Cisco, Juniper: Big Earnings From Cloud Players Bode Well For Internet Infrastructure Stocks
Our theme of Internet Infrastructure Stocks – which includes a diverse set of companies that sell hardware and software that underpin the Internet – has outperformed the S&P 500 over the last three years straight, returning about 44% in 2019, 25% in 2020, and 44% in 2021. So will the theme continue to outperform in 2022 as well? Although the theme is down by 11% year-to-date in 2022, compared to the S&P 500 which is down just about 6%, we think it could do well through the rest of the year. Why?
Demand for cloud computing services is soaring, as we’ve seen from the recent quarterly earnings reports from major public cloud players such as Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG), and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT). This is likely to drive further capacity expansion, which should, in turn, drive higher demand for networking infrastructure products. There is also a possibility that supply chain issues, which proved to be a constraint for much of the industry through 2021, could ease through 2022, helping revenue growth for the stocks in our theme. Moreover, many of the stocks in the theme trade at below-market multiples, and it’s possible that they could find favor if investors rotate into value stocks to play rising interest rates and tighter monetary policy.
Within our theme, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock has been the weakest performer, declining by about 16% year-to-date. The stock has seen a sharp decline, given its higher valuation multiple and the company’s recent move to abandon its acquisition of chip designer Arm. On the other side, Juniper Networks (NYSE:JNPR) stock has fared better than the other stocks in our theme, declining by just about 1% year-to-date.
- What’s Happening With Juniper Stock?
- Here’s How Juniper Networks Stock Strongly Outperformed The Broader Markets!
- What’s Behind Juniper Networks’ Stock’s Strong Underperformance Of The S&P Since 2017?
- Can Juniper Networks Stock Continue Performing Better Than The S&P?
- Can Juniper Networks Stock Turn Around After A 10% Drop Last Month?
- Forecast Of The Day: Juniper Switching Revenues
Below you’ll find our previous coverage of the Internet infrastructure theme where you can track our view over time.
[11/16/2021]With Infra Bill Passed, Which Internet Infrastructure Stocks Should You Pick?
Our theme of Internet Infrastructure Stocks – which includes a diverse set of companies that sell hardware and software that underpin the Internet – has returned about 14% year-to-date, underperforming the S&P 500 which has gained about 25% over the same period. That said, there are a couple of factors that could help the stocks in the near-to-medium term. The $1.2 trillion U.S. infrastructure bill, which was recently signed into law, has earmarked about $65 billion to bring broadband into unserved and underserved areas of the U.S. Around $42.5 billion in grants will be focused on expanding physical access to broadband, including building out fiber optic and other networking infrastructure. This could drive demand for the hardware and software offered by the companies in our theme. Moreover, a broader shift to hybrid and distributed workplaces following Covid-19 and the greater digitization of the economy could also drive demand for faster and more reliable connectivity, helping the stocks in our theme.
Within our theme, Juniper Networks (NYSE:JNPR), a company that sells networking products including routers, switches, and network management software, has been the strongest performer, with its stock up by about 42% year-to-date. On the other side, Lumentum Holdings (NASDAQ:LITE), a company best known for its optical networking products, has been the worst performer, with its stock declining by about 3% year-to-date.
[6/23/2021] Three Reasons Why Internet Infrastructure Stocks Are A Buy
Our indicative Theme of Internet Infrastructure Stocks – which includes a diverse set of companies that sell hardware and software that underpin the Internet – has returned about 14% year-to-date, marginally outperforming the Nasdaq-100 which is up by about 12% over the same period. The theme is also up by a relatively solid 47% since the end of 2019. We think that this theme could outperform going forward for several reasons. Firstly, Covid-19 and the remote working trend are likely to accelerate the pace of digitization of businesses and the economy, translating into higher demand for the products and services provided by the companies in our theme. Moreover, the Biden Administration’s plan to spend $65 billion to bring broadband into unserved and underserved areas of the U.S. is also likely to help. Separately, most of the stocks in the theme are value bets, which could benefit as investors rotate out of highly valued growth names as interest rates rise in the coming years.
Within our theme, Nvidia stock (NASDAQ:NVDA) has been the strongest performer, rising by about 45% year-to-date, driven by robust demand for its GPUs from data centers and gaming consoles and its recent stock split announcement. On the other side, Lumentum Holdings (NASDAQ:LITE), a company best known for its optical networking products, has been the worst performer, with its stock declining by about 15% year-to-date due to weaker than expected Q3 FY’21 earnings.
[3/18/2021] How Are Internet Infrastructure Stocks Faring?
Our indicative Theme of Internet Infrastructure Stocks – which includes a diverse set of companies that sell hardware and software that underpins the Internet and data centers – has gained about 11% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500 which is up by 5.5%. The theme is also up by a solid 43% since the end of 2019, compared to a return of about 23% for the S&P 500. These stocks should stand to gain in the medium to long-term, driven by the increasing digitization of the economy through and post the Covid-19 pandemic.
Within our theme, Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) has been the strongest performer, rising by about 29% year-to-date, driven by robust semiconductor demand, some changes at the top management levels, and stronger than expected quarterly earnings. Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) has also done well, rising by 22% year-to-date, as demand for DRAM is likely to pick up driven by stronger demand from cloud data centers and personal computers. Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) stock is also up 10% year-to-date, as corporate IT spending is expected to rebound as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes. However, NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) has been a relative underperformer remaining largely flat year-to-date, due to its relatively rich valuation and its big rally last year.
Other related sectors that stand to benefit from the digital shift include companies that provide cybersecurity software and wireless equipment and services. Check out our themes on Cyber Security Stocks and 5G Stocks for more details.
[12/8/2020] Internet Infrastructure Stocks
Our indicative Theme of Internet Infrastructure Stocks – which includes a diverse set of companies that sell hardware and software that underpins the Internet and data centers – has gained about 32% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 which is up by about 15% year-to-date. (as of 12/7/2020). We see these stocks as a key play on the increasing digitization of the economy through and post Covid-19. Below is a bit more about how these stocks have fared over the last month.
While Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) remains the biggest winner in our theme, up 131% year-to-date, its performance has been mixed over the last month or so as news related to the Covid-19 vaccines saw investors shift focus to lower growth and value stocks. Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) stock, on the other hand, has rallied by 30% over the last month as demand for its DRAM chips is expected to rise significantly next year particularly from cloud data centers, smartphones, and gaming consoles. Although Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) has been the worst performer in the theme year-to-date due to delays in its next-gen process technology and mounting competition from AMD and Apple’s well-reviewed proprietary chip, it has done reasonably well over the past month, rising by about 10%. Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) stock has also lagged this year, down by about -7% year-to-date. However, the stock rallied by about 16% over the last month, driven partly by stronger than expected Q1 FY’21 results, with the company continuing to transition to a more software-centric model.
[Updated 10/28/2020] Nvidia, Intel, Lumentum: Is It Time To Buy Internet Infrastructure Stocks?
Our indicative Theme of Internet Infrastructure Stocks which includes a diverse set of companies that sell semiconductor products, networking equipment, and related products that underpin the Internet – has gained about 19% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 which is up by about 5% year-to-date. (as of 10/28/2020). These stocks should benefit from the growing requirement for connectivity and computing power, as the Covid-19 pandemic accelerates the shift online. While Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) remains the strongest performer, up 130% year-to-date, Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) and Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) have underperformed significantly, and are down by almost 20%.
Nvidia (NVDA) is a semiconductor company best known for its graphic processing units (GPUs) that are increasingly used in servers for machine learning and artificial intelligence. In September, the company said that it would acquire U.K based chip designer ARM which specializes in power-efficient central processing units (CPU). The stock is up 131% year-to-date.
Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) manufactures optical networking products such as tunable transponders, transceivers, and transmitter modules, lasers, receivers, and modulators. The company also provides components such as 3D sensors that are used on mobile phones, including the iPhone. The stock is up 6% year-to-date.
Micron Technology (MU) is a memory manufacturer that sells DRAM and NAND memory. Although the stock is down -1.7% year-to-date, due to some weakness in memory prices, it’s possible that pricing for DRAM could pick up in the coming quarters, driven by the launch of new video game consoles and higher demand from the server space.
Cisco (CSCO) is a networking major that sells networking software, and products such as switches and routers. While the stock has underperformed, declining by about -19% year-to-date, it could pick up as data centers start upgrading to the next generation 400G network technology, which improves data capacity significantly.
Intel (INTC) one of the largest producers of CPUs for servers and PCs, has seen its stock drop by about -19% this year, due to delays with its next-generation 7-nm chips and strong competition from rivals such as AMD – which has been broadening its portfolio of CPUs and GPUs targeted at data centers, and Nvidia, which could play a larger role in the CPU space via its ARM deal. (related: It May Take Some Time For The Market To Recognize That Intel Is Undervalued)
What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.
|S&P 500 Return||0%||-5%||102%|
|Trefis MS Portfolio Return||0%||-9%||258%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 2/8/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016