How Will Deere Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Deere (NYSE:DE) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, November 19, 2025. The company has $129 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $43 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $8.7 Bil in operating profits and net income of $5.2 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Deere’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 45% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 42% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 5.3%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -3.1%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/14/2025 | -6.8% | -4.1% | -8.4% |
| 5/15/2025 | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.4% |
| 2/13/2025 | -2.2% | 4.0% | 0.2% |
| 11/21/2024 | 8.0% | 15.1% | 6.8% |
| 8/15/2024 | 6.3% | 7.3% | 12.4% |
| 5/16/2024 | -4.7% | -6.8% | -8.7% |
| 2/15/2024 | -5.2% | -7.3% | -0.4% |
| 11/22/2023 | -3.1% | -4.9% | 2.8% |
| 8/18/2023 | -5.3% | -7.8% | -2.0% |
| 5/19/2023 | -1.9% | -4.2% | 10.1% |
| 2/17/2023 | 7.5% | 3.6% | -2.1% |
| 11/23/2022 | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.6% |
| 8/19/2022 | 0.5% | 5.5% | -1.4% |
| 5/20/2022 | -14.1% | -4.7% | -9.7% |
| 2/18/2022 | -3.0% | -8.8% | 11.0% |
| 11/24/2021 | 5.3% | -2.2% | -0.0% |
| 8/20/2021 | -2.1% | 5.8% | -5.4% |
| 5/21/2021 | 1.3% | 2.0% | -4.9% |
| 2/19/2021 | 9.9% | 15.9% | 24.1% |
| 11/25/2020 | -1.9% | -1.0% | 2.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -4.8% | -3.5% |
| Max Positive | 9.9% | 15.9% | 24.1% |
| Max Negative | -14.1% | -8.8% | -9.7% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -23.2% | -6.4% | -37.7% |
| 3Y History | 29.5% | -23.1% | -48.2% |
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