Vital Farms (VITL)
Market Price (5/17/2026): $8.59 | Market Cap: $383.0 MilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Agricultural Products & Services
Vital Farms (VITL)
Market Price (5/17/2026): $8.59Market Cap: $383.0 MilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Agricultural Products & Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.5% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -74% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Sustainable Consumption, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -119%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -126% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 38x Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11% Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 32% Key risksVITL key risks include [1] the vulnerability of its premium pricing model, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.5% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -74% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Sustainable Consumption, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -119%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -126% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 38x |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 32% |
| Key risksVITL key risks include [1] the vulnerability of its premium pricing model, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Significant Q1 2026 Earnings Miss and Negative Profitability. Vital Farms reported a net loss of $1.5 million for the first quarter ended March 29, 2026, a substantial decline from a net income of $16.9 million in the prior-year quarter. The Net Loss per Diluted Share of $0.03 fell considerably short of analysts' consensus estimates, which ranged from a forecasted $0.09 to $0.16. This earnings disappointment immediately led to a 25.83% drop in the stock price in pre-market trading to $8.99. While net revenue increased 15.4% to $187.2 million, gross margin significantly contracted to 28.3% from 38.5% in Q1 2025.
2. Drastically Lowered Full-Year 2026 Financial Guidance. The company revised its fiscal year 2026 outlook downward, adjusting net revenue expectations to $775 million to $800 million, a considerable reduction from the previously guided $900 million to $920 million. More critically, Vital Farms slashed its Adjusted EBITDA outlook to $0 million to $10 million for the full year, a dramatic decrease from the earlier projection of $105 million to $115 million. This revised guidance reflects a much weaker profitability forecast and significantly impacted investor confidence.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -70.2% change in VITL stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -62.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 28.45 | 8.48 | -70.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 712 | 784 | 10.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.5% | 6.1% | -28.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.0 | 7.9 | -62.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 45 | 45 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -70.2% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VITL | -70.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.1% | 5.6% |
| Sector (XLP) | 1.9% | 13.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -74.2% change in VITL stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -72.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 32.85 | 8.48 | -74.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 658 | 784 | 19.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.8% | 6.1% | -22.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 28.4 | 7.9 | -72.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 45 | 45 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -74.2% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VITL | -74.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.0% | 1.0% |
| Sector (XLP) | 12.5% | 14.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -75.2% change in VITL stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -71.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 34.24 | 8.48 | -75.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 606 | 784 | 29.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.8% | 6.1% | -30.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 28.1 | 7.9 | -71.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 44 | 45 | -1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -75.2% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VITL | -75.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 34.8% | 5.9% |
| Sector (XLP) | 6.3% | 14.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -34.2% change in VITL stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -98.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 12.88 | 8.48 | -34.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 362 | 784 | 116.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.3% | 6.1% | 1665.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 419.4 | 7.9 | -98.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 41 | 45 | -8.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -34.2% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VITL | -34.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 84.7% | 16.8% |
| Sector (XLP) | 18.6% | 13.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VITL Return | -29% | -17% | 5% | 140% | -15% | -73% | -66% |
| Peers Return | 49% | -0% | 23% | 72% | -23% | 9% | 163% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VITL Win Rate | 42% | 42% | 42% | 58% | 33% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 52% | 53% | 65% | 45% | 64% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VITL Max Drawdown | -45% | -57% | -42% | -40% | -42% | -74% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -40% | -39% | -37% | -49% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CALM, HAIN, SFM, UNFI, LWAY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/15/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VITL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -32.7% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.7% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 364 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -28.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.3% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 168 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -55.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 124.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 614 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Vital Farms's stock fell -17.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 20.7% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | VITL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -32.7% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.7% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 364 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -28.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.3% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 168 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -55.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 124.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 614 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Vital Farms's stock fell -17.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 20.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Vital Farms (VITL)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Vital Farms (VITL):
- Stonyfield Farms for eggs and butter.
- Patagonia for the food aisle.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Shell eggs: Fresh eggs from pasture-raised hens.
- Butter: Dairy butter made from pasture-raised cow's milk.
- Hard-boiled eggs: Convenient pre-cooked eggs.
- Ghee: Clarified butter product.
- Liquid whole eggs: Pasteurized liquid egg product for cooking and baking.
- Egg bite products: Small, pre-portioned egg-based snacks.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Vital Farms primarily sells its products to other companies, specifically major retail chains and grocery stores across the United States. While their products ultimately reach individual consumers, their direct major customers are the retailers that stock their items.
Based on recent company filings, the following are identified as Vital Farms' major customers:
- The Kroger Co. (Symbol: KR)
- Walmart Inc. (Symbol: WMT)
- Target Corporation (Symbol: TGT)
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Russell Diez-Canseco Executive Chairperson, President and Chief Executive Officer
Russell Diez-Canseco joined Vital Farms in 2014, becoming CEO in May 2019, and was appointed Executive Chairperson on February 26, 2026. He previously served as President and COO from November 2015 to April 2019, COO from October 2014 to October 2015, and Vice President of Operations from January 2014 to September 2014. Under his leadership as CEO, Vital Farms completed a successful public offering in July 2020. Prior to Vital Farms, he gained experience with McKinsey & Company, H-E-B Grocery, and the Central Intelligence Agency. He holds an M.B.A. from Harvard Business School and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
Thilo Wrede Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting Officer & Principal Accounting Officer
Thilo Wrede joined Vital Farms as Chief Financial Officer on or about March 15, 2023. In this role, he oversees the company's accounting, treasury, financial planning and analysis, information technology, and investor relations functions. Before joining Vital Farms, Wrede served as Global Chief Financial Officer at Sabra Dipping Company, LLC, and as CFO for PepsiCo's Central and South America Foods division. He also has extensive experience as an equity research analyst on Wall Street, having worked at Credit Suisse and Jefferies & Company.
Pete Pappas Chief Sales Officer and President, Eggs
Pete Pappas joined Vital Farms in 2020. His role expanded in January 2025 to include overseeing the entire eggs business, which involves a network of over 425 family farms. He has been critical in scaling the sales team and expanding the availability of Vital Farms' products in approximately 24,000 stores nationwide. His prior career experience includes roles at PepsiCo, SABMiller, Dean Foods, and Advantage Solutions.
Kathryn McKeon Chief Marketing Officer and General Manager, Butter
Kathryn McKeon joined Vital Farms in 2016. In January 2025, her role expanded to lead the growing butter business alongside her marketing responsibilities. She has been instrumental in developing the Vital Farms brand into a national leader in ethical products through initiatives such as the Effie-award winning "Bullsh*t Free" campaign and the Transparency product feature.
Joanne Bal General Counsel, Corporate Secretary & Head of Impact
Joanne Bal leads Vital Farms' legal and impact strategy. Her previous professional experience includes several years with Levi Strauss & Co, Applied Materials, other technology companies, and private legal practice. She is driven by Vital Farms' mission and its commitment to the long-term sustainability of all stakeholders, including people, animals, and the planet.
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Key Risks to Vital Farms (VITL):
- High Dependence on Shell Eggs and Risk of Agricultural Diseases: Vital Farms is highly reliant on shell eggs, which constituted the vast majority of its revenue (93% in 2024 and approximately 96% in 2024), making the company susceptible to fluctuations in the shell egg market. Outbreaks of agricultural diseases, such as avian influenza (HPAI) and egg drop syndrome (EDS), pose a significant risk that could reduce the supply of their products.
- Operational Risks and Execution of Expansion Plans: The company faces operational risks related to the execution of its substantial capital expansion plans, including increasing its processing and production capacity with new facilities like a second "Egg Central Station." These expansion efforts introduce a major operational risk and could lead to margin compression, particularly as the business scales and new systems, such as an enterprise resource planning (ERP) system, are implemented. Recent weaker-than-expected quarterly earnings and associated securities investigations have also highlighted concerns regarding execution risk and margin pressures.
- Competitive Market, Premium Pricing Sensitivity, and Narrative Risk: Vital Farms operates in a highly competitive food industry, facing challenges in differentiating its products and maintaining its competitive advantage. Its premium pricing for pasture-raised eggs and other products could make it vulnerable to decreased sales during periods of economic downturn or shifts in consumer spending. Additionally, as a brand built on ethical sourcing and conscious capitalism, Vital Farms is exposed to "narrative risk," where negative perceptions, such as those spread through internet memes, could potentially impact its brand reputation.
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The accelerating trend and technological advancements in plant-based alternatives for eggs and dairy pose a clear emerging threat to Vital Farms. As plant-based alternatives continue to improve in taste, texture, nutritional profile, and price competitiveness, they offer consumers an alternative that often aligns with or surpasses the ethical and sustainability values that Vital Farms emphasizes, potentially eroding market share in the premium food segment.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The addressable markets for Vital Farms' main products and services in the United States are substantial, driven by increasing consumer demand for ethically produced and natural foods.
U.S. Market Sizes for Vital Farms' Main Products:
- Pasture-Raised Shell Eggs: The U.S. retail market for pasture-raised eggs was approximately $428.0 million in retail sales for the 52 weeks ended December 25, 2022. More broadly, the U.S. specialty egg market, which includes pasture-raised, free-range, and cage-free eggs, accounted for about $1.7 billion in retail sales during the same period. The overall U.S. egg market size was estimated at USD 51.70 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 84.60 billion by 2033.
- Butter: The U.S. butter market generated a revenue of USD 5,889.1 million in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 7,716.1 million by 2033.
- Ghee: The U.S. ghee market size reached USD 13,772.07 million in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 22,836.59 million by 2033.
- Liquid Whole Eggs: The global liquid egg market was valued at USD 4.9 billion in 2024. North America accounts for approximately 43% of the global liquid egg market share. The United States is projected to hold a significant 44.5% share of the North American liquid egg market in 2024, indicating a U.S. market size of approximately $0.938 billion for liquid eggs. Alternatively, within the broader U.S. egg and egg products market, valued at USD 4583.02 million in 2024, liquid eggs are estimated to hold a 55% share in 2026, suggesting a market size of approximately $2.5 billion for liquid eggs in the U.S.
- Hard-Boiled Eggs and Egg Bites: These products fall under the larger processed egg market. Vital Farms estimates that the U.S. processed egg market accounted for approximately $3.3 billion in retail sales as of December 2021. The broader U.S. egg and egg products market was valued at USD 4583.02 million in 2024.
Additionally, the overarching ethical food market, which aligns with Vital Farms' mission, is projected to reach $195 billion by 2029.
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Vital Farms (VITL) anticipates several key drivers for its future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, primarily focusing on expanding capacity, reaching more consumers, and optimizing its product offerings.
- Increased Production Capacity and Supply Chain Expansion: Vital Farms is making significant investments to boost its production capabilities. This includes the installation of new production equipment at its Egg Central Station (ECS) facility in Springfield, Missouri, expected to be fully operational by Q4 2025, which will increase capacity by an estimated 30%. Additionally, the company is constructing a second egg processing facility, "Vital Crossroads," in Seymour, Indiana. This new facility is projected to be operational in early 2027 and is designed to generate over $350 million in additional revenue capacity. These expansions are crucial for meeting rising consumer demand and supporting overall volume growth.
- Expanded Distribution and Increased Household Penetration: The company is focused on expanding its presence in the market by reaching new retailers and increasing the number of product offerings (SKUs) available at its existing retail partners. Management expects to drive household penetration through promotional spending, rather than relying on price increases, especially in 2026, aiming to convert growing consumer awareness into increased purchases.
- Growth of the Family Farm Network: To support its increased production capacity and meet demand, Vital Farms is actively expanding its network of family farms. The company surpassed 600 family farms by the end of 2025, up from 300 at the end of 2023, and aims to continue recruiting more farms. This expansion ensures a robust supply chain for its pasture-raised products.
- Volume-Led Growth and Favorable Product Mix: While price increases contributed to revenue growth in prior years, Vital Farms' forward guidance emphasizes volume growth as the primary driver for 2026. The company continues to see strong demand for higher-priced SKUs, particularly organic eggs and 18-count packs. Organic eggs, which constitute over a third of the company's volume, contribute to a higher revenue per unit, thus favorably impacting the overall product mix and revenue.
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Share Repurchases
- Vital Farms' board authorized a two-year stock repurchase program of up to $100 million, announced on February 26, 2026.
- This repurchase program is intended to be funded by existing cash, future cash flow from operations, and potentially through existing debt capacity.
- As of February 20, 2026, there were no reported dollar amounts of actual share repurchases made by Vital Farms.
Share Issuance
- There is no information available regarding significant primary share issuances by Vital Farms for capital raising purposes over the last 3-5 years.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures totaled $82.0 million for fiscal year 2025, a significant increase from $28.6 million in fiscal year 2024.
- Expected capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 are projected to be between $140 million and $150 million.
- The primary focus of these capital expenditures is the construction of "Vital Crossroads," a new facility in Seymour, Indiana, aimed at providing long-term capacity to support the company's target of $2 billion in net revenue by 2030, along with investments in expanding Egg Central Station, accelerator farms, and a Digital Transformation project.
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Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 37.39 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.7 |
| Rev LTM | 2,458 |
| Op Inc LTM | 117 |
| FCF LTM | 202 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 114 |
| CFO LTM | 321 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 261 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 0.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 9.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 66.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.7 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 8.9 |
| P/EBIT | 8.8 |
| P/E | 6.6 |
| P/CFO | 8.9 |
| Total Yield | 5.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -4.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -34.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 86.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -13.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -55.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 9.4% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $8.48 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/31/2020 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -83.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $13.27 | $30.30 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -36.1% | -72.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 73.4% | 59.6% |
| Downside Capture | 396.63 | 117.60 |
| Upside Capture | -169.93 | -87.24 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 7.9% | 4.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.85 | -0.10 | -0.03 | -0.05 | 0.20 | 0.61 |
| Up Beta | 0.03 | 0.29 | 0.40 | 0.13 | 0.46 | 0.35 |
| Down Beta | -1.68 | 1.45 | 0.67 | 0.37 | 0.97 | 0.71 |
| Up Capture | -59% | -152% | -134% | -89% | -35% | 34% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 16 | 25 | 52 | 117 | 383 |
| Down Capture | -707% | 81% | 126% | 95% | 54% | 93% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 37 | 70 | 130 | 358 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VITL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VITL | -74.1% | 59.7% | -2.04 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 9.4% | 12.6% | 0.44 | 15.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 27.4% | 12.1% | 1.71 | 5.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 42.5% | 26.8% | 1.30 | -6.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 45.4% | 18.5% | 1.88 | -3.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.5% | 13.5% | 0.56 | 13.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -23.7% | 41.8% | -0.54 | 4.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VITL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VITL | -15.4% | 53.8% | -0.11 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 6.3% | 13.2% | 0.26 | 15.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.6% | 17.1% | 0.63 | 23.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.4% | 17.9% | 0.88 | 1.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.9% | 19.4% | 0.45 | 2.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.9% | 18.8% | 0.06 | 20.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.2% | 55.9% | 0.34 | 10.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VITL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VITL | -13.0% | 53.6% | -0.25 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.6% | 14.7% | 0.38 | 13.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 23.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.0% | 16.0% | 0.67 | 2.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 17.9% | 0.38 | 3.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 18.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 10.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -20.7% | -30.6% | |
| 2/26/2026 | -10.8% | -19.3% | -47.5% |
| 11/4/2025 | 16.1% | 2.5% | -2.2% |
| 8/7/2025 | 17.6% | 28.0% | 37.1% |
| 5/8/2025 | -9.3% | -6.2% | -14.0% |
| 2/27/2025 | -9.1% | -9.1% | -10.7% |
| 8/8/2024 | -9.3% | -9.0% | -15.7% |
| 3/7/2024 | 4.7% | 10.4% | 33.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 10 |
| # Negative | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 5.9% | 10.4% | 11.0% |
| Median Negative | -9.3% | -9.1% | -10.7% |
| Max Positive | 25.9% | 28.0% | 37.1% |
| Max Negative | -20.7% | -30.6% | -47.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/07/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/09/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net Revenue | 775.00 Mil | 787.50 Mil | 800.00 Mil | -13.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 910.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 0 | 5.00 Mil | 10.00 Mil | -95.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 110.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 70.00 Mil | 72.50 Mil | 75.00 Mil | -50.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 145.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net Revenue | 900.00 Mil | 910.00 Mil | 920.00 Mil | 17.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 775.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 19.0% | 20.5% | 22.0% | -26.8% | -7.5% | Lower New | Guidance: 28.0% for 2025 |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 105.00 Mil | 110.00 Mil | 115.00 Mil | -4.4% | Lower New | Guidance: 115.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 140.00 Mil | 145.00 Mil | 150.00 Mil | 61.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 90.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Post, Denny Marie | Direct | Buy | 5152026 | 8.23 | 3,000 | 24,690 | 158,938 | Form | |
| 2 | Khoury, Karl | Direct | Buy | 3112026 | 18.45 | 5,000 | 92,250 | 2,210,107 | Form | |
| 3 | Cyr, William B | Direct | Buy | 3042026 | 20.70 | 4,750 | 98,325 | 161,336 | Form | |
| 4 | Ohayer, Matthew | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 20.33 | 20,000 | 406,600 | 128,509,793 | Form | |
| 5 | Ohayer, Matthew | EXECUTIVE CHAIRPERSON | Direct | Sell | 2042026 | 27.91 | 20,000 | 558,136 | 176,962,321 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Agricultural Products & Services Resources |
| AgFunder Network Partners |
| The Packer |
| CropLife |
| Agri-Pulse |
| USDA Data |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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