Ovintiv (OVV)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $42.41 | Market Cap: $10.9 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Ovintiv (OVV)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $42.41Market Cap: $10.9 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.3%, Dividend Yield is 3.0%, FCF Yield is 14% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -87% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 62% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 3.7 Bil | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 44x | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -11% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.3%, Dividend Yield is 3.0%, FCF Yield is 14% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 3.7 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -87% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 62% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 44x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -11% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
OVV Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for Ovintiv's (OVV) stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Ovintiv's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Report: On November 4, 2025, Ovintiv announced its Q3 2025 results. The company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.03, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.97. Quarterly revenue was $2.07 billion, also exceeding analyst expectations of $1.86 billion. Additionally, Ovintiv's average total production volumes for the quarter were approximately 630 MBOE/d, exceeding the high end of its guidance range. The company also generated $351 million in Non-GAAP Free Cash Flow and reduced net debt by $126 million.
2. Completion of NuVista Energy Ltd. Acquisition: Ovintiv completed its portfolio transformation with an agreement to acquire NuVista Energy Ltd. on November 4, 2025. This acquisition was highlighted by analysts as a positive driver, expected to add core liquids inventory, approximately 930 net well placements, and 140,000 net acres, strengthening Ovintiv's Montney position and contributing 100,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day on average in 2026.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OVV Return | -35% | 138% | 53% | -11% | -5% | 3% | 107% |
| Peers Return | -1% | 109% | 67% | 4% | 35% | 4% | 404% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OVV Win Rate | 67% | 75% | 67% | 42% | 42% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 67% | 63% | 52% | 55% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OVV Max Drawdown | -91% | 0% | 0% | -36% | -14% | -22% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -70% | -0% | -3% | -18% | -11% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TRGP, EQT, AR, BSM, COP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OVV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -48.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 93.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -90.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1003.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 357 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -72.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 269.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -64.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 182.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to TRGP, EQT, AR, BSM, COP
In The Past
Ovintiv's stock fell -48.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -48.2% loss requires a 93.1% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to OVV. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
| 04302023 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 34.4% | 52.4% | -11.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
| 04302023 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 34.4% | 52.4% | -11.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Ovintiv
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 61.17 |
| Mkt Cap | 37.8 |
| Rev LTM | 8,418 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,497 |
| FCF LTM | 1,332 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,220 |
| CFO LTM | 3,729 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,480 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -8.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 22.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 37.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 37.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 37.8 |
| P/S | 2.1 |
| P/EBIT | 11.5 |
| P/E | 19.1 |
| P/CFO | 6.7 |
| Total Yield | 6.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 9.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 8.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 10.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -1.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 5.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 9.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -17.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -71.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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