Would You Still Hold Deere Stock If It Fell Another 30%?

Deere (DE) stock is down 5.7% in a day. The recent slide reflects renewed concerns around a weak 2026 outlook and persistent large ag sector challenges, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?

Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Deere stands today.

• Size: Deere is a $127 Bil company with $43 Bil in revenue currently trading at $469.87.
• Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of -20.9% and operating margin of 20.0%.
• Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.53 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.09
• Valuation: Deere stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 24.4 and P/EBIT multiple of 13.2
• Has one instance since 2010 where it dipped >30% in < 30 days and subsequently returned 239% within a year. See DE Dip Buy Analysis.

These metrics point to a Weak operational performance, alongside Moderate valuation – making the stock Unattractive. For details, see Buy or Sell DE Stock

That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is DE stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose DE stock falls another 20-30% to $329 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock saw an impact slightly better than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.

2022 Inflation Shock

• DE stock fell 34.1% from a high of $438.45 on 18 April 2022 to $289.14 on 6 July 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 25 November 2022
• Since then, the stock increased to a high of $531.48 on 18 May 2025 , and currently trades at $469.87

 
2020 Covid Pandemic

• DE stock fell 37.4% from a high of $177.60 on 9 January 2020 to $111.15 on 23 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 29 July 2020

 
2018 Correction

• DE stock fell 23.9% from a high of $171.49 on 26 January 2018 to $130.56 on 29 October 2018 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 15 October 2019

 
2008 Global Financial Crisis

• DE stock fell 73.8% from a high of $94.69 on 14 January 2008 to $24.83 on 2 March 2009 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 11 February 2011

 
Feeling jittery about DE stock? Consider portfolio approach.

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