How Will Cisco Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

Note: Cisco’s FY 2025 ended July 2025

Cisco Systems Inc (NASDAQ: CSCO), a company providing networking equipment, security, collaboration, and cloud management services, is scheduled to release its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday, August 13, 2025, with analysts projecting earnings of 98 cents per share on $14.62 billion in revenue. This would represent a 13% year-over-year increase in adjusted earnings and a 7% increase in sales compared to the prior year’s figures of 87 cents per share and $13.6 billion in revenue. Historically, CSCO stock has shown a tendency to outperform following earnings announcements, increasing 63% of the time with a median one-day rise of 4.3% and a maximum observed increase of 7%. Also see, Buy or Sell Cisco Stock?

The company’s Q3 performance beat expectations, fueled by strong AI-related demand, lifting both core earnings and full-year targets. Management has reiterated its EPS guidance for Q4, signaling confidence in ongoing momentum. The company has $281 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $56 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $12 Bil in operating profits and net income of $9.8 Bil.

For event-driven traders, historical patterns may offer an edge, whether by positioning ahead of earnings or reacting to post-release moves. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than from individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception. See earnings reaction history of all stocks.

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Cisco’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 12 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 63% of the time.
• Notably, this percentage increases to 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 12 positive returns = 4.3%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -2.7%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

CSCO 1D, 5D, 21D Forward Returns

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

CSCO Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Cisco Systems stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Cisco Systems. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

CSCO Correlation With Peers

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