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Investment Overview for JetBlue Airways (NASDAQ:JBLU)

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1. Heavy Jump In Fuel Costs Hurt Profits

The company's financial performance in the most recent quarter was hurt on a disadvantageous holiday calendar.  However, that was only part of the reason for the dismal display. Fuel prices jumped by almost 40% year over year this time, weighing on earnings in the quarter, as well. However, management is well aware of the situation and is already implementing strategies to mitigate the impact of higher fuel costs in order to improve margins. In this respect, the company is expected to make a series of adjustments to both capacity and ancillary revenue in the coming months.

2. Rising Wages And Operational Problems Lead To Increased Costs

Apart from the fuel costs, JetBlue also witnessed a rise in its non-fuel costs during the fourth quarter of 2016. This was largely due to higher salaries and maintenance expenses incurred during the quarter. The airline faced a similar trend in the quarters thereafter. As anticipated, its unit costs (excluding fuel) to increased in the range of 3% to 5% throughout 2018. This is expected to create a dent in the carrier's earnings in the upcoming quarter.

3. Mint Markets Continues to Help the Company

On a positive note, the Mint markets continue to remain RASM and margin builders. The company witnessed a marked improvement in its most established Mint markets in the second quarter, as well. RASM improvement of over 12% in the Fort Lauderdale market during the quarter is testament to this fact.

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Below are key drivers of JetBlue Airways that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate.

JetBlue Passenger Flights

JetBlue's Passenger Yield: JetBlue's Passenger Yield increased from $0.113 in 2009 to $0.133 in 2017 on higher passenger fares driven by fuel price hikes. We expect this to increase to $0.148 by the end of the Trefis forecast period on fare hikes supported by stable demand for air travel.

If, however, passenger fares rise more than anticipated either due to a sharp rise in crude prices or due to strong growth in demand for flights, and take the yield to $0.162 by the end of the Trefis forecast period, then there could be a potential upside of approximately 10% to the ${trefisprice}.

Fuel Costs % Of Passenger Revenues: JetBlue's fuel cost as percentage of its passenger revenues was 17.9% in 2016.

We expect JetBlue's fuel cost as percentage of its passenger revenue to increase in the near term due to rising crude oil prices the world over. We anticipate this percentage to rise moderately in the outer years of the Trefis forecast period to reach 33.7% by the end of the forecast period. If however fuel prices rise more than anticipated such that JetBlue's fuel costs as a percentage of its passenger revenues reaches 38% by the end of the Trefis forecast period, then there could be a potential downside of around 25% to the ${trefisprice}.

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JetBlue Airways is the fifth-largest passenger carrier in the United States based on passenger traffic (revenue passenger miles) as reported by airlines. JetBlue operates a point-to-point service model with its fleet of Airbus A321s, Airbus A320s, and EMBRAER 190 aircraft. JetBlue's fleet is one of the youngest and the most fuel-efficient fleet of any major U.S. airline. JetBlue serves destinations in the United States, the Caribbean, and Latin America.

JetBlue has significant operations at the Newark International Airport and at New York's John F. Kennedy International Airport, both of which are some of the busiest domestic airports in the U.S.

JetBlue Airways has been recognized as a "value airline" based on its service, style, and cost structure. Known for its award winning customer service as much as for its competitive fares, JetBlue believes it offers its customers the best coach products in markets it serves with a strong core product and reasonably priced optional upgrades.

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Significant presence in high value geographies

JetBlue, in recent years, has built a strong presence in high value geographies which include New York, Boston, and Los Angeles. As a result, the carrier is well positioned to serve high paying corporate customers that will support growth in its passenger yield and profit.

At the same time, San Juan in the Caribbean is another market that JetBlue has focused on over the last few years. This market has allowed JetBlue to expand its operations to fast-growing destinations in Latin America. However, the hurricanes may slow down the growth capabilities here in the near future.

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Oil prices significantly impact bottom line

Fuel expenses constitute the single largest cost head for airlines, making them vulnerable to hikes in crude oil prices. For JetBlue, fuel costs constitute around a third of its total operating expense. To reduce vulnerability to fuel price volatility, JetBlue engages in fuel price hedging.

Demand for flights is related to global economic growth

Demand for flights is highly correlated to the global economic growth. Thus, a decline in economic growth or recession reduces demand for flights, impacting passenger traffic for airlines. On the contrary, steady growth in the global or U.S. economy, grows demand for air travel, allowing airlines to raise their air fares, occupancy rates, and profits.

Focus on ancillary revenue

Many airlines, including JetBlue, are figuring out ways to grow their top lines through ancillary means such as baggage fees, access to on-board WiFi/food/drinks etc. Accordingly, airlines are investing to enhance their product offerings that include in-flight WiFi and other entertainment options, improved lounge facilities, and extra legroom seats.

According to an Amadeus/IdeaWorks study, North American airlines collectively produce one of the largest stream of ancillary revenues compared to other regions. A majority of the increase is attributable to stronger merchandising efforts by the carriers as well as addition of more à la carte services for sale.

Growing preference for low-cost carrier model

During the past decade, low cost carriers such as Southwest and JetBlue have gained significant market share in the U.S. Looking ahead, we figure these low cost carriers to continue to grow their market share, as their lower fares attract passenger traffic.

Consolidation in the industry has helped raise profits of all airlines

The U.S. airline industry has seen many mergers and acquisitions in the last decade including the five big combinations of US Airways and America West, Delta and Northwest, United and Continental, Southwest and AirTran, and American and US Airways.

A more consolidated industry has worked to improve profits of all airlines. Fewer players in the market has made it easier for those remaining airlines to add capacity with restraint. Prior to this consolidation in the airline industry, individual airlines were adding capacity at higher rates in an attempt to grow their market shares. This rapid capacity addition resulted in an oversupply of seats, reducing margin and profits of all carriers.

Going forward, we figure as long as airlines add capacity with discipline, the industry will remain profitable overall.

How Does Trefis Modelling Work?

How do we get the historical numbers for this chart?

Trefis has a team of in-house Analysts who gather historical data from company filings and other verifiable sources. When historicals are available, we explain how we got them at the bottom of the Trefis analysis section below.

Who came up with the Trefis forecast for future years?

The Trefis team of in-house Analysts considers a variety of factors when projecting any forecast. The rationale for our projections is explained in the Trefis analysis section below.

How does my dragging the trendline on the chart impact the stock price?

1. We use forecasts for business drivers to calculate forecasted Revenues and Profits for each division of the company.
2. We then use forecasted Profits in a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model to obtain the Price Estimate for the company.

See more on: DCF Methodology

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