Utz Brands (UTZ)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $9.4 | Market Cap: $817.4 MilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Utz Brands (UTZ)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $9.4Market Cap: $817.4 MilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.2% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -75%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -118% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 92% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 186x | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Online Grocery Platforms, Show more. | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.8% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.2% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Online Grocery Platforms, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -75%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -118% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 92% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 186x |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.8% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
UTZ Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate -27.7% movement in Utz Brands (UTZ) stock during the period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Analyst Downgrade and Significant Underperformance: On September 3, 2025, Utz Brands' stock was downgraded to a "Sell" rating, with the stock having already fallen by 25.7% and significantly underperforming the S&P 500.
2. Weak Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: The company reported a substantial net loss of $(20.2) million and a diluted loss per share of $(0.17) for the third quarter ended September 28, 2025. Additionally, the gross profit margin declined by 220 basis points, and EBITDA decreased by 22.0% during the quarter.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| UTZ Return | 116% | -27% | 1% | 4% | -2% | -39% | -2% |
| Peers Return | 4% | 13% | 13% | -19% | 2% | -25% | -17% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| UTZ Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 44% | 60% | 38% | 56% | 38% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| UTZ Max Drawdown | -4% | -37% | -22% | -27% | -10% | -38% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -13% | -5% | -6% | -31% | -15% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: K, GIS, FLO, WEST, BRBF.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | UTZ | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -61.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 162.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -12.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 71 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -3.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 3.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 120 days |
Compare to K, GIS, FLO, WEST, BRBF
In The Past
Utz Brands's stock fell -61.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/3/2021. A -61.9% loss requires a 162.3% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to UTZ. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -2.1% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.2% | 7.2% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -2.1% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.2% | 7.2% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Utz Brands
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 11.07 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.3 |
| Rev LTM | 3,286 |
| Op Inc LTM | 172 |
| FCF LTM | 163 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 128 |
| CFO LTM | 276 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 237 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -0.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.3 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/EBIT | 8.7 |
| P/E | 14.2 |
| P/CFO | 10.4 |
| Total Yield | 7.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -21.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -28.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -42.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | -46.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -26.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -42.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -57.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -117.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/28/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/29/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/29/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 10/1/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 10-Q 7/2/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5112023 | 10-Q 4/2/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3022023 | 10-K 1/1/2023 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 10-Q 10/2/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 10-Q 7/3/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5122022 | 10-Q 4/3/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3032022 | 10-K 1/2/2022 |
External Quote Links
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