Tearsheet

Goosehead Insurance (GSHD)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $76.03 | Market Cap: $1.9 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Insurance Brokers

Goosehead Insurance (GSHD)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $76.03
Market Cap: $1.9 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Insurance Brokers

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -41%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 26x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 23x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 62x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -41%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 48%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Digital Insurance Platforms, and Online Insurance Marketplaces.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -41%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 48%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Digital Insurance Platforms, and Online Insurance Marketplaces.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -41%
6 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
7 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 26x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 23x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 62x
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

GSHD Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) stock moved by -10.4% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Goosehead Insurance reported Q3 2025 revenues of $90.4 million, missing analyst estimates of $94.0 million by approximately 3.8%.

2. The company experienced a slight contraction in profitability, with the Adjusted EBITDA margin decreasing to 33% from 34% in the prior-year period.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
GSHD Return197%6%-74%121%41%-25%94%
Peers Return-8%28%13%29%18%29%162%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GSHD Win Rate83%42%17%83%50%30% 
Peers Win Rate52%57%48%58%52%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GSHD Max Drawdown-8%-34%-77%-7%-30%-36% 
Peers Max Drawdown-51%-12%-19%-16%-10%-18% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MCY, AGO, HCC, BHF, GNW. See GSHD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventGSHDS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-83.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven502.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-37.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven60.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven56 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-39.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven65.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven181 days120 days

Compare to MCY, AGO, HCC, BHF, GNW


In The Past

Goosehead Insurance's stock fell -83.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/11/2021. A -83.4% loss requires a 502.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Goosehead Insurance (GSHD)

Better Bets than Goosehead Insurance (GSHD)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to GSHD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Goosehead Insurance

Peers to compare with:

Financials

GSHDMCYAGOHCCBHFGNWMedian
NameGoosehea.Mercury .Assured .Warrior .Brightho.Genworth. 
Mkt Price75.9190.5188.8382.9265.598.6879.41
Mkt Cap1.95.04.24.43.83.64.0
Rev LTM3545,8239541,2246,1507,0713,523
Op Inc LTM---7--7
FCF LTM66991266-15951228147
FCF 3Y Avg527403249-49047951
CFO LTM811,04826620751228218
CFO 3Y Avg6578632472-490479268

Growth & Margins

GSHDMCYAGOHCCBHFGNWMedian
NameGoosehea.Mercury .Assured .Warrior .Brightho.Genworth. 
Rev Chg LTM24.8%6.2%2.5%-23.1%61.5%-2.4%4.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg22.9%18.4%25.8%-11.8%15.2%-1.3%16.8%
Rev Chg Q15.9%3.6%-21.0%0.3%-40.6%-0.3%-0.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.6%0.9%-5.3%0.1%-8.1%-0.1%-0.0%
Op Mgn LTM---0.6%--0.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg---19.3%--19.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM----1.5%---1.5%
CFO/Rev LTM22.9%18.0%27.9%16.9%0.8%3.2%17.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg21.4%14.4%4.7%30.4%-20.7%6.6%10.5%
FCF/Rev LTM18.6%17.0%27.9%-13.0%0.8%3.2%10.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg17.4%13.5%4.7%1.9%-20.7%6.6%5.6%

Valuation

GSHDMCYAGOHCCBHFGNWMedian
NameGoosehea.Mercury .Assured .Warrior .Brightho.Genworth. 
Mkt Cap1.95.04.24.43.83.64.0
P/S5.30.84.22.70.50.51.8
P/EBIT26.48.36.5116.93.45.67.4
P/E61.910.710.095.24.617.013.8
P/CFO23.14.515.116.160.514.115.6
Total Yield1.6%10.1%10.0%1.6%21.5%5.9%7.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.7%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.7%21.9%0.3%2.1%-14.9%19.1%2.4%
D/E0.20.10.40.11.00.50.3
Net D/E0.2-0.2-0.2-0.0-27.3-1.9-0.2

Returns

GSHDMCYAGOHCCBHFGNWMedian
NameGoosehea.Mercury .Assured .Warrior .Brightho.Genworth. 
1M Rtn12.4%18.7%9.6%19.3%22.4%2.7%15.6%
3M Rtn-8.4%18.0%9.1%49.0%46.8%1.5%13.5%
6M Rtn-31.3%43.1%6.0%75.5%12.9%25.1%19.0%
12M Rtn-36.2%20.0%-2.2%19.5%29.1%13.6%16.5%
3Y Rtn96.3%169.5%40.8%123.3%19.2%68.9%82.6%
1M Excs Rtn12.4%18.8%9.6%19.4%22.5%2.8%15.6%
3M Excs Rtn-15.2%9.4%2.0%45.2%42.9%-5.1%5.7%
6M Excs Rtn-46.0%28.4%-8.7%60.8%-1.8%10.4%4.3%
12M Excs Rtn-50.0%3.3%-16.8%5.0%11.9%-2.3%0.5%
3Y Excs Rtn29.9%101.4%-26.9%80.6%-51.4%5.4%17.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Insurance distribution261    
Single Segment 209151  
Corporate Channel   6143
Franchise Channel   5635
Total26120915111777


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,726,776
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202514.0%
Average Daily Volume280,945
Days-to-Cover Short Interest9.71
Basic Shares Quantity25,149,000
Short % of Basic Shares10.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251023202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025724202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025424202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024303202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241024202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024725202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023428202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021