TWFG (TWFG)
Market Price (8/15/2026): $26.78 | Market Cap: $350.7 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Insurance Brokers
TWFG (TWFG)
Market Price (8/15/2026): $26.78Market Cap: $350.7 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Insurance Brokers
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.5%, Dividend Yield is 6.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.1% Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -19% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Digital Payments, Digital Insurance Platforms, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -53% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 40x Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.9% Key risksTWFG key risks include [1] substantial financial losses from a surge in claims following catastrophic events such as hurricanes and floods. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.5%, Dividend Yield is 6.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.1% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -19% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Digital Payments, Digital Insurance Platforms, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -53% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 40x |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.9% |
| Key risksTWFG key risks include [1] substantial financial losses from a surge in claims following catastrophic events such as hurricanes and floods. |
Qualitative Assessment
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TWFG (TWFG) stock has gained about 45% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. TWFG reported robust second-quarter fiscal 2026 results that significantly surpassed analyst expectations. The company announced its Q2 2026 financial results on August 5, 2026, for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. Total revenues increased 45.1% year-over-year to $87.5 million, exceeding analysts' consensus estimates of $77.34 million. Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $0.38, beating the consensus estimate of $0.26 by $0.12, or 46.2%. Furthermore, adjusted EBITDA increased by 75.8% to $26.6 million, and the adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 530 basis points to 30.4%.
2. The company experienced substantial growth in its higher-margin Managing General Agency (MGA) programs, driving revenue and margin expansion. MGA operations were a primary catalyst for growth in fiscal Q2 2026. MGA commission income surged by 290% to $27.3 million and constituted 35% of total revenue for the quarter, a significant increase from 15% in the prior-year period. This strategic shift towards MGA offerings, which carry higher commission rates (above 20% compared to approximately 12% for the core Agency-in-a-Box network), led to total revenue growth outpacing written premium growth by nearly 20 percentage points. MGA written premium more than doubled, showing a 114.8% increase.
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TWFG (TWFG) stock has gained about 45% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. TWFG reported robust second-quarter fiscal 2026 results that significantly surpassed analyst expectations. The company announced its Q2 2026 financial results on August 5, 2026, for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. Total revenues increased 45.1% year-over-year to $87.5 million, exceeding analysts' consensus estimates of $77.34 million. Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $0.38, beating the consensus estimate of $0.26 by $0.12, or 46.2%. Furthermore, adjusted EBITDA increased by 75.8% to $26.6 million, and the adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 530 basis points to 30.4%.
2. The company experienced substantial growth in its higher-margin Managing General Agency (MGA) programs, driving revenue and margin expansion. MGA operations were a primary catalyst for growth in fiscal Q2 2026. MGA commission income surged by 290% to $27.3 million and constituted 35% of total revenue for the quarter, a significant increase from 15% in the prior-year period. This strategic shift towards MGA offerings, which carry higher commission rates (above 20% compared to approximately 12% for the core Agency-in-a-Box network), led to total revenue growth outpacing written premium growth by nearly 20 percentage points. MGA written premium more than doubled, showing a 114.8% increase.
3. TWFG raised its full-year fiscal 2026 financial guidance, signaling continued optimism for future performance. Following its strong second-quarter results, the company increased its full-year 2026 outlook. TWFG now anticipates total revenues in the range of $300 million to $320 million, up from previous guidance of $285 million to $300 million. The revised organic revenue growth expectation is now 13% to 17%, an increase from the earlier projection of 10% to 15%. Additionally, the adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to range from 23% to 27%, up from the prior guidance of 22% to 25%.
4. Strategic acquisitions and improved customer retention contributed to increased premium and consolidated growth. Growth during the quarter was bolstered by contributions from recent acquisitions, including the purchase of Iowa-based Fortress Insurance Services on May 1, 2026. The company also achieved its highest consolidated written-premium retention rate to date, reaching 93% in fiscal Q2 2026, an improvement from 89% in the same period of the prior year. Total written premium increased by 26.6% to $569.9 million.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 44.1% change in TWFG stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 19.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 18.58 | 26.77 | 44.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 234 | 279 | 19.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.4% | 3.1% | -7.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 34.7 | 39.9 | 15.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 15 | 13 | 13.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 44.1% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TWFG | 44.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.0% | -35.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | 11.6% | 7.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 7.1% change in TWFG stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 28.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 24.99 | 26.77 | 7.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 218 | 279 | 28.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 56.7 | 39.9 | -29.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 15 | 13 | 14.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 7.1% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TWFG | 7.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.5% | -16.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | 9.4% | 20.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -13.3% change in TWFG stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -64.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 30.87 | 26.77 | -13.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 201 | 279 | 39.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.0% | 3.1% | 54.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 112.6 | 39.9 | -64.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 15 | 13 | 13.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -13.3% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TWFG | -13.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 23.9% | -10.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | 12.4% | 22.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TWFG | ||
| Market (SPY) | 75.6% | 12.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | 72.0% | 28.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TWFG Return | - | - | - | 40% | -7% | -6% | 22% |
| Peers Return | 32% | -22% | 32% | 40% | -19% | 2% | 57% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TWFG Win Rate | - | - | - | 67% | 58% | 62% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 38% | 60% | 65% | 47% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TWFG Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -34% | -41% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -40% | -21% | -22% | -38% | -33% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GSHD, BWIN, BRO, AJG, AON.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/14/2026 (YTD)
About TWFG (TWFG)
TWFG (The Woodlands Financial Group) is a leading independent distribution platform for personal and commercial insurance across the United States. The company serves as a vital intermediary, connecting over 300 insurance carriers with individuals and businesses seeking coverage through its extensive network of more than 2,400 independent TWFG Agencies. At its core, TWFG facilitates the placement of insurance contracts, acting as an agent for both the end-clients and the insurance carriers.
TWFG's business model, developed "by agents for agents," empowers independent insurance professionals by offering a robust platform of resources. These include proprietary technology, comprehensive training, administrative and marketing support, M&A services, and critical access to a diverse portfolio of insurance carriers and specialized programs across all lines of business (personal, commercial, life, and health). This approach provides TWFG Agencies with greater flexibility and market reach than traditional captive agencies, and significant scale advantages often unavailable to smaller independent agencies. The company generates the vast majority of its revenue from commissions paid by insurance carriers, sharing a portion of these with its partner agencies and retaining 100% for its wholly-owned Corporate Branches.
With over $1.0 billion in Total Written Premium annually, TWFG ranks among the largest personal lines agencies and a top player across all P&C lines in the U.S. The company is licensed in all 50 states and maintains a physical presence in 41 states and the District of Columbia, with strong concentrations in Texas, California, and Louisiana. TWFG's commitment to a client-first philosophy and continuous innovation positions it as a key force in the evolving landscape of insurance distribution.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for TWFG:
- RE/MAX for independent insurance agencies: Like RE/MAX provides a brand, network, and resources for independent real estate agents, TWFG offers a comprehensive platform, technology, and access to over 300 insurance carriers for independent insurance agencies.
- Shopify for independent insurance agencies: Similar to how Shopify empowers independent merchants with tools and a platform to run their businesses, TWFG equips independent insurance agencies with proprietary technology, training, and carrier access to manage and grow their insurance operations.
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- Insurance Distribution Platform: TWFG provides an independent distribution platform that facilitates the sale of personal, commercial, life, and health insurance products from over 300 carriers to clients across the United States, earning commissions.
- Agency Empowerment Services: TWFG offers its network of independent agencies comprehensive support, including proprietary technology, training, marketing, premium financing, and M&A services, to enhance their operational efficiency and growth.
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TWFG's major customers are the insurance carriers with whom it maintains agency agreements. These carriers provide the vast majority of TWFG's total revenues, comprising approximately 92% and 91% in 2023 and 2022, respectively, through commission income for the placement of insurance contracts. TWFG has relationships with over 300 insurance carriers, but the names of these individual customer companies are not specified in the provided text.
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Richard F. ("Gordy") Bunch III, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Bunch founded TWFG in 2001 and has served as its Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer since its inception. He has over 28 years of experience in the insurance industry. Prior to founding TWFG, Mr. Bunch worked as a Manager, Financial Services at Prudential, an Associate General Agent at American National, and an Agent at Texas Farm Bureau. He is a decorated U.S. Coast Guard veteran, having served as Petty Officer 3rd Class. Mr. Bunch was named the 2015 Ernst & Young Products & Services Entrepreneur of the Year for the Gulf Coast Region. He also served on The Woodlands Township Board of Directors from 2012 to 2022, including as the elected Chairman from 2016 to 2022.
Janice E. Zwinggi, Chief Financial Officer
Ms. Zwinggi has served as TWFG's Chief Financial Officer since September 2019. Before joining TWFG, she was the Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for Hudson Insurance Group from 2018 to 2019. From 2007 to 2018, Ms. Zwinggi was the Vice President and Controller of Argo Group International Holdings. She also held the positions of CFO and Treasurer at Texas General Agency, Inc. Managing General Agency from 1987 to 2007. Ms. Zwinggi began her career as a Senior Auditor at Price Waterhouse (PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP).
Katherine C. Nolan, President
Ms. Nolan was promoted to President on November 13, 2025. Prior to this promotion, she served as Chief Operating Officer for more than 16 years. Ms. Nolan has over 30 years of experience in the property and casualty insurance industry. Her previous roles include President of Affirmative Retail Inc., Executive Vice President of Planning and Integration for Affirmative Insurance Holdings, and Senior Vice President of Operations at Bristol West Insurance Company.
Mohan Vijayagopal, Chief Technology Officer
Mr. Vijayagopal joined TWFG as Chief Technology Officer on November 13, 2025. He brings over 20 years of technology leadership experience, with expertise in enterprise transformation, cloud architecture, core platform modernization, and AI strategy and technology delivery.
Julie E. Benes, Chief Legal Officer
Ms. Benes was appointed Chief Legal Officer on November 13, 2025, having previously served as General Counsel for over 6 years. In her role, she is responsible for all legal and compliance matters, with a strategic focus on business growth and mergers and acquisitions.
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1. Dependence on insurance carrier relationships and commission rates: TWFG's business model is heavily reliant on commission income received from insurance carriers, which constituted approximately 92% and 91% of its total revenues in 2023 and 2022, respectively. These commission rates are determined by insurance carriers and may change at their discretion upon renewal, directly impacting TWFG's revenue and profitability.
2. Reliance on attracting and retaining independent agencies: The company's distribution platform serves over 2,400 TWFG Agencies, with the vast majority of agents being non-employees. MGA Agencies, which comprise a significant portion of this network, are independent and not exclusive to TWFG. The ability to attract, retain, and support these independent agencies is crucial for TWFG to maintain its distribution capabilities and growth.
3. Geographic concentration of business: A significant portion of TWFG's business is concentrated in Texas, California, and Louisiana. Adverse economic conditions, regulatory changes, or catastrophic events in these states could disproportionately affect the company's operations and financial performance.
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The addressable market for TWFG's main products or services, specifically the total Property & Casualty (P&C) addressable market for Total Written Premium in the United States, is approximately $868.1 billion as of 2022.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for TWFG over the next 2-3 years:
- Expansion of the TWFG Agency Network and Geographic Footprint: TWFG aims to grow its revenue by continuing to attract new independent agencies (Branches and MGA Agencies) to its platform. The company is licensed in all 50 states and has a physical presence in 41, indicating significant room to expand its reach and increase penetration in states where it currently has less presence. Their model offers autonomy, entrepreneurial opportunity, and comprehensive support, which serves as a draw for new agents.
- Strategic Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A): TWFG explicitly states that it sustains growth by funding M&A and participates in M&A activities with its Branches as part of its commitment to support their continued growth. This inorganic growth strategy allows the company to rapidly expand its market share and premium volume.
- Investment in Technology and Enhanced Agent Productivity Tools: The company highlights its continuous investment in improving technology, including a singular, integrated agency management system, proprietary virtual assistants, and an industry-leading mobile application for clients. By providing advanced tools, resources, and administrative support, TWFG enables its agencies to operate more efficiently, manage clients effectively, and expand their "Books of Business," directly contributing to higher premium generation.
- Broadening Product and Service Offerings to Meet Evolving Client Needs: TWFG offers all lines of insurance, multiple distribution contract options, and proprietary programs, catering to diverse client needs. The platform provides its agencies with access to over 300 insurance carriers and specialized training, allowing them to offer a wide variety of insurance products and solutions. This comprehensive portfolio enables TWFG Agencies to penetrate new market segments and secure more business, leading to increased commission revenues for TWFG.
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Outbound Investments
- TWFG participates in M&A activities with its Branches as part of its commitment to support their continued growth.
- These M&A activities are primarily funded using cash flow from operations.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures are made to improve technology.
- Investments are also made to create programs and expand services to support TWFG Agencies.
- These expenditures are sustained primarily using cash flow from operations.
Peer Outperformance in Insurance Brokers
null| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investment Banking & Brokerage | 13 | 9.6% | 132.3% | 139.6% | IBKR 499% · SNEX 245% · GS 186% |
| Reinsurance | 6 | 21.0% | 84.6% | 120.9% | SPNT 140% · MTG 134% · RGA 133% |
| Diversified Banks | 12 | 47.2% | 132.3% | 111.2% | CM 163% · JPM 157% · RY 147% |
| Life & Health Insurance | 19 | 21.1% | 60.5% | 95.8% | UNM 301% · FG 261% · MFC 178% |
| Property & Casualty Insurance | 42 | 13.9% | 76.5% | 68.2% | ASIC 2469900% · HRTG 400% · UVE 275% |
| Regional Banks | 264 | 34.7% | 84.5% | 66.8% | ESQ 419% · GCBC 385% · VBNK 290% |
| Multi-Sector Holdings | 5 | 4.5% | 18.7% | 66.8% | JEF 91% · BRK-B 75% · VOYA 67% |
| Multi-line Insurance | 9 | 18.5% | 82.7% | 63.1% | GNW 175% · L 107% · SLF 89% |
| Consumer Finance | 30 | 15.2% | 92.8% | 41.2% | ENVA 726% · EZPW 379% · FCFS 175% |
| Insurance Brokers ← | 15 | -10.4% | 11.5% | 33.9% | LIFE 604% · AJG 89% · ARX 86% |
| Financial Exchanges & Data | 15 | -6.0% | 10.9% | 33.5% | VIRT 176% · CBOE 149% · NDAQ 63% |
| Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance | 13 | -24.3% | 33.7% | 23.5% | FNMA 460% · FMCC 445% · IOR 69% |
| Asset Management & Custody Banks | 83 | -6.2% | 21.2% | 23.4% | VCTR 295% · WT 291% · SII 262% |
| Specialized Finance | 3 | 22.9% | 52.3% | 4.3% | EFC 38% · CACC 4% · HASI -8% |
| Mortgage REITs | 34 | -4.1% | 12.8% | -8.6% | RITM 72% · DX 41% · NREF 38% |
| Transaction & Payment Processing Services | 15 | 0.5% | 1.6% | -43.0% | V 63% · MA 62% · CPAY 59% |
| Diversified Capital Markets | 21 | -33.7% | -10.8% | -46.9% | BTCS 467% · OPY 187% · LPLA 159% |
| Diversified Financial Services | 5 | -15.3% | 63.9% | -47.8% | FRHC 127% · EQH 88% · TMS -48% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| TWFG Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Is TWFG Stock Built to Withstand a Pullback? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 68.42 |
| Mkt Cap | 13.1 |
| Rev LTM | 4,193 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,682 |
| FCF LTM | 753 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 634 |
| CFO LTM | 805 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 682 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 22.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 18.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 27.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 14.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 15.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.8% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $26.77 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/18/2024 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -9.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $24.95 | $23.30 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | up |
| Distance from DMA | 7.3% | 14.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 45.6% | 45.0% |
| Downside Capture | -225.96 | -43.09 |
| Upside Capture | -3.52 | -38.37 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -33.0% | -11.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -1.93 | -1.26 | -1.37 | -0.66 | -0.40 | 0.15 |
| Up Beta | -4.35 | -1.83 | -2.05 | -0.26 | -0.13 | 0.20 |
| Down Beta | -0.03 | -0.22 | -0.59 | -1.04 | -0.56 | 0.53 |
| Up Capture | -92% | -26% | -34% | -35% | -24% | 2% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 25 | 36 | 67 | 129 | 261 |
| Down Capture | -301% | -331% | -338% | -116% | -63% | -0% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 18 | 26 | 58 | 122 | 244 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TWFG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TWFG | -5.6% | 44.9% | 0.00 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 11.6% | 14.5% | 0.53 | 22.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.5% | 12.8% | 1.25 | -11.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 30.0% | 28.5% | 0.91 | -16.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 38.1% | 20.1% | 1.49 | -12.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.4% | 13.9% | 0.73 | 17.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -48.7% | 42.8% | -1.44 | 1.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TWFG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TWFG | 3.5% | 43.5% | 0.31 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 10.8% | 18.4% | 0.45 | 28.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.2% | 0.60 | 12.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.5% | 18.6% | 0.85 | -5.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.6% | 19.6% | 0.38 | -3.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.3% | 18.9% | 0.02 | 23.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.2% | 52.8% | 0.34 | 10.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TWFG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TWFG | 1.7% | 43.5% | 0.31 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 13.8% | 22.0% | 0.57 | 28.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 12.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.0% | 16.2% | 0.60 | -5.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.7% | 18.0% | 0.34 | -3.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 23.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.1% | 1.00 | 10.2% |
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Returns Analyses
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 8/6/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Organic Revenue Growth | 13.0% | 15.0% | 17.0% | 2.5% | Raised | Guidance: 12.5% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Total Revenues | 300.00 Mil | 310.00 Mil | 320.00 Mil | 6.0% | Raised | Guidance: 292.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 23.0% | 25.0% | 27.0% | 1.5% | Raised | Guidance: 23.5% for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/25/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Total Revenues | 285.00 Mil | 292.50 Mil | 300.00 Mil | 18.2% | Higher New | Actual: 247.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 15.0% | 17.5% | 20.0% | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 22.0% | 23.5% | 25.0% | 1.5% | Higher New | Actual: 22.0% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Organic Revenue Growth Rate | 10.0% | 12.5% | 15.0% | 0.0% | Same New | Actual: 12.5% for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/21/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Doak, Michael | See Footnote 2 | Buy | 6082026 | 19.45 | 7,865 | 152,974 | 14,890,667 | Form | |
| 2 | Doak, Michael | See Footnote 2 | Buy | 6042026 | 19.09 | 11,000 | 209,990 | 14,464,913 | Form | |
| 3 | Doak, Michael | See Footnote 2 | Buy | 6042026 | 18.62 | 22,994 | 428,148 | 13,903,964 | Form | |
| 4 | Doak, Michael | See Footnote 2 | Buy | 6022026 | 19.25 | 16,500 | 317,625 | 13,931,764 | Form | |
| 5 | Doak, Michael | See Footnote 2 | Buy | 6022026 | 19.33 | 16,500 | 318,945 | 13,670,717 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Doak, Michael | See Footnote 2 | Buy | 6082026 | 19.45 | 7,865 | 152,974 | 14,890,667 | Form | |
| 2 | Doak, Michael | See Footnote 2 | Buy | 6042026 | 19.09 | 11,000 | 209,990 | 14,464,913 | Form | |
| 3 | Doak, Michael | See Footnote 2 | Buy | 6042026 | 18.62 | 22,994 | 428,148 | 13,903,964 | Form | |
| 4 | Doak, Michael | See Footnote 2 | Buy | 6022026 | 19.25 | 16,500 | 317,625 | 13,931,764 | Form | |
| 5 | Doak, Michael | See Footnote 2 | Buy | 6022026 | 19.33 | 16,500 | 318,945 | 13,670,717 | Form | |
| 6 | Doak, Michael | See Footnote 2 | Buy | 5292026 | 18.87 | 11,330 | 213,797 | 13,034,037 | Form | |
| 7 | Doak, Michael | See Footnote 2 | Buy | 5292026 | 18.87 | 11,000 | 207,570 | 12,820,240 | Form | |
| 8 | Doak, Michael | See Footnote 2 | Buy | 5272026 | 18.62 | 24,880 | 463,266 | 12,445,571 | Form | |
| 9 | Doak, Michael | See Footnote 2 | Buy | 5272026 | 19.23 | 11,000 | 211,530 | 12,374,851 | Form | |
| 10 | Doak, Michael | See Footnote 2 | Buy | 5272026 | 18.89 | 11,000 | 207,790 | 11,948,265 | Form | |
| 11 | Doak, Michael | See Footnote 2 | Buy | 5222026 | 18.52 | 17,538 | 324,804 | 11,510,513 | Form | |
| 12 | Doak, Michael | See Footnote 2 | Buy | 5222026 | 18.79 | 15,745 | 295,849 | 11,348,784 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 15, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
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