Goosehead Insurance (GSHD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $76.03 | Market Cap: $1.9 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Insurance Brokers
Goosehead Insurance (GSHD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $76.03Market Cap: $1.9 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Insurance Brokers
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -41% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 26x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 23x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 62x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -41% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Digital Insurance Platforms, and Online Insurance Marketplaces. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -41% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Digital Insurance Platforms, and Online Insurance Marketplaces. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -41% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 26x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 23x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 62x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GSHD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) stock moved by -10.4% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Goosehead Insurance reported Q3 2025 revenues of $90.4 million, missing analyst estimates of $94.0 million by approximately 3.8%.
2. The company experienced a slight contraction in profitability, with the Adjusted EBITDA margin decreasing to 33% from 34% in the prior-year period.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GSHD Return | 197% | 6% | -74% | 121% | 41% | -25% | 94% |
| Peers Return | -8% | 28% | 13% | 29% | 18% | 29% | 162% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GSHD Win Rate | 83% | 42% | 17% | 83% | 50% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 57% | 48% | 58% | 52% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GSHD Max Drawdown | -8% | -34% | -77% | -7% | -30% | -36% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -51% | -12% | -19% | -16% | -10% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MCY, AGO, HCC, BHF, GNW. See GSHD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GSHD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -83.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 502.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 56 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -39.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 181 days | 120 days |
Compare to MCY, AGO, HCC, BHF, GNW
In The Past
Goosehead Insurance's stock fell -83.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/11/2021. A -83.4% loss requires a 502.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GSHD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Goosehead Insurance
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 79.41 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.0 |
| Rev LTM | 3,523 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7 |
| FCF LTM | 147 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 51 |
| CFO LTM | 218 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 268 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 16.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | -0.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.0 |
| P/S | 1.8 |
| P/EBIT | 7.4 |
| P/E | 13.8 |
| P/CFO | 15.6 |
| Total Yield | 7.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | -0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 15.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 13.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 19.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 16.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 82.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 15.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 4.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 0.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 17.7% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Insurance Brokers Resources |
| Insurance Business America |
| A.M. Best |
| National Underwriter |
| Insurance News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |