Why is Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Up 50% In A Month?

Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF), a vertically integrated steel mill operator, has seen its stock surge by 57% in the last month as compared to the 4% gain in the S&P 500 Index. Cleveland-Cliffs’ upward stock price movement is much sharper compared to that for its peers, including VALE (NYSE: VALE) which is up 13% in a month, ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT) which is up 12%, and Nucor Corp (NYSE: NUE) which is up 13% year to date.

In Q2 2025, CLF posted an adjusted earnings loss of –$0.50/share, much better than the –$0.71 expected. It also achieved a record 4.3 million net tons of steel shipments, plus improved cost efficiency. The management expects further cost cuts ahead, bolstering EBITDA recovery. The recent hike in U.S. steel tariffs to 50% further boosted sentiment, as CLF stands to gain from stronger domestic pricing. We value CLF stock at about $10.87 per share, which is roughly 4% below of the current market price. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.

Factors that drove changes in Cleveland-Cliffs stock 

CLF stock dropped more than 54% from July 2024 to May this year. Between slumping steel demand, weak pricing in key segments, mounting losses, rising debt, and delays in turning things around, CLF’s fundamentals deteriorated sharply—leading to the steep one-year decline in stock price. Thereafter, it started the recovery.

Cleveland-Cliffs PS multiple has also seen a drop from 1.0x in 2020 to 0.2x in 2024. While the company’s PS is now 0.2x there is a potential upside when the current PS is compared to levels seen in the past years. 

What to expect from Cleveland-Cliffs stock

In Q2, CLF posted record steel shipments—about 4.3 million net tons—and generated revenues of $4.9 billion. The company swung back to a positive adjusted EBITDA of $97 million (a $271 million jump versus Q1). It also achieved a $15/ton reduction in steel unit costs quarter on quarter, and significantly released working capital by drawing down inventories. Despite a GAAP net loss of $470 million (which included $323 million in non-recurring charges tied to idling facilities), CLF ended the quarter with $2.7  billion in liquidity and reaffirmed a $50/ton target for 2025 cost reductions—signaling an ongoing improvement in operational efficiency and a path toward free cash flow recovery. See our analysis on Cleveland-Cliffs Valuation: Is CLF Stock Expensive Or Cheap? for more information on what’s driving our valuation for Cliffs. See our analysis of Cleveland-Cliffs Revenue for more details on the company’s key revenue streams and how they are expected to trend.

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