Tearsheet

Murphy Oil (MUR)


Market Price (12/20/2025): $31.5 | Market Cap: $4.5 Bil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Murphy Oil (MUR)


Market Price (12/20/2025): $31.5
Market Cap: $4.5 Bil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.2%, Dividend Yield is 4.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.1%, FCF Yield is 9.0%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -64%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -88%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -12%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.3%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 52%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
Key risks
MUR key risks include [1] a deteriorating success rate in its exploration programs, Show more.
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence, and Global Energy Supply & Security. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, and Offshore Oil & Gas Exploration & Production.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.2%, Dividend Yield is 4.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.1%, FCF Yield is 9.0%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 52%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence, and Global Energy Supply & Security. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, and Offshore Oil & Gas Exploration & Production.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -64%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -88%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -12%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.3%
6 Key risks
MUR key risks include [1] a deteriorating success rate in its exploration programs, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MUR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points for Murphy Oil's stock movement from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 20, 2025: 1. Murphy Oil reported strong operational performance in the third quarter of 2025, exceeding its production guidance. The company achieved 200.4 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOEPD) against a guidance range of 185 to 193 MBOEPD, driven by higher-than-expected initial production rates and robust well performance. This outperformance also included improved operating expenses.

2. The company announced the commencement of a high-risk/reward exploration program in Côte d'Ivoire during the fourth quarter of 2025. This three-well program is considered a significant catalyst due to its substantial resource growth potential, with results from the first prospect, Civette, anticipated in late January 2026.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MUR Return-53%121%69%2%-27%8%43%
Peers Return-32%105%52%1%-4%-2%101%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MUR Win Rate50%67%58%33%33%67% 
Peers Win Rate37%73%60%55%43%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MUR Max Drawdown-82%0%0%-22%-32%-34% 
Peers Max Drawdown-63%-2%0%-16%-13%-17% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: COP, EOG, FANG, DVN, CTRA. See MUR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMURS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-40.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven67.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven99 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-83.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven498.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven569 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-51.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven105.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven918 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-63.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven172.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1,480 days

Compare to SU, MTDR, EPM, COP, CNQ


In The Past

Murphy Oil's stock fell -40.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -40.4% loss requires a 67.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Murphy Oil (MUR)

Better Bets than Murphy Oil (MUR)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MUR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
11.2%11.2%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.7%4.7%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
27.0%27.0%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.5%-5.5%-7.1%
MUR_7312020_Short_Squeeze07312020MURMurphy OilSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-4.1%70.9%-46.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
11.2%11.2%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.7%4.7%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
27.0%27.0%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.5%-5.5%-7.1%
MUR_7312020_Short_Squeeze07312020MURMurphy OilSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-4.1%70.9%-46.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Murphy Oil

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MURCOPEOGFANGDVNCTRAMedian
NameMurphy O.ConocoPh.EOG Reso.Diamondb.Devon En.Coterra . 
Mkt Price31.5891.94101.93148.1335.8425.3863.89
Mkt Cap4.5114.555.142.822.519.432.6
Rev LTM2,74659,78822,57915,28417,4707,08116,377
Op Inc LTM49212,5497,5395,5843,9582,2024,771
FCF LTM4057,0883,891-1,0942,8181,4482,133
FCF 3Y Avg6488,9105,167-1,9661,6771,6071,642
CFO LTM1,43219,93510,1958,7566,8413,6777,798
CFO 3Y Avg1,66420,72011,4536,7306,7443,6636,737

Growth & Margins

MURCOPEOGFANGDVNCTRAMedian
NameMurphy O.ConocoPh.EOG Reso.Diamondb.Devon En.Coterra . 
Rev Chg LTM-13.9%8.2%-5.0%60.1%11.4%25.1%9.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-11.7%-6.6%-7.6%20.8%-2.1%-5.3%-5.9%
Rev Chg Q-4.3%15.3%-2.3%48.2%7.6%33.7%11.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.2%3.4%-0.6%9.1%1.8%6.9%2.6%
Op Mgn LTM17.9%21.0%33.4%36.5%22.7%31.1%26.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg25.4%24.1%36.4%46.8%28.3%34.2%31.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-2.1%-1.0%-0.8%-1.3%-1.7%0.1%-1.1%
CFO/Rev LTM52.1%33.3%45.2%57.3%39.2%51.9%48.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg52.6%35.6%49.0%62.5%41.8%56.7%50.8%
FCF/Rev LTM14.8%11.9%17.2%-7.2%16.1%20.4%15.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg20.3%15.3%22.1%-18.6%10.2%24.8%17.8%

Valuation

MURCOPEOGFANGDVNCTRAMedian
NameMurphy O.ConocoPh.EOG Reso.Diamondb.Devon En.Coterra . 
Mkt Cap4.5114.555.142.822.519.432.6
P/S1.61.92.42.81.32.72.2
P/EBIT12.97.87.67.25.58.67.7
P/E31.612.910.010.28.311.811.0
P/CFO3.15.75.44.93.35.35.1
Total Yield7.2%11.1%13.9%12.5%14.8%12.0%12.2%
Dividend Yield4.1%3.4%3.8%2.6%2.7%3.5%3.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg12.4%6.9%7.6%-5.2%6.5%8.5%7.3%
D/E0.50.20.10.40.40.20.3
Net D/E0.40.20.10.40.30.20.3

Returns

MURCOPEOGFANGDVNCTRAMedian
NameMurphy O.ConocoPh.EOG Reso.Diamondb.Devon En.Coterra . 
1M Rtn3.9%4.5%-4.8%-0.4%2.2%-1.5%0.9%
3M Rtn20.3%0.9%-11.3%6.8%6.2%9.9%6.5%
6M Rtn30.4%-1.2%-17.2%0.9%5.9%-4.2%-0.1%
12M Rtn18.1%-0.1%-10.8%-0.5%20.7%11.0%5.5%
3Y Rtn-16.0%-9.3%-10.0%24.4%-31.8%16.0%-9.6%
1M Excs Rtn1.1%1.6%-7.7%-3.3%-0.7%-4.4%-2.0%
3M Excs Rtn15.7%-1.3%-12.9%5.3%4.9%8.7%5.1%
6M Excs Rtn25.3%-11.4%-28.4%-7.0%-2.8%-16.7%-9.2%
12M Excs Rtn0.5%-16.2%-27.3%-17.8%1.6%-5.8%-11.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-87.7%-80.5%-80.6%-48.4%-105.7%-56.1%-80.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment3,449    
Crude oil and condensate revenue 3,3582,3231,4602,515
Natural gas liquids revenue 1431115170
Natural gas revenue 538368240232
Sales of purchased natural gas 182   
Total3,4494,2202,8011,7522,817


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity18,269,082
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520251.7%
Average Daily Volume2,052,192
Days-to-Cover Short Interest8.90
Basic Shares Quantity142,731,000
Short % of Basic Shares12.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/20255.3%8.6%23.2%
8/6/2025-3.3%-1.6%7.0%
5/7/20251.8%9.4%8.7%
1/30/2025-5.9%-8.6%-8.2%
11/7/20240.6%-1.2%-7.9%
8/8/20240.9%0.1%-5.0%
5/2/20240.1%1.0%-2.5%
11/2/20233.0%-4.6%-2.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131513
# Negative10810
Median Positive2.1%6.7%12.0%
Median Negative-3.4%-5.1%-6.2%
Max Positive10.7%12.7%75.0%
Max Negative-7.6%-15.5%-15.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021