Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $12.76 | Market Cap: $6.3 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Steel
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $12.76Market Cap: $6.3 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Steel
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Green Hydrogen Production, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -76%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -89% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -1.5 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8.3% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 132% | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.2% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.9%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.3% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Green Hydrogen Production, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -76%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -89% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -1.5 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8.3% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 132% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.2% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.9%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.3% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -32% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CLF Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) stock experienced significant upward movement, including a surge of over 24% in a single day, around October 2025, coinciding with its Third-Quarter 2025 earnings report and related announcements. This movement, which included a pre-market surge of 15.13% following the Q3 earnings, can be attributed to several key factors.
1. Positive Reaction to Q3 2025 Earnings Despite Revenue Miss
Cleveland-Cliffs reported its Third-Quarter 2025 results around October 7, 2025, with further discussions and analyses in mid-October. While the company missed revenue estimates, it successfully narrowed its quarterly loss, contributing to a positive market reaction that saw the stock surge.
2. Strong Performance in Automotive Steel Sales and New Contracts
The company highlighted a richer sales mix, primarily driven by robust performance in automotive-grade steel. Cleveland-Cliffs benefited from supportive trade policies and secured new long-term deals with automakers, with expectations that a continued focus on automotive-grade steels would boost revenue per ton sold in 2026.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CLF Return | 77% | 50% | -26% | 27% | -54% | 36% | 55% |
| Peers Return | -5% | 46% | 27% | 38% | 32% | 32% | 321% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CLF Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 33% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 48% | 40% | 59% | 57% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CLF Max Drawdown | -63% | -8% | -45% | -14% | -55% | -38% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -43% | -4% | -11% | -2% | -14% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NUE, KNF, STLD, CRS, RS. See CLF Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -64.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 178.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -63.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 173.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 214 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -52.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 111.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 473 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -89.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 892.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to NUE, KNF, STLD, CRS, RS
In The Past
Cleveland-Cliffs's stock fell -64.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/28/2022. A -64.1% loss requires a 178.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| With Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | Return | ||
| Where Does Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Rank Among Competitors? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Day 5 of Gains Streak for Cleveland-Cliffs Stock with 25% Return (vs. 20% YTD) [7/22/2025] | Notification | ||
| CLF Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Cleveland-Cliffs vs. S&P500 Correlation | Correlation | ||
| Cleveland-Cliffs Price Volatility | Volatility | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Why Has Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Dropped 25%? | November 14th, 2025 | ||
| How Will Cleveland-Cliffs Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings? | October 17th, 2025 | ||
| Buy Or Fear Cleveland-Cliffs Stock? | September 2nd, 2025 | ||
| Why is Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Up 50% In A Month? | July 25th, 2025 | ||
| CLF Stock Up 25% after 5-Day Win Streak | July 23rd, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CLF. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 29.7% | 29.7% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.9% | 9.9% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | -2.5% |
| 04302023 | CLF | Cleveland-Cliffs | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.3% | 17.4% | -9.8% |
| 08312022 | CLF | Cleveland-Cliffs | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.0% | -11.5% | -31.3% |
| 05312019 | CLF | Cleveland-Cliffs | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.3% | -37.3% | -63.7% |
| 09302017 | CLF | Cleveland-Cliffs | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.8% | 77.1% | -18.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 29.7% | 29.7% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.9% | 9.9% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | -2.5% |
| 04302023 | CLF | Cleveland-Cliffs | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.3% | 17.4% | -9.8% |
| 08312022 | CLF | Cleveland-Cliffs | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.0% | -11.5% | -31.3% |
| 05312019 | CLF | Cleveland-Cliffs | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.3% | -37.3% | -63.7% |
| 09302017 | CLF | Cleveland-Cliffs | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.8% | 77.1% | -18.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Cleveland-Cliffs
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 165.32 |
| Mkt Cap | 15.4 |
| Rev LTM | 15,778 |
| Op Inc LTM | 772 |
| FCF LTM | 94 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 590 |
| CFO LTM | 734 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,146 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -7.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 0.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 15.4 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 13.8 |
| P/E | 21.6 |
| P/CFO | 13.9 |
| Total Yield | 4.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.1% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 11.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 16.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 27.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 6.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 44.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 10.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 12.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -10.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -29.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10222025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7232025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7242024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2082024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10252023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7262023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2142023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7262022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4262022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
