United Homes (UHG)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $1.3 | Market Cap: $76.4 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Homebuilding
United Homes (UHG)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $1.3Market Cap: $76.4 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Homebuilding
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Housing & Community Development. Themes include Residential Construction, Suburban & Exurban Growth, and Affordable Housing Solutions. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -124%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -155% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 38x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -23% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 59% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 105% | ||
| Key risksUHG key risks include [1] a mass leadership exodus and board turmoil due to conflict with its controlling chairman, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Housing & Community Development. Themes include Residential Construction, Suburban & Exurban Growth, and Affordable Housing Solutions. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -124%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -155% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 38x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -23% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 59% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 105% |
| Key risksUHG key risks include [1] a mass leadership exodus and board turmoil due to conflict with its controlling chairman, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
UHG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the period from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, United Homes Group (UHG) experienced a significant stock price decline, evidenced by an 81.15% drop over the 12 months leading up to December 5, 2025, and hitting a 52-week low of $0.99 on November 20, 2025. Key factors contributing to this movement include:
1. Q2 2025 Financial Performance and Stock Slip: United Homes Group reported a net loss of $6.3 million for the second quarter of 2025, which included a $6.2 million fair value adjustment primarily related to contingent earn-out liability. Despite reporting improved gross margins, the company's stock experienced a decline following these earnings in early August 2025.
2. Weak Q3 2025 Preliminary Unit Statistics: In October 2025, United Homes Group announced preliminary third-quarter unit statistics, revealing a 5% year-over-year decline in net new orders. This was primarily attributed to weaker demand in July and delays in community openings earlier in the year, indicating operational challenges.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| UHG Return | � | � | 3% | -16% | -50% | -68% | � |
| Peers Return | 25% | 48% | -21% | 82% | -0% | 0% | 166% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| UHG Win Rate | � | 56% | 75% | 67% | 42% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 73% | 42% | 60% | 58% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| UHG Max Drawdown | � | � | -0% | -48% | -52% | -76% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -49% | -4% | -42% | -0% | -7% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DHI, LEN, PHM, NVR, MTH.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | UHG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -74.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 297.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to CVCO, DHI, LEN, PHM, NVR
In The Past
United Homes's stock fell -74.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/31/2023. A -74.9% loss requires a 297.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| United Homes Earnings Notes | ||
| Can United Homes Stock Recover If Markets Fall? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to UHG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.4% | 6.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.4% | 6.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for United Homes
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 117.52 |
| Mkt Cap | 22.8 |
| Rev LTM | 14,049 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,589 |
| FCF LTM | 649 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,652 |
| CFO LTM | 663 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,720 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -5.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | -5.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 22.8 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 9.3 |
| P/E | 10.9 |
| P/CFO | 14.4 |
| Total Yield | 9.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -9.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 10.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -13.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 55.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -11.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -2.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -25.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -8.6% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Great Southern Homes (GSH) South Carolina | 417 | ||||
| Rosewood | 4 | ||||
| Other | 0 | ||||
| Corporate | 0 | ||||
| Single Segment | 477 | 433 | 327 | 272 | |
| Total | 421 | 477 | 433 | 327 | 272 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Great Southern Homes (GSH) South Carolina | 224 | ||||
| Rosewood | 31 | ||||
| Corporate | 26 | ||||
| Other | 17 | ||||
| Total | 299 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | -7.6% | -7.6% | -19.3% |
| 8/7/2025 | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.4% |
| 3/12/2025 | -5.3% | -3.4% | -25.2% |
| 11/8/2024 | 4.3% | 3.0% | -26.3% |
| 8/8/2024 | 3.7% | 6.1% | -1.7% |
| 3/14/2024 | -8.6% | -5.4% | -19.4% |
| 11/9/2023 | 1.5% | 7.8% | 1.4% |
| 8/10/2023 | -3.5% | -10.5% | -24.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| # Negative | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 2.5% | 4.9% | 2.9% |
| Median Negative | -6.5% | -5.4% | -24.0% |
| Max Positive | 4.3% | 7.8% | 4.4% |
| Max Negative | -8.6% | -10.5% | -26.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5142025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3142025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8142023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 12312022 | 7312023 | 424B3 12/31/2022 |
| 6302022 | 10112022 | S-4 6/30/2022 |
External Quote Links
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