Cisco Systems Stock Jump Looks Great, But How Secure Is That Gain?
Cisco Systems (CSCO) stock is up 9.5% in 21 trading days. The rally reflects surging demand for AI infrastructure and strong networking results, but big moves like this often invite a tougher question: is the stock truly resilient when markets reverse?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Cisco Systems stands today.
- Size: Cisco Systems is a $306 Bil company with $57 Bil in revenue currently trading at $77.37.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 5.3% and operating margin of 22.1%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.09 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.13
- Valuation: Cisco Systems stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 30.1 and P/EBIT multiple of 24.1
These metrics point to a Moderate operational performance, alongside High valuation – making the stock Unattractive. For details, see Buy or Sell CSCO Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors chasing this rally: how resilient is CSCO stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose CSCO stock falls 20-30% to $54 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
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2022 Inflation Shock
- CSCO stock fell 38.6% from a high of $63.96 on 29 December 2021 to $39.27 on 12 October 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 14 February 2025
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $78.00 on 16 November 2025 , and currently trades at $77.37
| CSCO | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -38.6% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 856 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- CSCO stock fell 33.5% from a high of $49.93 on 12 February 2020 to $33.20 on 12 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 22 March 2021
| CSCO | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -33.5% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 375 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- CSCO stock fell 25.0% from a high of $58.05 on 15 July 2019 to $43.52 on 5 December 2019 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 20 August 2021
| CSCO | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -25.0% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 624 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- CSCO stock fell 60.0% from a high of $34.08 on 6 November 2007 to $13.62 on 9 March 2009 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 21 February 2017
| CSCO | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -60.0% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 2906 days | 1480 days |
Feeling jittery about CSCO stock? Consider portfolio approach.
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