Verastem (VSTM)
Market Price (5/20/2026): $4.15 | Market Cap: $407.9 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Verastem (VSTM)
Market Price (5/20/2026): $4.15Market Cap: $407.9 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -24% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 396% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -61% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Oncology Treatments. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -109%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -92% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -171 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -345% Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -304%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -307% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -52% Key risksVSTM key risks include [1] the contingent accelerated approval of its AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -24% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 396% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -61% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Oncology Treatments. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -109%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -92% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -171 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -345% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -304%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -307% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -52% |
| Key risksVSTM key risks include [1] the contingent accelerated approval of its AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Verastem (VSTM) stock has lost about 30% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Discontinuation of RAMP 203 Clinical Trial.
Verastem discontinued the RAMP 203 clinical trial in advanced KRAS G12C-mutated non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) on January 9, 2026, a decision influenced by the evolving competitive landscape with next-generation G12C inhibitors. This strategic shift, announced just before the analysis period, removed a potential revenue stream and signaled a setback in a key pipeline asset. The stock experienced an initial after-hours drop of 2% following this announcement.
2. Q4 2025 Earnings Miss.
On March 4, 2026, Verastem reported its Q4 2025 earnings, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of -$0.50, which missed analysts' consensus estimates of -$0.49 by $0.01. This slight miss, despite a revenue beat, contributed to negative investor sentiment during the period.
Show more
1. Discontinuation of RAMP 203 Clinical Trial.
Verastem discontinued the RAMP 203 clinical trial in advanced KRAS G12C-mutated non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) on January 9, 2026, a decision influenced by the evolving competitive landscape with next-generation G12C inhibitors. This strategic shift, announced just before the analysis period, removed a potential revenue stream and signaled a setback in a key pipeline asset. The stock experienced an initial after-hours drop of 2% following this announcement.
2. Q4 2025 Earnings Miss.
On March 4, 2026, Verastem reported its Q4 2025 earnings, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of -$0.50, which missed analysts' consensus estimates of -$0.49 by $0.01. This slight miss, despite a revenue beat, contributed to negative investor sentiment during the period.
Show more
Holding a concentrated position? Know your true downside before the momentum shifts.
Protect Your Wealth →
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -32.0% change in VSTM stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -75.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.10 | 4.15 | -32.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 13 | 50 | 270.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 33.4 | 8.2 | -75.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 73 | 98 | -25.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -32.0% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VSTM | -32.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 6.3% | 40.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | -4.4% | 33.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -56.1% change in VSTM stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -97.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.45 | 4.15 | -56.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2 | 50 | 2220.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 292.5 | 8.2 | -97.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 66 | 98 | -32.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -56.1% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VSTM | -56.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.2% | 25.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 3.0% | 19.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -44.6% change in VSTM stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -77.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.49 | 4.15 | -44.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 10 | 50 | 395.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 36.6 | 8.2 | -77.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 49 | 98 | -50.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -44.6% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VSTM | -44.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 33.8% | 22.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 6.7% | 18.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.5% change in VSTM stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -82.7% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.69 | 4.15 | -11.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3 | 50 | 1810.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 30.8 | 8.2 | -73.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 17 | 98 | -82.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VSTM | -11.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 83.3% | 20.0% |
| Sector (XLV) | 16.0% | 14.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VSTM Return | -4% | -80% | 69% | -36% | 49% | -45% | -83% |
| Peers Return | -34% | -9% | 16% | -0% | 29% | 17% | 4% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VSTM Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 42% | 42% | 67% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 35% | 52% | 48% | 57% | 57% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VSTM Max Drawdown | -58% | -86% | -52% | -84% | -51% | -46% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -51% | -39% | -44% | -42% | -35% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: RVMD, KURA, BDTX, AMGN, BMY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/19/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VSTM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 7 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -19.4% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.1% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 36 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 54 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -44.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.3% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -23.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 8 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -21.3% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.1% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 98 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Verastem's stock fell -20.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 25.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | VSTM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 7 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 54 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -44.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.3% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -23.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 8 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -21.3% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.1% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 98 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -85.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 598.2% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 861 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -87.4% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 691.8% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 926 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Verastem's stock fell -20.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 25.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Verastem (VSTM)
Verastem, Inc., a development-stage biopharmaceutical company, focusing on developing and commercializing drugs for the treatment of cancer. Its product in development includes VS-6766, a dual rapidly accelerated fibrosarcoma (RAF)/mitogen-activated protein kinase (MEK) clamp that blocks MEK kinase activity and the ability of RAF to phosphorylate MEK. The company also engages in developing RAMP 201, an adaptive two-part multicenter, parallel cohort, randomized open label trial to evaluate the efficacy and safety of VS-6766 and in combination with defactinib, an oral small molecule inhibitor of focal adhesion kinase (FAK) in patients with recurrent low grade serous ovarian cancer; and RAMP 202, which is in Phase 2 trial to evaluate the safety of VS-6766 in combination with defactinib in patients with KRAS and BRAF mutant non-small cell lung cancer following treatment with a platinum-based regimen and immune checkpoint inhibitor. Verastem, Inc. has license agreements with Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. for the development, commercialization, and manufacture of products containing VS-6766; and Pfizer Inc. to research, develop, manufacture, and commercialize products containing Pfizer's inhibitors of FAK for therapeutic, diagnostic and prophylactic uses in humans. In addition, it has clinical collaboration agreement with Amgen, Inc. to evaluate the combination of VS-6766 with Amgen's KRAS-G12C inhibitor LUMAKRASTM which in Phase 1/2 trial entitled RAMP 203. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Needham, Massachusetts.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Verastem (VSTM):
- Verastem is like an early-stage Amgen or Genentech, entirely dedicated to discovering and developing new targeted therapies for cancer.
- Verastem is like a biotech startup aiming to develop breakthrough cancer drugs, similar to how Gilead Sciences became known for its innovative antiviral treatments.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- VS-6766: A dual RAF/MEK clamp designed to block MEK kinase activity and the ability of RAF to phosphorylate MEK, developed for various cancer treatments.
- Defactinib: An oral small molecule inhibitor of focal adhesion kinase (FAK), often investigated in combination with VS-6766 for specific cancer indications.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Verastem (VSTM) is a development-stage biopharmaceutical company. As such, it does not currently sell commercialized drugs directly to individuals or healthcare providers. Its primary "customers" or revenue-generating partners are other pharmaceutical companies with whom it enters into licensing and collaboration agreements for its investigational compounds.
Based on the provided information, Verastem's major partners and sources of financial and strategic support are:
- Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (publicly traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange: TSE: 4519)
- Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE)
- Amgen, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (TYO: 4519)
- Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE)
- Amgen, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Dan Paterson, President and Chief Executive Officer Mr. Paterson was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Verastem Oncology in 2023, following more than a decade of increasing leadership roles and responsibilities within the company since joining in 2011. He has over 30 years of experience across oncology drug and diagnostic development, business development, and launch planning. Before joining Verastem, Mr. Paterson was the co-founder and Chief Operating Officer of On-Q-ity, a company focused on developing technology to capture and analyze circulating tumor cells. He was also the founding Chief Executive Officer of The DNA Repair Company, which developed oncology-focused molecular diagnostics and later merged to form On-Q-ity. Additionally, he served as Head of Global Strategy for Specialty Market and Patient-Level Data at IMS Health, after playing a key role in the acquisition of PharMetrics by IMS Health. Dan Calkins, Chief Financial Officer Mr. Calkins was promoted to Chief Financial Officer of Verastem Oncology in October 2023, having steadily advanced within the company since joining in 2018. He has 14 years of finance and accounting experience and has been instrumental in supporting Verastem's strategic transformation. Prior to Verastem, Mr. Calkins was a Technical Accounting Consultant at CFGI, where he advised companies across various industries on complex technical accounting matters, financial reporting, IPO readiness, and internal controls. He began his career with the Assurance practice at PwC in Boston. Michael Kauffman, M.D., Ph.D., President of Development Dr. Kauffman joined Verastem Oncology as President of Development in December 2025, after serving as the company's Lead Director of its Board of Directors since June 2016. He co-founded and served as Chief Executive Officer of Karyopharm, where he guided the company's transition from a discovery-stage biotechnology company to a commercial-stage organization and achieved global approvals for XPOVIO®. Previously, he was also the Chief Executive Officer of Nereid Therapeutics. Dr. Kauffman also served as Chief Medical Officer of Onyx Pharma, where he led the development of Kyprolis® following Onyx's acquisition of Proteolix Inc., where he was a board member and Chief Medical Officer. His past experience also includes being President and Chief Executive Officer of EPIX Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (formerly Predix Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) and leading the Velcade® development program at Millennium Pharmaceuticals. Mike Crowther, Chief Commercial Officer Mr. Crowther joined Verastem Oncology in October 2023 and currently serves as the Chief Commercial Officer. He is an accomplished marketing and commercialization leader with over 20 years of experience, having launched more than 10 leading oncology therapies in multiple geographies. Before joining Verastem, Mr. Crowther was the Chief Business Officer at Minerva Biotechnologies. Prior to Minerva, he was the Interim U.S. Lead and Vice President of U.S. Marketing at Kite Pharma, and held positions of increasing responsibility within Global Marketing at Celgene. John Hayslip, M.D., Chief Medical Officer Dr. Hayslip joined Verastem Oncology as Chief Medical Officer in April 2024. He brings more than 25 years of oncology research and development experience across industry and academia. Most recently, Dr. Hayslip served as Chief Medical Officer at I-MAB Biopharma. Prior to that, he was the Vice President of Clinical Development at Nektar Therapeutics and led clinical development activities for multiple therapies while at AbbVie Oncology. Before his industry roles, Dr. Hayslip led numerous cancer research studies at the University of Kentucky's Markey Cancer Center, where he also served as Chief of Hematology and Bone Marrow Transplant and Director of Clinical Research and Data Management.AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Verastem's business, a development-stage biopharmaceutical company (VSTM), are primarily concentrated around the success of its drug pipeline and its financial viability.
- Clinical Trial Failure and Regulatory Approval: As a development-stage biopharmaceutical company, Verastem's success is critically dependent on its drug candidates, particularly VS-6766 (avutometinib) and its combinations, successfully completing clinical trials and receiving full regulatory approval. Drug development is an inherently high-stakes endeavor with high failure rates. Specifically, the company's approved product, AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK (which includes avutometinib), received accelerated approval. Its continued approval is contingent upon Verastem verifying the clinical benefit in an ongoing confirmatory trial, RAMP 301. If the results from this trial are not positive, the drug could be withdrawn from the market, representing the single biggest strategic risk. The long timelines for confirmatory data (RAMP 301 readout not expected until mid-2027) also introduce prolonged exposure to clinical and financing risks.
- Financial Health and Funding Risk: Verastem faces significant financial challenges, indicated by its categorization as having "poor financial strength" and a "distress-level Altman Z-Score." The company has reported negative shareholder equity and is described as a "high-burn, high-risk biotech play" with liabilities exceeding assets. Its cash reserves are projected to last only through the first half of 2027 under current assumptions, necessitating active assessment of non-dilutive financing and other capital options. Further equity raises may be required, which could lead to shareholder dilution. Despite initial revenue growth, the company faces substantial negative operating and net margins and ongoing profitability challenges.
- Reliance on a Limited Pipeline and Market Competition: Verastem's pipeline is largely concentrated around its RAF/MEK inhibitor VS-6766 (avutometinib) and its combinations for various cancers. While having multiple trials, the company's near-term commercial prospects and future growth are heavily tied to the success and broad adoption of AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK and the broader avutometinib pipeline. The oncology market, particularly for RAS/MAPK pathway-driven cancers, is highly competitive. Even if drugs receive regulatory approval, commercial success is not guaranteed due to factors such as intense competition, market acceptance, pricing pressures, and reimbursement policies, which can undermine a drug's performance.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
The addressable markets for Verastem's main products and services for the treatment of cancer are as follows:
- Recurrent Low-Grade Serous Ovarian Cancer (LGSOC): The global market size for low-grade serous ovarian carcinoma (LGSOC) across the top seven markets (US, EU4, UK, and Japan) was valued at approximately USD 191.5 million in 2024. This market is projected to reach USD 392.6 million by 2035, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.76% during 2025-2035. Specifically, the U.S. market for LGSOC was nearly USD 15 million in 2024.
-
KRAS and BRAF Mutant Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC):
- Overall Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Market: The global non-small cell lung cancer therapeutics market was estimated at USD 28.61 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 54.38 billion by 2032. North America held the largest market share in the NSCLC therapeutics industry, with the U.S. being a major contributor. The U.S. non-small cell lung cancer therapeutics market was valued at USD 4.97 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 16.82 billion by 2033.
- KRAS Mutant NSCLC: KRAS mutations are present in approximately 22-30% of non-small cell lung cancer cases. The global KRAS market, which includes NSCLC along with other cancer types, was valued at USD 476 million in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 3,894 million by 2035. Lung cancer is expected to dominate this market, capturing 92% of the market share by 2035. The global market size for KRAS inhibitors is calculated at USD 118.26 million in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 190.92 million by 2035.
- BRAF Mutant NSCLC: BRAF mutations are also an actionable target in NSCLC. While a specific market size solely for BRAF mutant NSCLC was not identified, the development of targeted therapies for BRAF V600E mutations, such as BRAFTOVI® + MEKTOVI®, has been approved for metastatic NSCLC. This market falls under the broader targeted therapy segment of the NSCLC market.
- KRAS-G12C Mutant NSCLC (in combination with Amgen's LUMAKRAS™): The KRAS G12C-mutated NSCLC subtype represents approximately 13% of adenocarcinoma cases. Adenocarcinoma is the most common type of NSCLC, accounting for about 40% of all lung cancer cases, and is projected to hold 40.6% of the global non-small cell lung cancer market share in 2025. The availability of drugs like sotorasib (Lumakras) for KRAS G12C mutations highlights a significant area in precision medicine.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Verastem (VSTM) over the next 2-3 years:- Continued U.S. Commercial Growth of AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK for KRAS-Mutated Low-Grade Serous Ovarian Cancer (LGSOC): Verastem received accelerated FDA approval for AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK (avutometinib plus defactinib) on May 8, 2025, for adult patients with recurrent KRAS-mutated LGSOC who have received prior systemic therapy. The company reported net product revenue of $11.2 million in its first full quarter of sales (Q3 2025), surpassing analyst expectations, and $17.5 million for Q4 2025. Total net product revenue for the full year 2025 was $30.9 million. Analysts anticipate substantial revenue growth in 2026, with a consensus around $114.1 million. Verastem is actively working to maximize the adoption of this therapy in the U.S. and projects the LGSOC commercial launch and development program to become self-sustaining by the second half of 2026.
- Geographic Expansion of AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK into Europe and Japan: Verastem is actively pursuing regulatory pathways for the potential expansion of AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK into European and Japanese markets. Encouraging preliminary data from the RAMP 201J trial in Japan, released in February 2026, showed a confirmed overall response rate (ORR) of 38% in recurrent LGSOC patients, with 57% in those with KRAS-mutated LGSOC. Successful regulatory approvals and subsequent commercial launches in these regions within the next 2-3 years would significantly contribute to revenue growth.
- Indication Expansion of AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK to Include KRAS Wild-Type LGSOC: While initial accelerated approval was for KRAS-mutated LGSOC, the ongoing international Phase 3 RAMP 301 trial is designed as a confirmatory study for the initial indication and holds the potential to expand the label to include LGSOC patients regardless of their KRAS mutation status. Topline results from the primary endpoint of the RAMP 301 trial are anticipated in mid-2027. A positive outcome from this trial and subsequent regulatory approval would considerably broaden the addressable patient population for AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK, driving further revenue growth.
- Advancement and Potential Commercialization of VS-7375 (KRAS G12D Inhibitor): Verastem is strategically prioritizing the clinical development of VS-7375, an oral KRAS G12D (ON/OFF) inhibitor, for various advanced solid tumors, including non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), and colorectal cancer (CRC). Early data showed a 69% response rate in advanced KRAS G12D NSCLC. The company expects an interim update on its Phase 1/2 trial in the first half of 2026 and plans to engage with the FDA in the same period to discuss the development path, including potential registration-directed clinical trials in these indications. Significant clinical progress and the initiation of late-stage trials for VS-7375 within the next 2-3 years could lead to milestone payments and position it for future commercial revenue.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Issuance
- Verastem announced a proposed underwritten public offering of common stock in November 2025 to fund commercial activities for AVMAPKI™ FAKZYNJA™ CO-PACK, continued clinical research and development, and general corporate purposes.
- A shelf registration statement on Form S-3, related to public offerings of securities, became effective on November 20, 2023.
- The company received $29.4 million in January 2026 from the exercise of outstanding cash warrants.
Inbound Investments
- Verastem recognized $10.0 million in revenue in 2024 from a sales milestone related to the sale of the COPIKTRA license and related assets.
- In January 2023, the company entered into a private placement agreement for the sale and issuance of Series B Convertible Preferred Stock.
- Verastem exercised its license for VS-7375 from GenFleet Therapeutics in January 2025, which gives it development and commercialization rights outside certain Asian markets.
Capital Expenditures
- Research & development expenses significantly increased to $114.6 million for the full year 2025, up from $81.3 million in 2024, primarily due to higher costs for contract research organizations, investigator fees, and drug substance and product manufacturing.
- Selling, general & administrative expenses rose to $81.1 million in 2025, compared to $43.6 million in 2024, largely driven by commercialization costs for the launch of AVMAPKI™ FAKZYNJA™ CO-PACK.
- The company projects its cash runway will extend into the first half of 2027, supported by existing cash, equity financing, and anticipated product revenue.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Verastem Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Is Verastem Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to VSTM.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | GEHC | GE HealthCare Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | IQV | IQVIA | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | UHS | Universal Health Services | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | ABT | Abbott Laboratories | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | ZBIO | Zenas BioPharma | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 33.64 |
| Mkt Cap | 15.0 |
| Rev LTM | 61 |
| Op Inc LTM | -108 |
| FCF LTM | -59 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -34 |
| CFO LTM | -56 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -32 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -43.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -31.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -158.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 5.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -40.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -47.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 15.0 |
| P/S | 6.5 |
| P/Op Inc | -2.4 |
| P/EBIT | -2.4 |
| P/E | -2.4 |
| P/CFO | -3.9 |
| Total Yield | -14.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -3.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -10.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 35.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 32.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -19.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 16.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -50.5% |
FDA Approved Drugs Data
Expand for More| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA219616 | AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK (COPACKAGED) | avutometinib potassium | capsule, tablet | 5082025 | -19.0% | 14.3% | -29.5% | -40.2% | -40.2% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business of researching, developing and commercializing drugs for the treatment of patients with | 10 | ||||
| Sale of COPIKTRA license and related assets | 1 | 70 | |||
| Transition services revenue | 1 | 0 | |||
| License and collaboration revenue | 3 | ||||
| Product revenue, net | 15 | ||||
| Total | 10 | 2 | 89 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business of researching, developing and commercializing drugs for the treatment of patients with | -131 | ||||
| Total | -131 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business of researching, developing and commercializing drugs for the treatment of patients with | 150 | 95 | |||
| Total | 150 | 95 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $4.15 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/27/2012 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -61.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $5.53 | $7.45 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | -24.9% | -44.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 68.6% | 81.2% |
| Downside Capture | 300.59 | 178.96 |
| Upside Capture | 89.68 | 56.48 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 35.8% | 22.1% |
VSTM Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.92 | 1.81 | 2.04 | 1.43 | 1.48 | 1.54 |
| Up Beta | 2.72 | 2.52 | 2.67 | 2.41 | 1.76 | 1.84 |
| Down Beta | 3.98 | 0.04 | 1.73 | 0.85 | 1.86 | 1.59 |
| Up Capture | 187% | 168% | 164% | 61% | 81% | 114% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 60 | 117 | 358 |
| Down Capture | 795% | 213% | 203% | 167% | 138% | 106% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 21 | 32 | 62 | 128 | 377 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VSTM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VSTM | -43.6% | 81.1% | -0.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 12.7% | 14.7% | 0.60 | 18.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 25.0% | 12.1% | 1.55 | 22.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 40.0% | 26.8% | 1.23 | 5.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 49.4% | 18.5% | 2.03 | -5.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 9.7% | 13.4% | 0.45 | 16.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -25.6% | 41.9% | -0.59 | 6.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VSTM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VSTM | -33.8% | 106.1% | 0.08 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 5.6% | 14.6% | 0.20 | 18.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.2% | 17.0% | 0.65 | 25.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.3% | 18.0% | 0.87 | 4.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.0% | 19.4% | 0.45 | 0.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.0% | 18.8% | 0.11 | 23.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.4% | 55.6% | 0.38 | 15.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VSTM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VSTM | -13.1% | 97.3% | 0.30 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.5% | 16.5% | 0.46 | 22.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 26.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.0% | 16.0% | 0.67 | 2.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.9% | 0.38 | 7.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 20.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.2% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 12.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/4/2026 | 7.8% | -0.3% | -2.4% |
| 11/4/2025 | -20.1% | -16.7% | 7.1% |
| 1/13/2025 | -6.8% | -7.0% | 0.2% |
| 2/2/2023 | 8.6% | 5.5% | -23.9% |
| 8/8/2022 | 7.6% | 6.7% | -3.4% |
| 3/28/2022 | 10.9% | 20.2% | 26.1% |
| 8/10/2020 | 0.0% | -0.7% | -25.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| # Negative | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| Median Positive | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% |
| Median Negative | -13.5% | -3.8% | -13.7% |
| Max Positive | 10.9% | 20.2% | 26.1% |
| Max Negative | -20.1% | -16.7% | -25.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/04/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/14/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/14/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/08/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paterson, Dan | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 5062026 | 5.82 | 806 | 4,691 | 3,562,498 | Form |
| 2 | Paterson, Dan | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2052026 | 6.69 | 970 | 6,489 | 4,100,428 | Form |
| 3 | Paterson, Dan | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 1142026 | 7.16 | 10,321 | 73,898 | 2,864,745 | Form |
| 4 | Calkins, Daniel | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 1142026 | 7.16 | 5,039 | 36,079 | 749,788 | Form |
| 5 | Calkins, Daniel | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12292025 | 7.86 | 80 | 629 | 862,698 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.