Can Juniper Networks Stock Continue Performing Better Than The S&P?

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JNPR: Juniper Networks logo
JNPR
Juniper Networks

Juniper Networks Inc. stock (NYSE: JNPR) is down around 4% in the past month (twenty-one trading days), performing better than the S&P 500 which was down 6.1% over this period. If you look at the change over the last five and ten days, too, the stock has returned -1.6% and -10%, performing slightly better than the broader markets. Juniper’s recent Q1 ’22 earnings, saw revenue rising from $1.07 billion in Q1 ’21 to $1.17 billion in Q1 ’22. However, COGS and other operating expenses rose at a much slower rate, and operating income more than doubled from $27.8 million to $58.5 million over this period. Combined with an increase in the tax benefit and an absence of debt extinguishment charges compared to Q1 ’21, net income rose to $55.7 million in Q1 ’22, driving EPS up to $0.17.

Now, is JNPR stock set to continue its rally or could we expect a pullback? We believe that there is a decent 61% chance of a rise in JNPR stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on JNPR Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see Juniper Networks (JNPR) Stock Return. Additionally, for details about JNPR revenue and comparison to peers, see Juniper Networks (JNPR) Revenue Comparison.

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Twenty-One Day: JNPR -4.1%, vs. S&P500 -6.1%; Outperformed market

(26% likelihood event; 61% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • JNPR stock lost 4.1% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) fall of 6.1%
  • A change of -4.1% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 26% likelihood event, which has occurred 644 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 644 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 393 occasions
  • This points to a 61% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: JNPR -10%, vs. S&P500 -11%; Outperformed market

(2% likelihood event; 69% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • JNPR stock dropped 10% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 11%
  • A change of -10% or more over ten trading days is a 2% likelihood event, which has occurred 62 times out of 2517 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 62 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 43 occasions
  • This points to a 69% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: JNPR -1.6%, vs. S&P500 -2.4%; Outperformed market

(27% likelihood event; 57% probability of rise over next five days)

  • JNPR stock dropped 1.6% over a five-day trading period ending 6/17/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was down 2.4% over this period.
  • A change of -1.6% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 27% likelihood event, which has occurred 670 times out of 2517 in the last ten years
  • Of these 670 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 381 occasions
  • This points to a 57% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Returns Jun 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 JNPR Return -10% -23% -2%
 S&P 500 Return 0% -22% 84%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio -10% -27% 190%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 6/20/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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