Upstart (UPST)
Market Price (4/11/2026): $27.3 | Market Cap: $2.7 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Consumer Finance
Upstart (UPST)
Market Price (4/11/2026): $27.3Market Cap: $2.7 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Consumer Finance
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 63% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -49% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include AI Software Platforms, and Online Banking & Lending. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -20% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 50x Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -16% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.1% Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 28% Key risksUPST key risks include [1] a heavy reliance on a concentrated number of lending partners for funding and revenue and [2] regulatory scrutiny targeting the fairness and transparency of its core AI-driven lending model. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 63% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -49% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include AI Software Platforms, and Online Banking & Lending. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -20% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 50x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -16% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.1% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 28% |
| Key risksUPST key risks include [1] a heavy reliance on a concentrated number of lending partners for funding and revenue and [2] regulatory scrutiny targeting the fairness and transparency of its core AI-driven lending model. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Shift in Financial Guidance and Weaker 2026 Margin Outlook.
Upstart's decision to discontinue providing quarterly financial guidance, announced alongside its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on February 10, 2026, created significant investor uncertainty. This was compounded by a weaker-than-expected 2026 margin outlook, as the company projected adjusted EBITDA margins of approximately 21% for the full year 2026, a decline from the 22% adjusted EBITDA margin reported in Q4 2025, despite projections for strong revenue growth to approximately $1.4 billion.
2. Leadership Transition.
The announcement of a leadership change, with co-founder Paul Gu slated to replace Dave Girouard as CEO effective May 1, 2026, further contributed to investor apprehension following the Q4 2025 earnings report. Although the company presented it as a planned transition intended to ensure continuity, the timing of this announcement added to the overall market uncertainty, leading to a substantial institutional selloff.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -37.7% change in UPST stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -62.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 43.73 | 27.26 | -37.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 959 | 1,024 | 6.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.4% | 5.2% | 55.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 131.3 | 49.6 | -62.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 97 | 98 | -1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -37.7% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UPST | -37.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 57.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | -7.3% | 64.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -46.3% change in UPST stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -54.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 50.80 | 27.26 | -46.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 844 | 1,024 | 21.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 5.7 | 2.6 | -54.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 96 | 98 | -2.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -46.3% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UPST | -46.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 58.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | -5.4% | 59.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -40.8% change in UPST stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -61.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 46.03 | 27.26 | -40.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 629 | 1,024 | 62.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 6.7 | 2.6 | -61.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 92 | 98 | -5.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -40.8% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UPST | -40.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 60.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | 3.0% | 59.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 71.6% change in UPST stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 68.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 15.89 | 27.26 | 71.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 838 | 1,024 | 22.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.5 | 2.6 | 68.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 81 | 98 | -16.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 71.6% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UPST | 71.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 44.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | 64.9% | 40.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| UPST Return | 271% | -91% | 209% | 51% | -29% | -37% | -33% |
| Peers Return | 49% | -70% | 117% | 25% | 53% | -29% | 31% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 82% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| UPST Win Rate | 58% | 25% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 27% | 50% | 48% | 60% | 30% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| UPST Max Drawdown | 0% | -92% | -8% | -47% | -43% | -45% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -74% | -19% | -32% | -30% | -37% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SOFI, LC, AFRM, PGY, ALLY. See UPST Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/10/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | UPST | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -96.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 3123.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to SOFI, LC, AFRM, PGY, ALLY
In The Past
Upstart's stock fell -96.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/15/2021. A -96.9% loss requires a 3123.1% gain to breakeven.
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About Upstart (UPST)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Upstart:
- Upstart is like an Expedia for personal loans, powered by AI.
- Upstart is like a LendingClub for banks, driven by AI.
- Upstart is like Salesforce for AI-driven loan origination for banks.
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- AI Lending Platform: A cloud-based platform that utilizes artificial intelligence to connect consumers seeking loans with bank partners and institutional investors.
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Upstart (UPST) primarily sells its cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform and related services to other companies, specifically financial institutions. Upstart operates with a diversified network of partners and typically does not disclose the names of individual "major customers" that account for a significant portion of its revenue.
The primary categories of companies that are Upstart's customers include:
- Banks and Credit Unions: These financial institutions leverage Upstart's AI platform to originate and underwrite loans for consumers. Upstart has a network of over 100 bank and credit union partners. While specific major bank partners are not typically disclosed by name due to the nature of Upstart's diversified partner base, a notable and long-standing partner that has been publicly mentioned in various contexts as a significant originator of Upstart-powered loans is Cross River Bank. Cross River Bank is a privately held institution and therefore does not have a public stock symbol.
- Institutional Investors: These entities provide funding and liquidity to the Upstart ecosystem by purchasing loans originated through the platform, either from Upstart directly or from its bank partners. This category encompasses a variety of investment funds, asset managers, and other capital providers. No specific names of individual institutional investors are publicly disclosed as major customers.
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Amazon (symbol: AMZN)
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Dave Girouard, Co-Founder & Chief Executive Officer
Dave Girouard co-founded Upstart in 2012. Before founding Upstart, he served as President of Google Enterprise for eight years (2004-2012), where he was instrumental in building Google's multi-billion dollar cloud applications business worldwide, encompassing product development, sales, marketing, and customer support. His career also includes roles as a Product Manager at Apple, SVP of Product Management & Marketing at Virage, a Senior Associate at Booz Allen & Hamilton, and a software developer at Accenture. Girouard will transition to the role of Executive Chairman on May 1, 2026.
Andrea Blankmeyer, Chief Financial Officer
Andrea Blankmeyer joined Upstart as Chief Financial Officer, effective March 16, 2026. Prior to Upstart, she was the CFO of Cityblock Health from 2020 to March 2026. She also held the CFO position at Transfix, an AI-enabled freight solutions provider, and served as Vice President of Finance at SoFi, where her responsibilities included leading FP&A, investor relations, treasury, financial operations, and warehouse operations.
Paul Gu, Co-Founder & Chief Technology Officer (Incoming Chief Executive Officer effective May 1, 2026)
Paul Gu co-founded Upstart in 2012 and currently serves as the Chief Technology Officer, overseeing product, engineering, and machine learning functions, as well as general management of the emerging auto and home businesses. He will become Chief Executive Officer of Upstart on May 1, 2026. Gu was a Thiel Fellow in the 20 Under 20 Program and previously worked as a Summer Analyst at D.E. Shaw & Co. He studied Economics and Computer Science at Yale University.
Anna Counselman, Co-Founder & Head of People & Operations
Anna Counselman is a co-founder of Upstart, which she helped establish in 2012, and leads the company's People & Operations teams, focusing on customer experience and culture-strategy alignment. Before Upstart, she spent five years at Google, where she managed Gmail Consumer Operations during its growth from 150 million to over 450 million users and launched the global Enterprise Customer Programs team. Her background also includes various operations roles at McMaster Carr and other startups. Counselman received a White House Champion of Change award.
Sanjay Datta, President and Chief Capital Officer
Sanjay Datta was named Upstart's President and Chief Capital Officer, effective February 10, 2026. He joined Upstart over nine years ago as Chief Financial Officer, a role in which he was instrumental in the company's transition from a pre-profit startup to a rapidly growing, profitable publicly traded financial technology company, including managing its December 2020 IPO. His prior experience includes senior roles at Google and Deloitte.
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The key risks to Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) primarily stem from its reliance on funding partners, the sensitivity of its AI lending model and credit performance to macroeconomic conditions, and an evolving regulatory landscape for AI in finance.
1. Concentration Risk and Reliance on Funding Partners
Upstart faces significant concentration risk due to its heavy reliance on a limited number of bank partners and institutional investors for loan originations and funding. For instance, in 2021, two banks alone contributed 83% of Upstart's revenue, having originated 55% and 36% of the loans on its platform, respectively. A reduction in loan quotas or termination of relationships by these key partners could lead to substantial business disruption, negatively impacting Upstart's financial performance and customer satisfaction. While Upstart operates a capital-light model by referring loans to banks, its growth prospects are directly tied to its ability to attract and retain these funding sources.
2. Credit Performance and Macroeconomic Headwinds
The effectiveness of Upstart's AI-powered lending platform is highly susceptible to credit cycle deterioration and broader macroeconomic conditions, such as rising interest rates and economic slowdowns. Higher interest rates typically reduce loan demand, directly impacting Upstart's revenue. Furthermore, in a weakening economy, increased loan defaults could reduce the appeal of Upstart's platform to lenders and challenge the accuracy of its AI models to predict appropriate credit losses. Although Upstart's model aims to assess credit risk more effectively than traditional methods, its performance under severe, prolonged stressful economic conditions has yet to be fully battle-tested.
3. Regulatory and Compliance Risks, Including AI Bias and Data Privacy
Operating an AI-driven lending platform in the financial industry exposes Upstart to a complex and evolving regulatory environment. This includes potential scrutiny from regulators regarding fairness and transparency in AI lending models, the risk of hidden biases against certain borrowers, and concerns related to data privacy and security when handling sensitive consumer information. Upstart's recent application for a national bank charter, while potentially offering benefits like reduced regulatory friction, also introduces new compliance requirements and operating costs that need to be managed. Non-compliance with these evolving regulations could lead to investigations, enforcement actions, fines, and reputational damage.
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The following are clear emerging threats for Upstart (UPST):
- Erosion of confidence in its AI model's resilience: Upstart's business relies on its proprietary AI model outperforming traditional credit scoring methods, particularly for non-prime borrowers. Emerging evidence from recent periods of economic volatility and rising interest rates has shown challenges for the model to consistently predict credit risk and maintain loan performance, leading to higher-than-expected defaults. This has resulted in significantly reduced demand and increased caution from institutional investors and the securitization market for Upstart-powered loans, threatening the platform's ability to attract and retain the capital necessary for loan growth.
- Increasing regulatory scrutiny on AI in lending: Governments and financial regulatory bodies are placing increasing focus on the ethical implications, fairness, transparency, and potential for bias in AI models used for credit decisions. The emerging regulatory landscape, potentially including new mandates for algorithmic explainability, bias auditing, or limitations on certain AI methodologies, could necessitate costly modifications to Upstart's core AI platform or restrict its operational scope.
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Upstart (UPST) operates in several large addressable markets within the United States for its lending products and services:
- The total addressable market (TAM) for personal loans, small business loans, auto loans, and home loans is estimated to be more than $3 trillion in annual origination volume in the U.S.
- The personal loan market in the U.S. is estimated to be approximately $96 billion.
- The auto loan origination opportunity in the U.S. is valued at $727 billion annually.
- The small business lending market in the U.S. is an estimated $895 billion annually.
- The mortgage market in the U.S. is approximately $4.6 trillion.
- The home equity line of credit (HELOC) market in the U.S. has more than $30 trillion in untapped home equity.
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```htmlExpected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Upstart (UPST)
Over the next 2-3 years, Upstart (UPST) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth through several key initiatives:
-
Expansion into New Lending Products: Upstart is actively diversifying its product offerings beyond unsecured personal loans. Significant growth is expected from its expansion into auto retail and refinance loans, home equity lines of credit (HELOC), and newly launched small-dollar loan products, such as the "Cash Line." This strategy taps into larger markets and broadens the company's addressable opportunity.
-
Growth in Lending Partner Network and Institutional Capital: A crucial driver will be the continued expansion of Upstart's network of AI-enabled bank and credit union partners, along with securing additional institutional funding. An increasing number of lending partners and greater access to capital on its platform directly facilitate higher loan origination volumes.
-
Advancements in AI Underwriting Models and Automation: Ongoing improvements to Upstart's proprietary artificial intelligence underwriting models are expected to enhance credit assessment accuracy, leading to higher loan conversion rates and greater automation in the lending process. This increased efficiency allows for a higher volume of loans to be processed with improved unit economics and reduced operating costs.
-
Cross-Selling to Existing Customers: Upstart is focusing on leveraging its current base of millions of borrowers by offering them additional loan products, particularly in areas like auto refinancing. This approach is designed to reduce customer acquisition costs and increase the lifetime value of its customers, thereby contributing to sustained revenue growth.
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Share Repurchases
- Upstart's Board of Directors authorized a $400 million share repurchase program.
- Between February 12 and February 18, 2026, Upstart repurchased $100 million of common stock, acquiring 3,193,294 shares at an average price of $31.31 per share.
- As of February 19, 2026, $122 million remained available for future repurchases under the $400 million share repurchase program.
Share Issuance
- In Q2 2025, Upstart received $4.565 million from the issuance of common stock under its employee stock purchase plan and $2.219 million from the exercise of stock options.
- On February 28, 2026, 912,702 performance-based restricted stock units (PRSUs) were granted to the Chief Technology Officer as an equity incentive.
- Upstart issued 0% Convertible Senior Notes due 2032.
Inbound Investments
- Upstart secured a 12-month, $1.5 billion forward flow agreement with Castlelake in November 2025.
- The company finalized a $480 million Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) transaction, UPST 2025-4, in November 2025.
- In Q4 2024, Upstart noted an upsized $1.3 billion commitment from capital partners and a $150 million personal loan warehouse facility.
Capital Expenditures
- Upstart emphasizes continued investment in technology to improve the user experience and enhance its AI-driven lending platform.
- The company's capital allocation includes scaling AI model innovation and advancing competitive rates and processes across its product offerings.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 21.74 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.7 |
| Rev LTM | 2,437 |
| Op Inc LTM | 445 |
| FCF LTM | -356 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 16 |
| CFO LTM | 45 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 32 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 29.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 19.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 26.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 6.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -0.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 2.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -11.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 0.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.7 |
| P/S | 2.2 |
| P/EBIT | 13.3 |
| P/E | 28.1 |
| P/CFO | 1.4 |
| Total Yield | 5.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.3% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | -0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -40.7% |
| 6M Rtn | -34.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 28.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 87.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -39.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -39.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -0.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 30.7% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $27.26 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/16/2020 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -67.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $29.68 | $50.13 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -8.1% | -45.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 71.5% | 70.1% |
| Downside Capture | 2.21 | 1.63 |
| Upside Capture | 210.87 | 185.44 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 55.5% | 52.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.83 | 3.40 | 3.37 | 3.20 | 2.45 | 2.87 |
| Up Beta | 3.48 | 4.10 | 4.55 | 3.58 | 2.36 | 2.32 |
| Down Beta | 3.11 | 1.76 | 2.34 | 2.84 | 2.71 | 2.74 |
| Up Capture | 360% | 345% | 293% | 312% | 276% | 23758% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 20 | 29 | 65 | 131 | 375 |
| Down Capture | 200% | 343% | 322% | 247% | 165% | 113% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 61 | 120 | 372 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with UPST | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPST | -27.1% | 73.5% | -0.12 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 16.9% | 17.3% | 0.74 | 57.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 31.2% | 17.3% | 1.47 | 57.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 60.1% | 27.8% | 1.69 | -1.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 29.8% | 16.6% | 1.58 | 15.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 21.3% | 15.2% | 1.07 | 43.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -5.7% | 43.7% | -0.01 | 40.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with UPST | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPST | -28.5% | 105.3% | 0.18 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.7% | 18.7% | 0.40 | 39.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.1% | 17.0% | 0.50 | 46.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.1% | 17.8% | 1.02 | 6.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.8% | 18.8% | 0.52 | 8.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.7% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 39.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.0% | 56.5% | 0.29 | 23.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with UPST | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPST | -1.2% | 115.0% | 0.51 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.7% | 22.2% | 0.53 | 34.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.8% | 17.9% | 0.66 | 40.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.2% | 15.9% | 0.74 | 6.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.41 | 5.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 34.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 19.7% |
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Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/10/2026 | -15.0% | -19.1% | -33.9% |
| 11/4/2025 | -9.7% | -15.8% | 1.1% |
| 8/5/2025 | -18.7% | -23.3% | -20.3% |
| 5/6/2025 | -9.6% | 4.4% | -0.0% |
| 2/11/2025 | 31.8% | 23.4% | -31.2% |
| 11/7/2024 | 46.0% | 21.5% | 37.7% |
| 8/6/2024 | 39.5% | 58.5% | 49.6% |
| 5/7/2024 | -5.6% | 16.8% | 9.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 8 | 8 |
| # Negative | 9 | 7 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 37.1% | 22.4% | 28.4% |
| Median Negative | -15.0% | -19.1% | -29.4% |
| Max Positive | 89.3% | 84.7% | 132.5% |
| Max Negative | -27.3% | -25.5% | -42.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/10/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/10/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Total Revenue | 1.40 Bil | 35.3% | Higher New | Actual: 1.03 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Revenue From Fees | 1.30 Bil | 37.4% | Higher New | Actual: 946.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 21.0% | -4.6% | -1.0% | Lower New | Actual: 22.0% for 2025 | ||
| 2025-2028 Total Revenue Compound Annual Growth Rate | 35.0% | ||||||
| 2025-2028 Terminal Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 25.0% | ||||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Total Revenue | 288.00 Mil | 2.9% | Raised | Guidance: 280.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |||
| Q4 2025 Revenue From Fees | 262.00 Mil | -4.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 275.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |||
| Q4 2025 Net Interest Income | 26.00 Mil | 420.0% | Raised | Guidance: 5.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |||
| Q4 2025 Contribution Margin | 53.0% | -8.6% | -5.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 58.0% for Q3 2025 | ||
| Q4 2025 GAAP Net Income | 17.00 Mil | 88.9% | Raised | Guidance: 9.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |||
| Q4 2025 Adjusted Net Income | 52.00 Mil | 18.2% | Raised | Guidance: 44.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |||
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 63.00 Mil | 12.5% | Raised | Guidance: 56.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |||
| 2025 Total Revenue | 1.03 Bil | -1.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.05 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Revenue From Fees | 946.00 Mil | -4.4% | Lowered | Guidance: 990.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Net Interest Income | 89.00 Mil | 36.9% | Raised | Guidance: 65.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 GAAP Net Income | 50.00 Mil | 42.9% | Raised | Guidance: 35.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 22.0% | 10.0% | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 20.0% for 2025 | ||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darling, Scott | Chief Legal Officer | by trust | Sell | 1062026 | 50.00 | 1,000 | 50,000 | 871,750 | Form |
| 2 | Cooper, Kerry Whorton | See Footnote | Sell | 12152025 | 50.00 | 1,500 | 75,000 | 1,196,700 | Form | |
| 3 | Darling, Scott | Chief Legal Officer | by trust | Sell | 12152025 | 50.00 | 7,392 | 369,600 | 871,750 | Form |
| 4 | Mirgorodskaya, Natalia | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 38.91 | 762 | 29,649 | 1,027,146 | Form |
| 5 | Mirgorodskaya, Natalia | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 36.62 | 821 | 30,063 | 994,541 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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