How Will Delta Air Lines Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, January 13, 2026. The company has $47 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $63 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $6.1 Bil in operating profits and net income of $4.6 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Delta Air Lines’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 40% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 33% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 8 positive returns = 5.4%, and median of the 12 negative returns = -2.6%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/9/2025 | 4.6% | 8.3% | 1.5% |
| 7/10/2025 | 12.0% | 9.6% | 6.2% |
| 4/9/2025 | 23.4% | 13.8% | 35.3% |
| 1/10/2025 | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.8% |
| 10/10/2024 | -1.1% | 10.8% | 18.9% |
| 7/11/2024 | -4.0% | -2.3% | -15.2% |
| 4/10/2024 | -2.3% | -1.6% | 10.5% |
| 1/12/2024 | -9.0% | -11.8% | -4.0% |
| 10/12/2023 | -2.3% | -7.9% | -6.9% |
| 7/13/2023 | -0.5% | 1.5% | -6.2% |
| 4/13/2023 | -1.1% | 6.5% | -1.5% |
| 1/13/2023 | -3.5% | -1.4% | -2.5% |
| 10/13/2022 | 4.0% | 11.3% | 21.5% |
| 7/13/2022 | -4.5% | 4.9% | 9.1% |
| 4/13/2022 | 6.2% | 12.7% | -5.0% |
| 1/13/2022 | 2.1% | -4.4% | 4.2% |
| 10/13/2021 | -5.8% | -7.1% | 0.4% |
| 7/14/2021 | -1.6% | -1.6% | -0.1% |
| 4/15/2021 | -2.8% | -5.1% | -8.7% |
| 1/14/2021 | 2.5% | 0.5% | 7.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 12 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 5.4% | 8.3% | 7.8% |
| Median Negative | -2.6% | -4.4% | -5.0% |
| Max Positive | 23.4% | 13.8% | 35.3% |
| Max Negative | -9.0% | -11.8% | -15.2% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -23.1% | -3.2% | 8.3% |
| 3Y History | -40.5% | 4.4% | 22.7% |
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