Bank of America (BAC)
Market Price (4/12/2026): $52.6 | Market Cap: $387.4 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Banks
Bank of America (BAC)
Market Price (4/12/2026): $52.6Market Cap: $387.4 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.9% Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -67% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 13 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 47 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 13% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, Sustainable Finance, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 31x Key risksBAC key risks include [1] net interest income compression due to high sensitivity to interest rate changes and [2] potential for increased loan losses from deteriorating credit quality in its commercial real estate portfolio. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.9% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -67% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 13 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 47 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 13% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, Sustainable Finance, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 31x |
| Key risksBAC key risks include [1] net interest income compression due to high sensitivity to interest rate changes and [2] potential for increased loan losses from deteriorating credit quality in its commercial real estate portfolio. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Bank of America's 2026 Net Interest Income (NII) growth outlook fell short of some Wall Street expectations.
Despite reporting better-than-expected Q4 2025 earnings with an EPS of $0.98 against a forecast of $0.96 and revenue of $28.4 billion exceeding the $27.55 billion estimate, Bank of America's stock declined, including a 2.4% drop in pre-market trading, as investor focus shifted to future guidance. The company's projection of 5-7% net interest income growth for the full year 2026 was lower than anticipated by some analysts, leading to concerns that the bank's NII might be nearing its peak. This overshadowed the strong Q4 performance.
2. Macroeconomic factors, particularly a flatter yield curve and evolving interest rate expectations, created headwinds for the banking sector.
The market's anticipation of a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve and diminished expectations for future rate cuts contributed to a flatter yield curve. For a money center bank like Bank of America with a substantial deposit base, a lower interest rate environment in 2026 could compress profit margins, thereby impacting its overall profitability and loan growth.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.8% change in BAC stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -8.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 54.69 | 52.60 | -3.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 111,233 | 113,097 | 1.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 26.5% | 27.0% | 1.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.8 | 12.7 | -8.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 7,466 | 7,364 | 1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.8% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BAC | -3.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 47.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | -7.3% | 83.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 3.1% change in BAC stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 4.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 51.03 | 52.60 | 3.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 108,490 | 113,097 | 4.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 25.7% | 27.0% | 4.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.9 | 12.7 | -8.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 7,581 | 7,364 | 2.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 3.1% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BAC | 2.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 48.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | -5.4% | 79.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 28.9% change in BAC stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 8.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 40.81 | 52.60 | 28.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 105,856 | 113,097 | 6.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 25.5% | 27.0% | 5.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.7 | 12.7 | 8.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 7,738 | 7,364 | 5.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 28.9% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BAC | 28.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 67.5% |
| Sector (XLF) | 3.0% | 82.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 98.8% change in BAC stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 63.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 26.46 | 52.60 | 98.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 94,950 | 113,097 | 19.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.0% | 27.0% | -7.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.8 | 12.7 | 63.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 8,088 | 7,364 | 9.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 98.8% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BAC | 98.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 58.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | 64.9% | 81.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BAC Return | 50% | -24% | 5% | 34% | 28% | -4% | 97% |
| Peers Return | 37% | -13% | 20% | 45% | 49% | 0% | 211% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 82% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BAC Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 50% | 75% | 67% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 43% | 53% | 62% | 72% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BAC Max Drawdown | -2% | -32% | -22% | -6% | -21% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -27% | -12% | -4% | -16% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: JPM, WFC, C, MS, GS. See BAC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/10/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BAC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -49.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 96.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 665 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -49.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 97.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -30.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 318 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -94.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1578.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 6,079 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to JPM, WFC, C, MS, GS
In The Past
Bank of America's stock fell -49.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/8/2022. A -49.0% loss requires a 96.2% gain to breakeven.
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About Bank of America (BAC)
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Bank of America (BAC) Major Products and Services
- Consumer Deposit Accounts: Offers a range of accounts including checking, savings, money market, Certificates of Deposit (CDs), and IRAs for individual consumers.
- Consumer Lending: Provides various loans and credit products such as credit cards, debit cards, residential mortgages, home equity loans, and personal loans (e.g., automotive, recreational vehicle).
- Wealth Management & Investment Services: Delivers investment management, brokerage, trust, retirement planning, and customized wealth solutions to high-net-worth individuals and institutions.
- Commercial Lending: Offers lending products and services including commercial loans, leases, commitment facilities, trade finance, and commercial real estate lending to businesses and governments.
- Treasury & Payment Solutions: Provides treasury management, foreign exchange, short-term investing, working capital management, and merchant services for businesses.
- Investment Banking: Facilitates debt and equity underwriting and distribution, along with merger-related and other financial advisory services.
- Global Markets & Trading: Offers market-making, financing, securities clearing, settlement, custody services, and risk management products across various asset classes like interest rates, equities, and currencies.
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Major Customers of Bank of America (BAC)
Bank of America serves a broad range of clients. Based on the description, particularly the mention of "approximately 67 million consumer and small business clients," the company primarily serves individuals and smaller business entities. Its major customer categories include:
- Individual Consumers: This category encompasses a vast number of clients who utilize traditional and money market savings accounts, checking accounts, credit and debit cards, residential mortgages, home equity loans, and various consumer personal loans.
- High-Net-Worth Individuals and Families: Served through its Global Wealth & Investment Management segment, these clients receive specialized investment management, brokerage, banking, trust, and retirement products and services, including customized wealth management solutions.
- Small and Middle-Market Businesses: While technically companies, Bank of America groups these clients with consumers in its large client count. These businesses receive services such as commercial loans, leases, treasury solutions, working capital management, and other banking products tailored to their operational needs.
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Brian T. Moynihan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Brian Moynihan became CEO of Bank of America in 2010 and was named Chairman in 2010. He joined FleetBoston Financial in 1993, managing its brokerage and wealth management division from 1999 to 2004. Following Bank of America's merger with FleetBoston Financial in 2004, he joined Bank of America. He was named CEO of Merrill Lynch after its acquisition by Bank of America in September 2008. Before his banking career, Moynihan began as an attorney at Edwards & Angell LLP.
Alastair Borthwick, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Alastair Borthwick was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Bank of America in 2021. Prior to this, he served as President of Global Commercial Banking for Bank of America from 2012 to 2021. Borthwick also held positions as Managing Director and Co-Head of Global Capital Markets, and Head of Global Investment Grade Debt Capital Markets at Bank of America. He joined Bank of America in 2005, having spent the preceding 12 years at Goldman Sachs.
Dean Athanasia, Co-President
Dean Athanasia was named Co-President of Bank of America in September 2025. He jointly oversees all lines of business across the company's four segments and is responsible for driving company-wide strategic initiatives. He served as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer from 2021 to 2024.
Jim DeMare, Co-President
Jim DeMare was appointed Co-President of Bank of America in September 2025, sharing oversight of all lines of business and strategic initiatives. He possesses over three decades of experience in the financial services industry. Most recently, he led Global Markets for Bank of America. Before joining Bank of America in 2008, he held various management and senior trading positions in fixed income at other financial institutions.
Tom Scrivener, Chief Operations Executive
Tom Scrivener is the chief operations executive for Bank of America, responsible for delivering integrated operations solutions across all business lines. He joined the company in 2002. His previous roles at Bank of America include leading the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) Forgiveness program and serving as head of Operations for the Consumer, Small Business & Wealth Management businesses. Prior to Bank of America, Scrivener held leadership roles at Balboa Insurance Group, as well as in public accounting and market risk consulting.
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Bank of America (BAC) faces several key risks to its business, primarily stemming from credit quality deterioration, interest rate fluctuations, and heightened regulatory scrutiny.
1. Credit Risk
A significant risk for Bank of America is the potential deterioration in credit quality, particularly concerning its commercial real estate (CRE) and consumer loan portfolios. The commercial real estate market, especially office properties, is experiencing weakness due to high interest rates, softening property values, and challenges in refinancing maturing loans. An estimated 20% of outstanding commercial mortgages are projected to mature in 2025, which could exacerbate these issues. Furthermore, Bank of America itself has noted subtle warning signs in consumer health, with spending growth slowing and early-stage credit card delinquencies showing increases. Concerns also exist regarding emerging credit risks from booming prediction markets and sports gambling, which Bank of America Global Research indicates could lead to overextension of credit and rising loan defaults, particularly impacting young men and low-income consumers.
2. Interest Rate Risk
Interest rate fluctuations pose a notable risk, impacting Bank of America's profitability through its net interest margin (NIM) and the value of its securities portfolio. While higher interest rates can increase deposit costs and squeeze bank margins, the bank also faces concerns related to elevated levels of unrealized losses on its held-to-maturity (HTM) bond portfolio. As of late 2025, Bank of America had substantial unrealized losses in its HTM bond portfolio, accounting for a significant portion of its CET1 capital. A combination of higher deposit costs, lower policy rates, and constrained loan potential could adversely impact banks' ability to generate strong net interest margins in the future.
3. Regulatory and Compliance Risk
Increased regulatory scrutiny and the necessity for robust compliance programs present a considerable risk. Bank of America has recently faced direct regulatory action, including a cease-and-desist order issued by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) in December 2024. This order cited deficiencies in the bank's Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) and sanctions compliance programs, specifically noting failures in identifying, evaluating, and reporting suspicious activity, as well as shortcomings in its Customer Due Diligence (CDD) processes. Addressing these compliance deficiencies requires comprehensive corrective actions and significant investment, which can lead to increased operational expenses.
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Emerging Threats for Bank of America (BAC):
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Digital-first banking challengers (Fintechs and Neobanks): These agile, technology-driven companies offer seamless digital experiences, often with lower fees and more specialized services for checking, savings, and payments. They are directly competing for Bank of America's vast consumer and small business client base, particularly among younger and digitally native demographics, potentially eroding market share from its Consumer Banking segment.
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Alternative credit and payment models (e.g., Buy Now, Pay Later - BNPL): The rapid growth of BNPL services is fundamentally shifting consumer payment habits. These services provide point-of-sale financing that competes directly with traditional credit cards and consumer loans offered by Bank of America, potentially reducing demand for its conventional credit products and impacting revenue streams within its Consumer Banking segment.
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Technology-driven disruption in wealth management (e.g., Robo-advisors and Commission-free trading platforms): Robo-advisors offer automated, low-cost investment management, challenging traditional human advisory services. Concurrently, commission-free trading platforms have democratized access to investing, attracting a large base of retail investors with zero-cost models. Both trends exert pressure on the fee structures and client acquisition strategies of Bank of America's Global Wealth & Investment Management segment.
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Bank of America (BAC) operates in several large financial markets across the globe. The estimated addressable market sizes for its main products and services are as follows:
- Retail Banking: The U.S. retail banking market generated a revenue of approximately USD 1.28 trillion in 2025.
- Credit Cards: The total value of the U.S. credit card market reached approximately USD 461 billion in 2023.
- Residential Mortgages and Home Loans: The US home loan market size is projected to reach approximately USD 2.42 trillion in 2026.
- Auto Loans: Americans owed approximately USD 1.655 trillion in auto loan debt as of Q3 2025.
- Wealth Management: The global wealth management market size was valued at approximately USD 1.83 trillion in 2024. North America dominated this market in 2023.
- Commercial Lending: The global commercial lending market size was approximately USD 16.44 trillion in 2024.
- Investment Banking (including Debt & Equity Underwriting and M&A Advisory): The global investment banking market size was valued at approximately USD 111.0 billion in 2024. The U.S. investment banking market is expected to reach approximately USD 54.74 billion in 2025.
- Foreign Exchange: The global foreign exchange market size is estimated at approximately USD 1.02 trillion in 2025.
- Derivatives: The notional value of outstanding global Over-The-Counter (OTC) derivatives rose to approximately USD 846 trillion at June 2025.
For Treasury Solutions and Merchant Services, specific addressable market sizes were not readily available in the provided information.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Bank of America (BAC) over the Next 2-3 Years
Bank of America anticipates several key drivers to fuel its revenue growth over the next two to three years, stemming from its diversified business model and strategic investments. These include sustained net interest income expansion, robust loan and deposit growth, increased activity in investment banking and global markets, advancements in digital transformation and artificial intelligence, and strategic expansion within its consumer banking segment.
- Net Interest Income (NII) Expansion: Bank of America projects net interest income growth of 5-7% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in the medium term and at least 7% in the first quarter of 2026. This growth is expected to be driven by strong lending activity, the repricing of fixed-rate assets into higher-yielding investments, and effective management of deposit costs, especially with anticipated gradual interest rate cuts.
- Growth in Lending and Deposits: The company targets GDP-plus deposit growth of 4% or higher and loan growth of 5% or higher. For instance, average loans grew 8% and average deposits grew 3% year-over-year in Q4 2025, with commercial loans rising 12%. Continued expansion in both commercial and consumer loan portfolios, alongside an increase in mobile banking deposits, is crucial for revenue generation.
- Increased Investment Banking and Global Markets Activity: Bank of America expects rising activity in investment banking and global markets to boost performance. Investment banking fees are projected to increase by around 10%, and global markets revenue is expected to grow by a low double-digit percentage in Q1 2026, marking potentially the 16th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth for the global markets division. This is supported by increased trading activity and market volatility.
- Digital Transformation and AI Integration: The bank is heavily investing in technology and artificial intelligence (AI), including its "Erica" platform, to enhance customer experience, improve operational efficiency, and drive profitable growth. These digital innovations have already led to record client interactions and are central to the bank's "high-tech, high-touch" delivery strategy in its consumer segment.
- Strategic Expansion and Product Innovation in Consumer Banking: Bank of America is focused on investments in payments capabilities, credit card features, and expanding its market presence to drive consumer growth. The strategy centers on holding clients' core operating accounts and expanding into credit and investment solutions as client needs evolve, including growth opportunities with family banking, student banking, and employee banking and investing programs.
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Share Repurchases
- Bank of America authorized a new $40 billion common stock repurchase program, effective August 1, 2025, to replace the previous program. This program intends to repurchase approximately $4.5 billion worth of shares each quarter in the near term.
- In 2025, Bank of America's annual share buybacks amounted to $21.433 billion.
- Over the 12-month period ending September 2025, the company conducted $18.658 billion in share buybacks.
Share Issuance
- Bank of America has primarily focused on share repurchases, leading to a reduction in its outstanding shares. For instance, shares outstanding decreased from 7.87 billion to 7.56 billion in the year leading up to August 2025.
- As of Q4 2025, the number of shares outstanding was 7.21 billion, marking a 1.2% decrease from the prior quarter.
Outbound Investments
- In April 2021, Bank of America acquired AxiaMed, a payment gateway for hospitals and healthcare professionals.
- Bank of America made a strategic investment in iCapital in July 2022, a global fintech platform focused on alternative investing.
Capital Expenditures
- Bank of America did not report meaningful capital expenditures for the twelve months ending December 31, 2025.
- For the three months ended September 2025, the company reported $0 million in cash flow for capital expenditures.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 151.25 |
| Mkt Cap | 279.1 |
| Rev LTM | 84,236 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | -34,002 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -22,876 |
| CFO LTM | -32,078 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -20,169 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -52.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -31.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -56.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -34.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 279.1 |
| P/S | 3.8 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 15.2 |
| P/CFO | -6.0 |
| Total Yield | 6.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -8.9% |
| D/E | 1.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 15.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 15.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 59.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 145.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 10.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -2.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 11.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 31.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 89.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Banking | 41,436 | 42,031 | 38,635 | 34,005 | 33,262 |
| Global Banking | 23,748 | 24,796 | 22,229 | 20,875 | 18,987 |
| Global Wealth & Investment Management | 22,929 | 21,105 | 21,748 | 20,748 | 18,584 |
| Global Markets | 21,812 | 19,527 | 18,138 | 19,255 | 18,765 |
| Tax-exempt securities | -619 | -567 | -438 | -427 | -499 |
| All Other | -3,450 | -8,311 | -5,362 | -5,343 | -3,571 |
| Total | 105,856 | 98,581 | 94,950 | 89,113 | 85,528 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Banking | 10,759 | 11,593 | 12,516 | 11,891 | 6,504 |
| Global Banking | 7,984 | 10,248 | 7,807 | 9,814 | 3,466 |
| Global Markets | 5,622 | 4,678 | 4,182 | 4,557 | 5,252 |
| Global Wealth & Investment Management | 4,263 | 3,947 | 4,675 | 4,327 | 3,071 |
| All Other | -1,655 | -3,951 | -1,652 | 1,389 | -399 |
| Total | 26,973 | 26,515 | 27,528 | 31,978 | 17,894 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Banking | 1,034,370 | 1,049,830 | 1,126,453 | 1,131,142 | 988,580 |
| Global Markets | 876,548 | 817,588 | 812,489 | 747,794 | 616,609 |
| Global Banking | 670,505 | 621,751 | 588,466 | 638,131 | 580,561 |
| All Other | 341,509 | 346,356 | 155,074 | 214,153 | 264,141 |
| Global Wealth & Investment Management | 338,367 | 344,626 | 368,893 | 438,275 | 369,736 |
| Total | 3,261,299 | 3,180,151 | 3,051,375 | 3,169,495 | 2,819,627 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $52.54 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 386.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/29/1986 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -7.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $50.53 | $50.53 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 26.5% | 22.1% |
| Downside Capture | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| Upside Capture | 66.75 | 103.04 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 42.5% | 55.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.66 | 0.95 | 0.94 | 0.86 | 0.95 | 0.97 |
| Up Beta | -0.00 | 1.10 | 1.07 | 0.87 | 0.69 | 0.80 |
| Down Beta | 1.17 | 0.69 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 1.34 | 1.13 |
| Up Capture | 50% | 94% | 79% | 83% | 95% | 106% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 67 | 144 | 393 |
| Down Capture | 48% | 106% | 115% | 99% | 95% | 99% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 19 | 30 | 59 | 106 | 353 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BAC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAC | 53.6% | 23.1% | 1.79 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 16.9% | 17.3% | 0.74 | 80.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 31.2% | 17.3% | 1.47 | 60.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 60.1% | 27.8% | 1.69 | -1.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 29.8% | 16.6% | 1.58 | 11.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 21.3% | 15.2% | 1.07 | 43.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -4.3% | 43.7% | 0.02 | 29.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BAC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAC | 8.3% | 26.8% | 0.30 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.7% | 18.7% | 0.40 | 85.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.1% | 17.0% | 0.50 | 62.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.1% | 17.8% | 1.02 | 0.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.8% | 18.8% | 0.52 | 19.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.7% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 48.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.3% | 56.5% | 0.30 | 21.6% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BAC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAC | 17.1% | 30.8% | 0.58 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.7% | 22.2% | 0.53 | 90.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.8% | 17.9% | 0.66 | 69.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.2% | 15.9% | 0.74 | -8.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.41 | 27.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 52.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.6% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 16.0% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/14/2026 | -3.8% | -4.5% | -3.7% |
| 10/15/2025 | 4.4% | 2.9% | 8.0% |
| 7/16/2025 | -0.3% | 3.5% | 2.4% |
| 4/15/2025 | 3.6% | 4.5% | 22.0% |
| 1/16/2025 | -1.0% | -1.5% | -0.3% |
| 10/15/2024 | 0.5% | -0.4% | 9.4% |
| 7/16/2024 | 5.3% | 1.0% | -8.2% |
| 4/16/2024 | -3.5% | 5.0% | 7.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 9 | 18 |
| # Negative | 11 | 15 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 3.4% | 4.5% | 7.1% |
| Median Negative | -2.7% | -2.8% | -7.8% |
| Max Positive | 6.1% | 11.1% | 22.0% |
| Max Negative | -6.5% | -8.8% | -12.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Demare, James P | President, Global Markets | Revocable Trust | Sell | 8012025 | 45.57 | 148,391 | 6,761,733 | 10,179,987 | Form |
| 2 | Borthwick, Alastair M | Executive Vice President & CFO | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 50.24 | 68,000 | 3,416,320 | 16,470,832 | Form |
| 3 | Athanasia, Dean C | Co-President | Direct | Sell | 3052026 | 50.21 | 136,558 | 6,856,168 | 28,042,668 | Form |
| 4 | Mensah, Bernard A | President, International | Direct | Sell | 3132026 | 46.94 | 94,000 | 4,412,642 | 7,988,948 | Form |
BAC Trade Sentinel
AVOID (Score 1-2)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The investment thesis presents a highly unfavorable risk/reward skew. The downside scenario (-36.7%) is mathematically much larger than the upside scenario (+20.5%), and the probability weighting (40% up / 60% down) further skews the outcome negatively. The primary cyclical headwind of NII compression is a more powerful and immediate force than the secular, slow-moving benefit of the GWIM mix-shift, making the stock unattractive at the current valuation.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical / CommodityBank of America's core profitability is fundamentally tied to the interest rate cycle, which dictates its Net Interest Margin—the 'price' of its primary commodity (money/credit). The business is mature and its growth tracks the broader economy, making cycle timing and normalized earnings power the most critical analytical frameworks, which are central to the 'Cyclical' archetype.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary long thesis is Bank of America's successful and ongoing pivot towards its higher-margin, less interest-rate-sensitive Global Wealth & Investment Management (GWIM) business. This segment's growth is outpacing traditional banking, improving the quality and stability of the overall earnings stream and justifying a higher valuation multiple over time.
- GWIM revenue grew 10% YoY in Q4 2025, significantly outpacing the 5% growth in the larger Consumer Banking segment.
- Client balances within GWIM increased 12% YoY to $4.8 trillion, driven by both market appreciation and positive net client flows.
- The GWIM segment added 21,000 net new relationships in 2025, indicating strong momentum and market share capture in a key growth area.
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant risk to the stock is a faster-than-guided compression of Net Interest Income (NII) due to more aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2026. The market is pricing in a dovish Fed policy that directly conflicts with the company's NII growth guidance, setting up a potential for a material earnings miss.
- Management has guided to 5-7% NII growth for 2026, while consensus economic forecasts anticipate multiple rate cuts.
- Bank of America's own sensitivity analysis indicates that a 100-basis-point parallel downward shift in the yield curve would reduce NII by approximately $2.0 billion over 12 months.
- Revenue estimate revisions for FY2026 have been trending down, reflecting analyst concerns over the NII outlook.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Full-Year Net Interest Income (NII) Growth Guidance | Maintain 5-7% Range | This is the primary Anti-Alpha risk. Any downward revision from the current 5-7% guided range for FY2026 would confirm the bear case that margin pressure is worse than management's forecast. |
| Consumer Credit Net Charge-Off Rate | Remain below 1.00% | This is the leading indicator for credit deterioration. A sequential rise above the rates seen in early 2025 would signal that macro credit normalization is accelerating and would force a material increase in provisions for credit losses, impacting earnings. |
| Global Wealth & Investment Management (GWIM) Revenue Growth | >10% YoY | This is the core of the Alpha Driver. The bull thesis relies on this segment's ability to outgrow the rest of the bank and improve the quality of the earnings mix. Growth below this level would weaken the long thesis. |
NII Deceleration vs. Capital Returns & Efficiency
BULL VIEW
Aggressive buybacks and positive operating leverage will drive EPS growth, while strong wealth management performance provides a stable fee-based offset to cyclical NII pressure.
CORE TENSION
Can strong capital returns and efficiency gains offset the impact of decelerating Net Interest Income (NII) growth as the Fed potentially cuts interest rates faster than guided?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Management's 2026 NII growth guidance of 5-7% is a deceleration from Q4 2025's 10% YoY growth, and consensus estimates are already trending down, reflecting this concern.
BEAR VIEW
Faster-than-guided Fed rate cuts will materially compress Net Interest Margin, causing an earnings miss that overwhelms buybacks. Latent credit risks in CRE and consumer could surface.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
April 15, 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Call & Guidance Watch: Full-Year 2026 NII growth guidance. Watch for any revision from the current 5-7% range. Also, monitor Provisions for Credit Losses for signs of consumer stress. |
Ongoing (Monthly) | Monthly Consumer Credit Data Release (NY Fed) Watch: 30+ day delinquency rates for credit cards and auto loans. A sharp sequential increase signals rising stress for BAC's consumer loan portfolio. |
H1 2026 | Finalization of Basel III "Endgame" Rules Watch: Final mandated increase in Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital requirements for G-SIBs like Bank of America. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Aug 18, 2025 | Investor Day Announcement Details: Bank of America announced it would host an investor day on November 5, 2025, for its management team to present strategic priorities. The market reaction was muted. | Flat (0.3%) $47.40 -> $47.56 |
Sep 18, 2025 | DOJ Investigation Settlement Details: BofA Securities resolved a criminal investigation with the DOJ regarding market manipulation by former employees, agreeing to pay $5.56 million. The stock reaction was positive. | Modest 1.4% gain $51.13 -> $51.86 |
Oct 15, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: The company reported strong results, with Consumer Banking net income up 28% YoY and Wealth Management net income up 19%. Despite the strong report, the stock sold off. | Fell notably by -3.5% $52.00 -> $50.17 |
Nov 5, 2025 | Bank of America Investor Day 2025 Details: Management presented the company's strategic priorities and growth opportunities, focusing on digital transformation, wealth management, and operational efficiency. The stock saw a slight pullback following the event. | Slight -2.0% pullback $53.26 -> $52.17 |
Dec 24, 2025 | Stock Reaches 52-Week High Details: The stock reached a new 52-week high, capping a strong rally in the second half of 2025 driven by solid earnings and a favorable macro backdrop at the time. | Flat (0.5%) $55.97 -> $56.25 |
Jan 14, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Release Details: BAC beat analyst estimates on EPS ($0.98 vs $0.96) and revenue. Despite the beat, the stock showed a muted reaction, reflecting concerns over decelerating forward NII growth guidance. | Flat (0.2%) $52.48 -> $52.59 |
Position Sizing
4%-6%
NORMAL
Volatility is moderate and compressing. While sentiment is Neutral and near-term visibility is only Medium, the bank's moat is stable and the business is a high-quality compounder. This profile warrants a standard allocation, not an aggressive one.
Diversification Alternatives
JPM
INDUSTRYConsidered best-in-class operator with a stronger perceived brand in Ultra-High-Net-Worth wealth management and a larger, more profitable investment bank.
SCHW
SECTORLess direct exposure to commercial and consumer credit risk. Revenue is more heavily weighted towards fees from assets under management, which are higher quality than net interest income.
Bank of America is being re-rated from a rate-sensitive legacy bank to a diversified financial engine, as record Net Interest Income is now complemented by a world-class wealth management franchise and a rebound in investment banking fees.
Filter all news through the lens of Net Interest Income (NII) trajectory, credit quality, and operating leverage.
NII guidance beats (reiterated 5-7% growth for 2026); loan growth acceleration; better-than-expected efficiency ratio improvements driven by AI/automation; significant capital return unlocked by potential easing of Basel III Endgame rules.
Faster-than-expected Fed rate cuts compressing NIM; significant increase in net charge-offs or provisions for credit losses, particularly in credit card or commercial real estate; expense growth outpacing revenue growth; significant fines or regulatory actions.
Minor adjustments to analyst price targets; short-term stock price fluctuations based on broad market sentiment; individual M&A or IPO announcements (look for the trend, not single deals); competitor's quarterly results unless they signal a major market share shift.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is sustained high Net Interest Income (NII) driven by a "higher-for-longer" interest rate environment, which allows BAC to reprice its massive fixed-rate asset portfolio. Management's guidance for 5-7% NII growth in 2026, even with anticipated rate cuts, is a key driver. A secondary catalyst is the potential for up to $20 billion in excess capital return (buybacks/dividends) if Basel III Endgame rules are relaxed in mid-2026.
Consumer Banking (Retail & Small Business)
$44.8B TTM (39% of Total) · 28% MarginWhat It Is
Checking & savings accounts, credit cards, mortgages, auto loans, and small business loans.
Who Pays & How
Serves ~69 million US consumer and small business clients. Customers pay through net interest margin on deposits and loans, and through fees. Lock-in is created by the high friction of moving primary banking relationships, direct deposit integration, and bundled products.
Competition
Global Wealth & Investment Management (Merrill)
$26.4B TTM (23% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Investment management, brokerage services, and wealth planning.
Who Pays & How
High-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth individuals ($250k+ investable assets). Clients pay asset-based fees for advice and management. The Merrill Lynch brand and deep advisor relationships create a strong lock-in effect.
Competition
Global Banking (Corporate & Commercial)
$24.0B TTM (21% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Corporate loans, treasury services, investment banking advisory (M&A), and debt/equity underwriting.
Who Pays & How
Large corporations (revenues >$2B) and middle-market companies ($50M - $2B). They pay interest on loans and fees for advisory and underwriting services. Deep, long-term relationships and integrated treasury solutions create significant switching costs.
Competition
Global Markets (Sales & Trading)
$20.8B TTM (18% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Market-making, financing, securities clearing, and risk management across fixed-income, currencies, commodities (FICC), and equities.
Who Pays & How
Institutional clients (hedge funds, asset managers, pensions). They pay through the bid-ask spread on trades and fees for financing and clearing.
Competition
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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