Vital Farms (VITL)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $33.29 | Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Agricultural Products & Services
Vital Farms (VITL)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $33.29Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Agricultural Products & Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 20% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 43x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Sustainable Consumption, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.7% | |
| Key risksVITL key risks include [1] the vulnerability of its premium pricing model, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Sustainable Consumption, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 20% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 43x |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.7% |
| Key risksVITL key risks include [1] the vulnerability of its premium pricing model, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
VITL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Vital Farms (VITL) experienced a notable decline in its stock price, with key factors contributing to this movement concentrated in the latter part of the requested period.
1. Vital Farms revised its fiscal year 2025 net revenue outlook downwards. The company adjusted its net revenue guidance to a range of $755 million to $765 million, a reduction from its previous expectation of at least $775 million.
2. The lowered revenue forecast was primarily attributed to operational disruptions caused by an Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system transition. This new ordering system led to temporary disruptions in order patterns during the beginning of the fourth quarter.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VITL Return | � | -29% | -17% | 5% | 140% | -15% | � |
| Peers Return | 99% | 44% | -0% | -12% | 63% | -32% | 179% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VITL Win Rate | 40% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 58% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 47% | 50% | 52% | 65% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VITL Max Drawdown | � | -35% | -55% | -31% | -8% | -22% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -14% | -31% | -39% | -22% | -44% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CALM, HAIN, STKL, SFM, UNFI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VITL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -72.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 265.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 679 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -40.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,261 days | 148 days |
Compare to BG, DAR, LMNR, AFRI, AGRZ
In The Past
Vital Farms's stock fell -72.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/22/2021. A -72.6% loss requires a 265.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to VITL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.8% | -5.8% | -7.5% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 14.0% | 14.0% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.5% | 7.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.8% | -5.8% | -7.5% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 14.0% | 14.0% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.5% | 7.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Vital Farms
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 32.96 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.9 |
| Rev LTM | 2,966 |
| Op Inc LTM | 108 |
| FCF LTM | 189 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 140 |
| CFO LTM | 305 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 295 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.9 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/EBIT | 15.7 |
| P/E | 1.7 |
| P/CFO | 8.0 |
| Total Yield | 1.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -22.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -20.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -28.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 32.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -26.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -32.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -40.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -33.7% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | 16.1% | 2.5% | -2.2% |
| 8/7/2025 | 17.6% | 28.0% | 37.1% |
| 5/8/2025 | -9.3% | -6.2% | -14.0% |
| 2/27/2025 | -9.1% | -9.1% | -10.7% |
| 8/8/2024 | -9.3% | -9.0% | -15.7% |
| 3/7/2024 | 4.7% | 10.4% | 33.8% |
| 11/2/2023 | 1.0% | 3.3% | 22.6% |
| 8/3/2023 | 25.9% | 10.6% | 11.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 10 |
| # Negative | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 5.9% | 10.4% | 11.0% |
| Median Negative | -9.1% | -9.0% | -7.9% |
| Max Positive | 25.9% | 28.0% | 37.1% |
| Max Negative | -9.3% | -15.9% | -15.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/28/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/29/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/29/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3072024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/24/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/25/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/26/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3092023 | 10-K 12/25/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/25/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/26/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/27/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3102022 | 10-K 12/26/2021 |
Industry Resources
| Agricultural Products & Services Resources |
| AgFunder Network Partners |
| The Packer |
| CropLife |
| Agri-Pulse |
| USDA Data |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |