Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

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Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.2%

Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 40%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 9.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.7 Bil

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 4.3 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 22%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, Automation & Robotics, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Show more.

Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -5.3%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -23%

Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.71

Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.8x

Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.5%

Key risks
UNP key risks include [1] the ongoing decline in coal transportation demand and [2] volatility in international intermodal volumes, Show more.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.2%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 40%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 9.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.7 Bil
3 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 4.3 Bil
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 22%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, Automation & Robotics, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Show more.
6 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
7 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -5.3%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -23%
8 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.71
9 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.8x
10 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.5%
11 Key risks
UNP key risks include [1] the ongoing decline in coal transportation demand and [2] volatility in international intermodal volumes, Show more.

UNP in ETFs

Weight = UNP's share of each fund

SPY0.26%
VOO0.24%
IVV0.26%
VTI0.21%
ITOT0.23%
IWB0.24%
RSP0.20%
VTV0.59%
+30 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 7/1/2026

Union Pacific (UNP) stock has gained about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Financial Performance and Upbeat Outlook. Union Pacific reported adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.93 for fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), exceeding the consensus estimate of $2.86. Quarterly revenue also surpassed expectations, growing 3.2% year-over-year to $6.22 billion. Management reinforced investor confidence by reaffirming its outlook for mid-single-digit EPS growth and projected high-single to low-double-digit earnings growth through 2027.

2. Favorable Rail Industry Volume Growth and Enhanced Operational Efficiency. The railroad industry experienced a significant volume tailwind, with US rail intermodal volumes surging 12.1% year-over-year for the week ending June 20, 2026, marking the sixth consecutive week of over 5% gains. Union Pacific demonstrated improved operational efficiency, achieving an adjusted operating ratio of 59.9% in fiscal Q1 2026, an 80 basis point improvement. This performance was supported by broad-based freight growth across various commodity groups, including autos, chemicals, and forest products.

Show more
Updated on 7/1/2026

Union Pacific (UNP) stock has gained about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Financial Performance and Upbeat Outlook. Union Pacific reported adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.93 for fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), exceeding the consensus estimate of $2.86. Quarterly revenue also surpassed expectations, growing 3.2% year-over-year to $6.22 billion. Management reinforced investor confidence by reaffirming its outlook for mid-single-digit EPS growth and projected high-single to low-double-digit earnings growth through 2027.

2. Favorable Rail Industry Volume Growth and Enhanced Operational Efficiency. The railroad industry experienced a significant volume tailwind, with US rail intermodal volumes surging 12.1% year-over-year for the week ending June 20, 2026, marking the sixth consecutive week of over 5% gains. Union Pacific demonstrated improved operational efficiency, achieving an adjusted operating ratio of 59.9% in fiscal Q1 2026, an 80 basis point improvement. This performance was supported by broad-based freight growth across various commodity groups, including autos, chemicals, and forest products.

3. Progress on the Proposed Merger with Norfolk Southern. On May 28, 2026, the Surface Transportation Board (STB) accepted Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern's amended merger application. This proposed combination aims to create America's first transcontinental railroad, with an estimated $3.5 billion in annual savings for shippers and the conversion of 10,000 existing interline lanes into more efficient single-line service. The regulatory acceptance of this application positively influenced investor sentiment.

4. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Increased Price Targets. Analyst sentiment turned increasingly bullish on Union Pacific's prospects. Evercore ISI raised its price target for UNP to $294 from $277 while maintaining an "Outperform" rating. RBC Capital Markets indicated that Union Pacific was poised for Q2 2026 earnings beats driven by strong rail volumes. Additionally, Union Pacific was upgraded to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) on June 30, 2026, reflecting an upward trend in earnings estimates.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 17.3% change in UNP stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 16.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)33120267072026Change
Stock Price ($)241.37283.1217.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)24,51024,7000.8%
Net Income Margin (%)29.1%29.2%0.3%
P/E Multiple20.023.316.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)593593-0.1%
Cumulative Contribution17.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2026 to 7/7/2026
ReturnCorrelation
UNP17.3% 
Market (SPY)15.0%-2.9%
Sector (XLI)12.8%34.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The 23.7% change in UNP stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 21.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)123120257072026Change
Stock Price ($)228.93283.1223.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)24,54624,7000.6%
Net Income Margin (%)28.7%29.2%1.6%
P/E Multiple19.223.321.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)592593-0.1%
Cumulative Contribution23.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 7/7/2026
ReturnCorrelation
UNP23.7% 
Market (SPY)9.9%17.5%
Sector (XLI)17.9%45.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The 25.8% change in UNP stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 15.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)63020257072026Change
Stock Price ($)224.97283.1225.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)24,24624,7001.9%
Net Income Margin (%)27.8%29.2%5.2%
P/E Multiple20.123.315.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)6015931.3%
Cumulative Contribution25.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2025 to 7/7/2026
ReturnCorrelation
UNP25.8% 
Market (SPY)22.0%20.0%
Sector (XLI)24.9%43.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The 48.0% change in UNP stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 39.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)63020237072026Change
Stock Price ($)191.30283.1248.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)25,07124,700-1.5%
Net Income Margin (%)27.9%29.2%4.6%
P/E Multiple16.723.339.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)6115933.0%
Cumulative Contribution48.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2023 to 7/7/2026
ReturnCorrelation
UNP48.0% 
Market (SPY)74.6%42.0%
Sector (XLI)77.0%58.7%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
UNP Return23%-16%22%-5%4%23%53%
Peers Return24%-9%8%-9%11%27%60%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%10%101%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
UNP Win Rate50%42%50%33%67%71% 
Peers Win Rate53%37%52%48%55%71% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%57% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
UNP Max Drawdown-14%-32%-15%-13%-18%-12% 
Peers Max Drawdown-16%-26%-19%-22%-21%-13% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CSX, NSC, CP, CNI, JBHT. See UNP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/7/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventUNPS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-15.2%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven18.0%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven301 days79 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-23.5%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven30.7%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven419 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-37.5%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven60.0%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven74 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-21.0%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven26.5%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven49 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-24.8%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven33.1%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven165 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-32.9%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven49.0%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven301 days15 days

Compare to CSX, NSC, CP, CNI, JBHT

In The Past

Union Pacific's stock fell -15.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventUNPS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-23.5%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven30.7%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven419 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-37.5%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven60.0%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven74 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-21.0%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven26.5%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven49 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-24.8%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven33.1%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven165 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-32.9%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven49.0%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven301 days15 days
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-22.7%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven29.3%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven43 days123 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-46.3%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven86.2%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven179 days1085 days

Compare to CSX, NSC, CP, CNI, JBHT

In The Past

Union Pacific's stock fell -15.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Union Pacific (UNP)

Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) is a prominent railroad company operating extensively across the United States. Its core business involves providing critical freight transportation services through its vast rail network, which spans over 32,000 route miles. This extensive network effectively connects major economic hubs, linking Pacific Coast and Gulf Coast ports with the Midwest and Eastern U.S. gateways.

The company transports a diverse range of commodities essential to various sectors of the U.S. economy. For agricultural customers such as grain processors, animal feeders, and ethanol producers, Union Pacific moves grain and grain products, fertilizers, and refrigerated food. It also plays a vital role in energy and industrial sectors, transporting coal, renewables, petroleum, liquid petroleum gases, construction materials, industrial chemicals, plastics, and forest products.

Union Pacific further supports manufacturing and consumer markets by hauling finished automobiles, automotive parts, metals, ores, and specialized products. Additionally, it handles general merchandise within intermodal containers, catering to a broad spectrum of businesses requiring efficient and reliable freight transportation across the country.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Union Pacific (UNP) is like:

  • UPS or FedEx, but for entire trainloads of industrial goods.
  • A giant freight trucking company like JB Hunt, but operating trains instead of trucks.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Agricultural Products Transportation: Provides rail transportation for grain and grain products, fertilizers, food and refrigerated products, and coal and renewables.
  • Energy Products Transportation: Offers rail services for moving petroleum and liquid petroleum gases.
  • Industrial Products Transportation: Transports a wide range of industrial goods including construction products, industrial chemicals, plastics, forest products, specialized products, metals and ores, soda ash, and sand.
  • Automotive Transportation: Specializes in the rail shipment of finished automobiles and automotive parts.
  • Intermodal Transportation: Delivers transportation solutions for merchandise moved in intermodal containers.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Union Pacific (UNP) sells primarily to other companies. Based on the services it provides, its major customers are likely large corporations across various industries that require bulk transportation of raw materials, manufactured goods, and consumer products. While Union Pacific does not publicly disclose a definitive list of its largest individual customers, based on the description of its business segments, major customers likely include:

  • Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (NYSE: ADM) - A global leader in agricultural processing, ADM would utilize Union Pacific for transporting grains, oilseeds, and processed agricultural products, including ethanol.
  • Bunge Global SA (NYSE: BG) - Another major player in agribusiness and food production, relying on rail for the movement of grains, oilseeds, and other agricultural commodities.
  • Dow Inc. (NYSE: DOW) - As a leading global materials science company, Dow would use Union Pacific for shipping industrial chemicals, plastics, and other specialized products.
  • Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) - One of the largest independent refiners and producers of renewable fuels, Valero would be a key customer for the transportation of petroleum products, refined fuels, and ethanol.
  • Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) - A major automotive manufacturer, Ford would use Union Pacific for transporting finished automobiles and automotive parts across the country.
  • J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (NASDAQ: JBHT) - A prominent transportation and logistics company, J.B. Hunt is a major user of intermodal rail services, partnering with railroads like Union Pacific to move freight in containers for numerous retail and manufacturing clients.
  • Vulcan Materials Company (NYSE: VMC) - As the largest producer of construction aggregates (crushed stone, sand, and gravel) in the United States, Vulcan Materials would rely on Union Pacific for the bulk transportation of these essential construction materials.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Wabtec Corporation (WAB)
  • Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)

AI Analysis | Feedback

Jim Vena, Chief Executive Officer

Jim Vena leads Union Pacific with more than 40 years of railroad industry experience, known for driving operating and service results. He began his career at Canadian National Railway (CN) as a brakeman and advanced through various roles in Engineering, Mechanical, Operating, Marketing, Strategic Planning, and Labor Relations, ultimately becoming Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. Vena previously served as Union Pacific's Chief Operating Officer from 2019-2020 and as a senior advisor to the chairman in 2021, before returning as CEO in August 2023. He has served on the boards of the Association of American Railroads (AAR), Direct ChassisLink Inc. (DCLI), and FedEx.

Jennifer Hamann, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Jennifer Hamann was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer on January 1, 2020. She is responsible for managing all aspects of Union Pacific's financial activities, including accounting, tax, real estate, investor relations, treasury, audit, and capital planning. Hamann began her career at Union Pacific in 1992 in the corporate audit staff. Over the years, she held various leadership positions within Human Resources, Corporate Treasury, Corporate Audit, and Marketing and Sales. She also serves on the Grupo Ferroviario Mexicano and TTX Company boards of directors, and Steel Dynamic's Board of Directors.

Eric Gehringer, Executive Vice President - Operations

Eric Gehringer has served as Executive Vice President-Operations since 2021. He is responsible for all aspects of Union Pacific's operations, including Transportation, Engineering, Mechanical, Dispatching, Customer Care and Support, and Premium Operations departments. Gehringer joined Union Pacific in 2006 as a management trainee and has held various positions, including senior vice president-Transportation, chief mechanical officer, and chief engineer. Before joining Union Pacific, he held positions at Northwest Airlines and Daimler Chrysler.

Kenny Rocker, Executive Vice President - Marketing & Sales

Kenny Rocker was appointed Executive Vice President-Marketing and Sales in August 2018. In this role, he oversees the company's three major business units: Bulk, Industrial, and Premium, along with Marketing and Sales Operations, Commercial Strategy, and Union Pacific's Mexico business, as well as the Loup Logistics subsidiary. Since joining Union Pacific in 1994, he has held various Marketing and Sales positions, including assignments in Automotive, Chemicals, and the Market Development and Sales Center. Prior to his current role, he served as vice president-Industrial.

Rahul Jalali, Executive Vice President and Chief Information Officer

Rahul Jalali was appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Information Officer in November 2020 and promoted to Executive Vice President in June 2023. He serves as the organization's technology thought leader, overseeing Union Pacific's integrated process and systems strategy. Before joining Union Pacific, Jalali spent 23 years with Walmart Inc., where he held increasing leadership roles, most recently as corporate vice president in the technology division serving Walmart International.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key risks to Union Pacific (UNP):

  1. Economic Downturns and Fluctuations in Freight Demand: Union Pacific's financial performance is highly dependent on the overall health of the U.S. and global economies. Economic slowdowns, recessions, or shifts in industrial production and consumer spending directly lead to reduced demand for the transportation of various goods, including agricultural products, industrial materials, automotive components, and consumer merchandise.
  2. Regulatory and Environmental Risks, including Declining Coal Traffic and Climate Change Impacts: Union Pacific faces risks from evolving environmental regulations and policies, particularly those impacting the demand for and transport of coal, which has historically been a significant commodity for railroads. Additionally, increasing frequency or severity of extreme weather events associated with climate change (such as floods, droughts, and wildfires) can disrupt rail operations, damage infrastructure, and lead to substantial repair costs and service interruptions.
  3. Intense Competition from Other Transportation Modes and Potential Technological Disruption: Union Pacific operates in a highly competitive freight transportation market, competing primarily with trucking companies, but also with barges and other rail carriers. Advances in competitor efficiency, capacity, pricing, or emerging technologies like autonomous long-haul trucking could divert freight volumes from Union Pacific, particularly for certain types of cargo or routes.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The emergence and ongoing development of autonomous, long-haul trucking technology poses a clear emerging threat to Union Pacific. If this technology matures and becomes commercially viable at scale, it could significantly reduce operating costs and increase efficiency within the trucking industry. This would intensify competition for Union Pacific by potentially making long-haul freight trucking a more cost-effective and competitive alternative to rail, particularly for intermodal shipments and various types of goods that currently utilize rail transportation.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Union Pacific (UNP) operates within significant addressable markets across the United States for its diverse range of rail transportation services.

Overall U.S. Rail Freight Market

The U.S. railroad market generated a revenue of USD 64,538.0 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 89,352.7 million by 2030, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.5% during 2025-2030. Another estimate for the U.S. rail freight transport market sized it at USD 74.17 billion in 2026, with a projection to reach USD 87.42 billion by 2031 at a CAGR of 3.34%. The U.S. freight rail industry is nearly an $80-billion sector.

Addressable Markets by Product or Service Category

Agricultural Products

  • Grain: In 2018, U.S. Class I railroads earned gross revenue of $5.8 billion from transporting grain. In 2023, U.S. railroads transported over 80 million tons of corn, 26 million tons of soybeans, and nearly 26 million tons of wheat. In 2025, U.S. Class I railroads originated 1.38 million rail grain carloads. Agricultural & Food represents a significant portion of the United States Rail Freight Transport market.
  • Fertilizers: More than 60% of fertilizer in the United States is transported by rail year-round. The global Agricultural Fertilizer Transportation Services Market, which includes rail transport, was estimated at USD 4.78 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 7.33 billion by 2032.
  • Food and Refrigerated Products: The U.S. refrigerated transportation market is projected to increase by USD 9.66 billion, at a CAGR of 12.5% from 2024 to 2029. The U.S. Refrigerated Transport Market Size was valued at USD 4.7 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to exceed USD 6.79 billion by 2033.

Energy Products (Coal, Petroleum, and Liquid Petroleum Gases)

  • Coal: The Mining & Minerals segment, which includes coal, held 21.60% of the United States Rail Freight Transport market share in 2025.
  • Petroleum and Liquid Petroleum Gases: The liquid bulk cargo type benefits from petrochemical output gains in rail freight.

Industrial Products (Construction Products, Industrial Chemicals, Plastics, Forest Products, Specialized Products, Metals and Ores, Soda Ash, and Sand)

  • Industrial Chemicals and Plastics: The U.S. Chemical Logistics Market, which encompasses various transportation modes including rail, is projected to reach USD 86.4 billion in 2025 and expand to USD 121.4 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 3.9%. In 2023, over 2.3 million freight rail cars of plastics, fertilizers, and other dry and liquid bulk chemical products were transported across the U.S. U.S. chemical carloads totaled 1.70 million in 2025.
  • Construction Products, Metals and Ores, Forest Products, Soda Ash, and Sand: While these are significant commodities for rail transportation, specific addressable market values solely for their rail transport are not distinctly quantified in the provided search results. However, the Mining & Minerals segment, which includes metals and ores, accounted for 21.60% of the United States Rail Freight Transport market share in 2025.

Automotive Products (Finished Automobiles, Automotive Parts)

  • Automotive products are transported via rail freight. While their specific addressable market value for rail transport is not clearly delineated in the provided data, they are a component of the broader rail freight market.

Intermodal

  • The North America intermodal freight transportation market was valued at USD 82.2 billion in 2023 and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of over 9% between 2024 and 2032. North America accounted for approximately 34% of the global intermodal freight transportation revenue share in 2023. Intermodal captured 47.20% of the United States Rail Freight Transport market share in 2025. In 2025, U.S. intermodal volume was 14.06 million containers and trailers. Intermodal freight accounts for approximately 25% of the revenue for major U.S. railroads.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Union Pacific (UNP) over the next 2-3 years:
  1. Core Pricing Gains: Union Pacific anticipates achieving core pricing gains that are expected to exceed inflation dollars. This strategy has consistently contributed to revenue growth and is a key focus for the company's financial performance.
  2. Volume Growth Across Key Segments: The company expects revenue growth to be driven by an increase in freight volumes across its market segments. Specifically, analysts project growth in Industrial Products and Bulk freight revenues. Strategic investments in new customer facilities and increased demand in segments like grain products and coal are expected to support this volume expansion.
  3. Intermodal Network Expansion and Enhanced Services: Union Pacific is strategically expanding its intermodal footprint by investing in new intermodal ramps and enhancing premium services. These initiatives are designed to meet evolving customer needs, expand market reach, and drive carload and intermodal growth.
  4. Operational Efficiencies and Technological Innovation: While primarily focused on cost management, continuous improvements in operational efficiency and the adoption of technological advancements contribute to revenue growth indirectly. Productivity enhancements, such as modernized locomotives and autonomous equipment, allow for better service delivery, improved capacity utilization, and a more competitive offering, which can attract and retain customers.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • In February 2022, Union Pacific approved a new share repurchase authorization, allowing the company to buy up to 100 million common shares by March 31, 2025.
  • The company repurchased 27.1 million shares in 2022 at a total cost of $6.3 billion.
  • Union Pacific's share repurchases totaled $705 million in 2023, $1.5 billion in 2024, and $2.679 billion in 2025.

Share Issuance

  • Union Pacific has not reported any significant share issuances over the last 3-5 years; instead, the number of outstanding shares has generally declined due to repurchases.

Outbound Investments

  • Union Pacific announced a proposed merger with Norfolk Southern in 2025, aimed at strengthening its leadership position in the railroad business and creating synergistic opportunities.

Capital Expenditures

  • Union Pacific's capital expenditures were $2.936 billion in 2021, $3.4 billion in 2022, $3.606 billion in 2023, $3.4 billion in 2024, and $3.791 billion in 2025.
  • The company plans capital expenditures of $3.3 billion for fiscal year 2026.
  • A primary focus of these investments includes upgrading and replacing infrastructure like rail, ties, and ballast, modernizing the locomotive fleet, acquiring freight cars, and expanding capacity and technology projects to enhance operational efficiency and growth.

Better Bets vs. Union Pacific (UNP)

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Peer Comparisons

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Financials

UNPCSXNSCCPCNIJBHTMedian
NameUnion Pa.CSX Norfolk .Canadian.Canadian.JB Hunt . 
Mkt Price283.1248.51322.7488.72122.78275.00198.89
Mkt Cap167.990.272.579.675.126.077.3
Rev LTM24,70014,15112,18514,98417,28012,13414,568
Op Inc LTM9,9334,9304,570-3,9196,5268934,750
FCF LTM5,6981,9041,6182,0433,5721,0321,974
FCF 3Y Avg5,5342,5361,2992,0153,5175552,275
CFO LTM9,5204,6303,7555,1297,1501,6274,880
CFO 3Y Avg9,2055,1323,5884,9366,9741,5905,034

Growth & Margins

UNPCSXNSCCPCNIJBHTMedian
NameUnion Pa.CSX Norfolk .Canadian.Canadian.JB Hunt . 
Rev Chg LTM1.9%-0.9%0.6%1.1%0.5%0.6%0.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.5%-2.2%-2.0%19.3%-0.8%-5.7%-1.4%
Rev Chg Q3.2%1.7%0.2%-2.5%-0.5%4.6%0.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.8%0.4%0.0%-0.6%-0.1%1.1%0.2%
Op Inc Chg LTM2.3%-3.5%-8.2%2.5%2.1%9.6%2.2%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg0.5%-6.3%-2.9%-69.6%-3.4%-9.8%-4.8%
Op Mgn LTM40.2%34.8%37.5%-26.2%37.8%7.4%36.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg39.4%35.9%37.7%-26.1%37.9%7.1%36.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.0%1.4%-0.3%-0.6%-0.3%0.2%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM38.5%32.7%30.8%34.2%41.4%13.4%33.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg37.8%35.7%29.6%33.9%40.8%13.0%34.8%
FCF/Rev LTM23.1%13.5%13.3%13.6%20.7%8.5%13.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg22.7%17.6%10.7%13.8%20.6%4.6%15.7%

Valuation

UNPCSXNSCCPCNIJBHTMedian
NameUnion Pa.CSX Norfolk .Canadian.Canadian.JB Hunt . 
Mkt Cap167.990.272.579.675.126.077.3
P/S6.86.45.95.34.32.15.6
P/Op Inc16.918.315.9-20.311.529.116.4
P/EBIT15.918.717.312.710.529.016.6
P/E23.329.627.119.516.041.825.2
P/CFO17.619.519.315.510.516.016.8
Total Yield6.2%4.2%3.7%6.2%9.2%3.0%5.2%
Dividend Yield1.9%0.8%0.0%1.0%2.9%0.7%0.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.8%3.8%2.2%2.8%5.1%3.1%3.4%
D/E0.20.20.20.30.30.10.2
Net D/E0.20.20.20.30.30.00.2

Returns

UNPCSXNSCCPCNIJBHTMedian
NameUnion Pa.CSX Norfolk .Canadian.Canadian.JB Hunt . 
1M Rtn4.0%3.2%3.0%-1.1%2.6%-3.5%2.8%
3M Rtn15.6%17.5%12.4%11.0%16.6%26.5%16.1%
6M Rtn22.5%35.3%11.8%21.3%23.5%34.3%23.0%
12M Rtn23.0%48.9%26.4%12.3%22.4%85.6%24.7%
3Y Rtn49.3%52.1%52.0%15.9%13.7%57.7%50.6%
1M Excs Rtn8.3%6.0%6.1%0.4%4.4%-1.9%5.2%
3M Excs Rtn2.4%3.8%-1.0%-1.7%4.0%13.3%3.1%
6M Excs Rtn13.9%25.2%3.7%10.3%14.4%30.9%14.2%
12M Excs Rtn3.0%26.9%5.7%-9.1%-1.3%62.1%4.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-22.7%-21.2%-18.2%-56.2%-61.0%-15.5%-21.9%

Comparison Analyses

null

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Railroad24,51024,25024,11924,87521,804
Total24,51024,25024,11924,87521,804


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20022001200019991998
Railroad2,3331,0581,9031,822433
Trucking71465320-508
Corporate services an other operations-80-138-53-38-96
Total2,3249661,9031,804-171


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024
Railroad7,1386,747
Total7,1386,747


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20022001200019991998
Railroad31,31430,56329,58128,88028,357
Trucking775751651865823
Corporate services an other operations675237267143194
Total32,76431,55130,49929,88829,374


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$283.12 
Market Cap ($ Bil)167.9 
First Trading Date01/02/1980 
Distance from 52W High0.0% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$267.29$242.96
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA5.9%16.5%
 3M1YR
Volatility28.5%22.1%
Downside Capture-82.7716.41
Upside Capture8.0037.08
Correlation (SPY)-1.8%20.5%
UNP Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.010.000.030.340.360.60
Up Beta-0.550.070.280.250.390.66
Down Beta-0.230.190.290.710.530.60
Up Capture48%-2%14%35%27%26%
Bmk +ve Days11244067140429
Stock +ve Days13223772139387
Down Capture6%-15%-66%9%25%79%
Bmk -ve Days10172358112321
Stock -ve Days8192653113363

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with UNP
UNP22.6%22.1%0.84-
Sector ETF (XLI)23.4%16.6%1.0943.7%
Equity (SPY)20.7%12.5%1.2220.3%
Gold (GLD)23.0%27.8%0.732.6%
Commodities (DBC)22.9%18.6%0.97-7.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)13.6%13.8%0.6840.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-41.8%42.8%-1.142.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with UNP
UNP7.7%22.9%0.28-
Sector ETF (XLI)14.0%17.6%0.6364.5%
Equity (SPY)13.3%17.1%0.6050.5%
Gold (GLD)17.8%18.3%0.795.2%
Commodities (DBC)7.6%19.5%0.2914.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)3.1%18.9%0.0651.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)13.2%53.5%0.4312.7%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with UNP
UNP15.3%25.3%0.58-
Sector ETF (XLI)14.8%20.0%0.6573.8%
Equity (SPY)15.7%17.9%0.7562.9%
Gold (GLD)11.6%16.1%0.590.0%
Commodities (DBC)6.2%18.0%0.2725.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.6%20.7%0.2353.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)57.9%66.2%0.9812.1%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date6152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity29.5 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 5312026-0.6%
Average Daily Volume2.5 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest11.7 days
Basic Shares Quantity593.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares5.0%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 6/2/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
4/23/20268.8%6.2%6.4%
1/27/20260.7%1.9%14.4%
10/23/2025-2.3%-3.9%-1.8%
7/24/2025-4.5%-2.5%-2.5%
4/24/2025-2.0%-1.9%1.4%
1/23/20255.2%5.8%4.1%
10/24/2024-4.4%-3.8%-1.0%
7/25/2024-0.9%3.9%2.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101116
# Negative14138
Median Positive1.8%2.5%4.8%
Median Negative-2.4%-3.8%-2.1%
Max Positive10.4%7.4%14.4%
Max Negative-6.8%-13.1%-12.4%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
4/23/20268.8%6.2%6.4%
1/27/20260.7%1.9%14.4%
10/23/2025-2.3%-3.9%-1.8%
7/24/2025-4.5%-2.5%-2.5%
4/24/2025-2.0%-1.9%1.4%
1/23/20255.2%5.8%4.1%
10/24/2024-4.4%-3.8%-1.0%
7/25/2024-0.9%3.9%2.9%
4/25/20245.0%1.3%0.3%
1/25/2024-0.3%0.7%6.0%
10/19/20232.1%-0.3%6.5%
7/26/202310.4%7.4%3.5%
4/20/20230.3%-5.2%-1.6%
1/24/2023-3.3%-4.7%-8.9%
10/20/2022-6.8%-2.1%4.9%
7/21/2022-1.2%2.5%12.8%
4/21/2022-1.1%-4.2%-12.4%
1/20/20221.1%2.3%4.8%
10/21/20211.4%5.0%5.4%
7/22/20211.1%-0.3%3.0%
4/22/2021-2.4%1.2%-0.7%
1/21/2021-4.7%-10.9%-4.2%
10/22/2020-6.2%-13.1%2.5%
7/23/2020-2.4%-0.8%5.9%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101116
# Negative14138
Median Positive1.8%2.5%4.8%
Median Negative-2.4%-3.8%-2.1%
Max Positive10.4%7.4%14.4%
Max Negative-6.8%-13.1%-12.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202604/23/202610-Q
12/31/202502/06/202610-K
09/30/202510/23/202510-Q
06/30/202507/24/202510-Q
03/31/202504/24/202510-Q
12/31/202402/07/202510-K
09/30/202410/24/202410-Q
06/30/202407/25/202410-Q
03/31/202404/25/202410-Q
12/31/202302/09/202410-K
09/30/202310/19/202310-Q
06/30/202307/26/202310-Q
03/31/202304/20/202310-Q
12/31/202202/10/202310-K
09/30/202210/20/202210-Q
06/30/202207/21/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202604/23/202610-Q
12/31/202502/06/202610-K
09/30/202510/23/202510-Q
06/30/202507/24/202510-Q
03/31/202504/24/202510-Q
12/31/202402/07/202510-K
09/30/202410/24/202410-Q
06/30/202407/25/202410-Q
03/31/202404/25/202410-Q
12/31/202302/09/202410-K
09/30/202310/19/202310-Q
06/30/202307/26/202310-Q
03/31/202304/20/202310-Q
12/31/202202/10/202310-K
09/30/202210/20/202210-Q
06/30/202207/21/202210-Q
03/31/202204/21/202210-Q
12/31/202102/04/202210-K
09/30/202110/21/202110-Q
06/30/202107/22/202110-Q
03/31/202104/22/202110-Q
12/31/202002/05/202110-K
09/30/202010/22/202010-Q
06/30/202007/23/202010-Q
03/31/202004/23/202010-Q
12/31/201902/07/202010-K
09/30/201910/17/201910-Q
06/30/201907/18/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 5/31/2026

Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/23/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 EPS Growth 5.0% 00AffirmedGuidance: 5.0% for 2026
2026 Capital Expenditures 3.30 Bil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 3.30 Bil for 2026

Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/27/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Capital Expenditures 3.30 Bil -2.9% LoweredGuidance: 3.40 Bil for 2025
2026 EPS Growth 5.0%    

Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/23/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2025 Capital Plan 3.40 Bil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 3.40 Bil for 2025
2025 Share Repurchases4.00 Bil4.25 Bil4.50 Bil0 AffirmedGuidance: 4.25 Bil for 2025

Insider Activity

Updated 7/2/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Gehringer, Eric JEVP OPERATIONSDirectSell6042026263.962,991789,50411,353,317Form
2Hamann, Jennifer LEVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICERDirectSell4282026274.702,000549,40031,492,120Form
3Rocker, Kenyatta GEVP MARKETING & SALESDirectSell4282026271.7627,3877,442,69116,605,062Form
4Gehringer, Eric JEVP OPERATIONSDirectSell4022026234.931,999469,62510,800,523Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Gehringer, Eric JEVP OPERATIONSDirectSell6042026263.962,991789,50411,353,317Form
2Hamann, Jennifer LEVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICERDirectSell4282026274.702,000549,40031,492,120Form
3Rocker, Kenyatta GEVP MARKETING & SALESDirectSell4282026271.7627,3877,442,69116,605,062Form
4Gehringer, Eric JEVP OPERATIONSDirectSell4022026234.931,999469,62510,800,523Form
Core Cache Last Updated: 7/7/2026