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Black Diamond Therapeutics (BDTX)


Market Price (12/15/2025): $2.81 | Market Cap: $160.0 Mil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

Black Diamond Therapeutics (BDTX)


Market Price (12/15/2025): $2.81
Market Cap: $160.0 Mil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.8%, FCF Yield is 9.9%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -4.5%
Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 146%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -54%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
 
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Personalized Diagnostics, and Biopharmaceutical R&D.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.8%, FCF Yield is 9.9%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -54%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Personalized Diagnostics, and Biopharmaceutical R&D.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -4.5%
5 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
6 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 146%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

BDTX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

For the period from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 15, 2025, Black Diamond Therapeutics (BDTX) experienced several key developments, including financial results and updates on its clinical programs, which influenced its stock movement.

1. Q3 2025 Financial Results and Silevertinib Clinical Update: On November 6, 2025, Black Diamond Therapeutics reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, including a net loss of $8.5 million and cash, cash equivalents, and investments of approximately $135.5 million, sufficient to fund operations into Q4 2027. The company also announced that it expects to disclose objective response rate (ORR) and preliminary duration of treatment (DOR) data from its silevertinib Phase 2 trial in non-classical EGFRm NSCLC patients later in Q4 2025. This news led to a +2.84% increase in BDTX stock on the day of publication.

2. Q2 2025 Financial Results and Clinical Program Updates: On August 7, 2025, Black Diamond Therapeutics reported its second-quarter 2025 financial results, with a net loss of $10.6 million and $142.8 million in cash and investments. The company also announced the completion of enrollment in the Phase 2 trial of silevertinib for frontline non-classical EGFRm NSCLC patients, with ORR and preliminary DOR data expected in Q4 2025. This announcement was associated with a significant negative market reaction, with BDTX declining 15.24% on the day.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
BDTX Return-83%-66%56%-24%29%
Peers Return-4%-17%24%2%53%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BDTX Win Rate64%25%25%50%42%67% 
Peers Win Rate50%53%53%60%50%63% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BDTX Max Drawdown-84%-76%-25%-24%-42% 
Peers Max Drawdown-26%-38%-29%-27%-29% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RVMD, INCY, EXEL, RLAY, IDYA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventBDTXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-96.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven2636.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-54.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven117.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven37 days148 days

Compare to VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN


In The Past

Black Diamond Therapeutics's stock fell -96.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/11/2021. A -96.3% loss requires a 2636.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Black Diamond Therapeutics (BDTX)

Better Bets than Black Diamond Therapeutics (BDTX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to BDTX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.1%-5.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.0%9.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.3%2.3%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.0%16.0%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.1%-5.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.0%9.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.3%2.3%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.0%16.0%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Black Diamond Therapeutics

Peers to compare with:

Financials

BDTXRVMDINCYEXELRLAYIDYAMedian
NameBlack Di.Revoluti.Incyte Exelixis Relay Th.IDEAYA B. 
Mkt Price2.7978.9295.4140.888.0334.0237.45
Mkt Cap0.214.918.711.01.43.07.0
Rev LTM7004,8132,2888215142
Op Inc LTM12-1,0371,256820-327-209-99
FCF LTM21-7771,172744-249-105-42
FCF 3Y Avg-38-543585428-269-125-82
CFO LTM21-7621,251791-248-102-40
CFO 3Y Avg-38-531662553-266-122-80

Growth & Margins

BDTXRVMDINCYEXELRLAYIDYAMedian
NameBlack Di.Revoluti.Incyte Exelixis Relay Th.IDEAYA B. 
Rev Chg LTM--100.0%18.1%9.9%-16.5%5,377.7%9.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--69.5%13.1%11.8%448.1%1,747.2%13.1%
Rev Chg Q--20.0%10.8%--15.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.0%-5.0%2.6%0.0%2,969.1%2.6%
Op Mgn LTM16.9%-26.1%35.8%-3,914.4%-97.2%16.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg--13.8%22.5%-3,096.7%-2,111.5%-1,048.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM10.2%-4.4%2.1%191.2%5,391.7%10.2%
CFO/Rev LTM30.5%-26.0%34.6%-2,973.4%-47.6%26.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg--15.3%26.5%-2,271.9%-1,451.0%-717.8%
FCF/Rev LTM30.5%-24.4%32.5%-2,978.3%-49.1%24.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg--13.5%19.8%-2,288.8%-1,484.2%-735.4%

Valuation

BDTXRVMDINCYEXELRLAYIDYAMedian
NameBlack Di.Revoluti.Incyte Exelixis Relay Th.IDEAYA B. 
Mkt Cap0.214.918.711.01.43.07.0
P/S2.3-3.44.8107.711.24.8
P/EBIT18.2-8.210.413.5-2.8-11.53.8
P/E7.4-9.214.016.4-3.0-15.12.2
P/CFO7.4-11.613.314.0-3.6-23.61.9
Total Yield13.5%-10.9%7.2%6.1%-33.1%-6.6%-0.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-22.0%-8.7%3.9%4.7%-27.6%-5.7%-7.2%
D/E0.10.00.00.00.00.00.0
Net D/E-0.5-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.6-0.3-0.3

Returns

BDTXRVMDINCYEXELRLAYIDYAMedian
NameBlack Di.Revoluti.Incyte Exelixis Relay Th.IDEAYA B. 
1M Rtn-30.4%16.5%-8.4%-1.8%27.7%5.8%2.0%
3M Rtn-14.2%69.5%14.8%4.4%101.3%38.2%26.5%
6M Rtn20.8%94.4%40.8%-1.7%149.4%53.4%47.1%
12M Rtn9.0%75.3%39.2%16.7%70.5%35.1%37.1%
3Y Rtn86.0%228.7%16.0%158.7%-53.2%101.5%93.8%
1M Excs Rtn-42.4%20.2%-11.5%-5.9%30.5%6.8%0.5%
3M Excs Rtn-15.7%67.6%11.6%1.6%94.6%35.5%23.5%
6M Excs Rtn6.6%80.2%26.6%-15.9%135.2%39.2%32.9%
12M Excs Rtn1.2%53.8%18.5%2.9%68.1%9.4%13.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-4.5%153.2%-60.0%76.5%-127.5%19.6%7.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Development of MasterKey therapies that target families of oncogenic mutations in patients with159156248330158
Total159156248330158


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,123,148
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-3.7%
Average Daily Volume1,035,658
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.91
Basic Shares Quantity56,929,103
Short % of Basic Shares10.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/20252.8%25.8%-28.9%
8/7/2025-15.2%3.0%9.3%
3/6/2025-1.1%-13.2%-26.3%
11/5/20248.7%13.0%-17.7%
8/6/2024-5.6%-11.7%6.0%
3/12/2024-5.5%17.5%24.5%
11/6/20230.5%-6.3%19.5%
8/11/2023-2.3%-9.7%2.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111110
# Negative778
Median Positive2.8%6.6%9.6%
Median Negative-5.5%-9.1%-22.6%
Max Positive9.6%25.8%47.6%
Max Negative-15.2%-13.2%-28.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025512202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024306202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241105202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023312202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231106202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023811202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022309202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022511202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021317202210-K 12/31/2021