Murphy Oil (MUR)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $31.5 | Market Cap: $4.5 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Murphy Oil (MUR)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $31.5Market Cap: $4.5 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.2%, Dividend Yield is 4.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.1%, FCF Yield is 9.0% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -64%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -88% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -12%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.3% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 52%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Key risksMUR key risks include [1] a deteriorating success rate in its exploration programs, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and Global Energy Supply & Security. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, and Offshore Oil & Gas Exploration & Production. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.2%, Dividend Yield is 4.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.1%, FCF Yield is 9.0% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 52%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and Global Energy Supply & Security. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, and Offshore Oil & Gas Exploration & Production. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -64%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -88% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -12%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.3% |
| Key risksMUR key risks include [1] a deteriorating success rate in its exploration programs, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MUR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points for Murphy Oil's stock movement from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 20, 2025:
1. Murphy Oil reported strong operational performance in the third quarter of 2025, exceeding its production guidance. The company achieved 200.4 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOEPD) against a guidance range of 185 to 193 MBOEPD, driven by higher-than-expected initial production rates and robust well performance. This outperformance also included improved operating expenses.
2. The company announced the commencement of a high-risk/reward exploration program in Côte d'Ivoire during the fourth quarter of 2025. This three-well program is considered a significant catalyst due to its substantial resource growth potential, with results from the first prospect, Civette, anticipated in late January 2026.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MUR Return | -53% | 121% | 69% | 2% | -27% | 8% | 43% |
| Peers Return | -32% | 105% | 52% | 1% | -4% | -2% | 101% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MUR Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 58% | 33% | 33% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 37% | 73% | 60% | 55% | 43% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MUR Max Drawdown | -82% | 0% | 0% | -22% | -32% | -34% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -63% | -2% | 0% | -16% | -13% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: COP, EOG, FANG, DVN, CTRA. See MUR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MUR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 99 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -83.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 498.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 569 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -51.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 105.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 918 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 172.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1,480 days |
Compare to SU, MTDR, EPM, COP, CNQ
In The Past
Murphy Oil's stock fell -40.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -40.4% loss requires a 67.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MUR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.2% | 11.2% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.7% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.0% | 27.0% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.5% | -5.5% | -7.1% |
| 07312020 | MUR | Murphy Oil | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -4.1% | 70.9% | -46.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.2% | 11.2% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.7% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.0% | 27.0% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.5% | -5.5% | -7.1% |
| 07312020 | MUR | Murphy Oil | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -4.1% | 70.9% | -46.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Murphy Oil
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 63.89 |
| Mkt Cap | 32.6 |
| Rev LTM | 16,377 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,771 |
| FCF LTM | 2,133 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,642 |
| CFO LTM | 7,798 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 6,737 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -5.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 26.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 31.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 48.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 50.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 32.6 |
| P/S | 2.2 |
| P/EBIT | 7.7 |
| P/E | 11.0 |
| P/CFO | 5.1 |
| Total Yield | 12.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -0.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -9.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -80.6% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | 5.3% | 8.6% | 23.2% |
| 8/6/2025 | -3.3% | -1.6% | 7.0% |
| 5/7/2025 | 1.8% | 9.4% | 8.7% |
| 1/30/2025 | -5.9% | -8.6% | -8.2% |
| 11/7/2024 | 0.6% | -1.2% | -7.9% |
| 8/8/2024 | 0.9% | 0.1% | -5.0% |
| 5/2/2024 | 0.1% | 1.0% | -2.5% |
| 11/2/2023 | 3.0% | -4.6% | -2.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 15 | 13 |
| # Negative | 10 | 8 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.1% | 6.7% | 12.0% |
| Median Negative | -3.4% | -5.1% | -6.2% |
| Max Positive | 10.7% | 12.7% | 75.0% |
| Max Negative | -7.6% | -15.5% | -15.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |