portfolio approach
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Single stocks swing wildly but staying invested matters. A well built portfolio keeps you invested, captures upside and softens the blows from individual stocks
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