Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 4.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.6%, FCF Yield is 13%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
 
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -103%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -2.7%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -40%
 
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, CFO LTM is 9.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.9 Bil
Moderate capital ratio
Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 7.0%
 
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%
  
4 Uninsured deposits are low
Uninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 19%
  
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 4.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.6%, FCF Yield is 13%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -103%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, CFO LTM is 9.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.9 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%
4 Uninsured deposits are low
Uninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 19%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more.
6 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
7 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -2.7%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -40%
8 Moderate capital ratio
Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 7.0%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

USB Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the approximate 6.3% stock movement for U.S. Bancorp (USB) from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:

1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings: U.S. Bancorp reported an 18% jump in net income for the third quarter of 2025, reaching $1.89 billion, or $1.22 per share, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $1.11 per share. The company's revenue for the quarter was $7.34 billion, exceeding the $7.17 billion consensus estimate and marking a 6.8% increase year-over-year. This robust performance was driven by a solid 9.5% growth in fee income and a 2.1% rise in net interest income.

2. Quarterly Dividend Increase: The company announced an increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.52 per common share, up from the previous $0.50. This translates to an annualized dividend of $2.08, offering a yield of approximately 4.2%. The dividend was distributed on October 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of September 30, 2025.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
USB Return-18%24%-19%5%16%11%11%
Peers Return-8%37%-16%18%41%38%144%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
USB Win Rate50%67%42%42%50%40% 
Peers Win Rate50%62%43%55%63%68% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
USB Max Drawdown-51%-8%-29%-33%-10%-23% 
Peers Max Drawdown-50%-2%-28%-14%-5%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JPM, BAC, WFC, MS, C. See USB Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventUSBS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-54.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven120.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-51.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven104.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven402 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-24.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven32.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven315 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-76.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven330.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1690 days1480 days

Compare to JPM, BAC, WFC, MS, C


In The Past

U.S. Bancorp's stock fell -54.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/14/2022. A -54.7% loss requires a 120.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About U.S. Bancorp (USB)

Better Bets than U.S. Bancorp (USB)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to USB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
15.2%15.2%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.5%-2.5%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
15.2%15.2%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.5%-2.5%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for U.S. Bancorp

Peers to compare with:

Financials

USBJPMBACWFCMSCMedian
NameU.S. Ban.JPMorgan.Bank of .Wells Fa.Morgan S.Citigroup 
Mkt Price51.37316.1053.8890.21174.89107.7999.00
Mkt Cap80.0873.2402.3287.1274.8196.2280.9
Rev LTM28,182179,430107,26482,53264,24785,24483,888
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM9,900-119,74861,472-14,218-6,747-75,968-10,482
FCF 3Y Avg10,581-65,10734,2449,172-23,827-64,799-7,328
CFO LTM9,900-119,74861,472-14,218-3,679-69,391-8,948
CFO 3Y Avg10,581-65,10734,2449,172-20,550-58,153-5,689

Growth & Margins

USBJPMBACWFCMSCMedian
NameU.S. Ban.JPMorgan.Bank of .Wells Fa.Morgan S.Citigroup 
Rev Chg LTM4.0%8.6%8.9%0.2%17.6%8.4%8.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg6.5%13.4%5.2%2.9%7.6%5.0%5.9%
Rev Chg Q6.8%8.8%10.8%5.3%19.1%9.6%9.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.7%2.1%2.6%1.3%4.5%2.3%2.2%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM35.1%-66.7%57.3%-17.2%-5.7%-81.4%-11.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg38.2%-36.4%32.7%11.2%-38.8%-72.0%-12.6%
FCF/Rev LTM35.1%-66.7%57.3%-17.2%-10.5%-89.1%-13.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg38.2%-36.4%32.7%11.2%-44.6%-80.3%-12.6%

Valuation

USBJPMBACWFCMSCMedian
NameU.S. Ban.JPMorgan.Bank of .Wells Fa.Morgan S.Citigroup 
Mkt Cap80.0873.2402.3287.1274.8196.2280.9
P/S2.74.93.63.23.92.23.4
P/EBIT-------
P/E10.515.013.012.715.412.612.8
P/CFO7.6-7.36.3-18.8-67.9-2.7-5.0
Total Yield13.7%6.7%7.7%9.9%6.5%8.0%7.8%
Dividend Yield4.2%0.0%0.0%2.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg17.3%-7.5%11.7%6.9%-15.6%-55.7%-0.3%
D/E1.00.60.90.81.42.01.0
Net D/E-1.0-0.3-0.7-0.61.0-1.2-0.7

Returns

USBJPMBACWFCMSCMedian
NameU.S. Ban.JPMorgan.Bank of .Wells Fa.Morgan S.Citigroup 
1M Rtn10.6%2.2%0.6%4.1%6.6%6.7%5.4%
3M Rtn5.6%4.5%6.4%10.8%16.9%11.7%8.6%
6M Rtn20.2%21.8%22.8%21.8%35.6%42.4%22.3%
12M Rtn3.2%32.6%18.9%26.2%38.3%54.9%29.4%
3Y Rtn35.1%159.1%68.2%123.5%115.5%163.4%119.5%
1M Excs Rtn9.4%1.0%-0.6%2.8%5.4%5.4%4.1%
3M Excs Rtn0.6%2.1%2.5%9.1%13.0%7.9%5.2%
6M Excs Rtn4.7%6.4%7.3%6.3%20.2%26.9%6.9%
12M Excs Rtn-11.7%17.7%3.8%9.0%23.8%41.8%13.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-40.2%76.0%-15.6%31.8%39.2%79.4%35.5%

FDIC Bank Data

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Wealth, Corporate, Commercial and Institutional Banking12,0038,7743,8924,5283,962
Consumer and Business Banking10,3588,3008,5818,9368,736
Payment Services6,6646,2986,0075,6866,185
Treasury and Corporate Support-8819301,1239071,128
Commercial and Institutional Banking  3,2243,2682,975
Total28,14424,30222,82723,32522,986


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Wealth, Corporate, Commercial and Institutional Banking4,6643,3631,5641,6591,683
Consumer and Business Banking2,5571,8342,3572,3682,359
Payment Services1,0131,3441,7041,3001,454
Treasury and Corporate Support-2,805-7161,496-1,309527
Commercial and Institutional Banking  842941891
Total5,4295,8257,9634,9596,914


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity18,441,714
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120255.7%
Average Daily Volume6,578,925
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.80
Basic Shares Quantity1,557,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024221202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241105202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023220202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023807202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023508202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221101202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022503202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/31/2021