What’s Next For Juniper Networks Stock After Mixed Q3 ’21 Performance?

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Juniper Networks

Juniper Networks Inc. stock (NYSE: JNPR) is up 4.5% in just five trading days, completely outperforming the S&P 500 which was up just around 1%. However, if you look at the change over the last ten and twenty-one days, the stock has returned 2.6% and 4.7%, respectively, underperforming the market on both occasions. Juniper reported mixed Q3 ’21 earnings this week, with revenue rising to $1.19 billion from $1.14 billion for the same period last year. However, rising operating expenses (especially SG&A expenses), saw operating income drop from $125 million to $120 million over this period, and despite a roughly flat pre-tax income, a $23 million tax expense, saw EPS drop to $0.27 in Q3 ’21, down from $0.44 in Q3 ’20, where the company received a $34 million tax benefit.

Now after the mixed earnings, is Juniper stock set to rise further or could we expect some correction? We believe that there is an average 51% chance of a rise in Juniper stock over the next week (five trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on Juniper Networks Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about JNPR historical returns and comparison to peers, see Juniper Networks (JNPR) Stock Return.

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Twenty-One Day: JNPR 4.7%, vs. S&P500 5.5%; Underperformed market

(26% likelihood event; 50% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • JNPR stock increased 4.7% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 5.5%
  • A change of 4.7% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 26% likelihood event, which has occurred 656 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 656 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 329 occasions
  • This points to a 50% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: JNPR 2.6%, vs. S&P500 3.6%; Underperformed market

(29% likelihood event; 51% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • JNPR stock increased 2.6% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 3.6%
  • A change of 2.6% or more over ten trading days is a 29% likelihood event, which has occurred 734 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 734 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 371 occasions
  • This points to a 51% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: JNPR 4.5%, vs. S&P500 1%; Outperformed market

(14% likelihood event; 51% probability of rise over next five days)

  • JNPR stock increased 4.5% over a five-day trading period ending 10/28/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) marginal rise of 1%
  • A change of 4.5% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 14% likelihood event, which has occurred 358 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 358 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 183 occasions
  • This points to a 51% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

 

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