Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.0%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.5%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -9.3%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 3.2 Bil
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55%
Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.0%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 37%
  Key risks
NUE key risks include significant exposure to [1] volatile scrap steel prices and [2] rising electricity costs, Show more.
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.0%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 3.2 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 37%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.5%
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -9.3%
7 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.0%
8 Key risks
NUE key risks include significant exposure to [1] volatile scrap steel prices and [2] rising electricity costs, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NUE Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Outperformance

Nucor reported consolidated net earnings attributable to stockholders of $607 million, or $2.63 per diluted share, for the third quarter of 2025, announced on October 27, 2025. This significantly exceeded analysts' expectations of $2.22 per diluted share, representing an 18.47% positive surprise. Revenue also surpassed projections, totaling $8.52 billion against an expected $8.22 billion. This strong financial performance, despite some anticipated sequential decline in the fourth quarter, instilled investor confidence and led to an immediate positive market reaction with the stock rising 5.26% after the announcement.

2. Consistent Share Repurchase Program

Nucor actively engaged in returning capital to shareholders through its share repurchase program. During the third quarter of 2025, approximately 0.7 million shares were repurchased at an average price of $140.46 per share. Cumulatively, by the end of the third quarter, approximately 4.8 million shares had been repurchased year-to-date at an average price of $126.26 per share. This strategy continued into the fourth quarter, with approximately 0.7 million shares repurchased at an average price of $145.23 per share by December 17, 2025, demonstrating ongoing commitment to shareholder value.

3. Increased Cash Dividends

The company reinforced its commitment to shareholders by declaring a cash dividend of $0.55 per share on September 4, 2025, payable on November 10, 2025. Furthermore, Nucor announced an increase in its cash dividend on December 1, 2025, marking its 210th consecutive quarterly cash dividend. This consistent and increasing dividend payout signals financial stability and attractiveness to income-focused investors.

4. Credit Rating Upgrade by Moody's

In September 2025, Moody's upgraded Nucor's long-term credit ratings to A3 from Baa1 with a stable outlook. This upgrade positioned Nucor as the sole major North American steel producer to hold A-/A-/A3 ratings from all three major credit rating agencies (Standard & Poor's, Fitch Ratings, and Moody's), highlighting the company's strong financial health and prudent management.

5. Optimistic Outlook for 2026 and Strong Backlogs

Despite Nucor's guidance for lower earnings in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to seasonal effects and fewer shipping days, the company expressed significant optimism for 2026. Management noted that backlogs were "materially higher" than the previous year, indicating continuing momentum in key construction market segments such as energy, infrastructure, data centers, and manufacturing. This positive long-term outlook likely contributed to sustained investor confidence in Nucor's future performance.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NUE Return-2%118%17%34%-32%41%223%
Peers Return22%60%24%24%-14%36%247%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NUE Win Rate50%67%50%50%50%67% 
Peers Win Rate58%60%48%52%54%67% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NUE Max Drawdown-50%-8%-18%-1%-33%-11% 
Peers Max Drawdown-51%-6%-19%-9%-18%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: STLD, CLF, CMC, RS. See NUE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNUES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-41.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven69.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven129 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-49.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven98.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven246 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-33.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven50.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven568 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-68.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven221.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven4,543 days1,480 days

Compare to STLD, CLF, NWPX, NUE, CRS


In The Past

Nucor's stock fell -41.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/21/2022. A -41.1% loss requires a 69.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Nucor (NUE)

Better Bets than Nucor (NUE)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NUE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
42.2%42.2%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-2.5%
NUE_11302022_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11302022NUENucorQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-11.3%14.9%-12.3%
NUE_4302022_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%04302022NUENucorQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-12.6%-2.7%-32.9%
NUE_6302021_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%06302021NUENucorQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
20.2%10.6%-6.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
42.2%42.2%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-2.5%
NUE_11302022_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11302022NUENucorQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-11.3%14.9%-12.3%
NUE_4302022_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%04302022NUENucorQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-12.6%-2.7%-32.9%
NUE_6302021_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%06302021NUENucorQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
20.2%10.6%-6.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Nucor

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NUESTLDCLFCMCRSMedian
NameNucor Steel Dy.Clevelan.Commerci.Reliance  
Mkt Price160.69172.7412.9370.00297.71160.69
Mkt Cap31.125.46.47.815.615.6
Rev LTM31,88317,63518,6227,79813,92217,635
Op Inc LTM2,5181,519-1,539520982982
FCF LTM-331311-1,547312662311
FCF 3Y Avg2,5121,0181415421,0731,018
CFO LTM3,1681,524-9217151,0291,029
CFO 3Y Avg5,3532,5628049861,4881,488

Growth & Margins

NUESTLDCLFCMCRSMedian
NameNucor Steel Dy.Clevelan.Commerci.Reliance  
Rev Chg LTM1.7%-1.5%-6.8%-1.6%-0.9%-1.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-9.3%-8.0%-7.2%-4.3%-7.0%-7.2%
Rev Chg Q14.5%11.2%3.6%5.9%6.8%6.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.5%2.8%0.9%1.5%1.7%1.7%
Op Mgn LTM7.9%8.6%-8.3%6.7%7.1%7.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg12.9%13.7%-1.9%9.5%9.6%9.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.9%0.5%0.3%0.7%-0.2%0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM9.9%8.6%-4.9%9.2%7.4%8.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg16.0%13.8%3.6%11.9%10.3%11.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-1.0%1.8%-8.3%4.0%4.8%1.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg7.2%5.4%0.3%6.5%7.4%6.5%

Valuation

NUESTLDCLFCMCRSMedian
NameNucor Steel Dy.Clevelan.Commerci.Reliance  
Mkt Cap31.125.46.47.815.615.6
P/S1.01.20.30.81.11.0
P/EBIT-13.8-3.941.813.413.6
P/E18.818.2-3.675.520.218.8
P/CFO9.813.4-6.68.914.39.8
Total Yield7.0%6.9%-27.7%2.6%6.7%6.7%
Dividend Yield1.6%1.4%0.0%1.3%1.7%1.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-5.6%0.5%8.9%7.0%6.3%
D/E-0.21.30.20.10.2
Net D/E-0.11.30.00.10.1

Returns

NUESTLDCLFCMCRSMedian
NameNucor Steel Dy.Clevelan.Commerci.Reliance  
1M Rtn8.1%11.4%17.9%19.0%11.8%11.8%
3M Rtn13.0%26.7%14.5%20.1%3.6%14.5%
6M Rtn28.4%33.8%76.4%43.7%-2.8%33.8%
12M Rtn35.2%48.0%30.7%31.1%8.1%31.1%
3Y Rtn25.7%78.8%-14.5%51.3%55.1%51.3%
1M Excs Rtn7.4%10.7%17.1%18.3%11.1%11.1%
3M Excs Rtn18.8%22.6%11.8%16.3%2.6%16.3%
6M Excs Rtn16.0%21.4%64.0%31.3%-15.2%21.4%
12M Excs Rtn19.5%32.3%15.6%13.0%-7.4%15.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-55.0%-3.8%-85.9%-18.4%-16.0%-18.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Steel mills15,40714,15713,2359,7089,283
Steel products10,91512,0877,8454,4614,611
Corporate/eliminations5,4722,8528722,6321,134
Raw materials3,5473,3833,8713,3243,316
Total35,34032,47925,82320,12518,345


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,849,752
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-6.8%
Average Daily Volume1,286,041
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.99
Basic Shares Quantity229,900,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/27/20255.4%2.7%8.4%
7/28/2025-2.7%-5.2%2.4%
4/28/20251.9%3.4%-6.6%
1/27/20253.8%7.6%10.3%
10/21/2024-6.5%-5.4%-7.3%
7/22/2024-1.1%-2.4%-12.2%
4/22/2024-8.9%-8.6%-10.2%
1/29/20246.9%3.2%8.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121616
# Negative1288
Median Positive3.7%3.4%9.7%
Median Negative-2.9%-5.0%-10.6%
Max Positive9.1%16.0%36.1%
Max Negative-8.9%-8.6%-31.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251112202510-Q 10/4/2025
6302025813202510-Q 7/5/2025
3312025514202510-Q 4/5/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/28/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/29/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/30/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 7/1/2023
3312023510202310-Q 4/1/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 10/1/2022
6302022810202210-Q 7/2/2022
3312022511202210-Q 4/2/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Hollatz John JExecutive Vice President11142025Sell149.865,000749,30014,768,761Form
1Behr Allen CExecutive Vice President11032025Sell151.289,0421,367,90211,143,689Form