Harley-Davidson (HOG)


Market Price (8/12/2026): $27.17 | Market Cap: $2.9 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Motorcycle Manufacturers

Harley-Davidson (HOG)


Market Price (8/12/2026): $27.17
Market Cap: $2.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Motorcycle Manufacturers

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 2.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.7%

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.6 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 39%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Luxury Consumer Goods.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -68%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -96%

Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17%

Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -10%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.9%

Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.1%

Key risks
HOG key risks include [1] its struggle to attract younger riders as its core customer base ages, Show more.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 2.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.7%
1 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.6 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 39%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Luxury Consumer Goods.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -68%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -96%
5 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -10%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.9%
7 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.1%
8 Key risks
HOG key risks include [1] its struggle to attract younger riders as its core customer base ages, Show more.

HOG in ETFs

Weight = HOG's share of each fund

IWM0.04%
IJH0.07%
VYM0.01%
VB0.03%
AVUV0.40%
NUSC0.21%
MDYV0.15%
IJJ0.15%
+12 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 8/4/2026

Harley-Davidson (HOG) stock has gained about 15% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Harley-Davidson raised its full-year 2026 guidance following its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report, signaling confidence in its "Back to the Bricks" strategy. The company increased its expected global motorcycle shipments for 2026 to a range of 133,500 to 138,500 units and lifted its HDMC operating income guidance to $10 million-$50 million, up from a previous loss-to-breakeven range. Additionally, Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) operating income guidance was raised to $55 million-$70 million.

2. The core Harley-Davidson Motorcycle (HDMC) segment demonstrated strong performance in fiscal Q2 2026, particularly in North America. HDMC revenue increased by 6% to $1.1 billion, and North American retail motorcycle sales grew by 3% to 29,751 units. This indicates effective execution of the company's strategic initiatives in its largest market.

Show more
Updated on 8/4/2026

Harley-Davidson (HOG) stock has gained about 15% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Harley-Davidson raised its full-year 2026 guidance following its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report, signaling confidence in its "Back to the Bricks" strategy. The company increased its expected global motorcycle shipments for 2026 to a range of 133,500 to 138,500 units and lifted its HDMC operating income guidance to $10 million-$50 million, up from a previous loss-to-breakeven range. Additionally, Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) operating income guidance was raised to $55 million-$70 million.

2. The core Harley-Davidson Motorcycle (HDMC) segment demonstrated strong performance in fiscal Q2 2026, particularly in North America. HDMC revenue increased by 6% to $1.1 billion, and North American retail motorcycle sales grew by 3% to 29,751 units. This indicates effective execution of the company's strategic initiatives in its largest market.

3. Strategic inventory management and new product introductions contributed to a healthier market position. Global dealer inventory of new motorcycles was reduced by 17% year-over-year by the end of fiscal Q2 2026, aligning wholesale shipments more closely with retail sales and suggesting improved dealer margins. The company also introduced new models, such as the 2026 Super Glide in June and the Deadwood motorcycle, slated for public debut at the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, expanding its product portfolio.

4. Analyst sentiment improved, with several firms raising their price targets for Harley-Davidson stock. For example, DA Davidson increased its price target from $25.00 to $30.00 and maintained a "buy" rating in July 2026. This reflected growing analyst confidence in the company's turnaround plan and future prospects.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 12.7% change in HOG stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 73.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)43020268112026Change
Stock Price ($)23.7126.7212.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)4,4734,240-5.2%
Net Income Margin (%)7.6%4.8%-36.9%
P/E Multiple8.013.973.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1141058.7%
Cumulative Contribution12.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2026 to 8/11/2026
ReturnCorrelation
HOG12.7% 
Market (SPY)7.2%27.8%
Sector (XLY)0.8%25.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The 37.4% change in HOG stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 196.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120268112026Change
Stock Price ($)19.4426.7237.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)4,6654,240-9.1%
Net Income Margin (%)10.7%4.8%-55.5%
P/E Multiple4.713.9196.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)12110514.8%
Cumulative Contribution37.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2026 to 8/11/2026
ReturnCorrelation
HOG37.4% 
Market (SPY)11.7%20.8%
Sector (XLY)-1.4%26.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The 13.4% change in HOG stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 67.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)73120258112026Change
Stock Price ($)23.5626.7213.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)4,7864,240-11.4%
Net Income Margin (%)7.4%4.8%-35.3%
P/E Multiple8.313.967.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)12410517.9%
Cumulative Contribution13.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 8/11/2026
ReturnCorrelation
HOG13.4% 
Market (SPY)22.9%26.6%
Sector (XLY)8.3%32.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The -25.3% change in HOG stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/11/2026 was primarily driven by a -64.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)73120238112026Change
Stock Price ($)35.7926.72-25.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)6,0494,240-29.9%
Net Income Margin (%)13.6%4.8%-64.9%
P/E Multiple6.413.9118.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)14610539.0%
Cumulative Contribution-25.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2023 to 8/11/2026
ReturnCorrelation
HOG-25.3% 
Market (SPY)74.3%40.7%
Sector (XLY)40.4%41.8%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
HOG Return4%12%-10%-17%-30%30%-20%
Peers Return29%-30%41%-40%-8%-16%-40%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%13%106%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
HOG Win Rate50%42%50%50%25%75% 
Peers Win Rate56%30%48%35%52%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
HOG Max Drawdown-32%-29%-49%-31%-33%-19% 
Peers Max Drawdown-28%-40%-37%-46%-52%-45% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PII, LVWR, FOXF, THO, WGO. See HOG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/11/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventHOGS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-21.7%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven27.7%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven127 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-30.3%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven43.4%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven58 days24 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-18.9%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven23.3%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven43 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-56.3%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven128.8%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven207 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-28.3%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven39.4%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven757 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-36.6%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven57.8%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven287 days62 days

Compare to PII, LVWR, FOXF, THO, WGO

In The Past

Harley-Davidson's stock fell -21.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 27.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventHOGS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-21.7%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven27.7%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven127 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-30.3%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven43.4%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven58 days24 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-56.3%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven128.8%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven207 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-28.3%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven39.4%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven757 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-36.6%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven57.8%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven287 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-39.2%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven64.4%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven308 days15 days
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-30.1%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven43.0%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven165 days123 days
2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash
  % Loss-38.8%-15.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven63.4%18.2%
  Time to Breakeven168 days125 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-82.0%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven454.2%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven866 days1085 days
Summer 2007 Credit Crunch
  % Loss-25.2%-8.6%
  % Gain to Breakeven33.7%9.5%
  Time to Breakeven2008 days47 days

Compare to PII, LVWR, FOXF, THO, WGO

In The Past

Harley-Davidson's stock fell -21.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 27.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Harley-Davidson (HOG)

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) is an American manufacturer renowned for its iconic motorcycles. The company designs, manufactures, and sells a diverse range of Harley-Davidson motorcycles, including cruiser, touring, standard, sportbike, and dual models. Beyond the motorcycles themselves, it also provides a comprehensive suite of related products such as motorcycle parts, accessories, and branded apparel.

These products reach retail customers globally through an extensive network of independent dealers and e-commerce channels. Harley-Davidson's market footprint spans the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific region, ensuring its legendary brand serves a wide international customer base.

In addition to its manufacturing segment, Harley-Davidson operates a significant Financial Services division. This segment offers wholesale financing to its dealers for motorcycles, parts, and accessories. For individual customers, it provides retail financing services for both new and used Harley-Davidson motorcycles, alongside point-of-sale protection products like motorcycle insurance, extended service contracts, and maintenance protection. The company also licenses its brand for co-branded credit cards.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Harley-Davidson (HOG):

  • Harley-Davidson is like Jeep for motorcycles, given its iconic brand, strong community, and focus on a distinct type of vehicle with a passionate lifestyle following.
  • Harley-Davidson is like Ford for motorcycles, as it manufactures and sells its own iconic vehicles and also provides comprehensive financial services (like Ford Credit) to support both dealers and retail customers for its products.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Motorcycles

    Designs, manufactures, and sells various models of Harley-Davidson motorcycles, including cruiser, touring, standard, sportbike, and dual models.
  • Motorcycle Parts & Accessories

    Sells parts and accessories designed for Harley-Davidson motorcycles.
  • Apparel

    Sells Harley-Davidson branded apparel and related merchandise.
  • Wholesale Financing

    Provides financing services to independent dealers for their inventory of motorcycles, parts, and accessories.
  • Retail Financing

    Offers installment lending to customers for the purchase of new and used Harley-Davidson motorcycles.
  • Protection Products

    Sells point-of-sale protection products such as motorcycle insurance, extended service contracts, and motorcycle maintenance protection.
  • Credit Card Licensing

    Licenses third-party financial institutions to issue credit cards bearing the Harley-Davidson brand.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Harley-Davidson (HOG) primarily sells its motorcycles and related products to individual retail customers through its global network of independent dealers and e-commerce channels. While independent dealers serve as the crucial distribution network, the ultimate major customers for Harley-Davidson are the individual riders who purchase and use their products.

Based on its product lines and strong brand identity, Harley-Davidson serves the following key categories of individual customers:

  • Core Enthusiasts and Brand Loyalists: These customers are deeply invested in the Harley-Davidson brand's rich heritage, lifestyle, and community. They often own classic cruiser or touring models, frequently purchase accessories, apparel, and actively participate in brand-related events and rallies. This segment represents the traditional, dedicated customer base.
  • Lifestyle and Image Seekers: This category encompasses individuals drawn to the iconic Harley-Davidson image of freedom, adventure, and personal expression. They may be newer to riding or to the brand, for whom the motorcycle represents a significant lifestyle statement and a symbol of belonging to a broader culture.
  • Adventure and Performance Riders: With its expansion into more diverse models such as adventure touring (e.g., Pan America) and sportbike offerings, Harley-Davidson is increasingly appealing to riders who prioritize specific performance characteristics, modern technology, and versatility for varied riding experiences beyond traditional cruising.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Artie Starrs, President and CEO

Artie Starrs was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Harley-Davidson, effective October 1, 2025. He joined Harley-Davidson from Topgolf Callaway Brands, where he previously served as CEO of the Topgolf International, Inc. subsidiary. Starrs is recognized for his leadership in delivering top and bottom-line growth and his experience in franchise-driven industries.

Jonathan Root, Chief Financial and Commercial Officer

Jonathan Root serves as Harley-Davidson's Chief Financial and Commercial Officer, a newly created role announced on December 10, 2025. This position combines his responsibilities as Chief Financial Officer with leadership of the Commercial organization, emphasizing dealer relations and integration with Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS). Root was promoted to President, Commercial, effective January 27, 2025, while maintaining his CFO role. He was appointed CFO in June 2023. Prior to this, he was a Senior Vice President at HDFS, where he held various leadership positions including President of Eaglemark Savings Bank and Harley-Davidson Insurance, having joined HDFS in 2011.

Bryan Niketh, Chief Operating Officer

Bryan Niketh rejoined Harley-Davidson as Chief Operating Officer, effective January 5, 2026. He brings 20 years of prior experience with the company and most recently served as President of White River Marine Group. In his current role, Niketh oversees Product Management, Product Development, and Product Operations, contributing deep institutional knowledge and renewed operational leadership.

Matt Ryan, Chief Marketing and Technology Officer

Matt Ryan was named Chief Marketing and Technology Officer, joining Harley-Davidson on December 8, 2025. He previously held the position of Chief Marketing Officer at Boyd Gaming. In his role at Harley-Davidson, Ryan is responsible for uniting the company's marketing, digital, and technology capabilities to enable data-driven marketing, integrated digital experiences, and enhanced engagement with riders and customers.

Marcus Fischer, Chief Brand Officer

Marcus Fischer assumed the role of Chief Brand Officer, effective December 8, 2025, reporting to Matt Ryan. Fischer joined Harley-Davidson from Carmichael Lynch, an agency known for creating many of the brand's iconic campaigns. He leads brand strategy, creative direction, and long-term brand positioning for the company.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The public company Harley-Davidson (symbol: HOG) faces several significant risks to its business, primarily stemming from shifting demographics and market dynamics.

  1. Aging Customer Base and Inability to Attract Younger Riders: Harley-Davidson's traditional demographic of older, predominantly male riders is aging out, and the company has struggled to attract new, younger customers, such as millennials and Gen Z. This demographic shift is a critical long-term challenge, as these younger generations often prioritize different values, including sustainability, technology, affordability, and lighter, more agile motorcycles, which do not align with Harley-Davidson's traditional offerings and higher price points.
  2. Declining Sales and Revenue: Directly related to the demographic challenges, Harley-Davidson has experienced consistent declines in retail motorcycle sales, revenue, and shipments over several years. Reports indicate double-digit drops in U.S. retail sales and overall revenue declines, reflecting a weak demand for the company's core products. This persistent decline impacts profitability and the company's financial outlook.
  3. Intense Competition and Shifting Market Preferences: Harley-Davidson faces aggressive competition from both established motorcycle manufacturers like Indian (Polaris), Yamaha, Honda, Ducati, and BMW, which offer a diverse range of motorcycles, often at lower price points or with advanced technology. Additionally, the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) in the motorcycle market presents a challenge. While Harley-Davidson has its own EV division (LiveWire), it has faced significant sales declines in this segment and lower profit margins compared to traditional models, as younger riders increasingly gravitate towards alternative brands and electric options.

AI Analysis | Feedback

```html Emerging Threats:
  • Rapid Shift to Electric Motorcycles by Competitors: The accelerating global trend towards electric vehicles (EVs), including two-wheeled vehicles, represents a significant emerging threat. As competitors, both established motorcycle manufacturers and new entrants, innovate and bring to market electric motorcycles with improving range, performance, and charging infrastructure, Harley-Davidson's core business of manufacturing and selling traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) motorcycles (cruiser, touring, standard, sportbike, and dual models), as described, could face significant market share erosion and declining demand if consumer preferences shift rapidly towards electric alternatives. This technological disruption could fundamentally challenge the relevance of its established product lines, mirroring historical disruptions where new technologies displaced incumbent offerings.
```

AI Analysis | Feedback

Addressable Markets for Harley-Davidson's Main Products and Services

Motorcycles

  • The global motorcycle market was estimated at USD 75.46 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 118.90 billion by 2034, exhibiting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.31%.
  • In the United States, the motorcycle market is projected to reach an estimated value of USD 8.76 billion by 2032.
  • The global motorcycle market size is also reported as USD 142.83 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach USD 166.55 billion by 2030, reflecting a 3.12% CAGR over the period.
  • The "more than 800cc" engine capacity segment, relevant for Harley-Davidson, is the fastest-growing segment with a likely CAGR of 12.5% from 2025 to 2033, driven by increasing disposable incomes and a preference for premium motorcycles in developed markets like North America and Europe.

Motorcycle Parts and Accessories

  • The global motorcycle accessories market was estimated at USD 18.2 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow from USD 19.3 billion in 2026 to USD 35.3 billion in 2035, at a CAGR of 6.95%.
  • North America dominated the motorcycle accessories market, accounting for USD 6.3 billion in 2025 and anticipated to show a growth of 6.5% CAGR over the forecast period.

Motorcycle Apparel

  • The global motorcycle apparel market was worth approximately USD 13.98 billion in 2024 and is expected to surpass USD 29.64 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 7.2% from 2025 to 2034.
  • Another estimate for the global motorcycle apparel market states USD 96.74 billion in 2024, projected to grow from USD 100.8 billion in 2025 to USD 152.14 billion by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 4.2%.
  • The global motorbike riding gear market size, which includes apparel, was estimated at USD 13.18 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 18.08 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 5.5% from 2025 to 2030.

Financial Services (Motorcycle Loans)

  • The global motorcycle loan market size was estimated at USD 150.51 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow from USD 160.3 billion in 2025 to USD 300.96 billion by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 6.5%.
  • North America is the largest market for motorcycle loans, holding approximately 45% of the global share.
  • The U.S. motorcycle loan market was estimated at USD 5.2 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 8.1 billion by 2034, registering a CAGR of 4.5%.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Harley-Davidson (HOG) is focusing on several key areas to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, despite a challenging market environment. These drivers are primarily centered around its strategic "Hardwire" plan and efforts to diversify its offerings and geographic reach.

  1. Strengthening Core Segments and Expanding into New Product Categories: Harley-Davidson's "Hardwire" strategic plan (2021-2025) emphasizes concentrating on its most profitable motorcycle categories: Touring, large Cruiser, and Trike models. The company aims to solidify its leadership in these segments by offering curated product portfolios and recent model updates. Additionally, Harley-Davidson is expanding its product lineup by selectively entering new segments such as Adventure Touring, notably with the Pan America model, and within the Sport category. A significant growth driver is also the continued investment in and expansion of its electric motorcycle offerings through the LiveWire brand, aiming to attract new riders and lead the emerging electric vehicle sector.
  2. International Market Expansion and Partnerships: The company is actively pursuing opportunities in global markets to diversify its revenue streams beyond traditional strongholds. Growth priorities include the EU, UK, Australia, and Japan, with efforts to rebuild European market share through tailored model mixes, localized pricing, and enhanced dealer capabilities. Furthermore, Harley-Davidson is focusing on emerging markets like India and China, utilizing strategic partnerships (e.g., with Hero MotoCorp in India) to develop and introduce mid-capacity models, thereby improving market penetration in these regions.
  3. Growth of Higher-Margin Complementary Businesses: Harley-Davidson is broadening its higher-margin revenue streams by focusing on its Parts & Accessories, Apparel, and related services. This strategy aims to leverage the brand's global lifestyle appeal and increase the lifetime value of its customers. The company also plans to support growth across its complementary businesses through initiatives like the Harley-Davidson Certified pre-owned motorcycle program. Additionally, the Financial Services (HDFS) segment, which recorded high earnings in 2025 due to favorable credit loss provisions, is expected to continue playing a role in boosting sell-through and customer loyalty, despite a shift to a capital-light model.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • In July 2024, Harley-Davidson announced a new plan to repurchase $1 billion of its common stock through 2026, in addition to $875 million in share repurchases completed since 2022.
  • The company returned $347 million to shareholders through discretionary share repurchases in 2025.
  • Harley-Davidson repurchased $450 million of shares in 2024.

Inbound Investments

  • In 2025, Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) formed a strategic partnership with KKR and PIMCO, involving the sale of most existing retail loan receivables and a 9.8% equity stake in HDFS.
  • This transaction unlocked approximately $1.25 billion in cash for Harley-Davidson.
  • HDFS is also set to sell approximately two-thirds of its future retail loan originations to KKR and PIMCO over a five-year period.

Capital Expenditures

  • Harley-Davidson plans capital investments of $175 million to $200 million for 2026, with a strategic focus on growth and market expansion.
  • Expected capital investments for the full year 2025 were in the range of $225 million to $250 million.
  • Capital expenditures for the first half of 2025 were $65.56 million, a decrease from $87.835 million in the first half of 2024.

Better Bets vs. Harley-Davidson (HOG)

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Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

HOGPIILVWRFOXFTHOWGOMedian
NameHarley-D.Polaris LiveWire Fox Fact.Thor Ind.Winnebag. 
Mkt Price26.7270.091.1621.5481.3132.7929.75
Mkt Cap2.84.00.20.94.20.91.9
Rev LTM4,2407,445311,4649,8202,9123,576
Op Inc LTM213170-724124976123
FCF LTM-13367-511320012640
FCF 3Y Avg467237-7892430141189
CFO LTM-0248-483733615797
CFO 3Y Avg639499-72129569184341

Growth & Margins

HOGPIILVWRFOXFTHOWGOMedian
NameHarley-D.Polaris LiveWire Fox Fact.Thor Ind.Winnebag. 
Rev Chg LTM-5.2%8.4%31.3%1.6%2.4%5.8%4.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-10.4%-6.0%-3.5%-2.7%-6.7%-12.0%-6.4%
Rev Chg Q-5.9%9.2%55.2%-4.5%-3.9%6.0%1.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.8%2.3%11.6%-1.1%-1.1%1.3%0.1%
Op Inc Chg LTM15.0%25.1%20.4%-31.5%-24.8%20.7%17.7%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg-28.0%-30.0%11.0%-40.5%-31.3%-34.6%-30.7%
Op Mgn LTM5.0%2.3%-230.9%2.8%2.5%2.6%2.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg6.9%3.5%-317.1%4.3%3.4%3.9%3.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.8%1.4%27.6%-0.0%-0.8%0.1%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM-0.0%3.3%-152.1%2.5%3.4%5.4%2.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg12.6%6.7%-246.6%9.3%5.8%6.2%6.4%
FCF/Rev LTM-3.1%0.9%-162.7%0.9%2.0%4.3%0.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg9.1%3.2%-267.1%6.7%4.3%4.7%4.5%

Valuation

HOGPIILVWRFOXFTHOWGOMedian
NameHarley-D.Polaris LiveWire Fox Fact.Thor Ind.Winnebag. 
Mkt Cap2.84.00.20.94.20.91.9
P/S0.70.57.60.60.40.30.6
P/Op Inc13.223.8-3.321.917.012.215.1
P/EBIT9.0-24.4-3.4-3.311.512.22.9
P/E13.9-15.5-3.2-3.016.222.25.4
P/CFO-11,012.716.3-5.024.712.75.99.3
Total Yield10.2%-2.7%-30.8%-33.0%7.4%8.7%2.4%
Dividend Yield2.9%3.8%0.0%0.0%1.3%4.2%2.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg13.1%8.3%-12.5%6.3%9.2%12.5%8.7%
D/E0.80.50.30.80.20.50.5
Net D/E0.10.40.10.70.10.50.3

Returns

HOGPIILVWRFOXFTHOWGOMedian
NameHarley-D.Polaris LiveWire Fox Fact.Thor Ind.Winnebag. 
1M Rtn6.3%4.0%66.8%26.8%11.6%11.6%11.6%
3M Rtn6.3%9.4%-16.5%28.0%9.6%12.3%9.5%
6M Rtn29.9%5.7%-49.1%8.7%-30.5%-28.9%-11.6%
12M Rtn14.2%40.1%-64.8%-22.3%-12.7%13.0%0.1%
3Y Rtn-15.9%-36.4%-90.3%-80.7%-19.4%-45.6%-41.0%
1M Excs Rtn2.4%1.9%59.9%21.5%10.2%8.1%9.1%
3M Excs Rtn1.2%2.5%-27.9%19.5%5.4%4.6%3.6%
6M Excs Rtn24.1%-7.2%-66.5%1.0%-42.4%-41.0%-24.1%
12M Excs Rtn-7.0%21.3%-85.6%-44.2%-33.3%-8.6%-21.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-95.8%-111.9%-162.5%-153.1%-94.5%-119.1%-115.5%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC)3,5784,1224,8454,8884,504
Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS)8691,039954821796
LiveWire2626384736
Total4,4735,1875,8365,7555,336


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS)490248235318415
Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC)-29278661677477
LiveWire-75-110-117-85-68
Total387417779909823


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS)4,0328,1038,2307,8877,743
Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC)3,8673,6313,6443,2543,246
LiveWire14714826635162
Total8,04511,88212,14111,49211,051


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$26.72 
Market Cap ($ Bil)2.9 
First Trading Date11/05/1987 
Distance from 52W High-11.1% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$25.47$22.61
DMA Trendindeterminateup
Distance from DMA4.9%18.2%
 3M1YR
Volatility38.9%38.9%
Downside Capture62.0177.06
Upside Capture76.8874.46
Correlation (SPY)30.3%27.6%
HOG Betas & Captures as of 7/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.510.510.750.520.761.04
Up Beta0.790.570.360.570.921.25
Down Beta2.420.630.500.490.650.83
Up Capture-14%53%95%68%54%63%
Bmk +ve Days11223567138427
Stock +ve Days10213165123359
Down Capture-21%38%97%32%88%105%
Bmk -ve Days11212859114326
Stock -ve Days12223261128390

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with HOG
HOG14.0%38.8%0.42-
Sector ETF (XLY)7.2%19.4%0.2432.9%
Equity (SPY)22.1%12.8%1.2827.3%
Gold (GLD)28.2%28.4%0.863.3%
Commodities (DBC)37.4%20.1%1.47-2.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)12.5%13.8%0.6126.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-45.3%42.9%-1.2818.2%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with HOG
HOG-5.7%40.4%-0.03-
Sector ETF (XLY)6.4%24.0%0.2250.3%
Equity (SPY)13.3%17.2%0.6049.6%
Gold (GLD)18.8%18.6%0.820.1%
Commodities (DBC)9.3%19.6%0.369.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)1.9%18.9%-0.0044.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)10.9%52.8%0.3920.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with HOG
HOG-4.0%42.5%0.05-
Sector ETF (XLY)12.4%22.2%0.5153.0%
Equity (SPY)15.3%17.9%0.7354.4%
Gold (GLD)12.0%16.2%0.611.1%
Commodities (DBC)7.9%18.0%0.3517.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.5%20.7%0.1847.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)59.4%66.1%0.9915.0%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date7312026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity18.2 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 71520266.6%
Average Daily Volume3.2 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.7 days
Basic Shares Quantity105.1 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares17.4%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 8/3/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/23/2026-4.0%-10.1% 
5/5/20268.2%10.0%4.5%
2/10/20264.0%1.0%-8.7%
11/4/2025-6.5%-6.9%-12.5%
7/30/202513.4%5.6%27.1%
5/1/20252.8%2.5%8.0%
2/5/2025-1.6%-2.2%-4.4%
10/24/2024-7.2%-5.6%-3.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141513
# Negative878
Median Positive8.0%8.4%9.4%
Median Negative-6.5%-6.9%-8.3%
Max Positive22.1%18.9%42.9%
Max Negative-15.7%-12.8%-12.5%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/23/2026-4.0%-10.1% 
5/5/20268.2%10.0%4.5%
2/10/20264.0%1.0%-8.7%
11/4/2025-6.5%-6.9%-12.5%
7/30/202513.4%5.6%27.1%
5/1/20252.8%2.5%8.0%
2/5/2025-1.6%-2.2%-4.4%
10/24/2024-7.2%-5.6%-3.8%
7/25/20247.4%10.7%7.1%
4/25/2024-15.7%-12.8%-10.9%
2/8/20241.1%6.7%11.9%
10/26/2023-6.5%-5.3%5.8%
7/27/20230.1%0.8%-11.9%
2/2/202310.7%5.3%2.1%
10/26/202212.6%18.7%27.3%
7/28/20227.8%9.5%20.7%
4/27/2022-0.5%6.2%-7.9%
2/8/202215.5%13.4%8.6%
10/27/20213.6%8.4%9.4%
7/21/2021-7.2%-9.5%-8.0%
4/19/20219.7%18.9%28.7%
10/27/202022.1%13.9%42.9%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141513
# Negative878
Median Positive8.0%8.4%9.4%
Median Negative-6.5%-6.9%-8.3%
Max Positive22.1%18.9%42.9%
Max Negative-15.7%-12.8%-12.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/05/202610-Q
03/31/202605/06/202610-Q
12/31/202502/26/202610-K
09/30/202511/05/202510-Q
06/30/202508/06/202510-Q
03/31/202505/06/202510-Q
12/31/202402/26/202510-K
09/30/202411/06/202410-Q
06/30/202408/07/202410-Q
03/31/202405/06/202410-Q
12/31/202302/23/202410-K
09/30/202311/08/202310-Q
06/30/202308/09/202310-Q
03/31/202305/10/202310-Q
12/31/202202/24/202310-K
09/30/202211/03/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/05/202610-Q
03/31/202605/06/202610-Q
12/31/202502/26/202610-K
09/30/202511/05/202510-Q
06/30/202508/06/202510-Q
03/31/202505/06/202510-Q
12/31/202402/26/202510-K
09/30/202411/06/202410-Q
06/30/202408/07/202410-Q
03/31/202405/06/202410-Q
12/31/202302/23/202410-K
09/30/202311/08/202310-Q
06/30/202308/09/202310-Q
03/31/202305/10/202310-Q
12/31/202202/24/202310-K
09/30/202211/03/202210-Q
06/30/202208/04/202210-Q
03/31/202205/05/202210-Q
12/31/202102/25/202210-K
09/30/202111/04/202110-Q
06/30/202108/05/202110-Q
03/31/202105/06/202110-Q
12/31/202002/23/202110-K
09/30/202011/05/202010-Q
06/30/202008/06/202010-Q
03/31/202005/07/202010-Q
12/31/201902/19/202010-K
09/30/201911/07/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 7/24/2026

Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/23/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 HDMC global motorcycle retail sales0.13 Mil0.14 Mil0.14 Mil2.6% RaisedGuidance: 0.13 Mil for 2026
2026 HDMC global motorcycle wholesale shipments0.13 Mil0.14 Mil0.14 Mil2.6% RaisedGuidance: 0.13 Mil for 2026
2026 HDMC operating income10.00 Mil30.00 Mil50.00 Mil-300.0% RaisedGuidance: -15.00 Mil for 2026
2026 HDFS operating income55.00 Mil60.00 Mil65.00 Mil14.3% RaisedGuidance: 52.50 Mil for 2026
2026 LiveWire operating loss-80.00 Mil-75.00 Mil-70.00 Mil0.0% AffirmedGuidance: -75.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Capital investments175.00 Mil187.50 Mil200.00 Mil0.0% AffirmedGuidance: 187.50 Mil for 2026

Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 HDMC global motorcycle retail sales0.13 Mil0.13 Mil0.14 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: 0.13 Mil for 2026
2026 HDMC global motorcycle wholesale shipments0.13 Mil0.13 Mil0.14 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: 0.13 Mil for 2026
2026 HDMC operating income-40.00 Mil-15.00 Mil10.00 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: -15.00 Mil for 2026
2026 HDFS operating income45.00 Mil52.50 Mil60.00 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: 52.50 Mil for 2026
2026 LiveWire operating loss-80.00 Mil-75.00 Mil-70.00 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: -75.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Capital Expenditures175.00 Mil187.50 Mil200.00 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: 187.50 Mil for 2026

Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/10/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 HDMC global motorcycle retail sales0.13 Mil0.13 Mil0.14 Mil   
2026 HDMC global motorcycle wholesale shipments0.13 Mil0.13 Mil0.14 Mil   
2026 HDMC operating income-40.00 Mil-15.00 Mil10.00 Mil   
2026 HDFS operating income45.00 Mil52.50 Mil60.00 Mil   
2026 LiveWire operating loss-80.00 Mil-75.00 Mil-70.00 Mil0.7% Lower NewActual: -74.50 Mil for 2025
2026 Capital Expenditures175.00 Mil187.50 Mil200.00 Mil   

Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2025 LiveWire Operating Loss-77.00 Mil-74.50 Mil-72.00 Mil16.4% LoweredGuidance: -64.00 Mil for 2025
2025 LiveWire Net Use of Cash-60.00 Mil-55.00 Mil-50.00 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: -55.00 Mil for 2025
2026 Share Repurchases 1.00 Bil    

Insider Activity

Updated 8/11/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Starrs, ArtiePresident & CEODirectBuy811202625.8910,000258,941647,352Form
2Root, Jonathan RCFO and CCODirectSell805202624.881,55438,664692,814Form
3Nova, Daniel J DirectBuy803202624.5740,000982,7001,169,536Form
4Root, Jonathan RCFO and CCODirectSell706202624.441,55437,980718,536Form
5Root, Jonathan RCFO and CCODirectSell603202623.871,55437,094738,872Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Starrs, ArtiePresident & CEODirectBuy811202625.8910,000258,941647,352Form
2Root, Jonathan RCFO and CCODirectSell805202624.881,55438,664692,814Form
3Nova, Daniel J DirectBuy803202624.5740,000982,7001,169,536Form
4Root, Jonathan RCFO and CCODirectSell706202624.441,55437,980718,536Form
5Root, Jonathan RCFO and CCODirectSell603202623.871,55437,094738,872Form
6Root, Jonathan RCFO and CCODirectSell521202624.211,55437,622787,019Form
7Krause, Paul JChief Legal OfficerDirectSell513202626.001,56440,664780,312Form
8Do, CharlesSr. Vice President, HDFSIDirectSell316202618.094,24176,7413,311Form
9Flees, Lori Ann DirectBuy309202618.894,00075,546211,679Form
10Starrs, ArtiePresident & CEODirectBuy309202619.1015,000286,500286,500Form
11Masood, Rafeh DirectBuy302202618.002,77549,950134,640Form
12Farley, Jr James D DirectSell226202618.716,454120,780303,268Form
13Mansfield, Luke ChristopherChief Commercial OfficerDirectSell1124202523.2111,500266,954279,838Form
14Do, CharlesSr. Vice President, HDFSIDirectSell1112202525.514,136105,5094,668Form
15Masood, Rafeh DirectBuy807202524.062,06849,756113,202Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Aug 12, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Gate City Capital Management, LLC$45.9 Mil17.9%16New13F
FIFTHDELTA Ltd$43.1 Mil5.9%11ADD +376.4%13F
Aegis Financial Corp$27.7 Mil4.8%37New13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Gate City Capital Management, LLC$45.9 Mil17.9%16New13F
Aegis Financial Corp$27.7 Mil4.8%37New13F
FIFTHDELTA Ltd$43.1 Mil5.9%11ADD +376.4%13F
Active Manager
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Gate City Capital Management, LLC$45.9 Mil17.9%16New13F
FIFTHDELTA Ltd$43.1 Mil5.9%11ADD +376.4%13F
Aegis Financial Corp$27.7 Mil4.8%37New13F
Core Cache Last Updated: 8/11/2026