How Rivian Stock Doubles To $30
RIVN stock (NASDAQ: RIVN) surged by over 23% recently after the company reported stronger-than-expected Q3 results, signaling a potential turning point in its fundamentals. Revenue surged 78% year-over-year to $1.56 billion, while gross profit turned positive at $24 million – ending two consecutive quarters of losses. Despite this rebound, the stock remains far below its 2021 IPO price of about $130, currently trading near $15. The improvement comes after a challenging stretch for the company.
Headwinds have been significant, including tariffs on components sourced from Canada and Mexico, cuts to EV subsidies under the Trump Administration, and heightened competition across the electric vehicle space. That said, we believe there is scope for a potential 2x upside from these levels if Rivian can execute on its growth strategy, expand margins, and successfully launch its upcoming mass-market SUV. Below we present an upside case factoring in recent developments for the company and how they could drive growth, margins, and a meaningful re-rating of the stock. For more details see: RIVN Valuation Ratios.
Is holding RIVN stock risky? Of course it is. High Quality Portfolio mitigates that risk.
Rivian Is Coming Of Age
Rivian’s products are well-reviewed, and the company has effectively cracked the template for the EV pickup – an area where Tesla’s Cybertruck has so far generated more hype than actual traction. The long-term bull case rests on Rivian’s ability to scale beyond its niche premium models and expand reach through partnerships. Today, Rivian sells the R1T pickup and R1S SUV, both priced above $70,000. The real growth driver, however, will be the R2, a midsize SUV expected in 2026 at around $45,000, designed to take Rivian into the mass market.
This model is key for Rivian’s volume growth in the U.S. and Europe and will take on the popular Tesla Model Y head on. To support this push, Rivian is expanding its Illinois facility to 215,000 units and building a Georgia plant with 400,000-unit capacity by 2028. Together, these efforts should allow Rivian to broaden its customer base, lower costs, and drive the sort of volume growth needed to transition from being a relatively niche player into a mainstream EV contender.
Rivian is deepening its partnership with Volkswagen through a joint venture that will bring Rivian’s EV architecture and software to VW models starting in 2027. Volkswagen has already invested $1 billion, with plans to scale that to $5.8 billion, combining Rivian’s drivetrain and software capabilities with VW’s global manufacturing reach. The collaboration aims to commercialize Rivian’s software-defined vehicle platform and could serve as a model for future licensing deals with other automakers, opening up a new, recurring revenue stream beyond vehicle sales.
How The 2x Move Happens
Rivian’s revenues surged from $55 million in 2021 to about $4.97 billion in 2024. Between 2022 and 2024, sales were up almost 3x, translating into a compounded annual growth rate of 73% per year. Consensus projects slower growth of about 8% this year to $5.4 billion due to tariffs on auto component imports and subsidy cuts, although the Street expects sales to surge about 32% in 2026 to about $7.1 billion. Now, if sales actually grow by about 35% from 2026 onward, led by Rivian’s more mass-market launches such as the R2, revenues could grow to about $13 billion by 2028.
Although Rivian continues to post steep operating and net losses, the company is looking to cut costs and improve margins. The company posted a surprise gross margin beat in Q3 2025 and there could be further improvement coming. For instance, the company is banking on its VW partnership and targeting to bring down the R2’s bill of materials to around $32,000 per vehicle, which could result in a considerable improvement to gross margins. At the same time, the company has also been carrying out job cuts in commercial and sales roles, which could help slash fixed costs. Now, if adjusted net margins rise to about 10% by 2028, led by higher scale and better fixed cost absorption, it would translate into net income of about $1.3 billion for FY’28. For perspective, Tesla’s net margins stood at low double-digit levels through its consolidation phase of 2021 to 2024, indicating that this could be realistic for Rivian as well.
Tesla stock currently trades at about 26ox estimated 2025 earnings and about 12x revenues. Sure, the market views Tesla not just as another EV play but as a proxy for physical AI, with its focus on self-driving software and emerging focus on initiatives like humanoid robots. But Rivian, too, could be more richly valued if it executes well on its EV ramp-up and potentially starts licensing its EV architecture and tech. If we assume that Rivian stock would then be valued at about 30x earnings, a very small fraction of Tesla’s multiple, that would translate into a market cap of about $40 billion, or almost 2.2x current levels. Read RIVN Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.
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