Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -29%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 86x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%
Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.2%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.1%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Digital Payments, Digital Insurance Platforms, Show more.
 
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -29%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Digital Payments, Digital Insurance Platforms, Show more.
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 86x
5 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.2%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.1%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TWFG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The requested information for the time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, is not available as this period is in the future.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TWFG Return------9%-9%
Peers Return5%27%-3%7%19%-11%47%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TWFG Win Rate----60%50% 
Peers Win Rate58%65%38%43%58%42% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TWFG Max Drawdown------23% 
Peers Max Drawdown-27%-9%-19%-7%-1%-14% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NP, WTW, MMC, AON, AJG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

TWFG has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLFS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-26.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven525 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-43.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven76.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven295 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven338 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-83.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven515.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven4470 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About TWFG (TWFG)

Better Bets than TWFG (TWFG)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleTopic
0DASHBOARDS 
1Is TWFG Stock Built to Withstand a Pullback?Return
Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TWFG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
15.2%15.2%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.5%-2.5%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
15.2%15.2%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.5%-2.5%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for TWFG

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TWFGNPWTWMMCAONAJGMedian
NameTWFG Neptune .Willis T.Marsh & .Aon Arthur J. 
Mkt Price28.2823.74316.53183.87344.45245.36214.62
Mkt Cap0.4-31.090.374.362.962.9
Rev LTM207-9,80726,45317,02812,47112,471
Op Inc LTM16-2,2686,1464,4542,6262,626
FCF LTM-2-1,3814,8253,0401,9721,972
FCF 3Y Avg--1,1764,0572,9561,9382,447
CFO LTM49-1,6035,0873,2842,1202,120
CFO 3Y Avg--1,4124,3983,1992,1032,651

Growth & Margins

TWFGNPWTWMMCAONAJGMedian
NameTWFG Neptune .Willis T.Marsh & .Aon Arthur J. 
Rev Chg LTM14.9%--0.0%10.5%14.1%13.8%13.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--3.5%8.3%11.1%13.3%9.7%
Rev Chg Q12.7%--0.0%11.5%7.4%16.0%11.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.3%--0.0%2.5%1.6%3.7%2.5%
Op Mgn LTM7.6%-23.1%23.2%26.2%21.1%23.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg--21.0%23.1%27.1%19.7%22.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.7%-0.6%-0.3%0.5%0.4%0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM23.4%-16.3%19.2%19.3%17.0%19.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg--14.6%18.1%21.5%19.4%18.8%
FCF/Rev LTM-1.2%-14.1%18.2%17.9%15.8%15.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg--12.2%16.7%19.9%17.8%17.3%

Valuation

TWFGNPWTWMMCAONAJGMedian
NameTWFG Neptune .Willis T.Marsh & .Aon Arthur J. 
Mkt Cap0.4-31.090.374.362.962.9
P/S2.5-3.53.74.56.63.7
P/EBIT15.2-11.415.318.031.715.3
P/E86.4-16.024.028.350.028.3
P/CFO10.7-21.119.523.438.721.1
Total Yield1.2%-7.0%5.8%4.3%2.4%4.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%-0.8%1.7%0.8%0.4%0.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--4.1%4.0%4.1%3.2%4.1%
D/E0.0-0.20.20.20.20.2
Net D/E-0.3-0.10.20.1-0.00.1

Returns

TWFGNPWTWMMCAONAJGMedian
NameTWFG Neptune .Willis T.Marsh & .Aon Arthur J. 
1M Rtn17.1%-6.0%0.8%3.8%1.4%1.0%1.2%
3M Rtn5.5%-25.8%-3.0%-10.0%-7.7%-19.2%-8.9%
6M Rtn-19.6%-25.8%2.9%-20.2%-7.2%-26.7%-19.9%
12M Rtn-19.1%-25.8%-2.7%-18.8%-9.9%-20.2%-19.0%
3Y Rtn--25.8%32.9%10.6%15.0%25.0%15.0%
1M Excs Rtn17.2%-6.0%0.8%3.8%1.4%1.0%1.2%
3M Excs Rtn1.3%-31.2%-9.1%-15.7%-12.9%-23.6%-14.3%
6M Excs Rtn-34.3%-40.5%-11.8%-34.9%-21.9%-41.5%-34.6%
12M Excs Rtn-33.5%-39.4%-14.1%-33.5%-24.9%-34.3%-33.5%
3Y Excs Rtn--98.6%-35.4%-58.6%-57.2%-44.4%-57.2%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity385,340
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-27.2%
Average Daily Volume104,042
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.70
Basic Shares Quantity14,904,083
Short % of Basic Shares2.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025813202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025513202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024327202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241113202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024830202410-Q 6/30/2024
123120237192024424B4 12/31/2023