Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Green Hydrogen Production, Show more.
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -76%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -89%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -1.5 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8.3%
1  Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 132%
2   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.2%
3   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.9%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.3%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -32%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Green Hydrogen Production, Show more.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -76%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -89%
2 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -1.5 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8.3%
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 132%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.2%
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.9%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.3%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -32%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CLF Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) stock experienced significant upward movement, including a surge of over 24% in a single day, around October 2025, coinciding with its Third-Quarter 2025 earnings report and related announcements. This movement, which included a pre-market surge of 15.13% following the Q3 earnings, can be attributed to several key factors. 1. Positive Reaction to Q3 2025 Earnings Despite Revenue Miss

Cleveland-Cliffs reported its Third-Quarter 2025 results around October 7, 2025, with further discussions and analyses in mid-October. While the company missed revenue estimates, it successfully narrowed its quarterly loss, contributing to a positive market reaction that saw the stock surge. 2. Strong Performance in Automotive Steel Sales and New Contracts

The company highlighted a richer sales mix, primarily driven by robust performance in automotive-grade steel. Cleveland-Cliffs benefited from supportive trade policies and secured new long-term deals with automakers, with expectations that a continued focus on automotive-grade steels would boost revenue per ton sold in 2026.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CLF Return77%50%-26%27%-54%36%55%
Peers Return-5%46%27%38%32%32%321%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CLF Win Rate58%58%42%58%33%80% 
Peers Win Rate42%48%40%59%57%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CLF Max Drawdown-63%-8%-45%-14%-55%-38% 
Peers Max Drawdown-43%-4%-11%-2%-14%-14% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NUE, KNF, STLD, CRS, RS. See CLF Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCLFS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-64.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven178.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-63.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven173.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven214 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-52.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven111.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven473 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-89.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven892.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to NUE, KNF, STLD, CRS, RS


In The Past

Cleveland-Cliffs's stock fell -64.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/28/2022. A -64.1% loss requires a 178.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)

Better Bets than Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CLF. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.0%1.0%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
29.7%29.7%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.9%9.9%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.2%5.2%-2.5%
CLF_4302023_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE04302023CLFCleveland-CliffsDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
4.3%17.4%-9.8%
CLF_8312022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield08312022CLFCleveland-CliffsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
24.0%-11.5%-31.3%
CLF_5312019_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield05312019CLFCleveland-CliffsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.3%-37.3%-63.7%
CLF_9302017_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302017CLFCleveland-CliffsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.8%77.1%-18.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.0%1.0%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
29.7%29.7%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.9%9.9%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.2%5.2%-2.5%
CLF_4302023_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE04302023CLFCleveland-CliffsDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
4.3%17.4%-9.8%
CLF_8312022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield08312022CLFCleveland-CliffsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
24.0%-11.5%-31.3%
CLF_5312019_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield05312019CLFCleveland-CliffsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.3%-37.3%-63.7%
CLF_9302017_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302017CLFCleveland-CliffsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.8%77.1%-18.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Cleveland-Cliffs

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CLFNUEKNFSTLDCRSRSMedian
NameClevelan.Nucor Knife Ri.Steel Dy.Carpente.Reliance  
Mkt Price12.75162.5474.05168.11314.74288.09165.32
Mkt Cap6.337.54.224.715.815.115.4
Rev LTM18,62230,8063,04817,6352,89313,92215,778
Op Inc LTM-1,5392,1432651,519561982772
FCF LTM-1,547-385-8131126966294
FCF 3Y Avg1413,115881,0181621,073590
CFO LTM-9213,1302551,5244391,029734
CFO 3Y Avg8045,8423032,5622821,4881,146

Growth & Margins

CLFNUEKNFSTLDCRSRSMedian
NameClevelan.Nucor Knife Ri.Steel Dy.Carpente.Reliance  
Rev Chg LTM-6.8%-5.8%5.5%-1.5%2.4%-0.9%-1.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-7.2%-10.4%--8.0%14.6%-7.0%-7.2%
Rev Chg Q3.6%4.7%8.9%11.2%2.2%6.8%5.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.9%1.2%3.3%2.8%0.6%1.7%1.5%
Op Mgn LTM-8.3%7.0%8.7%8.6%19.4%7.1%7.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-1.9%13.9%10.1%13.7%13.6%9.6%11.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.3%-0.0%-0.1%0.5%1.1%-0.2%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM-4.9%10.2%8.4%8.6%15.2%7.4%8.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg3.6%17.0%10.6%13.8%9.9%10.3%10.4%
FCF/Rev LTM-8.3%-1.2%-2.6%1.8%9.3%4.8%0.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg0.3%8.7%3.2%5.4%5.7%7.4%5.5%

Valuation

CLFNUEKNFSTLDCRSRSMedian
NameClevelan.Nucor Knife Ri.Steel Dy.Carpente.Reliance  
Mkt Cap6.337.54.224.715.815.115.4
P/S0.31.01.41.24.31.11.1
P/EBIT-3.913.715.813.821.513.413.8
P/E-3.623.129.418.229.720.221.6
P/CFO-6.69.517.113.428.014.313.9
Total Yield-27.7%6.1%3.4%6.9%3.7%6.7%4.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.7%0.0%1.4%0.3%1.7%0.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.5%7.7%2.6%5.6%1.7%7.0%4.1%
D/E1.30.20.30.20.10.10.2
Net D/E1.30.10.30.10.00.10.1

Returns

CLFNUEKNFSTLDCRSRSMedian
NameClevelan.Nucor Knife Ri.Steel Dy.Carpente.Reliance  
1M Rtn19.4%12.6%11.8%10.9%2.7%4.9%11.4%
3M Rtn21.2%12.6%-5.8%28.9%31.1%-1.9%16.9%
6M Rtn79.6%38.0%-19.7%28.2%27.6%-5.4%27.9%
12M Rtn2.5%10.8%-28.5%20.8%62.5%-5.7%6.6%
3Y Rtn-19.2%12.5%-64.7%679.6%44.6%44.6%
1M Excs Rtn18.1%11.4%10.6%9.6%1.4%3.7%10.1%
3M Excs Rtn6.1%5.0%-13.7%19.5%21.5%-9.0%5.6%
6M Excs Rtn64.1%22.6%-35.2%12.8%12.2%-20.8%12.5%
12M Excs Rtn-14.0%-7.6%-41.1%4.5%48.8%-21.8%-10.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-89.0%-57.7%--2.0%633.8%-29.0%-29.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Steelmaking    1,990
Total    1,990


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Steelmaking16,88018,07018,32615,8492,557
Other Businesses657315306239 
Corporate507    
Intersegment eliminations-507370343683947
Total17,53718,75518,97516,7713,504


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity74,309,198
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202521.2%
Average Daily Volume21,796,778
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.41
Basic Shares Quantity495,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares15.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251022202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025723202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024225202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241105202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024724202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023208202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231025202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023726202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023426202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022214202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221026202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022726202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022426202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021211202210-K 12/31/2021