CSX (CSX)
Market Price (12/28/2025): $36.625 | Market Cap: $68.3 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Rail Transportation
CSX (CSX)
Market Price (12/28/2025): $36.625Market Cap: $68.3 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Rail Transportation
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.3% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.1%, Dist 3Y High is -2.1% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.9% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 34% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -37%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -57% | Key risksCSX key risks include [1] declining revenue from lower export coal and merchandise volumes and [2] operational disruptions from aging infrastructure and challenges maintaining train velocity and terminal dwell times. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 4.6 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, Automation & Robotics, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.3% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 34% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 4.6 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, Automation & Robotics, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.1%, Dist 3Y High is -2.1% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -37%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -57% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.9% |
| Key risksCSX key risks include [1] declining revenue from lower export coal and merchandise volumes and [2] operational disruptions from aging infrastructure and challenges maintaining train velocity and terminal dwell times. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
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The CSX stock experienced a 13.56% increase over the past 12 months, as of December 23, 2025. The stock's price also increased by 5.59% in the past month and 6.40% over the past 30 days.
Here are some key points that contributed to the stock's movement:
<b>1. Leadership Changes and Merger Speculation:</b> CSX experienced a significant leadership change in September 2025, with Joe Hinrichs being replaced by Steve Angel as CEO. This change fueled speculation about potential mergers involving CSX and other major U.S. railroads, especially given Angel's strong track record in integrating companies during his previous role at Linde plc. While Hinrichs was against industry consolidation, Angel indicated a willingness to pursue opportunities that create compelling shareholder value.
<b>2. Positive Analyst Ratings and Price Targets:</b> Throughout 2025, Wall Street analysts generally maintained a "Buy" or "Strong Buy" consensus rating for CSX, with average price targets suggesting an upside from current levels. Analysts' confidence in the company's future performance and ongoing development initiatives contributed to a positive outlook.
<b>3. Capital Returns and Undervaluation:</b> In the second quarter of 2025, CSX returned a significant amount of capital to shareholders through dividends ($0.13 per share) and share repurchases (approximately 24 million shares for about $734 million). Despite some headwinds, analysts noted that CSX shares appeared to be trading at a discount to their fair value, indicating persistent undervaluation and potential for revaluation if profit growth forecasts are met.
<b>4. Infrastructure Projects and Operational Improvements:</b> CSX completed two major infrastructure projects in 2025: the $450 million Howard Street Tunnel clearance increase in Baltimore and the $500 million restoration of the Blue Ridge Subdivision, both finished ahead of schedule. These projects aim to increase efficiency and capacity within their network, positively impacting operational metrics.
<b>5. Investor Engagement and Transparency:</b> CSX executives, including the Executive Vice President and CFO Kevin Boone and Executive Vice President and COO Mike Cory, addressed several investor conferences in late 2025, such as Deutsche Bank's Transportation Conference in August and the UBS Global Industrials and Transportation Conference in December. These presentations, broadcast live, highlighted the company's commitment to engaging with investors and stakeholders, and emphasized its strategic alignment towards service, productivity, and price.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.1% change in CSX stock from 9/27/2025 to 12/27/2025 was primarily driven by a 15.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 9272025 | 12272025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 33.88 | 36.62 | 8.07% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14155.00 | 14123.00 | -0.23% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.91% | 20.55% | -6.24% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.39 | 23.52 | 15.33% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1867.00 | 1864.00 | 0.16% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.07% |
Market Drivers
9/27/2025 to 12/27/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CSX | 8.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.3% | 35.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 3.0% | 43.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 12.1% change in CSX stock from 6/28/2025 to 12/27/2025 was primarily driven by a 23.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 6282025 | 12272025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 32.66 | 36.62 | 12.13% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14282.00 | 14123.00 | -1.11% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.66% | 20.55% | -9.31% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.07 | 23.52 | 23.32% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1890.00 | 1864.00 | 1.38% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 12.11% |
Market Drivers
6/28/2025 to 12/27/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CSX | 12.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.6% | 26.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 7.5% | 34.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 14.6% change in CSX stock from 12/27/2024 to 12/27/2025 was primarily driven by a 37.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 12272024 | 12272025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 31.95 | 36.62 | 14.62% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14681.00 | 14123.00 | -3.80% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.65% | 20.55% | -16.64% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.09 | 23.52 | 37.63% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1936.00 | 1864.00 | 3.72% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 14.46% |
Market Drivers
12/27/2024 to 12/27/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CSX | 14.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.0% | 56.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 19.2% | 61.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 24.0% change in CSX stock from 12/28/2022 to 12/27/2025 was primarily driven by a 53.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 12282022 | 12272025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 29.52 | 36.62 | 24.04% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14550.00 | 14123.00 | -2.93% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 28.05% | 20.55% | -26.76% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.35 | 23.52 | 53.27% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2122.00 | 1864.00 | 12.16% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 22.21% |
Market Drivers
12/28/2023 to 12/27/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CSX | 8.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 48.0% | 50.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 41.2% | 61.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CSX Return | 27% | 26% | -17% | 14% | -6% | 16% | 65% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 38% | -12% | 21% | 26% | 16% | 150% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 18% | 114% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CSX Win Rate | 75% | 58% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 65% | 42% | 68% | 57% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CSX Max Drawdown | -34% | -8% | -29% | -9% | -8% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -5% | -26% | -7% | -9% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL. See CSX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/26/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CSX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 499 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -40.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 205 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -22.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 98 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -69.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 230.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 675 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL
In The Past
CSX's stock fell -29.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/30/2022. A -29.9% loss requires a 42.6% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few analogies for CSX:
The **UPS or FedEx of massive freight**, operating its own dedicated rail network across the eastern United States.
Like a giant trucking company such as **J.B. Hunt or Schneider**, but moving goods exclusively by train on its extensive railway system.
The **Union Pacific** of the eastern United States, serving as a critical backbone for industrial and consumer supply chains.
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- Freight Transportation: Provides rail transportation services for a diverse range of commodities, including agricultural products, chemicals, automobiles, and industrial goods.
- Intermodal Shipping: Offers rail transport for shipping containers and truck trailers, integrating with other transportation modes for efficient door-to-door delivery.
- Bulk Commodity Haulage: Specializes in moving large volumes of bulk materials such as coal, minerals, and aggregates for various industries.
AI Analysis | Feedback
CSX Corporation (CSX) is a Class I freight railroad primarily serving other businesses (B2B) across the eastern United States. Its operations involve transporting a diverse range of commodities, including intermodal containers, chemicals, automotive products, coal, agricultural products, metals, and various industrial goods. According to CSX's recent financial filings, no single customer accounted for more than 10% of its operating revenues in any of the past three fiscal years. Therefore, while CSX serves a vast array of companies, it does not have individually "major" customers in terms of revenue concentration. However, its customer base includes large enterprises within the industries it serves. Examples of types of companies that are customers of CSX include:Logistics and Shipping Companies: Such as J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (NASDAQ: JBHT), which utilizes CSX's intermodal services for container transport.
Automotive Manufacturers: Including General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) and Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F), for the transport of finished vehicles and auto parts.
Chemical and Petrochemical Companies: Such as Dow Inc. (NYSE: DOW) and Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM), moving various chemicals and petroleum products.
Agricultural and Food Processing Companies: Including Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (NYSE: ADM) and Cargill (private), for grain and other agricultural commodities.
Electric Utilities and Energy Companies: Such as Southern Company (NYSE: SO) and Duke Energy Corporation (NYSE: DUK), primarily for coal shipments, though this segment has diversified.
Construction and Materials Companies: Such as Vulcan Materials Company (NYSE: VMC) and Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (NYSE: MLM), for aggregates, cement, and other building materials.
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- Wabtec Corporation (NYSE: WAB)
- Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT)
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Steve Angel, President and Chief Executive Officer
Steve Angel was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of CSX in September 2025. He brings over 45 years of experience in the industrials sector. Prior to CSX, Angel served as Chief Executive Officer of Linde plc from 2018 to 2022, and as Chairman since 2022, overseeing the successful integration of Linde AG and Praxair, Inc., which created the world's largest industrial gases and engineering company. Before the merger, he served as Chairman, President, and CEO of Praxair, Inc. from 2007 to 2018, having initially joined Praxair in 2001. Angel began his career at General Electric, where he spent 22 years in various management positions, working directly with locomotive and rail operations. He currently serves as Non-Executive Chairman of the Board of Directors of GE Vernova and on the Board of Directors at GE Aerospace.
Kevin Boone, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Kevin Boone was re-appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of CSX in October 2025. He previously held the CFO role for two years during the COVID-19 pandemic and also served as Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer for four years. Boone joined CSX in 2017, also holding positions such as Vice President of Corporate Affairs and Chief Investor Relations Officer. Before joining CSX, he spent 18 years in the investment industry, specializing in finance, accounting, and mergers and acquisitions. His career includes roles as Senior Equity Research Analyst at Janus Capital, Vice President in equity research at Morgan Stanley, and Associate in the mergers and acquisitions group at Merrill Lynch.
Mike Cory, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
Mike Cory joined CSX in September 2023 as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, responsible for overseeing the company's operations strategy. He brings over 40 years of experience, primarily from Canadian National (CN) Railway, where he served as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer from 2016 to 2019. After retiring from CN in 2019, he provided transportation consulting services and was president of Pacific National, Australia's largest private railroad, in 2021. He began his railroad career as a laborer at CN in 1981.
Stephen Fortune, Executive Vice President and Chief Digital and Technology Officer
Stephen Fortune joined CSX in 2022 as Executive Vice President and Chief Digital and Technology Officer. In this role, he leads the company's technology strategy and digital solutions. Fortune previously spent 30 years at BP, most recently serving as Chief Information Officer (CIO) of the global BP Group. His prior roles at BP included CIO and Vice President for its Upstream oil and gas business, and he began his career there as a chemical and process engineer before transitioning to information technology in 2003.
Diana Sorfleet, Executive Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer
Diana Sorfleet was named Executive Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer of CSX in July 2018. Her responsibilities include aviation, facilities, human resources, people systems and analytics, and total rewards. She joined CSX in June 2011. Before her tenure at CSX, Sorfleet spent two decades in human resources at Exelon Corporation, where she rose to the position of Vice President for Diversity and Development and was responsible for developing company-wide human resources strategies and talent acquisition.
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The key risks to CSX's business are:
- Economic Downturns and Fluctuations in Demand for Freight Services: CSX's financial performance is highly sensitive to overall market conditions and economic uncertainty, which can lead to significant fluctuations in the demand for freight transportation services. Recent years have seen a slight decline in revenue and net income for CSX, attributed partly to factors such as lower export coal revenue and reduced merchandise volume, underscoring its vulnerability to external market forces and economic shifts.
- Regulatory and Environmental Risks: As a major railroad operator, CSX is subject to extensive federal, state, provincial, and local laws and regulations across economic, health, safety, labor, and environmental matters. New or modified rules, legislation, or government actions by agencies such as the Surface Transportation Board (STB), Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can significantly increase operating costs, adversely impact revenue, or reduce operational efficiencies. Non-compliance with these regulations could also result in fines, penalties, and reputational damage.
- Operational Challenges and Infrastructure Issues: CSX faces various operational risks including disruptions due to infrastructure failures, potential labor strikes, and network or supply chain constraints, all of which can negatively impact service quality, operating efficiency, and shipment volumes. Challenges in maintaining train velocity and terminal dwell times can lead to customer dissatisfaction and revenue loss. Additionally, the company's aging infrastructure presents ongoing challenges. The reliance on continuous strong operations also highlights liquidity concerns in the event of major, unforeseen disruptions.
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The emergence and development of autonomous long-haul trucking technology represents a clear emerging threat to freight railroads like CSX. As autonomous trucking technology matures and gains regulatory approval, it has the potential to significantly lower the operating costs of trucking by reducing or eliminating the need for human drivers. This would make trucking a more cost-competitive and flexible alternative for the long-haul movement of goods, directly challenging rail's traditional advantages in efficiency and cost for transcontinental and long-distance freight, particularly in the intermodal segment.
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CSX Corporation, a prominent transportation supplier, primarily offers rail-based freight transportation services across the Eastern United States and parts of Canada, with access to numerous port terminals. These services encompass traditional rail transport and the movement of intermodal containers and trailers. The company serves a diverse range of industries, including agriculture, automotive, coal, chemical manufacturing, forest products, minerals, and other industrial producers.
The addressable markets for CSX's main products and services in North America and the United States are substantial:
- North America Rail Freight Transportation Market: The North America rail freight transportation market size is projected to increase by USD 37.53 billion, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.3% between 2024 and 2029. Another estimate valued the North America rail transport market at USD 84.82 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach USD 128.11 billion by 2031 at a CAGR of 4.31%. The North America railroad market, including both freight and passenger transport, generated revenues of USD 94.32 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 129.68 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 5.3% from 2025 to 2030. The overall United States railroad market (freight and passenger) was valued at USD 332.2 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 460.8 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 3.52% from 2025-2033, with North America holding the dominant share. Specifically for the United States, the rail transportation market size was $101.9 billion in 2024 and $103.0 billion in 2025. The United States rail freight transport market alone was valued at USD 117.23 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 282.66 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 9.20% from 2025-2034.
- North America Intermodal Freight Transportation Market: The North American intermodal freight market, which is the largest globally, has an estimated value of $51 billion. This market generated a revenue of USD 15.27 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 10.9% from 2024 to 2030, reaching approximately USD 31.58 billion by 2030. Globally, the intermodal freight transportation market was estimated at USD 42.9 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 93.51 billion by 2030, with North America holding the largest share of 35.6% in 2023. North America dominated this market with approximately 34% of the revenue share in 2023, within an overall market valued at USD 82.2 billion in 2023, estimated to grow at a CAGR of over 9% between 2024 and 2032. The year-to-date intermodal volume in the U.S. through November 2024 reached 12.75 million units, representing a 9.1% increase from the previous year.
- U.S. Coal Transportation Market (by rail): Coal remains a significant commodity for rail transport. In the U.S., approximately 75% of the coal transported in 2023 was by railroads, with the total quantity of coal transported to power stations declining to 422 million tons in 2023. The U.S. coal logistics market was valued at $11.6 billion in 2024. Mining & Minerals, which includes coal, commanded a 22% market share of 2024 U.S. rail freight volumes.
- U.S. Agricultural Products Rail Transportation Market: Agriculture is the fourth largest user of rail by tonnage in the U.S.. The agricultural products sector within the U.S. rail freight transport market is expected to exhibit a CAGR of 10.4% from 2025 to 2034. Farm products contributed 11% ($3.1 billion) of trade-related rail revenue in 2023 for U.S.-Canada and U.S.-Mexico trade. The global smart agri-rail system market, with the U.S. accounting for over 85% of the revenue share, was valued at USD 3.5 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.2% between 2024 and 2032.
- U.S. Chemical Rail Transportation Market: Approximately 1 billion tons of chemical products are transported annually within the United States, utilizing an intermodal network that includes rail. In 2023, over 2.3 million freight rail cars transported plastics, fertilizers, and other dry and liquid bulk chemical products across the U.S.. Chemicals represented the top revenue-generating commodity, making up approximately 19% ($5.8 billion) of trade-related rail revenues in North America in 2023. Year-to-date U.S. chemical carloads through September 2025 reached a record 1.29 million carloads.
- North America Forest Products Logistics Market (including rail): The global forest products logistics market was valued at USD 73.36 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 110.39 billion by 2032, with North America being the second-largest market. In 2024, North America's forest products logistics market was valued at USD 19.6 billion and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5.71%.
AI Analysis | Feedback
CSX Corporation (NASDAQ: CSX) is expected to experience future revenue growth over the next two to three years, driven by several strategic initiatives and market trends. Key drivers include a resurgence in U.S. manufacturing, expansion of its intermodal network, strategic partnerships to extend network reach, continued strong pricing, and growth in specific merchandise categories.
- U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance and Industrial Development: CSX anticipates a significant boost from a revival in U.S. manufacturing, particularly in the Southeast. An extensive industrial development pipeline is projected to add between 150,000 and 300,000 carloads annually by 2027, primarily within its merchandise business. This is expected to generate approximately $1.2 billion in revenue from 2025 through 2027. This growth is tied to rising demand in sectors such as cement and aggregates, waste traffic, chemicals, forest products, and agricultural shipments, including soybeans for renewable fuels.
- Intermodal Growth and Truck-to-Rail Conversions: The company forecasts intermodal traffic to grow 2% to 3% above overall economic growth over the next three years. This will be fueled by both domestic and international traffic gains, with a strategic focus on converting freight from trucks to rail. CSX aims to achieve this by optimizing transit times and costs, and by leveraging challenges faced by the trucking industry such as higher fuel and insurance expenses and driver shortages. Major infrastructure projects, like the Howard Street Tunnel clearance in Baltimore, are anticipated to enable double-stack service and contribute an additional 75,000 to 125,000 annual intermodal shipments starting in 2026.
- Network Expansion and Strategic Partnerships: CSX is expanding its network reach through initiatives such as integrating the Pan Am Railways territory in New England and establishing a new corridor linking the Southeast with Texas and Mexico via interline service with Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC), with initial operations commencing in December 2024. These efforts are part of a broader strategy to position CSX as a comprehensive door-to-door freight partner, enhancing its logistical capabilities.
- Sustained Merchandise Pricing Gains: Favorable pricing is expected to continue contributing to revenue growth. In the third quarter of 2024, merchandise revenue increased by an impressive 6%, a result of both a 3% volume increase and solid pricing strategies. Management commentary indicates that core merchandise pricing remains robust, suggesting continued strength in this area.
- Growth in Key Merchandise Categories: Beyond general industrial expansion, CSX is targeting specific merchandise segments for notable growth. The chemicals segment has already demonstrated strong performance, with a 9% year-over-year volume increase in Q3 2024 across plastics, industrial chemicals, liquefied petroleum gases (LPGs), and waste. Additionally, the acquisition of Quality Carriers in 2021 is beginning to yield "extraordinary growth" in the chemicals transload business.
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```htmlShare Repurchases
- CSX's annual share buybacks were $4.731 billion in 2022, $3.482 billion in 2023, and $2.237 billion in 2024.
- For the quarter ending September 30, 2025, share buybacks amounted to $112 million.
Share Issuance
- Under the Employee Stock Purchase Plan (ESPP), CSX issued approximately 1.012 million shares in 2024, 959,000 shares in 2023, and 726,000 shares in 2022.
Outbound Investments
- CSX made strategic investments including the acquisition of the Meridian & Bigbee Railroad.
Capital Expenditures
- CSX's capital expenditure budget for 2024 was approximately $2.5 billion, an increase from $2.3 billion in 2023.
- The 2024 capital expenditures focused on capacity expansion, growth-related projects, equipment additions, and ongoing improvements to former Pan Am Railways infrastructure, as well as a new Meridian and Bigbee Railroad interchange.
- The company anticipates a 3-year capital investment of $7.5 billion to $8.0 billion, with a high priority on safety and reliability, and increased use of data and advanced analytics.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to CSX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.3% | 18.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.5% | 5.5% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.1% | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.9% | 2.9% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 5.7% | 5.7% | -0.4% |
| 03312025 | CSX | CSX | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 22.7% | 25.9% | -9.3% |
| 04302023 | CSX | CSX | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -3.9% | 12.3% | -3.9% |
| 10312022 | CSX | CSX | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 8.4% | 4.2% | -2.7% |
| 04302022 | CSX | CSX | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -14.4% | -9.6% | -22.3% |
| 11302019 | CSX | CSX | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 29.3% | -33.1% |
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Peer Comparisons for CSX
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 57.39 |
| Mkt Cap | 176.6 |
| Rev LTM | 56,496 |
| Op Inc LTM | 8,186 |
| FCF LTM | 7,327 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,366 |
| CFO LTM | 9,049 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 9,292 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 22.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 176.6 |
| P/S | 4.6 |
| P/EBIT | 21.2 |
| P/E | 33.0 |
| P/CFO | 18.0 |
| Total Yield | 5.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 13.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 15.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 76.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 1.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -0.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -6.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rail | 13,775 | 14,853 | 10,583 | 11,937 | |
| Trucking Revenue | 887 | ||||
| Elimination of intersegment revenues | -5 | ||||
| Agricultural and Food Products | 1,461 | ||||
| Automotive | 886 | ||||
| Chemicals | 2,421 | ||||
| Coal | 1,790 | ||||
| Fertilizers | 470 | ||||
| Forest Products | 918 | ||||
| Intermodal | 2,039 | ||||
| Metals and Equipment | 796 | ||||
| Minerals | 587 | ||||
| Other | 744 | ||||
| Trucking | 410 | ||||
| Total | 14,657 | 14,853 | 12,522 | 10,583 | 11,937 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rail | 5,467 | ||||
| Trucking Revenue and Eliminations | 882 | ||||
| Trucking Expenses and Eliminations | -850 | ||||
| Total | 5,499 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rail | 42,000 | ||||
| Total | 42,000 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $36.62 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 68.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/03/1980 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -2.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $35.65 | $32.88 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 2.7% | 11.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 17.0% | 23.6% |
| Downside Capture | 58.99 | 67.54 |
| Upside Capture | 84.26 | 70.38 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 32.3% | 56.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.57 | 0.43 | 0.50 | 0.57 | 0.68 | 0.75 |
| Up Beta | 0.17 | 0.22 | 0.31 | 0.05 | 0.71 | 0.82 |
| Down Beta | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.59 | 0.66 | 0.65 |
| Up Capture | 54% | 34% | 65% | 70% | 47% | 38% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 25 | 38 | 73 | 141 | 426 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 21 | 31 | 63 | 127 | 379 |
| Down Capture | 73% | 50% | 42% | 75% | 79% | 93% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 52 | 107 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 20 | 31 | 62 | 121 | 369 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Comparison of CSX With Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSX | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 16.8% | 19.3% | 17.8% | 72.1% | 8.6% | 4.4% | -8.2% |
| Annualized Volatility | 23.4% | 18.8% | 19.4% | 19.3% | 15.2% | 17.0% | 35.0% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.72 | 2.70 | 0.34 | 0.09 | -0.08 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 61.3% | 56.5% | -4.1% | 14.6% | 52.2% | 16.2% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLI, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Comparison of CSX With Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSX | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 5.3% | 13.8% | 14.7% | 18.7% | 11.5% | 4.6% | 30.8% |
| Annualized Volatility | 23.3% | 17.2% | 17.1% | 15.5% | 18.7% | 18.9% | 48.6% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.20 | 0.65 | 0.70 | 0.97 | 0.50 | 0.16 | 0.57 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 68.4% | 59.0% | 6.0% | 19.8% | 50.9% | 20.0% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLI, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Comparison of CSX With Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSX | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 17.4% | 13.5% | 14.8% | 15.3% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 69.2% |
| Annualized Volatility | 28.0% | 19.9% | 18.0% | 14.7% | 17.6% | 20.8% | 55.8% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.62 | 0.60 | 0.71 | 0.86 | 0.32 | 0.22 | 0.90 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 73.0% | 65.0% | -0.1% | 28.2% | 51.7% | 14.3% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLI, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/16/2025 | 1.7% | -1.3% | -3.0% |
| 7/23/2025 | 0.1% | 0.9% | 2.6% |
| 4/16/2025 | 1.2% | 2.9% | 14.5% |
| 1/23/2025 | -2.9% | -2.4% | -5.5% |
| 10/16/2024 | -6.7% | -5.3% | 0.5% |
| 8/5/2024 | 2.6% | 1.5% | 6.0% |
| 4/17/2024 | 0.7% | -1.4% | -0.7% |
| 1/24/2024 | 1.8% | 3.8% | 11.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 11 | 16 |
| # Negative | 8 | 13 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 1.7% | 3.5% | 5.5% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -2.3% | -2.3% |
| Max Positive | 4.3% | 11.9% | 16.5% |
| Max Negative | -6.7% | -5.4% | -12.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10162025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7232025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4162025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10172024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4182024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10202023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7202023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4202023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10212022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7212022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4212022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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