Would You Still Hold Shopify Stock If It Fell Another 30%?
Shopify (SHOP) stock is down 9.8% in a day. The recent slide reflects renewed concerns around slowing e-commerce growth and valuation, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Shopify stands today.
- Size: Shopify is a $155 Bil company with $11 Bil in revenue currently trading at $119.29.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 30.2% and operating margin of 15.7%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.01 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.42
- Valuation: Shopify stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 87.1 and P/EBIT multiple of 92.3
- Has returned (median) 51.4% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See SHOP Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Strong operational performance, alongside Very High valuation – making the stock Relatively Expensive. For details, see Buy or Sell SHOP Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is SHOP stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose SHOP stock falls another 20-30% to $84 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock saw an impact slightly worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
2022 Inflation Shock
- SHOP stock fell 84.8% from a high of $169.06 on 19 November 2021 to $25.67 on 11 October 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 24 October 2025
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $179.01 on 29 October 2025 , and currently trades at $119.29
| SHOP | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -84.8% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 1,109 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- SHOP stock fell 40.7% from a high of $54.32 on 19 February 2020 to $32.23 on 16 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 17 April 2020
| SHOP | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -40.7% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 32 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- SHOP stock fell 31.5% from a high of $17.38 on 25 July 2018 to $11.91 on 24 December 2018 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 8 February 2019
| SHOP | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -31.5% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 46 days | 120 days |
Feeling jittery about SHOP stock? Consider portfolio approach.
Why Stock Pickers Win More With Multi Asset Portfolios
Individual picks are volatile but diversified assets offset each other. A multi asset portfolio helps you stay the course capture upside and reduce downside.
The asset allocation framework of Trefis’ Boston-based, wealth management partner yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%. Our partner’ strategy now includes Trefis High Quality Portfolio, which has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices