Can Lockheed Martin Stock Recover If Markets Fall?

Lockheed Martin (LMT) stock is down 8.8% in 21 trading days. The recent slide reflects renewed concerns around program losses and F-35 delivery delays, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?

Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Lockheed Martin stands today.

• Size: Lockheed Martin is a $102 Bil company with $73 Bil in revenue currently trading at $439.19.
• Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 2.9% and operating margin of 8.2%.
• Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.19 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.06
• Valuation: Lockheed Martin stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 27.6 and P/EBIT multiple of 19.3
• Has one instance since 2010 where it dipped >30% in < 30 days and subsequently returned 23.8% within a year. See LMT Dip Buy Analysis.

These metrics point to a Moderate operational performance, alongside High valuation – making the stock Unattractive. For details, see Buy or Sell LMT Stock

That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is LMT stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose LMT stock falls another 20-30% to $307 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock saw an impact slightly worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.

2022 Inflation Shock

• LMT stock fell 20.8% from a high of $501.41 on 18 April 2023 to $397.35 on 5 October 2023 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 24 July 2024
• Since then, the stock increased to a high of $614.61 on 21 October 2024 , and currently trades at $439.19

 
2020 Covid Pandemic

• LMT stock fell 37.1% from a high of $439.85 on 11 February 2020 to $276.80 on 23 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 1 March 2022

 
2018 Correction

• LMT stock fell 32.1% from a high of $361.00 on 15 February 2018 to $245.22 on 24 December 2018 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 20 June 2019

 
2008 Global Financial Crisis

• LMT stock fell 51.4% from a high of $119.59 on 28 August 2008 to $58.18 on 11 March 2009 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 26 July 2013

 
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