Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $85.395 | Market Cap: $9.3 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $85.395Market Cap: $9.3 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.4% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -35% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -97%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -100% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -118% | Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 9.3% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Private Credit, and Online Banking & Lending. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.4% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -118% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Private Credit, and Online Banking & Lending. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -35% |
| Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 9.3% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -97%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -100% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
WAL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Based on information available for Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL) for the period encompassing August 31, 2025, through December 4, 2025, several factors contributed to a negative sentiment and downward pressure on the stock price. While specific reporting for an exact -4.7% movement is not detailed, significant events and analyst concerns during this timeframe could explain such a decline.
1. Lawsuit Disclosure and Borrower Fraud Allegations: On October 16, 2025, Western Alliance Bancorp disclosed critical information regarding a lawsuit alleging borrower fraud. The lawsuit claimed that a borrower failed to provide collateral loans in the first position and forged title policies, raising significant concerns about the company's credit assessments and risk management strategies. This revelation caused the stock to plummet by 10.81% on that day, reflecting acute investor anxiety.
2. Analyst Downgrade by Wells Fargo: On September 29, 2025, Wells Fargo downgraded Western Alliance to an "Underweight" rating. The downgrade was based on the view that the stock's valuation was overestimating potential benefits from future interest rate reductions, and the analyst anticipated downside risks for the bank before 2026.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WAL Return | 8% | 82% | -44% | 14% | 30% | -0% | 63% |
| Peers Return | -19% | 33% | -18% | 16% | 36% | 28% | 78% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WAL Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 60% | 42% | 53% | 62% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WAL Max Drawdown | -61% | -2% | -47% | -69% | -15% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -51% | -4% | -29% | -17% | -5% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JPM, BAC, WFC, C, USB. See WAL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WAL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -85.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 574.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -62.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 162.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 267 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -40.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 744 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -91.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1068.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2172 days | 1480 days |
Compare to JPM, BAC, WFC, C, USB
In The Past
Western Alliance Bancorp's stock fell -85.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/3/2021. A -85.2% loss requires a 574.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to WAL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Western Alliance Bancorp
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 87.13 |
| Mkt Cap | 239.3 |
| Rev LTM | 83,888 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | -8,771 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,718 |
| CFO LTM | -8,724 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,772 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -42.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -12.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -42.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -12.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 239.3 |
| P/S | 3.0 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 12.6 |
| P/CFO | -2.8 |
| Total Yield | 8.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.3% |
| D/E | 0.9 |
| Net D/E | -0.9 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 19.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 20.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 85.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 4.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 4.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 9.5% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11032025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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