Tearsheet

Harley-Davidson (HOG)

Market Price (12/5/2025): $23.75 | Market Cap: $2.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Motorcycle Manufacturers

Harley-Davidson (HOG)

Market Price (12/5/2025): $23.75
Market Cap: $2.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Motorcycle Manufacturers

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow

0	Attractive yield Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%, FCF Yield is 12%	Weak multi-year price returns 2Y Excs Rtn is -67%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -118%	Debt is significant Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 102%
1	Attractive cash flow generation CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%	Meaningful short interest Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%	Weak revenue growth Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -16%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.7%
2	Low stock price volatility Vol 12M is 43%
3	Megatrend and thematic drivers Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Luxury Consumer Goods.

0	Attractive yield Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%, FCF Yield is 12%
1	Attractive cash flow generation CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
2	Low stock price volatility Vol 12M is 43%
3	Megatrend and thematic drivers Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Luxury Consumer Goods.
4	Weak multi-year price returns 2Y Excs Rtn is -67%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -118%
5	Meaningful short interest Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%
6	Debt is significant Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 102%
7	Weak revenue growth Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -16%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.7%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

	12/5/25	2024	2023	2022	2021
Share Price CYE	$23.75	$29.53	$35.41	$39.24	$35.00
Market Cap CYE ($ Bil)	2.9	3.7	4.9	5.7	5.4
Total Debt ($ Bil)	5.2	7.0	7.2	7.0	6.9
Total Cash ($ Bil)	1.8	1.6	1.5	1.4	1.9
Enterprise Value ($ Bil)	6.3	10.7	12.1	12.7	12.3
Valuation Ratios
P/S TTM	0.7	0.8	0.9	1.1	1.1
P/EBIT TTM	5.1	7.2	5.8	6.4	6.8
P/E TTM	6.7	8.7	7.4	8.3	8.9
Sector Ratios
P/S TTM (Sector)	0.8	0.8	0.9	0.8	1.4
P/EBIT TTM (Sector)	7.6	8.0	7.8	6.3	8.3
P/E TTM (Sector)	10.4	11.1	10.7	8.4	10.8

	12/5/25	2024	2023
Share Price CYE	$23.75	$29.53	$35.41
Market Cap CYE ($ Bil)	2.9	3.7	4.9
Total Debt ($ Bil)	5.2	7.0	7.2
Total Cash ($ Bil)	1.8	1.6	1.5
Enterprise Value ($ Bil)	6.3	10.7	12.1
Valuation Ratios
P/S TTM	0.7	0.8	0.9
P/EBIT TTM	5.1	7.2	5.8
P/E TTM	6.7	8.7	7.4
Sector Ratios
P/S TTM (Sector)	0.8	0.8	0.9
P/EBIT TTM (Sector)	7.6	8.0	7.8
P/E TTM (Sector)	10.4	11.1	10.7

	HOG	S&P 500
REVENUE GROWTH	POOR
Rev LTM ($ Bil)	4.7
Rev Chg Q	16.5%	7.1%
Rev Chg LTM	-16.0%	6.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg	-5.7%	5.5%
PROFITABILITY	FAIR
Op Inc LTM ($ Bil)	0.6
CFO LTM ($ Bil)	0.6
Net Inc LTM ($ Bil)	0.5
Op Mgn LTM	11.9%	18.8%
CFO/Rev LTM	11.8%	20.5%
Net Inc Mgn	10.7%	13.1%
VALUATION	VERY LOW
P/S	0.7	3.2
P/CFO	6.1	15.8
P/FCF	8.6	20.5
P/E	6.7	23.5
STABILITY	FAIR
Debt/Equity	1.55	0.20
Cash/Assets	0.17	0.07

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Metric	Value	Date	Source
Worldwide Retail Sales of Harley-Davidson Motorcycles - Total	33984	9302025	Link
HDMC Worldwide Motorcycle Shipments - Total	36524	9302025	Link
Worldwide Retail Sales of Harley-Davidson Motorcycles - North America	23500	9302025	Link
Worldwide Retail Sales of Harley-Davidson Motorcycles - EMEA	5033	9302025	Link
Worldwide Retail Sales of Harley-Davidson Motorcycles - Asia Pacific	4667	9302025	Link
Market Share in U.S. Motorcycle, Bike & Parts Manufacturing	55.4%	1172025	Link
Market Share in Large Cruiser Category	68%	1142025	Link
Number of Authorized Dealerships Globally	over 1,400	1172025	Link
Number of Authorized Dealerships in the U.S.	over 650	612023	Link
LiveWire Electric Motorcycle Unit Sales	33	3312025	Link
Global Dealer Motorcycle Inventories Year-over-Year Change	-13%	9302025	Link

Upcoming
12/09/2025	Dividend	Amount: $0.18 Payment On: 12/22/2025
2/04/2026	Earnings Release	Rev: $484 Mil (E) EPS: $-0.92 (E)

HOG Stock

Return (1M):

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -20.9% change in HOG stock from 9/4/2025 to 12/4/2025 was primarily driven by a -62.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.

	9042025	12042025	Change
Stock Price ($)	30.01	23.73	-20.94%
Change Contribution By	LTM	LTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	4474.61	4664.63	4.25%
Net Income Margin (%)	5.43%	10.74%	97.98%
P/E Multiple	15.02	5.71	-61.98%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	121.52	120.61	0.75%
Cumulative Contribution			-20.94%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/4/2025 to 12/4/2025

	Return	Correlation
HOG	-20.9%
Market (SPY)	5.4%	34.4%
Sector (XLY)	-49.4%	21.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The -1.5% change in HOG stock from 6/5/2025 to 12/4/2025 was primarily driven by a -32.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.

	6052025	12042025	Change
Stock Price ($)	24.08	23.73	-1.45%
Change Contribution By	LTM	LTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	4786.41	4664.63	-2.54%
Net Income Margin (%)	7.39%	10.74%	45.46%
P/E Multiple	8.44	5.71	-32.35%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	123.95	120.61	2.69%
Cumulative Contribution			-1.52%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/5/2025 to 12/4/2025

	Return	Correlation
HOG	-1.5%
Market (SPY)	15.7%	32.9%
Sector (XLY)	-43.0%	19.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The -26.8% change in HOG stock from 12/4/2024 to 12/4/2025 was primarily driven by a -19.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.

	12042024	12042025	Change
Stock Price ($)	32.44	23.73	-26.85%
Change Contribution By	LTM	LTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	5552.40	4664.63	-15.99%
Net Income Margin (%)	10.77%	10.74%	-0.26%
P/E Multiple	7.06	5.71	-19.05%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	130.08	120.61	7.28%
Cumulative Contribution			-27.23%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/4/2024 to 12/4/2025

	Return	Correlation
HOG	-26.8%
Market (SPY)	13.7%	52.4%
Sector (XLY)	-47.0%	30.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The -46.1% change in HOG stock from 12/5/2022 to 12/4/2025 was primarily driven by a -36.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.

	12052022	12042025	Change
Stock Price ($)	44.00	23.73	-46.06%
Change Contribution By	LTM	LTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	5629.28	4664.63	-17.14%
Net Income Margin (%)	12.81%	10.74%	-16.13%
P/E Multiple	8.92	5.71	-35.98%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	146.22	120.61	17.51%
Cumulative Contribution			-47.72%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/5/2023 to 12/4/2025

	Return	Correlation
HOG	-19.2%
Market (SPY)	53.3%	45.2%
Sector (XLY)	-29.2%	28.4%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	Total [1]
Returns
HOG Return	0%	4%	12%	-10%	-17%	-20%	-29%
Peers Return	189%	58%	-34%	29%	21%	19%	456%
S&P 500 Return	16%	27%	-19%	24%	23%	17%	112%
Monthly Win Rates [3]
HOG Win Rate	50%	50%	42%	50%	50%	30%
Peers Win Rate	56%	65%	33%	52%	56%	55%
S&P 500 Win Rate	58%	75%	42%	67%	75%	70%
Max Drawdowns [4]
HOG Max Drawdown	-59%	-13%	-19%	-37%	-18%	-30%
Peers Max Drawdown	-46%	-10%	-45%	-19%	-20%	-26%
S&P 500 Max Drawdown	-31%	-1%	-25%	-1%	-2%	-15%

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TSLA, GM, F, HOG. See HOG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique Key	Event	HOG	S&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock	2022 Inflation Shock
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss	% Loss	-50.0%	-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven	% Gain to Breakeven	99.8%	34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to Breakeven	Time to Breakeven	Not Fully Recovered days	464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic	2020 Covid Pandemic
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss	% Loss	-59.6%	-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven	% Gain to Breakeven	147.3%	51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to Breakeven	Time to Breakeven	234 days	148 days
2018 Correction	2018 Correction
2018 Correction% Loss	% Loss	-51.7%	-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven	% Gain to Breakeven	107.1%	24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to Breakeven	Time to Breakeven	Not Fully Recovered days	120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis	2008 Global Financial Crisis
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss	% Loss	-88.9%	-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven	% Gain to Breakeven	800.6%	131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to Breakeven	Time to Breakeven	1882 days	1480 days

Compare to TSLA, GM, F, HOG

In The Past

Harley-Davidson's stock fell -50.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/2/2023. A -50.0% loss requires a 99.8% gain to breakeven.

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About Harley-Davidson (HOG)

Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles. The company operates in two segments, Motorcycles and Related Products and Financial Services. The Motorcycles and Related Products segment designs, manufactures, and sells Harley-Davidson motorcycles, including cruiser, touring, standard, sportbike, and dual models, as well as motorcycle parts, accessories, apparel, and related services. This segment sells its products to retail customers through a network of independent dealers, as well as e-commerce channels in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The Financial Services segment provides wholesale financing services, such as floorplan and open account financing of motorcycles, and parts and accessories; and retail financing services, including installment lending for the purchase of new and used Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as point-of-sale protection products comprising motorcycle insurance, extended service contracts, and motorcycle maintenance protection. This segment also licenses third-party financial institutions that issue credit cards bearing the Harley-Davidson brand. Harley-Davidson, Inc. was founded in 1903 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Harley-Davidson:

The Jeep of motorcycles.
The Porsche of motorcycles.
The Rolex of motorcycles.

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Motorcycles: Harley-Davidson designs, manufactures, and sells a wide range of premium motorcycles for various riding styles.
Parts & Accessories: The company offers genuine parts, accessories, and performance upgrades for its motorcycles, allowing for customization and maintenance.
General Merchandise: Harley-Davidson sells branded apparel, riding gear, merchandise, and collectibles, fostering its lifestyle brand.
Financial Services: Through Harley-Davidson Financial Services, the company provides wholesale and retail financing, as well as insurance programs, to dealers and customers.

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Company: Harley-Davidson (Symbol: HOG)

Harley-Davidson primarily sells its motorcycles, parts, accessories, and general merchandise to a global network of independent, authorized dealerships. These dealerships, in turn, sell the products to individual consumers. Therefore, while its immediate customers are other companies (the dealerships), the ultimate and primary target market for Harley-Davidson's products and brand efforts are individual riders.

Based on the individual end-users, Harley-Davidson serves the following customer categories:

Traditional & Loyalist Riders: This core demographic represents long-standing Harley-Davidson owners, often older, affluent, and deeply immersed in the brand's heritage and lifestyle. They value the classic cruiser aesthetic, the distinctive engine sound, and the camaraderie associated with the Harley-Davidson Owners Group (H.O.G.) and rallies. Their purchasing decisions are often driven by brand loyalty, tradition, and the emotional connection to the "Harley experience."
New & Younger Riders: This category encompasses individuals who are new to motorcycling or new to the Harley-Davidson brand. They may be attracted by more modern designs, different riding styles, or more accessible entry points into the brand. This segment is crucial for Harley-Davidson's future growth and diversification, seeking models that offer contemporary performance, technology, or urban utility (e.g., from the Sportster S, or Street models, and often seeking a different experience than traditional cruisers).
Adventure & Touring Riders: These customers prioritize comfort, capability, and performance for long-distance travel, touring, and adventure riding. They often seek motorcycles equipped for extended journeys, with features such as luggage capacity, navigation systems, and robust engines suitable for various terrains. Models like the Road Glide, Street Glide, and the Pan America are designed to cater specifically to the needs and preferences of this segment, appealing to those who value exploration and versatility on two wheels.

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Artie Starrs, President and CEO
Artie Starrs was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Harley-Davidson, effective October 1, 2025. Prior to joining Harley-Davidson, Mr. Starrs served as CEO of Topgolf International, a division of Topgolf Callaway Brands. During his tenure at Topgolf, he oversaw the rapid expansion of the company, leading to a significant increase in revenue and growth across Europe and Asia. Mr. Starrs' background includes extensive experience in managing large, global consumer brands, scaling venues, and driving digital innovation.

Jonathan Root, Chief Financial Officer and President, Commercial
Jonathan Root was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Harley-Davidson in June 2023. Effective January 27, 2025, his role expanded to Chief Financial Officer and President, Commercial, where he now oversees global commercial operations in addition to leading the finance organization. Mr. Root joined Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) in 2011 and previously served as Senior Vice President of HDFS, overseeing global operations, and as President of Eaglemark Savings Bank and Harley-Davidson Insurance. His career also includes various roles at Ally Financial, Inc., GMAC Financial Services, Inc., and General Motors, Inc.

Paul J. Krause, Chief Legal Officer, Chief Compliance Officer, and Secretary
Paul J. Krause has served as Harley-Davidson's Chief Legal Officer, Chief Compliance Officer, and Secretary since 2020. Before this, he held the positions of Interim Chief Legal Officer and Chief Compliance Officer from 2019 to 2020, and Assistant General Counsel and Senior Legal Counsel from 2018 to 2019 at Harley-Davidson. Earlier in his career, Mr. Krause was a Senior Counsel at ArcelorMittal USA LLC.

Jagdish Krishnan, Chief Digital & Operations Officer
Jagdish Krishnan holds the title of Chief Digital & Operations Officer at Harley-Davidson.

Luke Mansfield, Chief Commercial Officer
Luke Mansfield has served as the Chief Commercial Officer of Harley-Davidson Motor Company since 2024.

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The following are clear emerging threats for Harley-Davidson (HOG):

Accelerating shift towards electric motorcycles and personal mobility solutions: While Harley-Davidson has invested in its LiveWire electric motorcycle brand, the broader market is experiencing a significant and accelerating transition towards electric vehicles. Numerous competitors (e.g., Zero Motorcycles, Damon Motors, CAKE, etc.) are innovating and gaining market traction with electric motorcycles and other personal mobility solutions, which could erode Harley-Davidson's traditional market share and appeal, particularly among environmentally conscious or tech-savvy consumers. The increasing viability, performance, and charging infrastructure for electric alternatives pose a direct challenge to the internal combustion engine bikes that form the core of Harley-Davidson's current revenue.
Shifting demographic preferences away from traditional large cruisers: Younger generations are demonstrating a reduced interest in the heavy, expensive, and maintenance-intensive traditional cruiser motorcycles that constitute Harley-Davidson's iconic product line. Instead, emerging consumer preferences often lean towards lighter, more agile motorcycles (adventure, naked, sport-touring), alternative forms of urban and recreational personal mobility (e-bikes, scooters), or simply different leisure priorities altogether. This trend poses a significant long-term threat by limiting Harley-Davidson's ability to attract new riders and replenish its aging core demographic, potentially leading to a shrinking addressable market for its traditional offerings.

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Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) operates in several addressable markets related to motorcycles, parts, accessories, apparel, and financial services. The estimated market sizes for their main products and services are as follows:

Motorcycles:
- Global market size: The global motorcycle market was valued at approximately USD 71.92 billion in 2024.
- U.S. market size: The U.S. motorcycle market size was valued at USD 10.48 billion in 2024.
Motorcycle Parts & Accessories:
- Global market size: The global motorcycle parts and accessories market was valued at USD 157.47 billion in 2024.
- U.S. market size: The U.S. motorcycle, bike & parts market size was USD 6.8 billion in 2024.
Motorcycle Apparel:
- Global market size: The global motorcycle apparel market was valued at approximately USD 13.17 billion in 2024.
- North America market size: The North America motorcycle apparel market is expected to reach USD 29.5 billion in 2024.
Motorcycle Financial Services:
- North America market size: The North America motorcycle loan market is estimated to be around USD 24 billion in 2024.

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Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Harley-Davidson (HOG) over the next 2-3 years:

Expected Revenue Growth Drivers for Harley-Davidson (HOG)

Launch and Growth of New Products: Harley-Davidson is focusing on product innovation, including the launch of new Street Glide and Road Glide touring motorcycles, which have already contributed to growth in the U.S. Touring segment. The company also plans to introduce new 2026 models, including lower-priced and more accessible motorcycles like the upcoming Harley-Davidson Sprint, aiming to attract new customer segments and offset potential demand softness. Furthermore, expansion into Adventure Touring and within the Cruiser segment is anticipated to unlock untapped volume and margin. The continued development of its electric vehicle (EV) market foray with models like LiveWire also represents a significant growth opportunity.
Strategic Pricing and Broadening Customer Base: The company is implementing new pricing tiers and experimenting with psychological pricing strategies to enhance affordability and attract younger and new riders. This, coupled with efforts to broaden its customer view to include non-riders and tailor the customer journey through enhanced digital touchpoints, is expected to expand its overall customer base.
Strengthening Dealer Network and Brand Engagement: Harley-Davidson is intensifying its focus on fostering strong and profitable dealerships, which are seen as fundamental to the company's success. By prioritizing local marketing and enhancing the powerful connection riders have with its iconic brand, Harley-Davidson aims to drive retail sales and sustainable growth.
Capital-Light HDFS Business Model: The transformation of Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) into a capital-light, de-risked business model through a strategic transaction with KKR and PIMCO is expected to unlock approximately $1.2 billion to $1.25 billion in discretionary cash by the end of the first quarter of 2026. While not a direct motorcycle sales driver, this significant financial flexibility allows for strategic investments in product development, marketing, and other growth initiatives that can ultimately fuel revenue expansion.
Cost Productivity Initiatives: Harley-Davidson is pursuing multi-year cost productivity initiatives, having achieved approximately $257 million in savings from 2022 to 2024, with an additional $75 million in the first nine months of 2025. These efforts, primarily in logistics and the supply chain, are projected to yield annual productivity savings of $100 million in both 2025 and 2026. Improved operational efficiency and a lean cost structure can enhance profitability and provide resources for revenue-generating activities.

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Share Repurchases

Harley-Davidson announced a new plan in July 2024 to repurchase $1 billion of its outstanding common stock through 2026.
The company has completed $875 million in share repurchases since 2022, including $450 million in 2024 alone.
Harley-Davidson reduced its share count by 25% over the 2022-2024 period, returning over $1.4 billion to shareholders through repurchases and dividends.

Share Issuance

In October 2025, Harley-Davidson issued 9.8% of its Class A Common Stock to KKR and PIMCO as part of a transaction involving the sale of motorcycle promissory notes and security agreements, which totaled $4.06 billion.

Inbound Investments

Harley-Davidson entered a strategic partnership with KKR and PIMCO for Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS), which is anticipated to unlock $1.2 billion to $1.25 billion in discretionary cash by early 2026.
In August 2025, the company sold 95% of its residual interests in securitized consumer loan receivables to investment vehicles managed by KKR and PIMCO, generating over $230 million in proceeds.
On October 31, 2025, Harley-Davidson Credit Corp. completed the sale of a portion of its motorcycle promissory notes and security agreements portfolio to KKR and PIMCO for $4.06 billion.

Outbound Investments

Harley-Davidson holds a controlling interest in its electric vehicle brand, LiveWire Group.
While the company provided an existing $100 million credit line to LiveWire in Q1 2024, it stated in Q1 2025 that it would not make additional investments beyond this, as LiveWire focuses on seeking external capital and reducing cash burn.

Capital Expenditures

Capital expenditures for Harley-Davidson averaged $161.4 million annually from fiscal years 2020 to 2024, reaching a peak of $207.4 million in 2023.
For 2025, the company has an outlook for capital investments ranging from $225 million to $250 million.
The primary focus of these capital expenditures includes product development for electric vehicles (LiveWire) and more affordable models, along with enhancing digital capabilities and strengthening the dealer network.

Interactive Breakdown

Harley-Davidson Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Better Bets than Harley-Davidson (HOG)

	HOG	Better Performance than HOG
Metric	Value	INDUSTRY: Motorcycle Manufacturers
Rev Chg LTM	-16.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg	-5.7%
Op Mgn LTM	11.9%
CFO/Rev LTM	11.8%
FCF/Rev LTM	8.4%
Total Yield	17.5%
P/S	0.7
P/Op Inc	6.1

	HOG	Better Performance than HOG
Metric	Value	SECTOR: Consumer Discretionary
Rev Chg LTM	-16.0%	AMZN (10.9%), HD (8.5%), TJX (4.1%), MCD (1.2%), TSLA (-1.6%)
Rev Chg 3Y Avg	-5.7%	AMZN (11.3%), TSLA (9.3%), TJX (5.3%), MCD (4.2%), HD (2.2%)
Op Mgn LTM	11.9%	MCD (46.1%), BKNG (34.5%), HD (13.1%), LOW (12.4%), MELI (12.0%)
CFO/Rev LTM	11.8%	MCD (39.9%), MELI (37.5%), BKNG (33.2%), AMZN (18.1%), TSLA (16.5%)
FCF/Rev LTM	8.4%	MELI (32.9%), BKNG (31.9%), MCD (28.1%), LOW (9.2%), HD (8.6%)
Total Yield	17.5%	KSS (36.5%), BRSL (31.9%), BYD (27.0%), M (21.8%), BKE (17.6%)
P/S	0.7	F (0.3), GM (0.3), MGA (0.3), BBY (0.3), PAG (0.4)
P/Op Inc	6.1	M (3.7), CROX (4.6), LAD (5.1), TMHC (5.3), GPI (5.7)

	HOG	Better Performance than HOG
Metric	Value	ALL OTHER SECTORS
Rev Chg LTM	-16.0%	NVDA (71.6%), AVGO (28.0%), MSFT (15.6%), GOOGL (13.4%), AAPL (6.0%)
Rev Chg 3Y Avg	-5.7%	NVDA (92.0%), AVGO (24.0%), MSFT (13.2%), GOOGL (11.0%), AAPL (1.8%)
Op Mgn LTM	11.9%	NVDA (58.1%), MSFT (46.3%), AVGO (39.0%), GOOGL (32.2%), AAPL (31.9%)
CFO/Rev LTM	11.8%	MSFT (50.0%), NVDA (46.6%), AVGO (42.4%), GOOGL (39.3%), AAPL (26.6%)
FCF/Rev LTM	8.4%	NVDA (43.6%), AVGO (41.6%), MSFT (26.6%), AAPL (23.5%), GOOGL (19.1%)
Total Yield	17.5%	FMCC (29.4%), CMCSA (23.8%), FNMA (21.2%), EIX (20.9%), ACGL (17.8%)
P/S	0.7	CVS (0.2), MCK (0.2), CI (0.3), ELV (0.4), UNH (0.7)
P/Op Inc	6.1	IBKR (3.6), CMCSA (5.2), VZ (5.9), UAL (6.0), DAL (6.1)

		Best Bets In Consumer Discretionary Sector
	HOG	ABNB	BKNG	MCD	ETSY	LOPE	ALSN	GRMN	CROX	WH	YUM
What You Pay
P/E	6.7	28.2	34.7	25.7	36.2	28.8	10.2	30.2	19.7	18.1	29.2
P/EBIT	5.1	27.4	20.8	17.7	15.9	19.2	7.5	26.7	17.2	10.6	16.9
What You Get
Rev Chg Q	16.5%	9.7%	12.7%	3.0%	2.4%	9.6%	-15.9%	11.7%	3.4%	-3.5%	8.4%
Rev Chg LTM	-16.0%	10.2%	13.0%	1.2%	2.0%	7.0%	-4.2%	16.6%	2.0%	3.4%	11.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg	-5.7%	14.2%	17.8%	4.2%	4.9%	6.5%	4.6%	12.2%	14.5%	-2.5%	6.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg	10.1%	40.2%	35.6%	27.4%	23.8%	21.8%	21.0%	20.5%	19.8%	19.0%	18.9%

[1] Choosing top 10 best bets from each sector quarterly is an alpha producing strategy vs sector benchmark
[2] Historical annualized return of 14%, alpha of 2.9%, and sharpe of 0.61

Latest Trefis Analyses

	Title	Topic	Date
0	DASHBOARDS
1	Harley-Davidson Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go?	Return
2	HOG's 13% Single Week Rise Brings Valuations Into Focus - Is TMUS a Better Deal?	Counter-Intuitive Comparisons
3	null
4	Better Bet Than HOG Stock: Pay Less Than Harley-Davidson To Get More From UNH, HCA
5	Better Bet Than HOG Stock: Pay Less Than Harley-Davidson To Get More From CCL, LULU
6	Why Harley-Davidson Stock Moved: HOG Stock Has Lost 38% Since 2022 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Unfavorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S)
7	HOG Dip Buy Analysis
8	Harley-Davidson Total Shareholder Return (TSR): -13.8% in 2024 and -3.1% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average)
9	Harley-Davidson (HOG) Operating Cash Flow Comparison	Financials
10	Harley-Davidson (HOG) Net Income Comparison	Financials
11	ARTICLES
12	How Will Harley-Davidson Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?		July 25th, 2025
13	How Will Harley-Davidson Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?		April 17th, 2025
14	Can Harley Stock Bounce Back Despite Tough Earnings?		October 31st, 2024
15	Can Harley Stock Bounce Back To $50 Following Rate Cuts		September 19th, 2024
16	Can Harley Stock Recover To $50 On Strong Touring Motorcycle Sales?		July 3rd, 2024

	Title
0	DASHBOARDS
1	Harley-Davidson Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go?
2	HOG's 13% Single Week Rise Brings Valuations Into Focus - Is TMUS a Better Deal?
3	null
4	Better Bet Than HOG Stock: Pay Less Than Harley-Davidson To Get More From UNH, HCA
5	Better Bet Than HOG Stock: Pay Less Than Harley-Davidson To Get More From CCL, LULU
6	Why Harley-Davidson Stock Moved: HOG Stock Has Lost 38% Since 2022 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Unfavorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S)
7	HOG Dip Buy Analysis
8	Harley-Davidson Total Shareholder Return (TSR): -13.8% in 2024 and -3.1% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average)
9	Harley-Davidson (HOG) Operating Cash Flow Comparison
10	Harley-Davidson (HOG) Net Income Comparison
11	ARTICLES
12	How Will Harley-Davidson Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
13	How Will Harley-Davidson Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
14	Can Harley Stock Bounce Back Despite Tough Earnings?
15	Can Harley Stock Bounce Back To $50 Following Rate Cuts
16	Can Harley Stock Recover To $50 On Strong Touring Motorcycle Sales?

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to HOG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique Key	Date	Ticker	Company	Category	Trade Strategy	6M Fwd Rtn	12M Fwd Rtn	12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE	11302025	BBWI	Bath & Body Works	Dip Buy	DB \| Insider Buys \| Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap	9.2%	9.2%	0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	11262025	HRB	H&R Block	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	2.4%	2.4%	0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	11262025	LRN	Stride	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	-4.1%	-4.1%	-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	11212025	ABNB	Airbnb	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	5.1%	5.1%	0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	11212025	MTN	Vail Resorts	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	2.8%	2.8%	-1.6%
HOG_6302020_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy	06302020	HOG	Harley-Davidson	Dip Buy	DB \| P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin	53.6%	94.4%	-4.1%
HOG_12312018_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy	12312018	HOG	Harley-Davidson	Dip Buy	DB \| P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin	6.8%	13.6%	-9.0%

Unique Key	Date	Ticker	Company	Category	Trade Strategy	6M Fwd Rtn	12M Fwd Rtn	12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE	11302025	BBWI	Bath & Body Works	Dip Buy	DB \| Insider Buys \| Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap	9.2%	9.2%	0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	11262025	HRB	H&R Block	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	2.4%	2.4%	0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	11262025	LRN	Stride	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	-4.1%	-4.1%	-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	11212025	ABNB	Airbnb	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	5.1%	5.1%	0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	11212025	MTN	Vail Resorts	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	2.8%	2.8%	-1.6%
HOG_6302020_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy	06302020	HOG	Harley-Davidson	Dip Buy	DB \| P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin	53.6%	94.4%	-4.1%
HOG_12312018_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy	12312018	HOG	Harley-Davidson	Dip Buy	DB \| P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin	6.8%	13.6%	-9.0%

Recent Active Movers

1 Day Top Gainers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1D Rtn	YTD Rtn
USAR	USA Rare Earth	1.8	24.7%	58557.7%
PATH	UiPath	9.9	24.4%	45.4%
ASTS	AST SpaceMobile	17.6	18.2%	244.3%
FLNC	Fluence Energy	3.1	17.6%	47.0%
SAIC	Science Applications International	4.8	16.3%	-7.7%
AEVA	Aeva Technologies	0.9	16.0%	234.3%
AXGN	Axogen	1.5	16.0%	99.4%
SANA	Sana Biotechnology	1.3	15.9%	217.8%
OKLO	Oklo	15.6	15.6%	425.9%
RGTI	Rigetti Computing	9.0	15.4%	97.0%

1 Day Top Losers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1D Rtn	YTD Rtn
HOV	Hovnanian Enterprises	0.7	-22.5%	-22.4%
SYM	Symbotic	6.6	-17.4%	155.1%
BBW	Build-A-Bear Workshop	0.6	-15.5%	7.1%
DJCO	Daily Journal	0.6	-11.9%	-22.5%
PVH	PVH	3.7	-11.9%	-26.9%
SNOW	Snowflake	78.7	-11.4%	52.0%
QURE	uniQure	1.2	-10.8%	28.8%
MBX	MBX Biosciences	1.0	-10.0%	65.7%
WLY	John Wiley & Sons	1.8	-8.6%	-18.7%
LUMN	Lumen Technologies	8.7	-8.3%	65.3%

1 Week Top Gainers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1W Rtn	YTD Rtn
TLRY	Tilray Brands	7.7	601.0%	-45.7%
HPP	Hudson Pacific Properties	6.1	591.8%	-36.1%
AEVA	Aeva Technologies	0.9	50.8%	234.3%
MPLT	MapLight Therapeutics	0.8	41.2%
USAR	USA Rare Earth	1.8	40.6%	58557.7%
PATH	UiPath	9.9	36.0%	45.4%
EVEX	Eve	1.6	34.4%	-7.4%
TMC	TMC The Metals	2.9	33.8%	596.4%
TE	T1 Energy	0.8	33.1%
INDI	Indie Semiconductor	0.9	32.1%	13.8%

1 Week Top Losers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1W Rtn	YTD Rtn
JANX	Janux Therapeutics	1.0	-52.7%	-69.4%
CTEV	Claritev	0.6	-32.7%
SYM	Symbotic	6.6	-30.7%	155.1%
FULC	Fulcrum Therapeutics	0.5	-22.6%	86.4%
HOV	Hovnanian Enterprises	0.7	-22.0%	-22.4%
VTYX	Ventyx Biosciences	0.6	-19.9%	265.3%
SIG	Signet Jewelers	3.5	-17.8%	7.2%
CMCL	Caledonia Mining	0.5	-17.8%	175.7%
QURE	uniQure	1.2	-17.7%	28.8%
URGN	UroGen Pharma	1.2	-17.5%	128.0%

1 Month Top Gainers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1M Rtn	YTD Rtn
LXP	LXP Industrial Trust	2.8	406.1%	25.7%
OLMA	Olema Pharmaceuticals	2.4	237.1%	374.1%
COGT	Cogent Biosciences	5.4	178.2%	404.0%
CDTX	Cidara Therapeutics	5.9	119.6%	720.3%
SGML	Sigma Lithium	1.1	113.2%	-11.1%
IRWD	Ironwood Pharmaceuticals	0.6	99.5%	-15.8%
ALMS	Alumis	0.6	82.4%	5.6%
NPCE	NeuroPace	0.6	80.5%	51.7%
BW	Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises	0.7	80.5%	311.6%
CBLL	CeriBell	0.7	75.4%	-26.0%

1 Month Top Losers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1M Rtn	YTD Rtn
CCOI	Cogent Communications	0.9	-53.0%	-74.0%
UP	Wheels Up Experience	0.5	-48.0%	-60.0%
TLRY	Tilray Brands	7.7	-41.8%	-45.7%
AMSC	American Superconductor	1.4	-41.4%	34.0%
CTEV	Claritev	0.6	-41.2%
BTDR	Bitdeer Technologies	2.5	-40.7%	-41.6%
FRMI	Fermi	11.1	-40.2%
JANX	Janux Therapeutics	1.0	-39.3%	-69.4%
ARDT	Ardent Health	1.2	-39.1%	-48.1%
SMR	NuScale Power	3.4	-35.9%	27.4%

Recent Active Movers

1 Day Top Gainers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1D Rtn	YTD Rtn
USAR	USA Rare Earth	1.8	24.7%	58557.7%
PATH	UiPath	9.9	24.4%	45.4%
ASTS	AST SpaceMobile	17.6	18.2%	244.3%
FLNC	Fluence Energy	3.1	17.6%	47.0%
SAIC	Science Applications International	4.8	16.3%	-7.7%
AEVA	Aeva Technologies	0.9	16.0%	234.3%
AXGN	Axogen	1.5	16.0%	99.4%
SANA	Sana Biotechnology	1.3	15.9%	217.8%
OKLO	Oklo	15.6	15.6%	425.9%
RGTI	Rigetti Computing	9.0	15.4%	97.0%

1 Day Top Losers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1D Rtn	YTD Rtn
HOV	Hovnanian Enterprises	0.7	-22.5%	-22.4%
SYM	Symbotic	6.6	-17.4%	155.1%
BBW	Build-A-Bear Workshop	0.6	-15.5%	7.1%
DJCO	Daily Journal	0.6	-11.9%	-22.5%
PVH	PVH	3.7	-11.9%	-26.9%
SNOW	Snowflake	78.7	-11.4%	52.0%
QURE	uniQure	1.2	-10.8%	28.8%
MBX	MBX Biosciences	1.0	-10.0%	65.7%
WLY	John Wiley & Sons	1.8	-8.6%	-18.7%
LUMN	Lumen Technologies	8.7	-8.3%	65.3%

1 Week Top Gainers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1W Rtn	YTD Rtn
TLRY	Tilray Brands	7.7	601.0%	-45.7%
HPP	Hudson Pacific Properties	6.1	591.8%	-36.1%
AEVA	Aeva Technologies	0.9	50.8%	234.3%
MPLT	MapLight Therapeutics	0.8	41.2%
USAR	USA Rare Earth	1.8	40.6%	58557.7%
PATH	UiPath	9.9	36.0%	45.4%
EVEX	Eve	1.6	34.4%	-7.4%
TMC	TMC The Metals	2.9	33.8%	596.4%
TE	T1 Energy	0.8	33.1%
INDI	Indie Semiconductor	0.9	32.1%	13.8%

1 Week Top Losers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1W Rtn	YTD Rtn
JANX	Janux Therapeutics	1.0	-52.7%	-69.4%
CTEV	Claritev	0.6	-32.7%
SYM	Symbotic	6.6	-30.7%	155.1%
FULC	Fulcrum Therapeutics	0.5	-22.6%	86.4%
HOV	Hovnanian Enterprises	0.7	-22.0%	-22.4%
VTYX	Ventyx Biosciences	0.6	-19.9%	265.3%
SIG	Signet Jewelers	3.5	-17.8%	7.2%
CMCL	Caledonia Mining	0.5	-17.8%	175.7%
QURE	uniQure	1.2	-17.7%	28.8%
URGN	UroGen Pharma	1.2	-17.5%	128.0%

Peer Comparisons for Harley-Davidson

Peers to compare with:

Financials

	HOG	TSLA	GM	F	Median
Name	Harley-D.	Tesla	General .	Ford Mot.
Mkt Price	23.73	454.53	75.14	13.14	49.44
Mkt Cap	2.9	1,466.8	70.9	52.3	61.6
Rev LTM	4,665	95,633	187,435	189,588	141,534
Op Inc LTM	554	4,868	8,078	3,619	4,244
FCF LTM	392	6,834	-1,749	11,897	3,613
FCF 3Y Avg	546	4,719	-2,949	7,967	2,632
CFO LTM	550	15,748	24,212	20,426	18,087
CFO 3Y Avg	736	14,130	22,252	16,306	15,218

Growth & Margins

	HOG	TSLA	GM	F	Median
Name	Harley-D.	Tesla	General .	Ford Mot.
Rev Chg LTM	-16.0%	-1.6%	2.6%	3.7%	0.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg	-5.7%	9.3%	8.6%	7.8%	8.2%
Rev Chg Q	16.5%	11.6%	-0.3%	9.4%	10.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM	4.2%	3.1%	-0.1%	2.3%	2.7%
Op Mgn LTM	11.9%	5.1%	4.3%	1.9%	4.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg	12.0%	8.3%	5.8%	2.7%	7.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM	7.7%	-1.1%	-1.4%	0.3%	-0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM	11.8%	16.5%	12.9%	10.8%	12.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg	13.6%	14.7%	12.3%	8.9%	13.0%
FCF/Rev LTM	8.4%	7.1%	-0.9%	6.3%	6.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg	10.1%	4.9%	-1.6%	4.3%	4.6%

Valuation

	HOG	TSLA	GM	F	Median
Name	Harley-D.	Tesla	General .	Ford Mot.
Mkt Cap	2.9	1,466.8	70.9	52.3	61.6
P/S	0.7	15.0	0.3	0.3	0.5
P/EBIT	5.1	205.9	10.3	7.3	8.8
P/E	6.7	282.6	18.9	10.1	14.5
P/CFO	6.1	91.1	2.4	2.3	4.2
Total Yield	17.5%	0.4%	6.4%	13.6%	10.0%
Dividend Yield	2.6%	0.0%	1.1%	3.8%	1.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg	12.4%	0.5%	-5.8%	17.2%	6.4%
D/E	1.5	0.0	2.3	3.5	1.9
Net D/E	1.0	-0.0	1.8	2.6	1.4

Returns

	HOG	TSLA	GM	F	Median
Name	Harley-D.	Tesla	General .	Ford Mot.
1M Rtn	-6.4%	2.3%	12.4%	2.7%	2.5%
3M Rtn	-20.9%	34.3%	29.2%	13.8%	21.5%
6M Rtn	-1.5%	59.7%	59.9%	33.4%	46.5%
12M Rtn	-26.8%	27.0%	42.3%	31.4%	29.2%
3Y Rtn	-46.1%	149.1%	99.5%	24.6%	62.0%
1M Excs Rtn	-7.7%	1.0%	11.1%	1.5%	1.3%
3M Excs Rtn	-26.8%	23.8%	23.2%	7.4%	15.3%
6M Excs Rtn	-16.9%	44.2%	44.5%	17.9%	31.1%
12M Excs Rtn	-41.9%	13.9%	24.6%	15.1%	14.5%
3Y Excs Rtn	-118.4%	78.1%	21.8%	-52.0%	-15.1%

Financials

Annual
Quarterly

$ Mil \| FY: 12/31	LTM	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Period End	9/30/2025	12/31/2024	12/31/2023	12/31/2022	12/31/2021	12/31/2020	12/31/2019
Filing Date	11/5/2025	2/26/2025	2/23/2024	2/24/2023	2/25/2022	2/23/2021	2/19/2020
Key Financials
Total Revenue	4,665	5,187	5,836	5,755	5,336	4,054	5,362
EBITDA	830	709	1,056	1,114	1,015	201	821
Operating Income	554	417	779	909	823	140	588
Net Income	501	455	707	741	650	1	424
EPS	4.16	3.46	4.96	5.01	4.23	0.01	2.70
Growth Rates
Total Revenue Growth	-16.0%	-11.1%	1.4%	7.8%	31.6%	-24.4%	-6.2%
EBITDA Growth	-6.5%	-32.9%	-5.3%	9.8%	404.9%	-75.5%	-16.4%
Operating Income Growth	-5.9%	-46.5%	-14.3%	10.4%	489.5%	-76.2%	-27.1%
Net Income Growth	-16.2%	-35.6%	-4.7%	14.1%	49978.9%	-99.7%	-20.3%
Margins
EBITDA Margin	17.8%	13.7%	18.1%	19.4%	19.0%	5.0%	15.3%
Operating Income Margin	11.9%	8.0%	13.3%	15.8%	15.4%	3.4%	11.0%
Net Income Margin	10.7%	8.8%	12.1%	12.9%	12.2%	0.0%	7.9%
Cash & Debt
Total Cash	1,775	1,590	1,534	1,433	1,875	3,257	834
Total Debt	5,214	7,026	7,196	6,955	6,937	9,034	7,508
Net Debt / (Cash)	3,439	5,437	5,662	5,522	5,062	5,777	6,675
Cash Flows
Net Cash from Operations	550	1,064	755	548	976	1,178	868
Free Cash from Operations	392	867	547	397	856	1,047	687
Returns to Shareholders
Dividends	88	91	96	93	92	68	237
Share Repurchases	293	460	364	339	12	8	297

$ Mil \| FY: 12/31	2025Q3	2025Q2	2025Q1	2024Q4	2024Q3	2024Q2	2024Q1	2023Q4	2023Q3	2023Q2	2023Q1	2022Q4
Period End	9/30/2025	6/30/2025	3/31/2025	12/31/2024	9/30/2024	6/30/2024	3/31/2024	12/31/2023	9/30/2023	6/30/2023	3/31/2023	12/31/2022
Filing Date	11/5/2025	8/6/2025	5/6/2025	2/26/2025	11/6/2024	8/7/2024	5/6/2024	2/23/2024	11/8/2023	8/9/2023	5/10/2023	2/24/2023
Key Financials Quarterly
Total Revenue	1,341	1,307	1,329	688	1,151	1,619	1,730	1,053	1,549	1,446	1,789	1,142
Ebitda	546	178	227	-122	180	311	340	58	286	278	434	67
Operating Income	475	112	160	-193	106	241	263	-21	209	221	370	4
Net Income	377	108	133	-117	119	218	235	26	199	178	304	42
EPS	3.13	0.89	1.07	-0.93	0.92	1.64	1.73	0.19	1.40	1.24	2.08	0.29
Key Financials TTM
Total Revenue TTM	4,665	4,475	4,786	5,187	5,552	5,951	5,777	5,836	5,926	6,025	6,049	5,755
Ebitda TTM	830	464	596	709	888	994	961	1,056	1,065	1,166	1,211	1,114
Operating Income TTM	554	185	314	417	589	692	673	779	804	934	990	909
Net Income TTM	501	243	354	455	598	678	637	707	723	785	823	741
Growth Rates Quarterly
Total Revenue Growth	16.5%	-19.3%	-23.1%	-34.7%	-25.7%	12.0%	-3.3%	-7.8%	-6.0%	-1.6%	19.6%	12.4%
EBITDA Growth	203.6%	-42.6%	-33.0%	-310.3%	-37.2%	11.9%	-21.8%	-14.2%	-26.1%	-13.9%	28.6%	20.2%
Operating Income Growth	348.7%	-53.4%	-39.0%	-814.3%	-49.4%	8.9%	-28.8%	-615.6%	-38.2%	-20.2%	27.8%	148.4%
Net Income Growth	217.0%	-50.7%	-43.3%	-552.9%	-40.1%	22.6%	-22.7%	-38.4%	-23.9%	-17.5%	36.7%	94.1%
Margins Quarterly
EBITDA Margin	40.7%	13.6%	17.1%	-17.7%	15.6%	19.2%	19.6%	5.5%	18.5%	19.2%	24.3%	5.9%
Operating Income Margin	35.4%	8.6%	12.1%	-28.1%	9.2%	14.9%	15.2%	-2.0%	13.5%	15.3%	20.7%	0.4%
Net Income Margin	28.1%	8.2%	10.0%	-17.0%	10.3%	13.5%	13.6%	2.5%	12.8%	12.3%	17.0%	3.7%
Cash & Debt
Total Cash	1,775	1,588	1,931	1,590	2,244	1,849	1,465	1,534	1,878	1,522	1,561	1,433
Total Debt	5,214	6,911	7,349	7,026	7,850	7,514	7,258	7,196	7,362	7,121	7,212	6,955
Net Debt / (Cash)	3,439	5,323	5,418	5,437	5,606	5,665	5,793	5,662	5,483	5,599	5,651	5,522
Cash Flows Quarterly
FCF from Operations	-93	368	142	133	353	474	104	48	296	364	47	-26
Cash Flows TTM
FCF from Operations TTM	550	996	1,101	1,064	979	922	812	755	681	715	456	548
Returns to Shareholders Quarterly
Dividends	22	22	23	22	22	23	24	24	25	24	24	23
Share Repurchases	100	0	93	100	150	102	108	125	70	73	97	0
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) Quarterly
ROIC	42.1%	6.9%	8.7%	-9.9%	6.6%	13.9%	14.5%	-1.5%	12.6%	11.8%	20.1%	0.3%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) TTM
ROIC TTM	12.6%	3.0%	4.9%	6.6%	8.9%	10.2%	9.5%	11.0%	11.8%	13.1%	13.9%	13.1%

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS)	8,200	79,000	7,743
Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC)	3,600	33,000	3,246
LiveWire	300	3,514	62
Financial Services				9,518	7,980
Motorcycles and Related Products				2,493	2,548
Total	12,100	115,514	11,051	12,011	10,528

Price Behavior

Price Behavior

Market Price	$23.73
Market Cap ($ Bil)	2.9
First Trading Date	11/05/1987
Distance from 52W High	-27.5%
	50 Days	200 Days
DMA Price	$26.01	$25.30
DMA Trend	down	down
Distance from DMA	-8.8%	-6.2%
	3M	1YR
Volatility	34.3%	43.4%
Downside Capture	140.78	126.08
Upside Capture	-8.01	79.29
Correlation (SPY)	35.5%	52.3%

HOG Betas & Captures as of 11/30/2025

	1M	2M	3M	6M	1Y	3Y
Beta	1.63	0.93	0.97	1.26	1.15	1.15
Up Beta	0.84	0.53	1.06	1.30	1.33	1.30
Down Beta	1.51	1.65	1.39	1.73	1.06	0.92
Up Capture	107%	14%	14%	85%	71%	79%
Bmk +ve Days	13	26	39	74	142	427
Stock +ve Days	10	21	32	65	123	356
Down Capture	220%	116%	124%	123%	114%	107%
Bmk -ve Days	7	16	24	52	107	323
Stock -ve Days	10	21	31	61	126	391

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively

1Y 5Y 10Y

Based On 1-Year Data

		Comparison of HOG With Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y)
	HOG	Sector ETF	Equity	Gold	Commodities	Real Estate	Bitcoin
Annualized Return	-27.6%	-46.1%	14.6%	57.6%	4.7%	-5.6%	-3.5%
Annualized Volatility	43.2%	55.9%	19.6%	19.4%	15.9%	17.8%	35.7%
Sharpe Ratio	-0.63	-0.77	0.57	2.22	0.10	-0.47	0.03
Correlation With Other Assets		30.0%	52.3%	-5.2%	20.7%	49.8%	27.5%

ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLY, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
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Based On 5-Year Data

		Comparison of HOG With Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y)
	HOG	Sector ETF	Equity	Gold	Commodities	Real Estate	Bitcoin
Annualized Return	-8.7%	-4.8%	15.1%	18.0%	11.7%	4.8%	40.5%
Annualized Volatility	41.2%	32.7%	17.1%	15.5%	18.8%	19.0%	49.0%
Sharpe Ratio	-0.09	-0.04	0.71	0.93	0.51	0.17	0.68
Correlation With Other Assets		37.7%	48.9%	1.5%	11.1%	44.3%	19.2%

Based On 10-Year Data

		Comparison of HOG With Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y)
	HOG	Sector ETF	Equity	Gold	Commodities	Real Estate	Bitcoin
Annualized Return	-4.8%	5.0%	14.5%	14.2%	5.7%	5.3%	76.1%
Annualized Volatility	42.6%	27.1%	18.0%	14.8%	17.7%	20.9%	55.9%
Sharpe Ratio	0.03	0.24	0.69	0.79	0.25	0.23	0.94
Correlation With Other Assets		45.0%	55.3%	-0.0%	19.8%	47.5%	15.5%

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date	11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity	16,800,488
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025	35.7%
Average Daily Volume	2,308,563
Days-to-Cover Short Interest	7.28
Basic Shares Quantity	120,614,000
Short % of Basic Shares	13.9%

Returns Analyses

	Title
0	Harley-Davidson Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go?
1	Harley-Davidson During 2008 Recession vs. 2022 Inflation Shock: HOG Stock Has 101% Upside If It Recovers To Pre-Inflation Shock Levels
2	Harley-Davidson Stock Return Comparison
3	[9/30/2021] Harley-Davidson (HOG) Stock Price Forecast: AI Forecasts HOG Stock Price To Be Around $37.9 In A Month (Up 3.5%)
4	Harley-Davidson Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 12.0% in 2022 and 5.3% 3-yr returns (above peer average)
5	Harley-Davidson (HOG) Stock Return: AI Predicts HOG Average and Excess Return After a Fall or Rise

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report Date	Filing Date	Filing
9302025	11052025	10-Q 9/30/2025
6302025	8062025	10-Q 6/30/2025
3312025	5062025	10-Q 3/31/2025
12312024	2262025	10-K 12/31/2024
9302024	11062024	10-Q 9/30/2024
6302024	8072024	10-Q 6/30/2024
3312024	5062024	10-Q 3/31/2024
12312023	2232024	10-K 12/31/2023
9302023	11082023	10-Q 9/30/2023
6302023	8092023	10-Q 6/30/2023
3312023	5102023	10-Q 3/31/2023
12312022	2242023	10-K 12/31/2022
9302022	11032022	10-Q 9/25/2022
6302022	8042022	10-Q 6/26/2022
3312022	5052022	10-Q 3/27/2022
12312021	2252022	10-K 12/31/2021

External Quote Links

0	Y Finance	Barrons
1	TradingView	Morningstar
2	SeekingAlpha	ValueLine
3	Motley Fool	Robinhood
4	CNBC	Etrade
5	MarketWatch	Unusual Whales
6	YCharts	Perplexity Finance
7	FinViz

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Harley-Davidson (HOG)

Market Price (12/5/2025): $23.75 | Market Cap: $2.9 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Motorcycle Manufacturers

Harley-Davidson (HOG)

Market Price (12/5/2025): $23.75Market Cap: $2.9 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Motorcycle Manufacturers

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Market Price (12/5/2025): $23.75 | Market Cap: $2.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Motorcycle Manufacturers

Market Price (12/5/2025): $23.75
Market Cap: $2.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Motorcycle Manufacturers