How Will Lockheed Martin Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, October 21, 2025. We expect the company to post quarterly revenues of around $18.6 billion, supported by steady defense spending and strong backlog execution across its Aeronautics and Missiles & Fire Control segments. However, we expect earnings to reflect modest margin pressure from supply chain costs and program timing. While efficiency improvements and higher production rates in F-35 deliveries are likely helping offset inflationary headwinds, profitability growth remains gradual. Robust demand from U.S. and allied defense programs continues to underpin revenue stability, but sustained earnings expansion will depend on execution discipline and contract mix over the next few quarters.

The company has $118 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $72 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $5.9 Bil in operating profits and net income of $4.2 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.

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There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 105% since its inception.

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Lockheed Martin’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 40% of the time.
• Notably, this percentage increases to 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 8 positive returns = 2.1%, and median of the 12 negative returns = -3.5%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like Lockheed Martin, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P and clocked >105% returns since inception.

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