Tearsheet

Vital Farms (VITL)


Market Price (12/20/2025): $33.3 | Market Cap: $1.5 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Agricultural Products & Services

Vital Farms (VITL)


Market Price (12/20/2025): $33.3
Market Cap: $1.5 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Agricultural Products & Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 20%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 35x
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Sustainable Consumption, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more.
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.7%
2   Key risks
VITL key risks include [1] the vulnerability of its premium pricing model, Show more.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Sustainable Consumption, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more.
2 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 20%
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 35x
4 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.7%
5 Key risks
VITL key risks include [1] the vulnerability of its premium pricing model, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

VITL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Vital Farms (VITL) stock moved by -34.7% from August 31, 2025, to December 20, 2025:

1. Lowered Fiscal Year 2025 Revenue Guidance: On December 16, 2025, Vital Farms revised its full-year 2025 net revenue guidance downward to a range of $755 million to $765 million, a decrease from its previous expectation of at least $775 million.

2. Disruption from ERP System Transition: The primary cause cited for the reduced fiscal year 2025 revenue outlook was temporary disruptions in order patterns that followed the implementation of the company's new enterprise resource planning (ERP) system at the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2025.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
VITL Return-29%-17%5%140%-14%
Peers Return99%44%-0%-12%63%-31%181%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
VITL Win Rate40%42%42%42%58%33% 
Peers Win Rate52%47%50%52%65%47% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
VITL Max Drawdown-35%-55%-31%-8%-22% 
Peers Max Drawdown-32%-14%-31%-39%-22%-44% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CALM, HAIN, STKL, SFM, UNFI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventVITLS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-72.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven265.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven679 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-40.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven67.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,261 days148 days

Compare to BG, DAR, LMNR, AFRI, AGRZ


In The Past

Vital Farms's stock fell -72.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/22/2021. A -72.6% loss requires a 265.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Vital Farms (VITL)

Better Bets than Vital Farms (VITL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to VITL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.9%-0.9%-0.9%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.3%10.3%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.8%5.8%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.2%-5.2%-5.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.9%-0.9%-0.9%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.3%10.3%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.8%5.8%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.2%-5.2%-5.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Vital Farms

Peers to compare with:

Financials

VITLCALMHAINSTKLSFMUNFIMedian
NameVital Fa.Cal-Main.Hain Cel.SunOpta Sprouts .United N. 
Mkt Price33.3885.701.183.7181.6333.5933.48
Mkt Cap1.54.10.10.48.02.01.8
Rev LTM7124,3991,5337928,65431,7532,966
Op Inc LTM801,6004933678137108
FCF LTM-191,215-034458344189
FCF 3Y Avg1772739-1359241140
CFO LTM431,3862467702542305
CFO 3Y Avg468826742584524295

Growth & Margins

VITLCALMHAINSTKLSFMUNFIMedian
NameVital Fa.Cal-Main.Hain Cel.SunOpta Sprouts .United N. 
Rev Chg LTM23.6%65.8%-10.1%11.9%16.6%1.5%14.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg29.4%31.8%-6.5%15.4%11.1%2.5%13.3%
Rev Chg Q37.2%17.4%-6.8%16.8%13.1%-0.4%14.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM8.2%3.2%-1.7%3.9%3.0%-0.1%3.1%
Op Mgn LTM11.2%36.4%3.2%4.2%7.8%0.4%6.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg9.3%27.4%4.4%2.4%6.7%0.3%5.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.9%0.3%-0.4%0.9%0.2%0.1%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM6.0%31.5%1.6%8.5%8.1%1.7%7.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg7.9%25.4%3.9%5.9%7.6%1.7%6.8%
FCF/Rev LTM-2.7%27.6%-0.0%4.3%5.3%1.1%2.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg3.3%20.6%2.2%-0.5%4.7%0.8%2.8%

Valuation

VITLCALMHAINSTKLSFMUNFIMedian
NameVital Fa.Cal-Main.Hain Cel.SunOpta Sprouts .United N. 
Mkt Cap1.54.10.10.48.02.01.8
P/S2.10.90.10.60.90.10.7
P/EBIT17.82.5-0.214.411.8-679.67.1
P/E24.73.3-0.2349.815.5-20.29.4
P/CFO34.93.04.46.511.43.85.4
Total Yield4.1%40.5%-499.0%0.3%6.4%-5.0%2.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%9.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.7%20.6%4.6%-1.1%4.5%19.7%4.5%
D/E0.00.07.30.90.21.70.6
Net D/E-0.1-0.36.90.90.21.70.5

Returns

VITLCALMHAINSTKLSFMUNFIMedian
NameVital Fa.Cal-Main.Hain Cel.SunOpta Sprouts .United N. 
1M Rtn2.9%-2.2%-1.7%4.5%-0.2%-5.1%-0.9%
3M Rtn-24.8%-12.9%-22.9%-40.4%-32.2%12.8%-23.9%
6M Rtn-7.9%-12.8%-25.8%-38.1%-50.8%57.0%-19.3%
12M Rtn-13.8%-10.3%-82.0%-50.5%-39.4%28.2%-26.6%
3Y Rtn122.7%70.4%-92.3%-53.6%145.1%-14.0%28.2%
1M Excs Rtn0.0%-5.1%-4.6%1.6%-3.1%-8.0%-3.8%
3M Excs Rtn-26.8%-14.6%-30.6%-41.3%-33.8%14.2%-28.7%
6M Excs Rtn-21.0%-25.8%-40.6%-50.9%-66.3%36.1%-33.2%
12M Excs Rtn-27.0%-25.2%-97.0%-65.8%-54.1%6.4%-40.5%
3Y Excs Rtn48.5%15.1%-164.3%-125.4%68.6%-88.6%-36.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Eggs and egg-related products449339240197129
Butter and butter-related products2323211812
Total472362261214141


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8,779,676
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-9.6%
Average Daily Volume1,259,359
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.97
Basic Shares Quantity44,721,206
Short % of Basic Shares19.6%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/4/202516.1%2.5%-2.2%
8/7/202517.6%28.0%37.1%
5/8/2025-9.3%-6.2%-14.0%
2/27/2025-9.1%-9.1%-10.7%
8/8/2024-9.3%-9.0%-15.7%
3/7/20244.7%10.4%33.8%
11/2/20231.0%3.3%22.6%
8/3/202325.9%10.6%11.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111110
# Negative556
Median Positive5.9%10.4%11.0%
Median Negative-9.1%-9.0%-7.9%
Max Positive25.9%28.0%37.1%
Max Negative-9.3%-15.9%-15.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/28/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/29/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/30/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/29/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/29/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023307202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/24/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/25/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/26/2023
12312022309202310-K 12/25/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/25/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/26/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/27/2022
12312021310202210-K 12/26/2021