United Natural Foods (UNFI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $33.02 | Market Cap: $2.0 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Food Retail
United Natural Foods (UNFI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $33.02Market Cap: $2.0 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Food Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 11% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -102% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 150% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.6% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -9.3% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 11% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -102% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 150% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.6% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -9.3% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
UNFI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points highlighting why United Natural Foods (UNFI) stock moved by approximately 17.8% during the period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Stronger-than-Expected Q4 Fiscal 2025 Earnings.
United Natural Foods reported its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on September 30, 2025, with an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.11, which surpassed the forecast of -$0.16. The company's revenue of $7.7 billion also slightly exceeded anticipated figures. Following this announcement, UNFI's stock saw a significant positive reaction, surging over 10% in pre-market trading and more than 15% after the earnings release, reaching a 52-week high.
2. Beat in Q1 Fiscal 2026 Adjusted EPS and Revenue Performance.
On December 2, 2025, UNFI announced its first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings, reporting an adjusted EPS of $0.56, substantially beating the analyst consensus of $0.40 per share. While revenue of approximately $7.8 billion slightly missed estimates, this profit beat was a primary driver of investor enthusiasm, leading to the stock surging over 10% and reaching an 18-month high on the day of the announcement.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| UNFI Return | 82% | 207% | -21% | -58% | 68% | 32% | 310% |
| Peers Return | -3% | 18% | -23% | 14% | 5% | -5% | 1% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| UNFI Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 58% | 42% | 67% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 55% | 37% | 53% | 55% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| UNFI Max Drawdown | -38% | 0% | -32% | -66% | -46% | -22% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -51% | -10% | -31% | -12% | -19% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SYY, USFD, BGS, HFFG, KR. See UNFI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | UNFI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -76.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 324.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -87.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 700.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 782 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -64.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 178.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 562 days | 1480 days |
Compare to SYY, USFD, BGS, HFFG, KR
In The Past
United Natural Foods's stock fell -76.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/8/2021. A -76.5% loss requires a 324.8% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to UNFI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -2.1% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.2% | 7.2% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.1% |
| 03312023 | UNFI | United Natural Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -46.3% | -56.4% | -56.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -2.1% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.2% | 7.2% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.1% |
| 03312023 | UNFI | United Natural Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -46.3% | -56.4% | -56.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for United Natural Foods
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 49.76 |
| Mkt Cap | 9.5 |
| Rev LTM | 35,450 |
| Op Inc LTM | 693 |
| FCF LTM | 608 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 500 |
| CFO LTM | 914 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 815 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 2.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 9.5 |
| P/S | 0.3 |
| P/EBIT | 5.0 |
| P/E | 8.0 |
| P/CFO | 6.6 |
| Total Yield | -1.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| D/E | 1.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.9 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 1.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 1.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -17.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -13.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -10.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -91.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 10012025 | 10-K 8/2/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6102025 | 10-Q 5/3/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3112025 | 10-Q 2/1/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12102024 | 10-Q 11/2/2024 |
| 7312024 | 10012024 | 10-K 8/3/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6052024 | 10-Q 4/27/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3062024 | 10-Q 1/27/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12062023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9262023 | 10-K 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6072023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3082023 | 10-Q 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12072022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9272022 | 10-K 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6072022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3092022 | 10-Q 1/29/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12082021 | 10-Q 10/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Bushway Mark | President, Natural & CSCO | 2142025 | Sell | 32.00 | 13,700 | 438,400 | 1,401,376 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |