Harley-Davidson (HOG)
Market Price (12/23/2025): $20.9 | Market Cap: $2.5 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Motorcycle Manufacturers
Harley-Davidson (HOG)
Market Price (12/23/2025): $20.9Market Cap: $2.5 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Motorcycle Manufacturers
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 23%, Dividend Yield is 3.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 19%, FCF Yield is 16% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -81%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -127% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 136% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -16%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.7% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% | Key risksHOG key risks include [1] its struggle to attract younger riders as its core customer base ages, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Luxury Consumer Goods. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 23%, Dividend Yield is 3.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 19%, FCF Yield is 16% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Luxury Consumer Goods. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -81%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -127% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 136% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -16%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.7% |
| Key risksHOG key risks include [1] its struggle to attract younger riders as its core customer base ages, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
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The Harley-Davidson (HOG) stock experienced a significant decline, with several key factors contributing to its movement. Here are five key points highlighting why the stock moved by approximately -27.2% for the period from August 31, 2025, to December 23, 2025: 1. Disappointing Q4 2024 Results and Weak 2025 Outlook. In early February 2025, Harley-Davidson reported a significant net loss of $116.9 million for the fourth quarter of 2024, a considerable drop compared to a profit in the same period a year prior. This loss was larger than analysts' expectations, and the company's revenue tumbled 35% year-over-year to $688 million. The company also provided a lackluster 2025 outlook, forecasting Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC) revenue to be flat to down 5% and total earnings per share for 2025 to be flat to down 5% compared to 2024, signaling continued challenges.2. Weak Consumer Demand and Economic Headwinds. Persistent high interest rates and broader economic uncertainty continued to dampen consumer confidence, leading to a softening demand for Harley-Davidson's premium motorcycles. This was reflected in a 15% decrease in global retail sales of new motorcycles during Q4 2024.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -26.7% change in HOG stock from 9/22/2025 to 12/22/2025 was primarily driven by a -64.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 9222025 | 12222025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 28.51 | 20.90 | -26.69% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4474.61 | 4664.63 | 4.25% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.43% | 10.74% | 97.98% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.27 | 5.03 | -64.75% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 121.52 | 120.61 | 0.75% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -26.70% |
Market Drivers
9/22/2025 to 12/22/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HOG | -26.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.7% | 37.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 1.9% | 39.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.0% change in HOG stock from 6/23/2025 to 12/22/2025 was primarily driven by a -38.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 6232025 | 12222025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 23.22 | 20.90 | -9.98% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4786.41 | 4664.63 | -2.54% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.39% | 10.74% | 45.46% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.14 | 5.03 | -38.20% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 123.95 | 120.61 | 2.69% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.04% |
Market Drivers
6/23/2025 to 12/22/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HOG | -10.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.4% | 30.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | 14.3% | 38.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -30.1% change in HOG stock from 12/22/2024 to 12/22/2025 was primarily driven by a -22.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 12222024 | 12222025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 29.90 | 20.90 | -30.09% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5552.40 | 4664.63 | -15.99% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.77% | 10.74% | -0.26% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.50 | 5.03 | -22.64% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 130.08 | 120.61 | 7.28% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -30.46% |
Market Drivers
12/22/2024 to 12/22/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HOG | -30.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.9% | 51.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | 7.8% | 54.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -46.1% change in HOG stock from 12/23/2022 to 12/22/2025 was primarily driven by a -36.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 12232022 | 12222025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 38.76 | 20.90 | -46.08% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5629.28 | 4664.63 | -17.14% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.81% | 10.74% | -16.13% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.86 | 5.03 | -36.00% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 146.22 | 120.61 | 17.51% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -47.73% |
Market Drivers
12/23/2023 to 12/22/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HOG | -39.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 47.7% | 45.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | 38.4% | 46.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HOG Return | 0% | 4% | 12% | -10% | -17% | -27% | -36% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | 41% | -40% | -1% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 113% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HOG Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | 32% | 48% | 35% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HOG Max Drawdown | -59% | -13% | -19% | -37% | -18% | -30% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | -11% | -43% | -50% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PII, LVWR, FOXF, THO, WGO. See HOG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/22/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HOG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -50.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 99.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -59.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 147.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 234 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -51.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 107.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -88.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 800.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,882 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
Harley-Davidson's stock fell -50.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/2/2023. A -50.0% loss requires a 99.8% gain to breakeven.
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Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles. The company operates in two segments, Motorcycles and Related Products and Financial Services. The Motorcycles and Related Products segment designs, manufactures, and sells Harley-Davidson motorcycles, including cruiser, touring, standard, sportbike, and dual models, as well as motorcycle parts, accessories, apparel, and related services. This segment sells its products to retail customers through a network of independent dealers, as well as e-commerce channels in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The Financial Services segment provides wholesale financing services, such as floorplan and open account financing of motorcycles, and parts and accessories; and retail financing services, including installment lending for the purchase of new and used Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as point-of-sale protection products comprising motorcycle insurance, extended service contracts, and motorcycle maintenance protection. This segment also licenses third-party financial institutions that issue credit cards bearing the Harley-Davidson brand. Harley-Davidson, Inc. was founded in 1903 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Harley-Davidson:
- The Jeep of motorcycles.
- The Porsche of motorcycles.
- The Rolex of motorcycles.
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```html- Motorcycles: Harley-Davidson designs, manufactures, and sells a wide range of premium motorcycles for various riding styles.
- Parts & Accessories: The company offers genuine parts, accessories, and performance upgrades for its motorcycles, allowing for customization and maintenance.
- General Merchandise: Harley-Davidson sells branded apparel, riding gear, merchandise, and collectibles, fostering its lifestyle brand.
- Financial Services: Through Harley-Davidson Financial Services, the company provides wholesale and retail financing, as well as insurance programs, to dealers and customers.
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Company: Harley-Davidson (Symbol: HOG)
Harley-Davidson primarily sells its motorcycles, parts, accessories, and general merchandise to a global network of independent, authorized dealerships. These dealerships, in turn, sell the products to individual consumers. Therefore, while its immediate customers are other companies (the dealerships), the ultimate and primary target market for Harley-Davidson's products and brand efforts are individual riders.
Based on the individual end-users, Harley-Davidson serves the following customer categories:
- Traditional & Loyalist Riders: This core demographic represents long-standing Harley-Davidson owners, often older, affluent, and deeply immersed in the brand's heritage and lifestyle. They value the classic cruiser aesthetic, the distinctive engine sound, and the camaraderie associated with the Harley-Davidson Owners Group (H.O.G.) and rallies. Their purchasing decisions are often driven by brand loyalty, tradition, and the emotional connection to the "Harley experience."
- New & Younger Riders: This category encompasses individuals who are new to motorcycling or new to the Harley-Davidson brand. They may be attracted by more modern designs, different riding styles, or more accessible entry points into the brand. This segment is crucial for Harley-Davidson's future growth and diversification, seeking models that offer contemporary performance, technology, or urban utility (e.g., from the Sportster S, or Street models, and often seeking a different experience than traditional cruisers).
- Adventure & Touring Riders: These customers prioritize comfort, capability, and performance for long-distance travel, touring, and adventure riding. They often seek motorcycles equipped for extended journeys, with features such as luggage capacity, navigation systems, and robust engines suitable for various terrains. Models like the Road Glide, Street Glide, and the Pan America are designed to cater specifically to the needs and preferences of this segment, appealing to those who value exploration and versatility on two wheels.
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Artie Starrs, President and CEO
Artie Starrs was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Harley-Davidson, effective October 1, 2025. Prior to joining Harley-Davidson, Mr. Starrs served as CEO of Topgolf International, a division of Topgolf Callaway Brands. During his tenure at Topgolf, he oversaw the rapid expansion of the company, leading to a significant increase in revenue and growth across Europe and Asia. Mr. Starrs' background includes extensive experience in managing large, global consumer brands, scaling venues, and driving digital innovation.
Jonathan Root, Chief Financial Officer and President, Commercial
Jonathan Root was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Harley-Davidson in June 2023. Effective January 27, 2025, his role expanded to Chief Financial Officer and President, Commercial, where he now oversees global commercial operations in addition to leading the finance organization. Mr. Root joined Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) in 2011 and previously served as Senior Vice President of HDFS, overseeing global operations, and as President of Eaglemark Savings Bank and Harley-Davidson Insurance. His career also includes various roles at Ally Financial, Inc., GMAC Financial Services, Inc., and General Motors, Inc.
Paul J. Krause, Chief Legal Officer, Chief Compliance Officer, and Secretary
Paul J. Krause has served as Harley-Davidson's Chief Legal Officer, Chief Compliance Officer, and Secretary since 2020. Before this, he held the positions of Interim Chief Legal Officer and Chief Compliance Officer from 2019 to 2020, and Assistant General Counsel and Senior Legal Counsel from 2018 to 2019 at Harley-Davidson. Earlier in his career, Mr. Krause was a Senior Counsel at ArcelorMittal USA LLC.
Jagdish Krishnan, Chief Digital & Operations Officer
Jagdish Krishnan holds the title of Chief Digital & Operations Officer at Harley-Davidson.
Luke Mansfield, Chief Commercial Officer
Luke Mansfield has served as the Chief Commercial Officer of Harley-Davidson Motor Company since 2024.
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The public company Harley-Davidson (HOG) faces several key business risks, primarily stemming from evolving market dynamics and its financial structure. These risks are listed below in order from most significant to least significant:
- Declining Demand and Aging Customer Base: Harley-Davidson's most significant risk is the ongoing struggle to attract new and younger riders, coupled with its traditional customer base growing older. The company has seen declining sales and market share as consumer preferences shift towards more affordable, practical, lighter, or technologically advanced motorcycles offered by competitors. This trend has led to a concerning decline in revenue over the past decade and is a major factor in the company's financial performance.
- Intense Competition: Harley-Davidson faces fierce competition from a wide array of domestic and international motorcycle manufacturers, including Indian Motorcycle (backed by Polaris), Honda, BMW, Triumph, Yamaha, Ducati, Kawasaki, and Suzuki. These competitors often offer more diverse product portfolios, lower price points, and innovative features, including advancements in electric motorcycles, challenging Harley-Davidson's market position and eroding its market share in key segments.
- High Debt Levels and Financial Leverage: The company carries significant debt, a risk exacerbated by its substantial financial services arm, Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS). This high level of leverage increases the company's financial risk and vulnerability, especially in periods of economic uncertainty and rising interest rates, which can make borrowing more expensive and impact consumer financing for motorcycle purchases.
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The following are clear emerging threats for Harley-Davidson (HOG):
-
Accelerating shift towards electric motorcycles and personal mobility solutions: While Harley-Davidson has invested in its LiveWire electric motorcycle brand, the broader market is experiencing a significant and accelerating transition towards electric vehicles. Numerous competitors (e.g., Zero Motorcycles, Damon Motors, CAKE, etc.) are innovating and gaining market traction with electric motorcycles and other personal mobility solutions, which could erode Harley-Davidson's traditional market share and appeal, particularly among environmentally conscious or tech-savvy consumers. The increasing viability, performance, and charging infrastructure for electric alternatives pose a direct challenge to the internal combustion engine bikes that form the core of Harley-Davidson's current revenue.
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Shifting demographic preferences away from traditional large cruisers: Younger generations are demonstrating a reduced interest in the heavy, expensive, and maintenance-intensive traditional cruiser motorcycles that constitute Harley-Davidson's iconic product line. Instead, emerging consumer preferences often lean towards lighter, more agile motorcycles (adventure, naked, sport-touring), alternative forms of urban and recreational personal mobility (e-bikes, scooters), or simply different leisure priorities altogether. This trend poses a significant long-term threat by limiting Harley-Davidson's ability to attract new riders and replenish its aging core demographic, potentially leading to a shrinking addressable market for its traditional offerings.
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Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) operates in several addressable markets related to motorcycles, parts, accessories, apparel, and financial services. The estimated market sizes for their main products and services are as follows:
-
Motorcycles:
- Global market size: The global motorcycle market was valued at approximately USD 71.92 billion in 2024.
- U.S. market size: The U.S. motorcycle market size was valued at USD 10.48 billion in 2024.
-
Motorcycle Parts & Accessories:
- Global market size: The global motorcycle parts and accessories market was valued at USD 157.47 billion in 2024.
- U.S. market size: The U.S. motorcycle, bike & parts market size was USD 6.8 billion in 2024.
-
Motorcycle Apparel:
- Global market size: The global motorcycle apparel market was valued at approximately USD 13.17 billion in 2024.
- North America market size: The North America motorcycle apparel market is expected to reach USD 29.5 billion in 2024.
-
Motorcycle Financial Services:
- North America market size: The North America motorcycle loan market is estimated to be around USD 24 billion in 2024.
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Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Harley-Davidson (HOG) over the next 2-3 years:Expected Revenue Growth Drivers for Harley-Davidson (HOG)
- Launch and Growth of New Products: Harley-Davidson is focusing on product innovation, including the launch of new Street Glide and Road Glide touring motorcycles, which have already contributed to growth in the U.S. Touring segment. The company also plans to introduce new 2026 models, including lower-priced and more accessible motorcycles like the upcoming Harley-Davidson Sprint, aiming to attract new customer segments and offset potential demand softness. Furthermore, expansion into Adventure Touring and within the Cruiser segment is anticipated to unlock untapped volume and margin. The continued development of its electric vehicle (EV) market foray with models like LiveWire also represents a significant growth opportunity.
- Strategic Pricing and Broadening Customer Base: The company is implementing new pricing tiers and experimenting with psychological pricing strategies to enhance affordability and attract younger and new riders. This, coupled with efforts to broaden its customer view to include non-riders and tailor the customer journey through enhanced digital touchpoints, is expected to expand its overall customer base.
- Strengthening Dealer Network and Brand Engagement: Harley-Davidson is intensifying its focus on fostering strong and profitable dealerships, which are seen as fundamental to the company's success. By prioritizing local marketing and enhancing the powerful connection riders have with its iconic brand, Harley-Davidson aims to drive retail sales and sustainable growth.
- Capital-Light HDFS Business Model: The transformation of Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) into a capital-light, de-risked business model through a strategic transaction with KKR and PIMCO is expected to unlock approximately $1.2 billion to $1.25 billion in discretionary cash by the end of the first quarter of 2026. While not a direct motorcycle sales driver, this significant financial flexibility allows for strategic investments in product development, marketing, and other growth initiatives that can ultimately fuel revenue expansion.
- Cost Productivity Initiatives: Harley-Davidson is pursuing multi-year cost productivity initiatives, having achieved approximately $257 million in savings from 2022 to 2024, with an additional $75 million in the first nine months of 2025. These efforts, primarily in logistics and the supply chain, are projected to yield annual productivity savings of $100 million in both 2025 and 2026. Improved operational efficiency and a lean cost structure can enhance profitability and provide resources for revenue-generating activities.
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Share Repurchases
- Harley-Davidson announced a new plan in July 2024 to repurchase $1 billion of its outstanding common stock through 2026.
- The company has completed $875 million in share repurchases since 2022, including $450 million in 2024 alone.
- Harley-Davidson reduced its share count by 25% over the 2022-2024 period, returning over $1.4 billion to shareholders through repurchases and dividends.
Share Issuance
- In October 2025, Harley-Davidson issued 9.8% of its Class A Common Stock to KKR and PIMCO as part of a transaction involving the sale of motorcycle promissory notes and security agreements, which totaled $4.06 billion.
Inbound Investments
- Harley-Davidson entered a strategic partnership with KKR and PIMCO for Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS), which is anticipated to unlock $1.2 billion to $1.25 billion in discretionary cash by early 2026.
- In August 2025, the company sold 95% of its residual interests in securitized consumer loan receivables to investment vehicles managed by KKR and PIMCO, generating over $230 million in proceeds.
- On October 31, 2025, Harley-Davidson Credit Corp. completed the sale of a portion of its motorcycle promissory notes and security agreements portfolio to KKR and PIMCO for $4.06 billion.
Outbound Investments
- Harley-Davidson holds a controlling interest in its electric vehicle brand, LiveWire Group.
- While the company provided an existing $100 million credit line to LiveWire in Q1 2024, it stated in Q1 2025 that it would not make additional investments beyond this, as LiveWire focuses on seeking external capital and reducing cash burn.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for Harley-Davidson averaged $161.4 million annually from fiscal years 2020 to 2024, reaching a peak of $207.4 million in 2023.
- For 2025, the company has an outlook for capital investments ranging from $225 million to $250 million.
- The primary focus of these capital expenditures includes product development for electric vehicles (LiveWire) and more affordable models, along with enhancing digital capabilities and strengthening the dealer network.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to HOG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.9% | 3.9% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.8% | 3.8% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.9% | 19.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -1.6% |
| 06302020 | HOG | Harley-Davidson | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 53.6% | 94.4% | -4.1% |
| 12312018 | HOG | Harley-Davidson | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 13.6% | -9.0% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons for Harley-Davidson
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 31.66 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.9 |
| Rev LTM | 3,770 |
| Op Inc LTM | 102 |
| FCF LTM | 255 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 267 |
| CFO LTM | 337 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 422 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -4.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -9.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 2.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.9 |
| P/S | 0.5 |
| P/EBIT | 0.1 |
| P/E | 1.1 |
| P/CFO | 5.5 |
| Total Yield | 1.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 13.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -10.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | -18.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 15.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -2.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -6.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -30.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -99.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $20.90 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/05/1987 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -31.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $24.47 | $24.89 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -14.6% | -16.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 33.6% | 43.7% |
| Downside Capture | 171.43 | 133.21 |
| Upside Capture | -1.42 | 77.86 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 38.5% | 52.0% |
HOG Betas & Captures as of 11/30/2025
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.63 | 0.93 | 0.97 | 1.26 | 1.15 | 1.15 |
| Up Beta | 0.84 | 0.53 | 1.06 | 1.30 | 1.33 | 1.30 |
| Down Beta | 1.51 | 1.65 | 1.39 | 1.73 | 1.06 | 0.92 |
| Up Capture | 107% | 14% | 14% | 85% | 71% | 79% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 26 | 39 | 74 | 142 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 65 | 123 | 356 |
| Down Capture | 220% | 116% | 124% | 123% | 114% | 107% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 52 | 107 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 21 | 31 | 61 | 126 | 391 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Comparison of HOG With Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOG | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | -31.9% | 3.1% | 14.7% | 67.3% | 6.8% | -0.5% | -16.6% |
| Annualized Volatility | 43.5% | 24.7% | 19.7% | 19.3% | 15.2% | 17.6% | 35.4% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.76 | 0.07 | 0.57 | 2.54 | 0.23 | -0.18 | -0.25 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 55.2% | 52.4% | -6.0% | 22.7% | 50.2% | 29.1% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLY, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Comparison of HOG With Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOG | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | -8.7% | 10.2% | 15.0% | 18.9% | 11.8% | 5.1% | 35.8% |
| Annualized Volatility | 41.3% | 23.8% | 17.1% | 15.5% | 18.7% | 18.9% | 48.9% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.09 | 0.39 | 0.71 | 0.98 | 0.51 | 0.18 | 0.63 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 48.9% | 48.9% | 1.3% | 11.5% | 44.3% | 19.5% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLY, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Comparison of HOG With Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOG | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | -5.2% | 13.3% | 14.9% | 14.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 69.9% |
| Annualized Volatility | 42.6% | 22.0% | 18.0% | 14.8% | 17.6% | 20.8% | 55.8% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.02 | 0.56 | 0.71 | 0.84 | 0.30 | 0.23 | 0.90 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 54.0% | 55.3% | -0.3% | 19.9% | 47.5% | 15.7% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLY, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | -6.5% | -6.9% | -11.8% |
| 7/30/2025 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 27.1% |
| 5/1/2025 | 2.8% | 2.5% | 8.0% |
| 2/5/2025 | -1.6% | -2.2% | -4.4% |
| 10/24/2024 | -7.2% | -5.6% | -3.8% |
| 7/25/2024 | 7.4% | 10.7% | 7.1% |
| 4/25/2024 | -15.7% | -12.8% | -10.9% |
| 2/8/2024 | 1.1% | 6.7% | 11.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 15 | 14 |
| # Negative | 8 | 7 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 8.7% | 8.4% | 10.7% |
| Median Negative | -6.5% | -5.6% | -8.4% |
| Max Positive | 22.1% | 18.9% | 42.9% |
| Max Negative | -15.7% | -12.8% | -11.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/25/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/26/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/27/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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