Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -30%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -138%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -171%
Penny stock
Mkt Price is 0.5
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Materials, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, and Sustainable Packaging Materials.
  Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -128 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.1%
2   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -16%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -14%
3   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.3%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.1%
4   Key risks
TSE key risks include [1] excessive indebtedness and potential bankruptcy risk, Show more.
0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -30%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Materials, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, and Sustainable Packaging Materials.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -138%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -171%
3 Penny stock
Mkt Price is 0.5
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -128 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.1%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -16%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -14%
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.3%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.1%
7 Key risks
TSE key risks include [1] excessive indebtedness and potential bankruptcy risk, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TSE Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Trinseo's stock (TSE) experienced a significant decline of approximately 79.9% between August 31, 2025, and December 17, 2025, driven by several critical factors impacting its financial health and market standing.

1. Disappointing Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results. Trinseo reported a net loss of $110 million and an earnings per share (EPS) of -$3.05 for the third quarter of 2025, missing analysts' expectations of a -$2.01 EPS. Additionally, the company's revenue of $743 million fell short of the anticipated $791 million, and Adjusted EBITDA was significantly lower at $30 million compared to $66 million in the prior year. This performance underscored persistent challenges in its cyclical markets, including automotive, building and construction, and consumer durables, leading to a projected full-year net loss between $408 million and $418 million.

2. Suspension of Quarterly Dividend. In October 2025, Trinseo's Board of Directors voted to indefinitely suspend the company's quarterly dividend. This decision, part of strategic operational plans aimed at optimizing operations and enhancing cash flow, signaled a move to preserve capital amidst financial difficulties and likely negatively impacted investor confidence.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TSE Return47%3%-55%-62%-38%-89%-98%
Peers Return12%22%-19%20%-23%-35%-34%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%110%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TSE Win Rate67%42%25%33%42%25% 
Peers Win Rate65%55%52%45%38%37% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TSE Max Drawdown-60%-12%-65%-75%-76%-89% 
Peers Max Drawdown-54%-5%-31%-6%-27%-45% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LYB, DOW, CE, EMN, HUN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTSES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-92.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1251.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-60.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven154.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven242 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-67.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven204.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days

Compare to FUL, GEVO, FSI, LOOP, VRDE


In The Past

Trinseo's stock fell -92.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/12/2021. A -92.6% loss requires a 1251.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Trinseo (TSE)

Better Bets than Trinseo (TSE)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TSE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
42.2%42.2%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
42.2%42.2%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Trinseo

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TSELYBDOWCEEMNHUNMedian
NameTrinseo Lyondell.Dow Celanese Eastman .Huntsman  
Mkt Price0.4842.9822.8440.9563.659.9031.90
Mkt Cap0.113.816.34.57.31.75.9
Rev LTM3,13435,15440,9139,7109,0245,7809,367
Op Inc LTM-1281,5234728561,190-24664
FCF LTM-96463-1,1201,024395199297
FCF 3Y Avg-602,082903965511126707
CFO LTM-402,3571,5621,3881,0083661,198
CFO 3Y Avg153,8503,6451,4331,1953321,314

Growth & Margins

TSELYBDOWCEEMNHUNMedian
NameTrinseo Lyondell.Dow Celanese Eastman .Huntsman  
Rev Chg LTM-11.2%-6.3%-5.3%-7.3%-3.4%-3.5%-5.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-15.5%-12.9%-11.3%0.7%-5.9%-11.5%-11.4%
Rev Chg Q-14.3%-11.8%-8.3%-8.6%-10.6%-5.2%-9.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-3.8%-2.8%-2.2%-2.3%-2.8%-1.4%-2.6%
Op Mgn LTM-4.1%4.3%1.2%8.8%13.2%-0.4%2.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-4.4%6.9%3.5%9.5%12.6%1.2%5.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.4%-1.8%-0.5%-0.6%-1.2%-0.5%-0.6%
CFO/Rev LTM-1.3%6.7%3.8%14.3%11.2%6.3%6.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg0.2%9.9%8.3%13.9%12.9%5.5%9.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-3.1%1.3%-2.7%10.5%4.4%3.4%2.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-1.8%5.2%1.9%9.4%5.5%2.1%3.7%

Valuation

TSELYBDOWCEEMNHUNMedian
NameTrinseo Lyondell.Dow Celanese Eastman .Huntsman  
Mkt Cap0.113.816.34.57.31.75.9
P/S0.00.40.40.50.80.30.4
P/EBIT-27.5138.3-2.26.7-12.86.7
P/E-0.260.5-14.4-1.510.3-4.7-0.9
P/CFO-2.16.710.43.37.24.25.5
Total Yield-486.5%12.7%3.7%-65.0%12.3%-9.9%-3.1%
Dividend Yield0.6%11.1%10.6%1.9%2.6%11.3%6.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-7.2%1.2%11.8%5.3%5.7%5.7%
D/E-0.81.22.90.71.51.2
Net D/E-0.70.92.60.61.20.9

Returns

TSELYBDOWCEEMNHUNMedian
NameTrinseo Lyondell.Dow Celanese Eastman .Huntsman  
1M Rtn-50.4%-2.4%1.1%5.2%7.0%14.7%3.1%
3M Rtn-80.9%-16.0%-5.3%-9.8%-2.3%-8.4%-9.1%
6M Rtn-87.1%-24.0%-20.1%-24.7%-13.1%-3.3%-22.1%
12M Rtn-91.2%-36.8%-38.8%-39.8%-31.0%-43.7%-39.3%
3Y Rtn-97.8%-34.7%-45.2%-57.8%-13.1%-57.7%-51.4%
1M Excs Rtn-51.4%-3.4%0.1%4.2%6.0%13.8%2.1%
3M Excs Rtn-83.3%-20.4%-8.6%-12.2%-5.3%-6.2%-10.4%
6M Excs Rtn-100.7%-37.7%-33.8%-38.4%-26.8%-17.0%-35.7%
12M Excs Rtn-103.8%-50.4%-52.9%-52.8%-45.0%-56.8%-52.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-170.7%-108.2%-118.5%-130.9%-88.0%-131.6%-124.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Polymer Solutions1,576    
Engineered Materials1,1571,044755195210
Latex Binders9431,2561,183767903
Americas Styrenics0    
Corporate Unallocated0    
Feedstocks 248272166256
Plastics Solutions 1,3231,4989181,156
Polystyrene 1,0931,119699809
Synthetic Rubber    441
Total3,6754,9664,8282,7453,776


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,718,488
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202520.7%
Average Daily Volume569,648
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.77
Basic Shares Quantity36,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares7.6%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/2025-2.4%-15.1%-44.4%
8/6/2025-19.2%-1.6%-3.9%
5/7/2025-35.1%-43.4%-27.7%
2/12/20250.8%19.3%-10.5%
11/6/2024-16.0%-21.6%-2.4%
8/6/2024-4.0%0.0%43.0%
5/8/202410.4%0.3%-8.1%
2/12/2024-21.1%-26.8%-15.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive476
# Negative201718
Median Positive7.0%8.1%28.9%
Median Negative-5.1%-10.8%-10.8%
Max Positive10.4%19.3%43.0%
Max Negative-35.1%-43.4%-45.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231106202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021