DE Dropped 6.8% In A Day. Have You Fully Evaluated The Risk?
Deere (DE) stock is down 6.8% in a day. While history suggests price dips recover, there is risk – specific to growth. Consider the following data:
- Size: A $139 Bil company with $44 Bil in revenue currently trading at $478.84.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of -22.7% and operating margin of 21.1%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.5 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.1
- Valuation: Currently trading at P/E multiple of 24.6 and P/EBIT multiple of 13.3
- Has one instance since 2010 where it dipped >30% in < 30 days and subsequently returned 239% within a year. See DE Dip Buy Analysis.
While we like to buy dips if the fundamentals check out – for DE, see Buy or Sell DE Stock – we are wary of falling knives. Specifically, it is worth trying to answer if things get really bad, and DE drops another 20-30% to $335.19 levels, will we be able to hold on to the stock? What is the worst case scenario? We call it downturn resilience.
Below is a deep dive into Deere (DE) downturn resilience – specifically, its performance vs the market during past crises? Turns out, the stock saw an impact slightly better than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.
Below are the details, but before that, as a quick background: DE provides manufacturing and distribution of equipment across agriculture, turf, construction, forestry, and financial services through four specialized business segments worldwide.
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- How To Trade Deere Stock Ahead of Its Upcoming Earnings?
- Better Bet Than Deere Stock: Pay Less To Get More From BLBD
- Better Bet Than Deere Stock: Pay Less To Get More From Industry Peer
2022 Inflation Shock
- DE stock fell 34.1% from a high of $438.45 on 18 April 2022 to $289.14 on 6 July 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 25 November 2022
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $531.48 on 18 May 2025 , and currently trades at $478.84
| DE | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -34.1% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 142 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- DE stock fell 37.4% from a high of $177.60 on 9 January 2020 to $111.15 on 23 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 29 July 2020
| DE | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -37.4% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 128 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- DE stock fell 23.9% from a high of $171.49 on 26 January 2018 to $130.56 on 29 October 2018 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 15 October 2019
| DE | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -23.9% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 351 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- DE stock fell 73.8% from a high of $94.69 on 14 January 2008 to $24.83 on 2 March 2009 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 11 February 2011
| DE | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -73.8% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 711 days | 1480 days |
Worried that DE could fall much more? You could take a look at the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.